War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Azuresun]

Don't mercenaries usually only turn on you when you fail to pay them? He's not in a position to realistically seize power so I'm not sure what his end game is.

Historically, relying on mercenaries is risky because if they realise you're relying on them, they might decide they can just attack you and get everything they were promised and then some more. Happened in the Thirty Years War, the Italian civil wars, and even in the twilight of the Roman empire, with the Goths.

For me, a REALLY telling thing is that the Botski Brigade is almost inactive on this matter. It suggests their handlers are hedging their bets and waiting to see who comes out on top.

[midnightblack]

I don't understand it, either. Maybe he's counting at the regular Russian military joining him or staying neutral... But he really doesn't have big chances at winning this. Not to mention, he doesn't seem to be making too many precautions against Russian secret services assassinating him... Could he simply have the big an ego?

Whatever happens, let's hope this whole situation causes enough chaos for the Ukrainian side to get some solid advantage.

The point I've heard from a local analyst and which makes sense to me is that Prigozhin himself remains simply a tool. But right now he's no longer Putin's tool, rather the tool of other nebulous characters around Putin (heads of secret service so on) that are dissatisfied with Putin's leadership and the fact that he is unwilling to let someone else take over. The info I'm seeing is that Prigozhin's men are close to Moscow, that they've been given no resistance and that the defenses in Moscow itself are pretty shabby and won't hold. This all sounds super bongo crazy to me, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Al Terego]

Think Somalia with nukes...

[Vekseid]

I don't understand it, either. Maybe he's counting at the regular Russian military joining him or staying neutral... But he really doesn't have big chances at winning this. Not to mention, he doesn't seem to be making too many precautions against Russian secret services assassinating him... Could he simply have the big an ego?

My guess is his Hail Mary pass to the Kremlin will fail... just like the drive to Kyiv did. Too much warning, too much preparation, too much city to control even if he 'succeeds'.

But he's taken the Southern Military District headquarters and Rostov-on-Don with apparently a single firefight and three downed helicopters. This isn't just any general he's holding hostage, he is holding the men in charge of Russia's most experienced, best trained, best equipped, and most experienced forces.

Russia does not possess the military capability to remove Prigozhin from Rostov. Russia would have to do so without the vast majority of its best assets. And some of what they do have is defecting. Though again, this is also the man in charge of Russia's largest disinformation operation, so it's hard to know what's what, there.

Kadyrov is totally going to confront him. Written quite the concerned letter. I'm sure we'll see the TikTok brigade live up to its moniker before fucking off. They're outnumbered, outgunned, outexperienced.

As for assassination... this has been coordinated with 25,000 troops, likely being planned for months by this point. Nothing can be ruled out but assassinating people is not always a trivial prospect.

Whatever happens, let's hope this whole situation causes enough chaos for the Ukrainian side to get some solid advantage.

We can hope. Prigozhin has been big on making sure the war versus Ukraine continues... but this cannot be good for Russian morale.

[midnightblack]

Seems like Prig called things off. Probably they've been negotiating hard throughout the day. Will be interesting to see what comes out of it. I'd say Putin gave in at least in part to whatever demands were made.

[Deamonbane]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-his-mercenaries-headed-moscow-take-army-leadership-2023-06-24/

In an audio message, Prigozhin said the fighters would return to base because of the risk of blood being spilled.

A deal to halt further movement of Wagner fighters across Russia in return for guarantees of safety for the rebels was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, his office said.

[Numerion]

There are some rumors about shoigu stepping down, maybe thats what calmed him down.

[Vekseid]

Pulling back from Moscow is probably the smart move.

I will be surprised if Prigozhin gives up control of Rostov.

[Norwegian One]

There is talk of Prigozhin moving to Belarus as part of a deal brokered by Lukashenko, and that he and the Wagner group will not be prosecuted for their attempted rebellion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[Chulanowa]

Think Somalia with nukes...

As far as I can tell, that's the goal of a lot of people. There's these weird fantasies on social media of carving the Russian Federation up into like fifty ethnostates and... man, some people need to fantasize less and think more.

[Azuresun]

As far as I can tell, that's the goal of a lot of people. There's these weird fantasies on social media of carving the Russian Federation up into like fifty ethnostates and... man, some people need to fantasize less and think more.

Thing is, it's becoming increasingly hard to believe that would be worse than what we've got right now. We're talking about a country that routinely threatens the reckless use of nuclear weapons every time they don't get what they want, and nobody can say for sure that Putin won't actually use them on Ukraine in an act of sheer spite.

