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Author Topic: EU Referendum / BREXIT  (Read 14928 times)

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Offline Kurzyk

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #125 on: June 25, 2016, 10:49:23 AM »
I read today something about how there was a petition to parliament, with already over 100k votes to put together a referendum that if a vote like this was less than 60%, to do a second vote.

I could be wrong about that, I only skimmed the article, but it's interesting.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #126 on: June 25, 2016, 11:08:39 AM »
I read today something about how there was a petition to parliament, with already over 100k votes to put together a referendum that if a vote like this was less than 60%, to do a second vote.

I could be wrong about that, I only skimmed the article, but it's interesting.

How many popular referendums in a hot question *ever* got settled with more than sixty percent on one side? Gee, I'd say it's almost normal that the margin turns out to be fairly slim when it's a heavyweight issue. The very dynamics of a direct appeal to the people on a single question seems to drive it that way.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #127 on: June 25, 2016, 11:32:47 AM »
If one thing worries me about the UK right now.. It would probably have to be the very public presence of people like Boris Johnson who frankly seems to have little to no idea what he's doing. I don't think the comparison to Donald Trump is entirely unjustified.

Both Johnson and Farage seemed completely bewildered by the result; after all, neither actually expected to win. Farage has bounced back to his usual triumphalist self, but Johnson is probably realising that this is no longer something to gripe around the dinner table about. Now he has to deliver, and he's in over his head.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #128 on: June 25, 2016, 11:59:11 AM »
The thing is the issue is so divisive. It is something that seems to be genuinely split down the middle, so I honestly think that the results would never be by an overly significant margin. How many times would you want to hold a vote before saying enough is enough? What's would you define as a definite margin?

What if it was held again, and this time the Remain side won by 2%? Would that suddenly be fine because it's Remain? Would there then need to be yet another one because of slim margins? It could go on forever.

That wasn't the point I was trying to make, that if Remain won by 2% it would be fine and dandy and we should just leave it at that, but that we should keep voting over and over if Leave wins by the same margin. But fact of the matter is that it is a split down the middle, so what's fair? Is it fair to dramatically alter the lives on one side because the other is looking for some new adventure, or is it fair to ensure that everyone stays the same way they are now because one side doesn't want this change?

As said, my point isn't that we should leave it at that if Remain won by 2% or less, but it feels like your argument is that the UK should definitely eject itself from the EU no matter the cost because Leave won by that margin.

If a second referendum was had and Leave yet again won, even with as tiny a margin as they have now, then it would be decided: The UK leaves the EU because the Leave-side has won twice in a row, proving that there are indeed more people dedicated to that cause than to the other. On the other hand, if Remain wins by a similar margin or less, then it's proof that this issue has divided the UK to the point where some kind of alternative solution is required.

This really is a prime example of perhaps the biggest issue with democracy: What is fair?

But leaving the EU is such a drastic choice that it hardly feels right for me to say that the UK should just go ahead with it, even if it potentially won by a fluke or because a bunch of Remain-supporters felt confident enough in victory that they didn't bother heading out in the rain to deliver their vote. This is extremely serious, and I don't think that such a tiny lead is convincing enough in the grand scheme of things to just forge ahead.

I think enough Leave-supporters have been sufficiently alarmed by, for example, the comments made by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson immediately following the Leave victory to have second thoughts. If, by the time push comes to shove, the majority feels it's not the right thing to do.. Then what? "Oh well, too late! You set out on a ship with no rudder and now you'll just have to see what happens."

Yeah, this is the sort of big change that's legitimately scary. I have a lot of dear friends who are UK residents and some family who are all Remain-supporters who have no idea what to do now, because this is going to fundamentally change their lives and they basically have to either get out and leave said life behind or stay on for the ride. You really can't compare this to a general election, because it's so much bigger than that.

Thus my point is that leaving all of this to a single vote that was almost a tie just seems irresponsible and haphazard. I know that you might argue that Remain would get the long end of the stick by waiting, because they get to be a part of the EU for longer, but all the Leave-supporters can't just regret this and annul it if the worst case scenario turns out to be the case. I feel like the UK has to be sure that this is what it wants, and a less than 2% win doesn't feel much like certainty to me, with Northern Ireland and Scotland ready to consider jumping ship at this point.

