War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[ToWriterAndWander]

A pretext for a planned assassination attempt on Zelenski?

Russia has tried several times to assassinate him - more so during the first few months of the war.

It screams of false flag attack. Wouldn't be the first time Putin has done that to 'justify' a war in the eyes of the Russian people. A bit odd timing for this one, given we're a year into this war already.

Also, the explosion was tiny and on top of the dome. Why would you target the top of one of the domes with such a small explosive if you were trying to kill Putin? He isn't exactly sitting on the top. So extreme minimal damage on the Kremlin from the attack.

[Al Terego]

The narrative from the Kremlin is "we reserve the right to retaliate", which to me sounds like a pretext to to unleash the next atrocity on civilian population.
Like this for example.

[Azuresun]

Every time I get close to convincing myself that people are basically good and decent, comes something like this proving humans are shit.

That kind of cynicism is easy, lazy, and does a gross disservice to the people who are working to relieve the suffering of the Ukranian people and make sure Putin and his mob gets held to account. It's also the sort of aimlessly cynical "everyone's as bad as each other" line that Russian propaganda pushes HARD, with their endless whataboutisms. If humans are fundamentally awful, Russians cannot be judged for acting like savages--how convenient.

[GloomCookie]

I had a big post typed up but I'm going to just do a quick and simple one instead.

Russia is a bully, but there are a lot of good, innocent people who are doing their best for the innocent victims in this entire conflict. If people were genuinely horrible, we wouldn't have doctors, nurses, teachers, and everyone else who helps make society what it is. We'd just descend into anarchy and chaos. People can indeed be selfish and cruel, but for every 1 selfish and cruel person, there are at least 10 to 100 people who aren't, who build people up instead of tearing them down.

You only hear about the worst cases because that's what makes headlines. Don't fall for it. Totalitarian governments want to paint themselves as either pure and innocent, or that their enemies are just as bad so you're lucky to have these particular bad people on your side. Don't fall for it. I maintain that all people have some good in them, even the worst people. What matters is what a person does, and if they let their good or evil sides win, and most people let the good win.

[Al Terego]

Thank you GloomCookie.  I needed that.
My brain sometimes segfaults when exposed to senseless violence and gratuitous cruelty.

[Skyguy]

With respect to the Kremlin drone attack. Perun pointed out something very insightful. The SBU does nothing small. A DJ Mavic with a hand grenade ducked taped to it isn’t their style.

The Ukrainians are getting set for a counter-offensive to no one’s surprise. Even if everyone and their brother wasn’t talking about it there’s no doubt they’d be getting set for one. They’re not about to settle for a stalemate, they want the Russians gone, and after the Russian winter offensive turned out to be a wet fart that only proved they hadn’t learned anything in the last year, there’s no reason Ukraine has to hold back. The long range strikes at fuel storage and ammo are classic battlefield shaping moves to get things softened up. We saw the same thing pre Kherson and Kharkiv (I simply adore the Ukrainian obsession with the letter K).

Notably though… the Russians aren’t doing anything about it. No cruise missile barrages, air campaign, spoiling attacks, new fronts, nothing. They’ve been oddly quiet. Seemingly content with grinding trench warfare and seeing how many Russian widows they can make at Bahkmut. Instead we’ve seen weird signs. Wagner’s spat with the MOD continuing and them threatening to pull out of Bahkmut to be replaced by Kadyrov’s TikTok brigade. The government sending instructions to state run propaganda… sorry, media outlets to start hyping up the Ukrainians so that if we see Kharkiv 2, Thunder Run Boogaloo it doesn’t look like they’re getting their asses handed to them.

AGAIN

On a daily basis their position is getting worse as they burn through their old Soviet stocks and have to rely on more and more antiquated systems to plug capability gaps or reduce tempo. Remember the cruise missile and drone waves Ukraine was dealing with late last year and early this one? They can’t afford to hurl cruise missiles into apartment buildings now because they need to hold them for better targets. Never mind that their biggest problem isn’t gear related, but that the people leading their military at every level are utterly incompetent. The most well run military maneuver of their entire campaign was the orderly withdrawal from Kherson and they shitcanned the guy who managed to pull that off. And I don’t just mean those chucklefucks Shoigu and Gerasimov, their officer corps top to bottom are window licking buffoons.