At this point, Russia, as it is now, has proven itself a problem child that will never allow its neighbours to live in peace without military force.

[Vekseid]

No ethnostate would be allowed to leave the Federation with nukes. No feasible ethnostate has nukes stationed within its borders.

The concern would be the precedent set if Prigozhin maintains control over Restov. My concern is it would set off a cascade of warlords setting up their own fiefdoms, some potentially commandeering nuclear arsenals.

Probably not the first... several, if it even makes it that far. If this goes long enough someone is going to be dumb enough to cross that line.

[Beorning]

Well, Prigozhin left Rostov on Saturday evening and hasn't been seen since. Some people wonder if he's made it to Belarus alive... although BBC claims he just posted a new video online?

Whatever his fate, this aborted raid of his managed to create a really big embarrassment for Putin. His regime really is falling apart... and even the ordinary Russians probably see it by now.

On more alarming note: Ukrainian authorities claim that Russians have planted bombs at the water reservoir of Zaporozhia Nuclear Plant. And they are fully ready to blow it up and cause a nuclear meltdown...     

... I know this might be an emotional reaction on my part, but I wonder if this is the point where NATO should just say "Enough is enough" and intervene directly? How much more of this barbarity are we going to tolerate?

[Oniya]

... I know this might be an emotional reaction on my part, but I wonder if this is the point where NATO should just say "Enough is enough" and intervene directly? How much more of this barbarity are we going to tolerate?

I'm not sure if you've seen it, but there's a separate thread where Veks posted about the possibility of that sort of thing (deliberate nuclear contamination) triggering an Article V response.

Short-short version:  This sort of threat would imply not only a threat to Ukraine, but (whether nuclear weapons or sabotage of the reactor) a fallout threat to surrounding areas, including NATO members - hence, Article V would apply.  NATO leadership has apparently been discussing this since the last time the ZNPP was at risk.

[Vekseid]

Prigozhin made a speech and Putin responded a few hours later.

Something I've noticed is neither the ultra-nationalists who supported Putin nor those who were behind Prigozhin seem particularly happy. 'Furious' seems more like it. Putin supporters feel betrayed that Prigozhin has been 'forgiven' for treason. Prigozhin supporters are furious for him failing to follow through.

Meanwhile the ISW reports he only had about a tenth of his claimed support. And yet, with this, he took Rostov-on-Don and made a thunder run nearly to Moscow.

This may explain why he gave up, but also highlights how incredibly weak Russia is right now. Decades of certain special definitions of 'our truth' combined with depoliticizing the populace has made a nation not terribly invested in its own governance. Especially in the middle of a war that is on the surface 'popular', but it seems much if not most of the population understands its costs.

Meanwhile, apparently the US learned of this a day before Putin did.

And though he failed, Prighozhin is effectively getting away with this.

'Unpunished evil returns'. Applied to Russia, from the lack of response to its 2014 invasion. But I think it also applies to Russia internally.

All you need is to be successful enough, and Putin will be too timid to respond. If you're too scary for the Tiktok brigade, he can't dislodge you. The only actual threat he can make, for now, is missile attacks on civilians.

So, anyone who thinks they can pull together this level of support may as well try. Why not?

[Chulanowa]

On more alarming note: Ukrainian authorities claim that Russians have planted bombs at the water reservoir of Zaporozhia Nuclear Plant. And they are fully ready to blow it up and cause a nuclear meltdown...     

... I know this might be an emotional reaction on my part, but I wonder if this is the point where NATO should just say "Enough is enough" and intervene directly? How much more of this barbarity are we going to tolerate?

"Ukraine Authorities" say a lot of things. Kiev has a vested interest in lying to you to garner support. Does that mean they are lying? I dunno, but it does mean you should be very critical. A good rule of thumb is if a story portrays one side as being absurdly, stupidly, cartoonishly evil, you're probably being lied to by the other side. Now sometimes an actor does act in such a cartoonishly evil way - but generally they are happy to admit to doing so, and the action is internally consistent with their stated agendas and goals (the Nazis were quite proud of Dachau, for instance.)