Online Khoraz

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #129 on: June 25, 2016, 12:32:38 PM »
Okay so if there was another vote and it was remain by the same margin, what then?

What alternative is there? Negotiations with Europe have always been difficult, made even more so by the fact that we've voted to leave in the first place. I don't see much of an in between really - it's in or out.

Though I do agree that Boris and Farage have handled it badly. Never thought I'd say this, but Cameron has taken the whole thing with more grace.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #130 on: June 25, 2016, 12:45:35 PM »
Well, this has proven to the EU that lots of countries are demanding reforms. I doubt that the EU is not going to change after all of this, and it might be that the rest of us end up seeing solutions to the problems that the UK are having with the organization as a whole. As I stated in an earlier post, the UK will also still be required to live up to it's obligations and such while the whole process of negotiating their goodbye and before that. A lot of people will have voted leave because of key issues such as immigration, and it's hard to say whether or not there will still be a migration-crisis by the time the UK finally leaves, meaning that one of the reasons why a lot of people wanted to leave might not exist by the time that this would actually occur.

But if there was another vote and Remain won by the same margin, then obviously the country is so split that neither option (leaving or staying) is actually fair. But what if there was another vote and Remain won by 5%? 7%? 10%? If a whole lot of Leave-supporters decided it wasn't what they wanted after all? People voting against their own interests out of spite, people voting because of the NHS-stuff that's apparently all built on lies, people who didn't realize what the EU is actually about until after it was all settled.

Returning to the question of Remain winning by the same margin though, would you still say that leaving is the right thing to do then? That it's somehow more valid in a tie than staying? The UK would remain for a while longer and the EU would likely have to start working on reforms that will benefit all members.

Sure, it's speculation, but whether or not the UK stands to benefit from leaving the EU and setting out on it's own is also speculation, and I choose to believe that the safer option is the better option in this case.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #131 on: June 25, 2016, 12:56:03 PM »
Of course Westminster could declare "this was only an advisory referendum, not a deciding one, so we'll void it" - like in many other countries, the Uk doesn't have legally binding referendums on matters of state - but many of the electorate would probably explode at that kind of stance. The loss of credibility for many politicians (and for the government!) would be devastating...and many people would read it as the final example of Westminster having ben pulled by a hook in the nose by EU bureaucrats.  ::)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 12:59:47 PM by gaggedLouise »

Online Khoraz

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #132 on: June 25, 2016, 01:04:03 PM »
Oh the EU will definitely change after this, but it seems that the leave vote has exposed even more division in the EU than before - half of them are saying they want to rush through the leaving process (which they shouldn't be able to do according to their own laws) and the other half, Germany included, wants to negotiate. They have no idea what to do now that this has happened.

I wouldn't blame other countries for thinking about leaving as well. The EU hasn't been right for a long time, but that is just my opinion.

I think it's too soon to judge how the leave game will play out - things need time to settle before calling for another vote rather than doing all this knee-jerking and panicking.

The idea that the EU is going to miraculously and suddenly start negotiating reforms is just not going to happen. They're in a mess and in state to discuss anything without flying off the handle.

The safer option is to stay, but the safer option isn't always the best. People are scared by change, but change has to happen or else nothing would ever progress.

Of course Westminster could declare "this was only an advisory referendum, not a deciding one, so we'll void it" - like in many other countries, the Uk doesn't have legally binding referendums on matters of state - but many of the electorate would probably explode at that kind of stance. The loss of credibility for many politicians (and for the government!) would be devastating...and many people would read it as the final example of Westminster having ben pulled by a hook in the nose by EU bureaucrats.  ::)
I don't think they will, especially after Cameron resigned and said that it would be done. I think it's the EU bureaucracy that has driven most people away from it.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #133 on: June 25, 2016, 01:07:50 PM »
I don't think they will, especially after Cameron resigned and said that it would be done.