Worse, Ukraine’s capabilities are improving. They’re running out of old Warsaw Block gear but it’s getting replaced with new NATO spec stuff. It’s not perfect, the pipelines aren’t as unconstrained as they should be (We’ve literally got thousands of Abrams we don’t even want. Put them on a boat already.) but on a day to day basis the Ukrainian material situation is getting better.

So what’s the Russian plan for winning this? Are they seriously hoping to just hunker down, slow the Ukrainians and hope the West gets bored and tries to force the Ukrainians to sue for peace? If it is that’s a pretty shit plan even by Russian standards and they ran the Kyiv offensive so the bar is pretty high. The amount of cash it’s requiring to teabag the Russians is couch cushion money for the US DOD. Just to get to do a live fire test of a Patriot vs. a Kinzal in a real world scenario is probably worth at least a half billion and that’s not counting the pure meme value of getting to watch the Russian wunderwaffen get aced by a two generation old SAM. Never mind all the other Russian kit we’ve been picking up, or the fact that we’ve had every sensor system in Europe pointed at the Russians documenting every aspect of how their military functions, or fails to, letting NATO rewrite the “How to Murder Russians 101,” manual in detail. Then there’s the chilling effect that seeing the US and Western Europe aid a small democratic nation seeking closer ties to the west being attacked by a larger autocratic neighbor man what other large “communist” country has someone like that *COUGH*TAIWAN*COUGH*. No one’s getting tired of Ukraine. If anything, things are ramping up. Where it was Stingers, NLAWs, and Javelins it’s now Patriots, Abrams, Challenger, and Leopard. Bradley’s and HARMs instead of Hummers. The discussion about jets is gaining momentum and I suspect we’ll see an F-16 in Ukrainian digital camo by the end of the year.

The logical thing to do would be to start looking for a way out, seriously start negotiating, but then they had their idiotic referendum that declared the occupied oblasts to be Russia right before they lost a huge chunk of that territory. Their domestic posturing is only making it harder to get out of this disaster and committing them to lose even more. It makes me think more and more that Putin is far more worried about domestic insurrection than whatever Ukraine might do to them, and that the way this war ends may have less to do with Ukraine’s success on the battlefield and more on someone in the Kremlin with a Makarov.

[Sara Nilsson]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-victory-day-no-air-force-one-tank-ukraine-war-2023-5

So... Russia's victory parade wasn't.. very impressive.

No planes.

And one (1) tank. A T-34. A lonely WW2 era tank. So clearly they are running real low on supplies. One would think they could at least go.. here is a fleet of the tanks that broke the nazis and just have a bunch of em. Nope.. one.. ONE tank!

[Skyguy]

I saw, it was so staggeringly pathetic. I can't believe they didn't use the Kremlin drone as pretext to cancel that embarrassment. They couldn't even drag some of the Armatas through. They just left that one poor T-34/85 (Which wasn't even made in Russia) to drive out all alone.

[Oniya]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-victory-day-no-air-force-one-tank-ukraine-war-2023-5

So... Russia's victory parade wasn't.. very impressive.

No planes.

And one (1) tank. A T-34. A lonely WW2 era tank. So clearly they are running real low on supplies. One would think they could at least go.. here is a fleet of the tanks that broke the nazis and just have a bunch of em. Nope.. one.. ONE tank!

I remember hearing a story about a parade done during WWII (Can't remember if it was supposedly the Germans or the Russians) where the tank route literally went out of sight and looped around to go by the viewing area several times to give the impression of a much larger force.  Not that this would be likely to work with the pervasiveness of camera-phones and such, but it would have been an attempt.

[Beorning]

Seeing that lone WW2-era tank really made me smile. Why? Because... just look at this opening of this Polish TV series from 1960s about WW2-era Polish tankmen (from the Russian front):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2lo8fsAOB4


That's the same type of tank!!!!  And that's the only thing they could muster for the parade...

Speaking of uplifting stories, here's something from Warsaw. We have a mausoleum of Soviet WW2 soldiers here - and the Russian ambassador planned to lay flowers there today. Considering the war, a lot of people disliked the idea of this kind of political spectacle by the Russians... Last year, the protest against it resulted in the ambassador being doused with red paint - a fact that was really exploited by the Russian propaganda. So, this year, the protesters did this instead:




Basically, they surrounded the whole mausoleum with a sea of small Ukrainian flags and other anti-war decorations. In result, the Russian ambassador had two options. He could either try sneaking past the decorations through the bushes at the side... or he could approach the mausoleum directly, *trampling over Ukrainian flags* in result. Neither of these options was media-friendly, obviously... so, the ambassador was forced to abort his plans. Ooooops.