So let's think. Russia's controlled this plant since October, yes? Considers it property of ROSTOM, and part of Russia's brand new shiny "Zaporozhe Oblast," correct? They've has it in cold shutdown for most of that time (save for reactor 5, which is in hot shutdown to maintain plant functions.) It obviously considers this plant a valuable resource of integral Russian territory, and has taken measures to minimize the risk it poses for being in a war zone. One also assumes Russia understands well enough that if this thing goes to hell, that fallout is mostly going to go into Russia and Ukrainian territory that Russia claims. So what would Russia gain from causing such a meltdown? Literally nothing. It's all loss, from destroying "their" own plant, to poisoning themselves, to possibly triggering a full NATO response. Even if Russia were on the verge of losing control of the place (and so far as I'm aware, they're not) I think we can all be reasonably certain there'd be some transfer to the IAEA (who still have access, fwiw) or something as they remove from the area because, well, anything else is basically suicidal.

Would an entirely self-contradictory, self-destructive act make any sense at all? Does believing in the story require that the Russian forces be useless, brainless goons incapable of any reasoning thought, to the point that they don't even understand their own goals? Is the strongest explanation "petty spite" or "inherent degeneracy" or some other irrational angle? Then what you're looking at is probably not true.

[Skyguy]

*Looks at the ruined dam and flooded Dnipro river. Recalls the Russians actively shelling the plant while it was in operation. Remembers Russia wasting valuable cruise and ballistic missiles on a half assed terror bombing campaign because Putin got his fee fees hurt.* You have vastly more faith in Russia being a completely rational actor than I do at this point. Russia has done an amazing amount of cartoonishly evil and stupid shit so far in this war. While causing a meltdown would certainly top the list of stupid shit they’ve done this war it’s not outside the realm of possibility. It’s also worth discussing that historically since the time of the Mongol invasions, it’s been Russian SOP to scorched earth their own lands to slow down invaders. You don’t get much more scorched earth than intentionally melting down a nuclear power station.

First off, we’re not talking about Chernobyl. We’d be looking more like a Three Mile Island. The ZNPP reactors are the more western style VVER PWR reactors with proper containment buildings. Lose cooling on the cores and they will heat up. Eventually you’ll slag the cores. Terminal for the plant but we turned TMI-2’s core into a liquid puddle in the bottom of containment and that was the extent of it. A ruined reactor but with proper containment, and a non-suicidal design unlike an RBMK, not a disaster for anyone but the rate payers.

The bigger danger would be the spent fuel pool. Without cooling it will slowly heat up and eventually start to boil off. Go long enough and the pool goes dry and the spent fuel liquifies itself. The good news, they’re not contained so you wouldn’t build up hydrogen and have an explosion, hurray. The bad news, liquified fuel bundles. You’d definitely wind up with contamination and a problem but we’re not gonna see a Chernobyl style plume of radiation covering Europe.

There’s a very good reason Kyiv makes these statements, it’s to draw attention and put pressure on Russia to NOT do something stupid, to get ahead of Russian disinfo attempts by being the first to mention it. Remember the Russian ambassadors running around breathlessly trying to warn the west that the Ukrainians were preparing a dirty bomb? They’re looking to head that BS off at the pass by starting the narrative about the ZNPP that if something bad happens it’ll be Russia’s fault. The Ukrainians want ZNPP back, intact and operational when this is all over. It’s also why NATO has been rather public about discussions of radiation being a potential Article 5 trigger. It’s a way to tell the Russians to fucking behave.

[Al Terego]

Does anyone want to speculate how triggering Article 5 against a country with the largest nuclear stockpile will play out?

[Beorning]

You have vastly more faith in Russia being a completely rational actor than I do at this point. Russia has done an amazing amount of cartoonishly evil and stupid shit so far in this war.

And not only during this war, but during all of Putin's reign...

Chula, seriously, why is it so hard to grasp that Putin's regime really *is* what you'd call "cartoonishly evil"? And that "petty spite" and fanaticism *are* a motivating factor for these people?

We're talking about a regime that sponsored Internet troll farms spreading worldwide misinformation just to weaken other countries. We're talking about a regime that used said trolls to spread lies about the non-Russian Covid vaccines not being effective *in the midst of a deadly global pandemic*. We're talking about a regime that was engaged in genocide ever since Putin came into power. We're talking about a regime that corrupted the Russian Orthodox Church so much that priests there are now being branded as literal heretics for daring to talk about peace...

(and, as for "petty spite"... did you know that Russian government has not released the wreckage of the Polish presidential plane even though over 13 years passed since the Smoleńsk disaster? And that they are holding to that wreckage, claiming that they are still conducting some sort of "investigation"? Even though they are *not* investigating anything and the Polish government repeatedly asked them to finally return the wreckage..? How's that for "petty spite" and doing things just to mess with other countries?)