I am not sure I'd give that credit - I mean, Farage said a lot in his propaganda and then denied it hours after final count. Once one side plays the bait and switch, what stops the other side?

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #134 on: June 25, 2016, 01:10:56 PM »
Look at it this way.  I voted for Scotland to become independent.  We lost, and I didn't demand another referendum even though it was as close as 55%-45%.  This is the risks involved with democracy.  Even if it's a 99%-1% split, there will always be someone disappointed.  However, being a UK citizen, the majority of the public for YEARS have been talking about leaving the EU.  This isn't a sudden decision, it's been brewing for more than a decade.

The problem with the world is every one is afraid of change.  For most generations, they're used to being in the EU that they don't know what it would be like without it.  It's not the be-all-and-end-all.  Unfortunately, any one who dared to vote "out" has now been branded stupid, a racist and other nonsense.  The vote has sparked a debate, but it's more down to the fact that for once, Britain has actually followed up with it's threats.

Online Khoraz

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #135 on: June 25, 2016, 01:14:30 PM »
I am not sure I'd give that credit - I mean, Farage said a lot in his propaganda and then denied it hours after final count. Once one side plays the bait and switch, what stops the other side?
True, but would he go back on a resignation? Seems like political/reputation suicide.

Look at it this way.  I voted for Scotland to become independent.  We lost, and I didn't demand another referendum even though it was as close as 55%-45%.  This is the risks involved with democracy.  Even if it's a 99%-1% split, there will always be someone disappointed.  However, being a UK citizen, the majority of the public for YEARS have been talking about leaving the EU.  This isn't a sudden decision, it's been brewing for more than a decade.

The problem with the world is every one is afraid of change.  For most generations, they're used to being in the EU that they don't know what it would be like without it.  It's not the be-all-and-end-all.  Unfortunately, any one who dared to vote "out" has now been branded stupid, a racist and other nonsense.  The vote has sparked a debate, but it's more down to the fact that for once, Britain has actually followed up with it's threats.
All of this. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there had been a petition or two to have another referendum.

Out of curiosity, would you vote for independence again if it was up? Sturgeon(sp?) is going for it.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #136 on: June 25, 2016, 01:16:50 PM »
Yeah, I read somewhere that at the summit of foreign ministers from the six founder members today, they wanted to push even more for a firmer union, more steps towards a real federal state level for the inner circle of countries, but it's completely up in the air if they can achieve that for now. Both Merkel and Hollande are up for reelection next year and it's going to be tough campaigns, they won't want an even bigger load of heavyweight EU issues hanging over them by then. And you don't win an election in tough times by saying "I'm going to give away more of national powers and prerogatives to an EU level".  :D

Also, the way they phrased that, it meant a tacit admission that they might have to accept more of a "two-speed Europe", since many member countries are simply not interested in big radical schemes with ever more stuff getting decided or pushed at the Brussels and EU council level. That kind of admission has been something they really didn't want to make for a long time.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #137 on: June 25, 2016, 01:22:40 PM »
To be fair, 5% isn't close in a vote, whereas less than 2% is definitely not a convincing victory for either side. And I definitely do not buy the whole "Most generations don't know what it means to not be in the EU"-thing. I mean, so what? I don't see what that's got to do with it. The older generations shouldn't be allowed to just drag the youth out of the EU because they're dissatisfied after all.

And let's just be clear that this doesn't appear to be about the UK "Following up on it's threats" as much as it's about Cameron getting elected on terms that would eventually come around to bite him. As seen by the near-tie result, half the country would disagree that it was even necessary to make those threats in the first place.

But you're right: Change has to happen for things to evolve and progress to happen. But then why is everyone so opposed to the idea of a second vote? Would it not be an evolution of the democratic system to not let decisions stand or fall on what's almost a tie, and instead check and make sure the result is genuinely representing the will of the people?

I just don't believe we're in a situation where EU-reforms is an impossible goal. I disagree with loads of stuff relating to the EU, but I also disagree the leaving is the right option. If this whole thing has not been a wake-up call for those in the EU that are willing to try and make it work, then sure, it's a sinking ship. But I refuse to believe that it would let itself be buried in bureaucracy to the point where where we wouldn't see any results for 20 years.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #138 on: June 25, 2016, 01:26:22 PM »
Quote
I just don't believe we're in a situation where EU-reforms is an impossible goal.

