War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Al Terego]

There are other ways to remove someone from power than elections.  If Putin is seen as a liability to Russia, someone stronger than him will undoubtedly start considering those options.

Someone "stronger" will likely be even worse.

[Oniya]

Someone "stronger" will likely be even worse.

Indubitably.

[NestorAjax]

I think it's less about the opinions of the proles and more undermining his image in the eyes of his underlings/supporters, the people he actually does need to keep his power base. Which is why I'm not sure it would work as well - they're not following him for his moral character, but for the benefits they get. The only way to really weaken his position is to make him lose, make him look weak and vulnerable.

It’s also about sowing self-doubt in Putin’s own mind as well. People who are sensitive about the topic of their intimate life like that are usually both obsessed over something and insecure.

Wouldn’t you think that if Kabaeva was faithful to him, he’d have legitimately married her without going through all that hassle? She’s already been treated like a queen for more than a decade. And what if Putin realizes that his supporters are suddenly aware of her side affairs despite all his “simping” for her? I think it sounds like a blow to his self-worth from which he may never be able to recover.

There are other ways to remove someone from power than elections.  If Putin is seen as a liability to Russia, someone stronger than him will undoubtedly start considering those options.

It’s not so much about strength (be it physical, that of willpower, organizational, or oratory/rhetorical), as it’s about appeal to the uneducated plebian masses. They don’t care about rationality or constructive arguments regarding democracy, personal freedoms etc., all they want is to eat, sleep, and have sex.

I speculate that, say, if someone suggests making Russia into a colder version of UAE, where every citizen would have a share from the export of hydrocarbons (despite otherwise it being an Orwellian shithole with de-jure irremovable Tsar who has absolute power over everything and the state zealously punishing any deviation from the “norm” to maintain “the purity of the faith”) — I can expect a huge majority supporting such agenda (and hopefully leave Ukraine alone).

Someone "stronger" will likely be even worse.

I don’t think the next person to come to power is likely to be foolish enough to continue this stupid, atrocious, stupidly atrocious and atrociously stupid warmongering campaign. Putin’s problem with Ukraine is that they actually managed to overthrow a corrupt president, which made a very bad example for his own position. Everything else was just “rationalized” after the fact.

[Chulanowa]

Maybe we can just employ some psychics to blow his head up like in "Scanners"? Or, you know, just wait around for Baba Yaga to get disturbed by the war and eat him. I mean if we're going to go into realms of fantasy and such we might as well at least make it cooler than this Procedural TV Drama slop.

Putin's not going to get shamed out of power any more than any other head of state will be. As cathartic as it might be to imagine you are the one clever, insightful, precise badass needed to deliver the ultimate dim mak death punch to his ego, it doesn't work like that. (Fitting, since the dim mak is itself bullshit) No one gives a damn about his girlfriend's side jobs for the same reason no one gives a shit about Biden's crackhead son, Trump's micropenis, Netanyahu's incredible ice cream expenditures, or Zelensky's coke habit. Because it's trifling shit that the target audience recognizes is being used by "outside" factions. The end effect is generally the opposite of intent.

Oniya is correct in their assessment; the only way to "get him out," is if he becomes a liability to Russia. And so far, that's not been happening. And I know, the counter-argument there is going to be "But we're sanctioning Russia so much! Of course he's a liability!" but... No? People in sanctioned nations generally recognize the problem as being external, not internal; no one has ever gone "We need to overthrow our government to end the sanctions!" That'd be like Ukrainians going "We need to take down Zelensky so we can have peace!" like, bruh, what?

[NestorAjax]

Putin's not going to get shamed out of power any more than any other head of state will be.

Maybe. It’s unlikely to cause his supporters become any more disillusioned with him than they already are, at least directly.

My thoughts are that the primary goal would be to cause the big man himself, roughly speaking, to divert his attention from one delusion regarding Ukraine to another, more personal delusion, possibly enough to progressively lose the grip he currently has on the state machinery.

Oniya is correct in their assessment; the only way to "get him out," is if he becomes a liability to Russia. And so far, that's not been happening. And I know, the counter-argument there is going to be "But we're sanctioning Russia so much! Of course he's a liability!" but... No? People in sanctioned nations generally recognize the problem as being external, not internal; no one has ever gone "We need to overthrow our government to end the sanctions!" That'd be like Ukrainians going "We need to take down Zelensky so we can have peace!" like, bruh, what?