Really... "cartoonishly evil" regimes did exist in history and they do exist now. And Putin's regime is one of them.

Drat, Chula, you really made me angry...

[Skyguy]

Kidnapping children, murdering civilians, having their own troops dig trenches in the Red fucking Forest, shooting down MH17, their laughable referendums, all the war crimes against civilians.

[Norwegian One]

Just to add to the «cartoonishly evil» bingo card;

- Poisoning or pushing opposition leaders or defectors out of windows
- Letting their premier PMC recruit convicts from Russian prisons, only to send them to their deaths in human wave attacks
- Repeated and indiscriminate missile attacks against civilian targets

[GloomCookie]

Does anyone want to speculate how triggering Article 5 against a country with the largest nuclear stockpile will play out?

I know everyone says Russia is still a nuclear power but I can't help but question that some days. Russia doesn't act like a nuclear power. They don't have that confidence that they know their ballistic weaponry is capable of doing the job, they act like they're worried they might have someone call their bluff. That all their nuclear stockpiles either fizzled years ago or the parts got irreparably damaged in the 30+ years since the USSR collapsed. I can only hope I'm wrong but it certainly feels that way.

[Rinzler]

Just to add to the «cartoonishly evil» bingo card;

- Poisoning or pushing opposition leaders or defectors out of windows
- Letting their premier PMC recruit convicts from Russian prisons, only to send them to their deaths in human wave attacks
- Repeated and indiscriminate missile attacks against civilian targets

Adding further to that card -

- Poisoning Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive material in the heart of London.

- Deploying a nerve agent in Salisbury to kill the Skripals. Fortunately, the Skripals survived. Unfortunately, a collateral victim - Dawn Sturgess - did not.

Some have speculated that the British government's enthusiasm for arming Ukraine in its struggle against Russia might have an element of 'settling scores'. Have to admit, it's not an idea I can wholeheartedly dismiss.

[Vekseid]

I've just sortof accepted Chula is a tankie and for some reason this means supporting Russia even though it's a cartoon mafia state. I think it's more about 'the West is always wrong' than Russia being right, per se. Still.

Does anyone want to speculate how triggering Article 5 against a country with the largest nuclear stockpile will play out?

First, the purpose of war is to force a political objective against an otherwise unwilling power. For NATO involvement, we need to agree what these will be.

A reasonable guess of demands, in order of precedence:

1) The complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, and the formal de-annexation, by Russia, of all territories they have claimed. Depending on how things have progressed to this point, Georgia might be included in these demands.

This will be non-negotiable. This will be stated as non-negotiable.

2) The repatriation of all abducted Ukrainian citizens.

3) For Russia to pay reparations, in land or treasure, for the damage they have done to Ukraine.



I think if article 5 is triggered there would be a very real chance of an immediate surrender, provided 2 & 3 are withdrawn as demands. This is the best deal Russia can hope to receive.

There is no reality in which Russia comes out stronger than immediately surrendering.

Let's assume Putin or whomever is leading Russia is deluded or otherwise believes they cannot retain power if they do not cave to ultranationalist demands. NATO's demands are not met by some specified date, war with Russia begins.

The exact date will depend on when air assets are in place to enforce a no-fly zone over a considerable portion of Europe. This will depend on how telegraphed whatever provoked this response is.

Russia's surface fleet might try to do something in the mean time... on the other hand they might just scuttle their ships or do whatever they can to surrender.

One way or another Russia will no longer have any surface vessels.

What follows will be a ~2 month campaign of removing Russia's ability to exert control over the air. Deleting air defense systems (SEAD/DEAD) and shooting down anything (Belo)Russian that flies.

CSTO triggers article 4. How I imagine it going down:

- Armenia openly tells Russia to fuck off. Assuming they haven't left already.
- Belarus is going to be forced to join, on pain of "Suddenly without nukes against a NATO that is tired of your bullshit."
- The central Asian states will sit this one out.

Iran might get ordered to stop supplying Russia or have its facilities targeted. Alternately, the facilities might get removed without said warning.

Russia will fully mobilize into a wartime economy, with a full draft. You either produce for the state, or fight for the state.

NATO nations will begin more active production scaling programs.

After NATO has firmly established air supremacy, they have a habit of enforcing no fly zones on land targets. Like trains, train stations, and bridges that carry trains. Ukraine will likely recover most pre-2022 territory and much of the Donbass during this period.

