War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Humble Scribe]

Turkey was much more pro-Western when it joined NATO in 1952, and at the time was very concerned about Soviet expansionism. The US even stationed short range nuclear missiles there (this was a bone of contention that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis). Things have changed a lot since then, and Turkey ploughs a much more independent furrow these days, but it's still a major asset to NATO - from a strategic position Turkey's big trump card is holding the Dardanelles Strait, which means it controls all access to the Black Sea. In the recent conflict, this has meant preventing Russian naval vessels from reinforcing the Russian Black Sea fleet, which has certainly benefited western support for Ukraine.

On the other side of the coin, Turkey has always been a problem child for the alliance. Its invasion of Cyprus in 1974 (still a frozen conflict) threatened to put two NATO members (Turkey and Greece) at war with each other, though it's mildly amusing for those who protest at Turkey's lack of democracy to remember that NATO member in good standing Greece was run by a fascist military dictatorship at the time. More recently, Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war saw it shooting down Russian jets, potentially dragging NATO into a war with Russia and Syria, before Erdogan and Putin came to a deal over Syria, but they are still at loggerheads in the Caucasus, where Turkey has very successfully backed Azerbaijan against Russia's ally Armenia. Don't confuse Turkey for being a Russian ally - but both Erdogan and Putin are (or at least used to be in Putin's case) pragmatists. Turkey also hates Iran, but they see eye to eye over Kurdistan. The Middle East is a complex place. With Iraq in pieces, there are three major regional powers left who each seek to be the 'voice of Islam' - Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Of the three, Turkey may be the best of a bad bunch.

Erdogan is not a nice man, but seems to have played a canny diplomatic balancing act and he's using what leverage he has for maximum effect. He's positioned himself well as a potential mediator with Russia over Ukraine. I doubt he will block Finland and Sweden joining NATO at the end of the day - he's just looking for some concessions to make himself look big. He has elections next year which, though they may be biased, he still needs to win, and Turkey's economy is in the toilet right now. If the opposition won we might get a Turkey swinging back towards democracy - the opposition parties all agreed in February that if they won they'd overturn Erdogan's constitutional reforms that made the presidency so powerful, and return to a parliamentary system - but you'd never rule out another coup either.

[gaggedLouise]

Yes, I've never bought the notion that all NATO states are necessarily democracies, or that the goal of the alliance would be simply to protect democracy. It's a good deal more Machiavellian than that, of course. In 1954 the Soviet Union actually wanted to join as a member - and many of the western European members were positive to this or at least didn't reject the idea, but the US and UK vetoed it for sure. NATO also is about the position of the US in the world, it's hard to ignore that.

[Beorning]

Meanwhile in Russia...

Russian officials keep on spreading conspiracy theories. Now two of them claim Ukrainian army uses super-soldiers created with the help of the US:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russia-says-losing-because-ukraine-104546288.html


As bizarre as such claims are, they are also disgusting. Apparently, Russian government wants the Russians to see Ukrainian soldiers literally as mindless, bloodthirsty, inhuman monsters...

And of course, it's the Russian government that claims that they are fighting against Nazism. While employing propaganda straight out of the Nazis' handbook...

[Oniya]

Meanwhile in Russia...

Russian officials keep on spreading conspiracy theories. Now two of them claim Ukrainian army uses super-soldiers created with the help of the US:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russia-says-losing-because-ukraine-104546288.html


As bizarre as such claims are, they are also disgusting. Apparently, Russian government wants the Russians to see Ukrainian soldiers literally as mindless, bloodthirsty, inhuman monsters...

And of course, it's the Russian government that claims that they are fighting against Nazism. While employing propaganda straight out of the Nazis' handbook...

No, no - it's the Czech vampires that are doing the job.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/czech_vampire_rm_70_mlrs_by_excalibur_army_is_destroying_russians_in_ukraine_video-3552.html

[Humble Scribe]

Yes, I've never bought the notion that all NATO states are necessarily democracies, or that the goal of the alliance would be simply to protect democracy. It's a good deal more Machiavellian than that, of course. In 1954 the Soviet Union actually wanted to join as a member - and many of the western European members were positive to this or at least didn't reject the idea, but the US and UK vetoed it for sure. NATO also is about the position of the US in the world, it's hard to ignore that.