Welp, with me having been interacting with various “samples” of the (not very bright) common populace for years, I’m honestly not that inclined towards them ever recognizing such liability at all. It would be very great if it turns out otherwise, but…

Regarding the elites, I believe they for the most part already do recognize him as a liability, however their current goal being to avoid losing whatever they still retain (wealth, influence, their very lives and those of their family members) is what prevents them from facilitating any sort of revolutionary movement. They do have a lot to lose yet.

[NestorAjax]

Also,

deliver the ultimate dim mak death punch to his ego

I don’t think it would exactly work as a one-hit job, either. Vulnerabilities (in terms of damage per effort) are characterized by comparison with other attack vectors, rather than judged purely by absolute amount of effort needed to “crush” a given target. And what actually bugs me here is that a lot of that effort is being wasted on public “licking of the wounds”, which could instead be directed to counterattack at the target’s insecurities.

If whoever had seasoned experience with professional negative campaigning, they’d be aware that, while influence on the target’s entourage should not be neglected either, the most destructive messages are actually delivered right to the target’s subconscious fears. The damage is far from immediate, but oh boy can it be devastating.

[Callie Del Noire]

Let’s be honest. He’s got enough blackmail to stay in power. He’s buried enough bodies while he was in the kgb to put away all his rivals. If he were to drop dead today, the folks he’s had leashed would descend into a knife fight for power that would make the initial Russian revolution look like a bar brawl.

[NestorAjax]

Even if they manage to paint Putin in an unflattering light, would it make any difference?
It's not like he has to worry about being re-elected.

Also, if he really didn’t have to worry, I don’t think he would be halting the “partial mobilization” thing and handing out get-out-of-jail-free cards en masse to convicts who agree to go to the front lines. Let alone making such compromises on the state’s monopoly on violence, as apparent with “PMC” Wagner Group and so on.

Let’s be honest. He’s got enough blackmail to stay in power. He’s buried enough bodies while he was in the kgb to put away all his rivals. If he were to drop dead today, the folks he’s had leashed would descend into a knife fight for power that would make the initial Russian revolution look like a bar brawl.

Hence I believe it would be best to have a more sensible political group adopt a “Do you want to live like they do in the Emirates?” slogan. Because having Russia a peaceful absolute monarchy sounds pretty good right now, democratic values be darned.

[Al Terego]

Oniya is correct in their assessment; the only way to "get him out," is if he becomes a liability to Russia.

What is "Russia" in this context?
A liability to whom exactly?

[Callie Del Noire]

Hence I believe it would be best to have a more sensible political group adopt a “Do you want to live like they do in the Emirates?” slogan. Because having Russia a peaceful absolute monarchy sounds pretty good right now, democratic values be darned.

Sensible groups are banned block or outlawed with their leadership in prison, dead by ‘suicide’ or hiding out of country while he sends people to help them have the first two. Why would anyone else speak up.

[midnightblack]

On a similar note, I have to confess to being tilted out of my tree by the formulation "it's the beginning of the end for Putin" that has been going around since the invasion started. There is no such thing. The only way it ends for him is sudden, either if he becomes physically unable to rule the country (very unlikely; he's probably got a good decade or more left in him, all things being equal), or if he loses decisively in Ukraine, which again is very unlikely. Precisely because no one wants to deal with 6000 nukes caught in a power struggle between maniacs that are at least as bad as him. It looks to me that the  goal is more or less to give Ukraine enough overall assistance to hold the Russians back and force a standstill, in the hope that eventually everyone gets tired of fighting and they settle to some form of agreement.

[Beorning]

Hence I believe it would be best to have a more sensible political group adopt a “Do you want to live like they do in the Emirates?” slogan. Because having Russia a peaceful absolute monarchy sounds pretty good right now, democratic values be darned.

The problem I have with believing in such an outcome is that, in Russia, absolute monarchy goes hand in hand with the imperialistic attitude. I just can't imagine a Russian politician that would advocate for keeping the autocracy... but without the imperial ambitions and desire to regain the former Russian / Soviet sphere of influence. It all goes hand in hand, a part of the "russkiy mir" concept...

A side note: yesterday, I read a story about a Russian Orthodox priest that dared to make a sermon advocating for peace (in front of a congration of ten parishioners). He was immediately reported on by one of these parishioners - and not only did the secular authorities jump on him, but he was also stripped of his status as a priest. With the justification that pacifism is a heresy...