I think that's the crux of the argument. I think the EU is just a mess - maybe that's cynical, but yeah... I just didn't see any chance in the EU. Got to try out of it.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #139 on: June 25, 2016, 01:29:33 PM »
As much as it pains me to say it, no, I wouldn't vote for independence again.  There's a lot of theories doing the rounds at the minute, and one of them seems to be Scotland being able to take Britain's place in the EU.

Nope.  That's not going to happen.  It seems to be mostly young people that voted remain, but I'm in my mid-20s and suddenly I'm painted out to be the bad guy because I wanted to leave.

The top brass of the EU have made it clear that they will make Britain (regardless of what part, whether it is Scotland, England, Wales or N. Ireland) regret voting to leave.  Sure, the majority of Scots and Irish voted to stay in, but that doesn't mean anything to the Europeans.  If Scotland go independent, we'll have as much influence on the European stage as Andorra (no offence to them).  We'll need to adopt the Euro, which will be devastating for the economy, as well as bending over backwards to every rule and regulation that the EU wants to impose to new members.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #140 on: June 25, 2016, 01:31:51 PM »
How many popular referendums in a hot question *ever* got settled with more than sixty percent on one side? Gee, I'd say it's almost normal that the margin turns out to be fairly slim when it's a heavyweight issue. The very dynamics of a direct appeal to the people on a single question seems to drive it that way.

Not quite the same thing, but there are certain measures in the U.S. that have to be decided by a 2/3s majority vote by the Congress.  It's a difficult majority, but it is achievable.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #141 on: June 25, 2016, 01:34:24 PM »
I think that's the crux of the argument. I think the EU is just a mess - maybe that's cynical, but yeah... I just didn't see any chance in the EU. Got to try out of it.

And I almost fully agree with you, except I don't think giving up on it is the right thing to do, especially not at this particular point in time. I believe there is hope in the EU, and that's really where we disagree I suppose. :)

Offline TaintedAndDelishTopic starter

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #142 on: June 25, 2016, 02:18:42 PM »

Regarding this bit about wanting to vote again ( and presumably again and again ), I see a few issues. The biggest is that you can't un-ring a bell. They may be able to re-vote and change it's outcome, but that won't do anything about all the consequences of the original vote and it certainly would not change things back to the way they were.







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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #143 on: June 25, 2016, 03:07:06 PM »
See, the thing about this whole "Vote again until the people in charge the result they want"-thing is that this is basically how democracy works nowadays. For all of those thinking that it would be unfair to vote again because then leave might loose.. Well, that's an indication the leaving is not actually what the majority wants after all, so how come you only want to be democratic and go with the majority when it benefits you?

I'm only saying this because of people took to me suggesting that a second vote wouldn't be a bad idea before making the final decision. Democracy is to carry out the will of the people through a majority, and if the majority has switched sides in a month or a year, then leaving is obviously not the right thing to do. People claimed (Or to some extent perhaps insinuated) that I was saying this as a Remain-supporter who just wanted to keep rolling the dice until I got the result I wanted, but that's not true.

Things have already been set in motion and opinions are changing. It was so incredibly close to begin with, and lots of people appear to have come forwards saying they "Didn't Really mean it" (That's a very irresponsible way to vote, by the way, regardless of what side you're supporting.) and of course there's this whole NHS-thing that's cropped out with some blatant lying on the behalf of the Leave-campaign.

Alright then, I accept that I may be biased by my opinion, but so are all of you who are against a second vote. As much as I am for it because "My side" (I'm not a UK citizen, nor do I live there) lost, you're against it because your side won. Neither of us, in this case, actually care about democracy and we just want our way. You simply can't mean to tell me that you care about democracy if you would ignore a potential shift in majority before the UK officially leaves the EU. I don't think my interpretation of democracy and the importance of having a true majority is unjust, and if Remain won a second vote by a similar 1-3% margin I'd be all for giving it a bit more time and having a third vote if need be. On the other hand, if Leave were to win a second vote once more, I will happily accept that it is genuinely how the dedicated majority feels.