There was a time when the US recognised that it projected power more effectively when it was leading major multinational alliances and organisations. I think the Democrats still get that, but the Republicans I'm less sure about. Trump certainly didn't get it.

[gaggedLouise]

There was a time when the US recognised that it projected power more effectively when it was leading major multinational alliances and organisations. I think the Democrats still get that, but the Republicans I'm less sure about. Trump certainly didn't get it.

Very true!

[Dashenka]

And of course, it's the Russian government that claims that they are fighting against Nazism. While employing propaganda straight out of the Nazis' handbook...

This is true.



There is a Soviet piece of music, called The Sacred War on how the Soviets fought off Nazi Germany.

One of the verses is:

We shall drive a bullet into the forehead
Of the rotten fascist filth,
For the scum of humanity
We shall build a solid coffin!

Let noble wrath
Boil over like a wave!
This is the people's war,
a Sacred war!


A song I used to be proud of, filled me with joy and pride that people very close and dear to me have headed the call of the Motherland and risked their lives to free others.


Now it just revolts me, it makes me sick realizing that the song is no longer about Nazi Germany, but about modern day Russia and I'm just happy that my grandfather, a man I looked up to a lot, is no longer among us to see what 'his' Motherland has become. A fascist state full of rotten fascist filth, I cannot wait to bury in a solid coffin.


It's true what they say. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

[Vekseid]

I don't think anything is quite so sickening as so brazenly calling it 'The Ukrainian Question'. I don't believe that was anything but intentional.

My overall impression is Russian propagandists use Nazi/fascist for 'anti-Russian'. If you oppose Russia you are a Nazi. Because that's what the Nazis did.



For the war itself, a number of observations.

Russia has failed at every single encirclement attempt since Mariupol. They don't have the ability to break the Ukrainian line, just throw enough men and metal at it to push them back from one tiny area at a time.

Russian electronic warfare has come into play (finally) and appears to be devastating against Ukrainian drone operations, which is hampering their targeting. They are getting targeting from locals on the ground and 'other' sources.

I saw a lot of skepticism about HIMARS and M270... but the only counter Russia has to GMLRS rockets appears to be staying out of range. Which is a difficult ask when the only thing Russia has to strike from such ranges is inaccurate missiles with a 60% failure rate.

Russia is making extensive preparations both inside its own territory, and in occupied territories, for the event that Ukraine gets supplied ATACMS missiles. Two factors to watch.

1) Russia preparing for attacks on its own territory might give Biden courage to let it happen. I'm not sure if he will. For all its bluster, Putin seems deathly afraid of giving NATO cause for action.

2) It remains to be seen if Russia can actually intercept an American missile at all, much less do so reliably. If ATACMS start hitting targets behind air defenses, there will be international fallout as countries have spent billions ordering these systems.

While it certainly isn't a wunderwaffen, I think what we are seeing is a very fragile military apparatus breaking wherever it gets strained. Moreover, some of these strains are deep cultural features of the Russian nation, like how they handle the concept of leadership. US/NATO military doctrine, as taught to Ukraine, tears this apart.

Ukraine has declared their intent to retake Kherson, and appears to be making genuine preparations for doing so.

[GloomCookie]

Apparently, Russia has levied a $374 Million dollar fine against Google for refusing to bend the knee and promote Russian war propaganda.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/07/russia-fines-google-370m-for-refusing-to-bend-to-putins-war-propaganda/

This is after Russia levied a fine in December for $92 Million, which Google paid, and prompted Google to start withdrawing from Russia and only allowing free services to Russian internet users.

[Vekseid]

Google Russia was itself created under threat of them blocking Youtube.

Which, near as I can tell, they don't actually have the tech to do past the DNS level. Which is bonkers.

[Dashenka]

I saw a lot of skepticism about HIMARS and M270... but the only counter Russia has to GMLRS rockets appears to be staying out of range. Which is a difficult ask when the only thing Russia has to strike from such ranges is inaccurate missiles with a 60% failure rate.