[NestorAjax]

Sensible groups are banned block or outlawed with their leadership in prison, dead by ‘suicide’ or hiding out of country while he sends people to help them have the first two. Why would anyone else speak up.

Or keeping low profile and biding for a more opportune moment.

The only way it ends for him is sudden

From an outside observer, quite likely. Yet a lot of processes would be concealed which would lead to that end first.

Precisely because no one wants to deal with 6000 nukes caught in a power struggle between maniacs that are at least as bad as him.

This is indeed a good point.

The problem I have with believing in such an outcome is that, in Russia, absolute monarchy goes hand in hand with the imperialistic attitude. I just can't imagine a Russian politician that would advocate for keeping the autocracy... but without the imperial ambitions and desire to regain the former Russian / Soviet sphere of influence. It all goes hand in hand, a part of the "russkiy mir" concept...

The way I see it, a lot of nations went through similar stages at one point or another. The difference is that, before industrialization the main “cash cow” for sovereigns was land with peasants, and the main way to accumulate more was to subjugate more neighbors and/or take pieces of that away from them. Then the 20th century happened, and for a good part of it things went into a bloody showdown of dictatorial regimes of the “people are just replaceable cogs in the machine” brand. And then mass consumerism happened, followed by onset of humanistic ideals. It’s just that somewhere the latter happen to be lagging behind.

Current Russian regime’s aggression on Ukraine has little if anything to do with what it declares as its goals. The way I see it, Putin’s strategy is very similar to that of self-preservation of a mere parasite who has taken control of its host organism. Soon as he saw another fellow parasite (Viktor Yanykovych) getting toppled, he decided to take every measure to prevent the same from happening to himself, trying too hard in the process and ending up where he is now.

If Ukraine remains well-armed and gets admission into NATO, I don’t see much incentive for a relatively sane monarch to actually give into the same imperialistic “russkiy mir” b.s. in regards to his foreign policy. Sure, he’s likely to instill his own brand of “special way” propaganda within Russia so as to keep the populace in line, but he won’t be inhibited by things like a constitution with anti-censorship clause or elections or impeachment, either. So there’s not gonna be anyhing worthwhile to be gained for him from external aggression.

A side note: yesterday, I read a story about a Russian Orthodox priest that dared to make a sermon advocating for peace (in front of a congration of ten parishioners). He was immediately reported on by one of these parishioners - and not only did the secular authorities jump on him, but he was also stripped of his status as a priest. With the justification that pacifism is a heresy...

Back when ROC cut ties with Constantinople it was pretty obvious to me that the former was already completely beguiled by Russian political agenda.

[Al Terego]

Back when ROC cut ties with Constantinople [...]

For a moment there I was scratching my head trying to figure out what does Taiwan have to do with it.

[Vekseid]

I think it's less about the opinions of the proles and more undermining his image in the eyes of his underlings/supporters, the people he actually does need to keep his power base. Which is why I'm not sure it would work as well - they're not following him for his moral character, but for the benefits they get. The only way to really weaken his position is to make him lose, make him look weak and vulnerable.

There are really only two things that will disrupt Putin's support.

One is if he is perceived as weak. If he loses Ukraine, or if the rampant corruption under his rule has disrupted confidence in Russia's nuclear capabilities, or if the 'Freedom of Russia Legion' manages to actually secure e.g. Belgorod. There's really no sign for any of this happening.

The second is if he is unable to fulfill his economic promises. Pensions, mostly. This is a pretty low bar, but with as much as Russia has been cooking its books over the past year, it can't be ruled out as this conflict stretches on. People are not going to be more content in Russia a year from now.

Personally, I think he'll die of old age, and there really isn't a clear leader waiting in the wings. Prigozhin wants to be, clearly, but if he tries Shoigu may do something stupid and who knows what happens then.

[Humble Scribe]

I see that Prigozhin near as dammit called Putin a 'dickhead' in his latest broadside. I wouldn't be surprised if his headquarters was hit by a "Ukrainian" missile quite soon.

Called it.

I didn't expect they'd miss him and he'd decide to turn on the state, but hey, sometimes even things we didn't dare to hope for actually happen. Ukraine must be loving this.