I suspect Belarus will also collapse during this period. It's really hard to suppress a rebellion when God is overhead smiting every mobile machine you control. About the only thing I could think that could happen here is if Lukashenko wants to nuke Minsk in retribution. However:

1) He would have to be willing, and even ignoring the morality of it, he'd be a pariah in countries that might otherwise accept him.

2) Russia would have to be willing.

3) The missile would have to reach its target. Part of me suspects the reason Putin lent them to Belarus is he knows they are useless against American defenses.

4) The missile would have to actually detonate. If these are uranium devices, sure. Otherwise, this will depend on the maintenance of a nation notorious for skimping on it, for some of the most maintenance-heavy devices humans have ever produced. Still, half the Russian military budget goes to their missiles. It's never a good idea to assume a nuke won't work.

Eventually Crimea is retaken, and NATO and allied forces will begin slow salami-slicing of Russian territory.  "We're going to take Saint Petersburg in two days."

NATO will be very explicit about each and every offensive action it takes, where and when. To present itself as something Russia does not have the physical capability to deny.



I think the most likely scenario for nuclear escalation begins with retaking Crimea, and slowly builds from there.

Russia would first raise its nuclear readiness. Not just claim to. This is a fair amount of work.

Beginning about here, the US and/or UK may respond. Russia has decided to seriously consider nuclear escalation, and NATO nations raise readiness accordingly.

Russia would begin with tactical nuclear strikes in 'their own' territory, possibly including Crimea.

I think the US response to this would be a vicious one.

Either a conventional rain of hell on military and political targets in Moscow, or nuclear bunker-busters.

No one wants a 'nukes mean you get your way' scenario.



If it becomes apparent Russia will respond to this strategically, the US will try to neutralize all Russian missiles before they can launch.

This isn't just a hypothesis, this is a declared capability and why Russia maintains such a large arsenal. If the US knows Russia is going to launch (and evidence is pretty good at this point the US would know well in advance), the US is going to try to make sure Russia launches as few missiles as it can.

This would involve a minimum of a couple hundred detonations. Potentially well over a thousand, but keep in mind Russia only has a few hundred strategic missiles.

Though some would be reserved for ensuring everyone responsible for making such a decision dies.

Of Russia's ~300 missiles, some number will be destroyed before they have a chance to launch.

Of the survivors, some number of crews will refuse to launch.

Of those who do, some number of missiles will fail to launch.

Of those that do launch, there will be an attempt to engage some of them before they leave the atmosphere.

China seems to think the US may be working on or already has a means to maneuver satellites into the path of an ICBM.

Failing that or something similar, however, perhaps one missile's worth of MIRV warheads could be shot down on reentry, optimistically. Maybe two by the time this scenario occurs.

After this, the absolute best-case scenario is the surviving warheads have been poorly maintained, and only the uranium devices properly detonate. These won't even be Hiroshima-scale detonations, but even the least 'dud' is going to look like Tianjin at an absolute minimum, with the added bonus of being intensely irradiating.

An actual thermonuclear detonation is not worth thinking about. The city is gone, surrounded by human and ecological misery.

What happens next is going to depend on how successful the US was in exterminating Russian nuclear assets, and if this failed, to what degree along with how accurate 'nuclear winter' predictions are. US detonations won't drive it as the US isn't targeting cities, forest fires don't send soot high enough, and a lot of detonations will be underground.

Nonetheless, Russia will be at the complete mercy of its neighbors, and cease to exist as a power.

I don't think Russia escalating to strategic nukes is a very likely scenario so long as Russia remains a centralized state. Up until this point, the NATO position can be Russia can continue to exist as a state under its current leadership. For some reason they tend to value their own lives quite a bit more than those of their subjects.

If Russia beings to fragment, things become unpredictable quickly. The last thing we'd want is some 'true believer' getting hold of them.

[Al Terego]

I know everyone says Russia is still a nuclear power but I can't help but question that some days. Russia doesn't act like a nuclear power. They don't have that confidence that they know their ballistic weaponry is capable of doing the job, they act like they're worried they might have someone call their bluff. That all their nuclear stockpiles either fizzled years ago or the parts got irreparably damaged in the 30+ years since the USSR collapsed. I can only hope I'm wrong but it certainly feels that way.

I don't believe the West is willing to gamble on it.

To Veks:

You keep saying "Russia".  Putin does not care about Russia if he cannot rule it.