Russia is making extensive preparations both inside its own territory, and in occupied territories, for the event that Ukraine gets supplied ATACMS missiles. Two factors to watch.

1) Russia preparing for attacks on its own territory might give Biden courage to let it happen. I'm not sure if he will. For all its bluster, Putin seems deathly afraid of giving NATO cause for action.

2) It remains to be seen if Russia can actually intercept an American missile at all, much less do so reliably. If ATACMS start hitting targets behind air defenses, there will be international fallout as countries have spent billions ordering these systems.

While it certainly isn't a wunderwaffen, I think what we are seeing is a very fragile military apparatus breaking wherever it gets strained. Moreover, some of these strains are deep cultural features of the Russian nation, like how they handle the concept of leadership. US/NATO military doctrine, as taught to Ukraine, tears this apart.

Ukraine has declared their intent to retake Kherson, and appears to be making genuine preparations for doing so.

The biggest difference between NATO/US/Etc and Russia is that Russia doesn't mind collateral damage. In fact some might say they specifically target civilians.

I think the weapons Russia uses are just very inaccurate, as Veks mentioned or unreliable. They might aim for a military target but the missile lands on a block of housing. US weaponry is really accurate. They can launch a missile through a letter box and land it on a stamp. Russia doesn't have that, as far as we are aware of. So the dangerous thing they do, is launch multiple missiles, hoping that at least one of them will hit while the others cause collateral damage.

I don't know much about the details of HIMARS or other weapons but I'm pretty sure that most western weaponry is superiour to Russian weapons or soldiers. There was a talkshow on the Dutch TV a while ago in which a Russia expert told that there had been a global exercise of special forces around the world and the Russians thought they were pretty good and strong... Until the Americans entered the ring as it were and basically handed the Russians their asses on a platter.

I think and I hope that now the western equipment is being rolled onto the front now that the Ukrainian army has learned how to use them, the tides could really turn.

[Bezukhov]

I remember the discomfort I felt when I first read Pomerantsev's "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia" and his first-hand account of the Russian media environment in the early 2000s. A couple of days ago, Russia-1 broadcast a video that depicts parents who lost son to war showing off the Lada they bought with 'coffin money', that is, the compensation the Russian government pays to the families of soldiers who died in Ukraine.

[Vekseid]

Split discussion about targeting civilians here: https://elliquiy.com/forums/index.php?topic=343878.0

[Relikai]

I don't know much about the details of HIMARS or other weapons but I'm pretty sure that most western weaponry is superiour to Russian weapons or soldiers.

I worked with an artillery battalion utilizing the HIMARs in my country, in exercises which had them as BLUFOR (We ensure the HIMARS battalion is able to stay mobile through terrain obstacles) or OPFOR (We keep an objective operational and ourselves alive under HIMARS fire).

They are effective. They can throw hundreds of anti-personnel or anti-tank landmines across dozens of kilometers, cut off a major road, or in the most basic of functions, cause mobility kills to armour (Tanks can be repaired but they are only husks by the road) and devastate infantry in soft cover. Against hardened targets such as concrete structures they are effective as well, altho it depends on the type of rocket and the munition. The more capable the rocket is, the fewer the HIMARs can throw, but the most valuable part of the HIMARs is not the rocket, but its survivability.

Artillery are often soft-skinned or lightly armoured. The significant advantage the HIMARs possess is its speed across rough terrain or 'cross-country' speed over Self-Propelled Guns such as the Russian 'Carnation' or 'Acacia'. It's faster than the M270 MLRS too, which allows them to 'Shoot & Scoot', firing and moving quickly to another position to prevent Counter-battery fire. The HIMARs will not survive even a near miss from a 250lb bomb.

Long story short, give the Ukrainian Artillery space to set up firing positions, a steady supply chain properly camouflaged, and have their MANPADs keeping the skies clear of Russian recon drones and the HIMARs will have a field day.

[Dashenka]

Long story short, give the Ukrainian Artillery space to set up firing positions, a steady supply chain properly camouflaged, and have their MANPADs keeping the skies clear of Russian recon drones and the HIMARs will have a field day.

Well... here's to hoping for said field day. Can't come quick enough.

[midnightblack]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal

I don't know what to say, really. It seems to be all over the news. If the information is accurate, these people are well beyond insanity at this point.