[Skyguy]

Very slick way to hose the Russian ambassador. Personally I think the paint's perfectly valid. Russian state propaganda is completely unhinged from reality so they'll rant and rave regardless what you do.

[TheGlyphstone]

I don't think anyone cares what the Russian propaganda says. But non-violent humiliation does play better in the international lens - plus, doing paint two years in a row would be uncreative and tacky. Gotta keep your themes fresh.

[GloomCookie]

I don't think anyone cares what the Russian propaganda says. But non-violent humiliation does play better in the international lens - plus, doing paint two years in a row would be uncreative and tacky. Gotta keep your themes fresh.

A lot of people care about Russian propaganda, unfortunately they're the kind of unhinged people who believe it. And not just the Russian citizens, but those in the West who look at memes the Russians put out.

If you want an example, go look over on r/TheDeprogram, where they worship a podcast that paints America and Israel as evil. There are a ton of people out there who believe that the rebirth of the Soviet Empire is at hand, and that weak leadership by the West is going to one day collapse capitalism and that Putin is a great guy.

The long and short of it is that Russians are targeting the people who are dissatisfied with the West for admittedly very legitimate reasons and piles it on trying to show the Russians as superior because they're manly because they don't need the latest iPhone or central heating or food to be real men.

[Humble Scribe]

Instead we’ve seen weird signs. Wagner’s spat with the MOD continuing and them threatening to pull out of Bahkmut to be replaced by Kadyrov’s TikTok brigade.

I see that Prigozhin near as dammit called Putin a 'dickhead' in his latest broadside. I wouldn't be surprised if his headquarters was hit by a "Ukrainian" missile quite soon. He certainly needs to keep away from upper storey windows and balconies.

[GloomCookie]

I don't know if anyone watched it but Russia's Victory Day parade was so short, it's taking me longer to write about it than it took to conduct it.

Like, seriously, they zoomed in on a truck axle, as if that was just as impressive as the single T-34 they had on display. I watched the NAFO crew's take on it and they were flabbergasted by how short it was.

[Beorning]

Potentially important rumours from Belarus: some sources claim that Lukashenka was recently poisoned and is currently in coma...

I wonder if it's true - and, if so, what will this mean for the war.

[GloomCookie]

Most reports are that he's either confirmed to be out sick or that he's still only rumored to be sick.

Ultimately, I see the following scenarios coming from Putin:

Scenario 1: Putin continues the war as is and doesn't do anything regardless of what happens to Lukashenko. I imagine this would depend heavily on what becomes of Belarus and if Roman Golovchenko, current VP to Lukashenko, manages to remain in power.

Scenario 2: Putin uses Lukashenko's death as propaganda against the West (shocker I know) trying to convince the world that he was in fact poisoned, which is a claim already being levied in some circles. If that happens, expect a bunch of claims that the West is a threat to sovereign nations like Russia and Belarus and blah blah blah.

Scenario 3: Worst case for Putin is that Belarus descends into anarchy following Lakashenko's death. Golovchenko is unable to hold the country together, and civil war grips the country. Given that Russian supply lines are already stretched to their breaking point and beyond, not being able to funnel supplies south from Homiel and other nearby cities will cripple operations in those areas. Putin would then either need to pull back, which I don't see him doing, or expend more of his conscripts into Belarus to support Golovchenko and help hold Belarus stable enough to continue Russian military operations. This is Putin's worst case, since the country is already a powder keg politically from the 2020 elections that are believed to have been stolen by Lakashenko.

In the event that Scenario 3 comes about, I imagine that Russian troops will be heavily deployed in Minsk and other areas to hold the place together through martial law.

[Al Terego]

In the event that Scenario 3 comes about, I imagine that Russian troops will be heavily deployed in Minsk and other areas to hold the place together through martial law.

A revival of the Brezhnev Doctrine?

[Beorning]

Most reports are that he's either confirmed to be out sick or that he's still only rumored to be sick.

Ultimately, I see the following scenarios coming from Putin:

Scenario 1: Putin continues the war as is and doesn't do anything regardless of what happens to Lukashenko. I imagine this would depend heavily on what becomes of Belarus and if Roman Golovchenko, current VP to Lukashenko, manages to remain in power.