[TheGlyphstone]

Don't mercenaries usually only turn on you when you fail to pay them? He's not in a position to realistically seize power so I'm not sure what his end game is.

[Oniya]

Providing some actual context

So, mercs will also turn on you if they think you're responsible for conducting an air-strike on them.

(The following link does not contain the mentioned video.  The video included is that of military vehicles in Moscow, responding to the 'mutiny'.)

An unverified video posted on a Telegram channel close to Wagner showed the purported scene of an air strike against Wagner forces. It showed a forest where small fires were burning and trees appeared to have been broken by force. There appeared to be one body, but no more direct evidence of any attack.

It carried the caption: "A missile attack was launched on the camps of PMC (Private Military Company) Wagner. Many victims. According to eyewitnesses, the strike was delivered from the rear, that is, it was delivered by the military of the Russian Ministry of Defence."

[Vekseid]

I expected this after Putin's death, not before.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko's plane is suddenly in Turkey. Something else may be going down.

[Sara Nilsson]

I expected this after Putin's death, not before.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko's plane is suddenly in Turkey. Something else may be going down.

You got a source for that? All I can find is a tweet.. and with twitter being twitter I trust it as far as I can throw it.

[midnightblack]

I expected this after Putin's death, not before.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko's plane is suddenly in Turkey. Something else may be going down.

I imagine this will be over by evening or night Moscow time. Give it days at most. I don't see why the majority of military and secret service structures would turn coats, which is what Prigozhin needs if he is looking for any chance to survive, let alone change leadership. Weird move on his part.

[Oniya]

Current news articles (UK's 'Daily Express' and Pravda) seem to be taking the nod from an outlet called Visegrad 24.  This particular outlet has a somewhat dubious reputation.

Till the end of September 2022, the project had been staying anonymous. However, after the publication of the OKO.press investigation, Stefan Tompson, the real founder of Visegrád 24 revealed himself in an interview for Rzeczpospolita. Tompson is a Polish-South African PR specialist, who runs a PR & marketing agency. He moved to Poland in 2014 and is also known as a popularizer of history, hosting a program “Polish heritage” on the national TV station TVP Dokument, sponsored by the Polish government. In the interview, Tompson confirms that his agency was paid by the Polish National Foundation for several projects.

Tompson named the lack of decent representation of the Polish right-wing perspective in the English-speaking space, the promotion of the whole Central-Eastern European region and Three Seas Initiative, and his PR [not journalistic] specialisation as the reasons for the project’s anonymity. Before that, he explained that Visegrád 24’s authors are co-workers and employees of his advertising agency, not journalists.

The bold statement stands out to me in particular.  Like Sara, I'm not going to trust this source until I've seen it corroborated by something not derived from that particular tweet.

[Vekseid]

You got a source for that? All I can find is a tweet.. and with twitter being twitter I trust it as far as I can throw it.

I was le tired and forgot link, apologies. Anyone can track the plane. Flies into Russia, turns off transponder, turns back on, flies to Turkey. Another link describing its ownership and operation history. You can also see and track the Belarusian government's other two VIP planes.

In related news, a lot of articles like this one. There are similar announcements from ex-Belarusian military in Ukraine. Video here but the autotranslate is pretty bad.



Putin has released an announcement:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_o_43QY4Jk

"Victory was stolen from us." Ha. No.

[Al Terego]

In related news, a lot of articles like this one. There are similar announcements from ex-Belarusian military in Ukraine. Video here but the autotranslate is pretty bad.

The translation in the article (1st link) is pretty accurate.

[Beorning]

Current news articles (UK's 'Daily Express' and Pravda) seem to be taking the nod from an outlet called Visegrad 24.  This particular outlet has a somewhat dubious reputation.

Yeah, Visegrad 24 has ties with the PiS government. I'd absolutely be careful about the information they provide.

I imagine this will be over by evening or night Moscow time. Give it days at most. I don't see why the majority of military and secret service structures would turn coats, which is what Prigozhin needs if he is looking for any chance to survive, let alone change leadership. Weird move on his part.

I don't understand it, either. Maybe he's counting at the regular Russian military joining him or staying neutral... But he really doesn't have big chances at winning this. Not to mention, he doesn't seem to be making too many precautions against Russian secret services assassinating him... Could he simply have the big an ego?

Whatever happens, let's hope this whole situation causes enough chaos for the Ukrainian side to get some solid advantage.