[Dashenka]

Putin wants Odesa. It's the key city to owning the south of Ukraine, along with Mykolaiv so he can connect Russia to Transnistria and have his Fourth Reich or something.

Also with Mariupol in ruins and Sebastopol... well... probably in ruins as well, Odesa is the biggest functioning port city on the Black Sea if you don't count Istanbul. This grain deal, as good as it is on paper, is just more oil to the propaganda fire of Putin who claims that Ukrainians, because they are nazi's are sabotaging the deal by blowing up targets in Odesa to blame the Russians and give the Russians a bad name.

The only way this war ends quickly, is with NATO military intervention. Otherwise, we willsee Mykolaiv and Odesa (which is in my opinion one of the most beautiful cities in the world) in ruins and his next stop is Transnistria in Moldova, which is a country NOT part of NATO.

[Vekseid]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392

I don't know what to say, really. It seems to be all over the news. If the information is accurate, these people are well beyond insanity at this point.

My bingo card had them ambushing ships in transit.

Still, I had hopes.

[Iniquitous]

My bingo card had them ambushing ships in transit.

Still, I had hopes.

Don't count that out since Russian and Turkish navy ships are to "escort" the Ukranian ships carrying the goods.

[Dashenka]

Don't count that out since Russian and Turkish navy ships are to "escort" the Ukranian ships carrying the goods.

The Turks made the deal happen. They are the least of the worries.


There is some good news as well. The Ukrainian army are making good progress to liberate Cherson. It's almost completely cut off from the Russian controlled area's making it hard for the Russians to resupply their troops. British intel also says the Russians are moving a lot of their troops south to prevent Cherson from being taken again, meaning other areas in Ukraine are getting some relief.

[GloomCookie]

Given the rather... brutal way that urban warfare is and always has been, while it is good the Ukrainians are moving in on Cherson, it's probably not going to be nice on either the people inside the city (civilians and Russians alike) or the Ukrainians who get to go door to door checking for anyone with a strange lapel.

I'm going to predict now that as Russian troops begin to face logistical issues that make their current situation look like a picnic in the local park, the Ukraine civilian population is going to be robbed quite literally at gunpoint for anything and everything to eat. Couple that with the extreme stress of urban warfare and being essentially under siege and I'm going to call it right now that Cherson is going to have all kinds of horrific war crimes crop up as the Russians pull out.

The Russians have already made it abundantly clear they're not afraid to target civilians so what's a few more war crimes as mementos of their visit?

[Dashenka]

I'm not sure if the plan is to go full urban warfare. Could be though.

I've read somewhere that Zelensky had already urged the people in Cherson to leave the city or take shelter.


But you are right, the Russians are ruthless and will have no problems shelling civilians and raze the city entirely. That said, the bombing of Kyiv and Mykolaiv and other cities by the Russians could be seen as desperation according to some. Things are not going their way and with each day passing, the Ukrainian army grows stronger because of the western weapons. In reply, the Russians strike 'random' targets in order to try to cause panic and lower morale.

Of course there is a big danger in this as well. What if Putin gets REALLY frustrated?

So although the goodnews is that Ukraine is reclaiming ground and holding off the Russians, with Cherson being on a river, it could easily turn out to be similar to Stalingrad in WW2. But sometimes good news is all we can cling on because the alternative is way too disturbing.

[GloomCookie]

Well. I didn't know I needed this on my War Bingo Card.

Trigger warning: gruesome acts performed on a bound POW by Russian soldiers.

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide

TL;DR: Russian soldiers castrate a Ukrainian POW.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/29/ukrainian-pow-castrated-by-russians-in-sickening-video/

[Thufir Hawat]

Well. I didn't know I needed this on my War Bingo Card.

Trigger warning: gruesome acts performed on a bound POW by Russian soldiers.

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide

TL;DR: Russian soldiers castrate a Ukrainian POW.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/29/ukrainian-pow-castrated-by-russians-in-sickening-video/

Nobody needed that on the War Bingo Card.

[Missy]

I haven't really been following thsi thread but . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yy4RP4FMNk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3kZfLeEqvs