Scenario 2: Putin uses Lukashenko's death as propaganda against the West (shocker I know) trying to convince the world that he was in fact poisoned, which is a claim already being levied in some circles. If that happens, expect a bunch of claims that the West is a threat to sovereign nations like Russia and Belarus and blah blah blah.

Scenario 3: Worst case for Putin is that Belarus descends into anarchy following Lakashenko's death. Golovchenko is unable to hold the country together, and civil war grips the country. Given that Russian supply lines are already stretched to their breaking point and beyond, not being able to funnel supplies south from Homiel and other nearby cities will cripple operations in those areas. Putin would then either need to pull back, which I don't see him doing, or expend more of his conscripts into Belarus to support Golovchenko and help hold Belarus stable enough to continue Russian military operations. This is Putin's worst case, since the country is already a powder keg politically from the 2020 elections that are believed to have been stolen by Lakashenko.

In the event that Scenario 3 comes about, I imagine that Russian troops will be heavily deployed in Minsk and other areas to hold the place together through martial law.

Well, there's also Scenario 4: Lukashenka was poisoned by Putin - and Putin will use his death as an opportunity to install a more pliable puppet in Belarus. And will finally manage to get Belarus to join the war openly...

[TheGlyphstone]

That sounds like a variant of Option 3, if the political situation is already destabilizing. A foreign despot outright deposing the elected VP, after an election the citizens already believe was rigged...how could he pull that off without civil war?

[Oniya]

That sounds like a variant of Option 3, if the political situation is already destabilizing. A foreign despot outright deposing the elected VP, after an election the citizens already believe was rigged...how could he pull that off without civil war?

I don't know enough about Belarus to say, but - what are Golovchenko's views regarding the war in Ukraine and Putin in general?  Who's to say that any 'deposing' would be needed?

[Skyguy]

 My knowledge of things is surface at best but I believe that Lukashenko and his close ties to Russia are pretty wildly unpopular in Belarus. If he drops dead, fingers crossed, I don't think the Belarussians will be ok with second verse, same as the first, with the new VP.

If it was 2021, I’d expect the VP to try it though, confident that Russia would back him up in helping put down any rebellion. The problem is that it’s 2023 and I doubt that Russia is in any position to get drug into suppressing Belarussian unrest while it’s about to get punched in the face with a Ukrainian counter offensive. I mean holy crap, Ukrainian probing attacks are rolling up Wagner.

I’d be surprised if this was Vlad’s doing. Lukashenko is useless, but harmless. Offing him and hoping the next guy supports you with troops is a pretty terrible play if the route from Lukashenko in a box to Belarussian troops maybe showing up in Ukraine goes through a prolonged suppression campaign just to keep Belarus on their side that could very well blow up in their faces.

[GloomCookie]

Well, there's also Scenario 4: Lukashenka was poisoned by Putin - and Putin will use his death as an opportunity to install a more pliable puppet in Belarus. And will finally manage to get Belarus to join the war openly...

Putin's ruthless but he's not as stupid as everyone claims he is. I say that not to praise him but to point out that it's stupid to assume your opponents are idiots until proven otherwise.

Putin knows poisoning Lukashenka does nothing to advance his goals. He's openly friendly to the man, it nets him safe passage into Ukraine for his own troops, and it costs him nothing to have Lukashenka sitting where he is. If anything, Putin would want him to remain healthy just to shore up support from Belarus. Poisoning Lukashenka introduces an unstable element in that it's unclear which way Golovchenko will swing, if he will remain steadfastly loyal to Russia or if he'll bow to public pressure and allow actual honest and free elections in Belarus, which would 100% introduce a regime change that would be anti-Russian. If Golovchenko remains in power, he risks having the anti-Lukashenka elements rise up in protest and revolt seeing their opportunity.

No, Putin won't risk his position any more than it already is risked unless he sees an opportunity we don't, which I doubt. The only possible route out of this that Putin might welcome a change in Belarus' leadership would be if it would grant him an out of the current conflict, which I don't see him taking. He's had multiple opportunities thus far to retreat, but Russian propaganda has painted the conflict, especially around Donbas, as a modern Stalingrad for the Russian military.

So at present, I'm going to say that Putin is busy fretting that this is just another nail in the coffin for his failed Ukraine campaign.

[Beorning]

So, according to news sources over here, Lukashenka is still alive, apparently. Although he doesn't look that well in the newest photos...

[Skyguy]

Luka kicking the bucket would be bad for Russia. So uh... worst wishes for him.