I just think this is too big a matter to be settled by a less than 2% majority in a single referendum with obvious lies now being unearthed on the winning side. Uninformed people will have voted for something they were immediately told they weren't actually going to get, and I don't think it's right to just ignore that.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #144 on: June 25, 2016, 03:19:48 PM »
For me at least, it's not that I'm worried the leave will loose. If the Remain side had won I wouldn't be gunning for another vote. It's just not democratic - you can't say that certain people's votes are more important than anyone else's, just as I can't say mine is.

The thing is, I highly doubt that a win would be by anything like a 'clear' majority. It's just too much of a divisive issue for there to be a big difference. People have dug their heels in and won't change their minds - if they do it will probably just be 2% the other way, or closer to the middle which wouldn't help at all.

Opinions are changing, but opinions will be changing ever day while things are up in the air the way they are. The pound plummeted yesterday and today it's gone steady _- even going up a little bit. So it's impossible to judge how people are going to feel in the long term with so much mess flying everywhere.

Sorry if I'm not debating well. I'm pretty sleepy and have a cat sat on one of my hands.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #145 on: June 25, 2016, 05:07:01 PM »
Well, I think I've said everything I needed to say. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. Maybe we'll see another vote, maybe this is the best thing to ever happen, we simply don't know enough yet, and I guess my 24 hours of despair and moaning ordained by Jeremy Clarkson are over.

It was a good debate, but unless something big happens I doubt I can add anymore to it, thus I will probably withdraw for the time being.

In conclusion my stance is that there is a lot wrong with the EU, but I don't believe that leaving and/or ultimately dissolving it is the answer. At least, not yet. And I don't think less than 2% lead is enough to justify going ahead with a change of this magnitude without a follow-up vote or an official national poll of registered voters at some point in the future. (Not tomorrow, but two months or a year, but before the process becomes irreversible.)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 05:09:09 PM by Nachtmahr »

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #146 on: June 25, 2016, 05:23:06 PM »
Forcing another vote will make a mockery of democracy (which itself, is a joke these days anyway).

The reason they want another vote is because they are going about, interviewing thousands of people then when they find three people who go "I voted to leave but I didn't think my vote would count!" they suddenly paint the "leave" voters as incompetent idiots.  I'm just surprised that so many of my intelligent friends believed in the scaremongering from the "remain" side.  British MPs are *far* from the most reliable and trustworthy of people, so why believe what they have to say?  These are the same people that made a mockery of the expense system, and are clearly only interested in what benefits them.

I'm with Khoraz.  If we lost, then I would man up and accept it.  I certainly did when Scotland didn't go independent (and I'm an *extremely* proud and passionate Scot who, when signing up to internet forums, constantly scrolls down hoping to find "Scotland" and reluctantly has to select "United Kingdom" as my country). 

It's playing the waiting game now, really.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #148 on: June 25, 2016, 05:51:25 PM »
British MPs are *far* from the most reliable and trustworthy of people, so why believe what they have to say? 

That's actually a comment I've heard expressed from some of those who did vote for leaving (or at least was reported in the news). They voted leave on the basis that all this additional funding would be put back into the countries infrastructure, like the NHS.

Now the leave politicians are going 'Oops, wasn't actually as much as we were saying in the first place, and we didn't say we WOULD put it back there.', so those who voted leave are feeling very cheated. The financial upheavels, the situation with Scotland, N Ireland and now Gibraltar as well, there seems to be a hell of a lot of buyers remorse, as it were.

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/belfast-post-office-runs-out-of-irish-passport-application-forms-34833135.html

I found the above story somewhat amusing, but then Norn Iron folk do have a dark sense of humour :)

Online TheGlyphstone

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #149 on: June 25, 2016, 05:53:40 PM »
Now I'm curious, what are the reversals and backtracking/take-backsies from the Leave-oriented politicians that people are talking about?