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Author Topic: EU Referendum / BREXIT  (Read 9338 times)

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Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #200 on: June 27, 2016, 02:50:50 PM »

And that's ignoring the fact that sections 29 and 57(2) of the 1998 Scotland Act grants the Sottish parliament a veto.


The problem with the argument, at least as I see it, is the so-called proviso. The Sewel convention has now been enacted in section 28(8) of the Scotland Act 1998. What it says in context is:


(7)     This section does not affect the power of the Parliament of the United Kingdom to make laws for Scotland.

(8)     But it is recognised that the Parliament of the United Kingdom will not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters without the consent of the Scottish Parliament.

You remember that proviso I mentioned? The Westminster Parliament retained a residual right to legislate without the consent of the Scottish Parliament in non-normal circumstances.

And if a decision in a UK-wide referendum to depart from the European Union is not a non-normal circumstance I donít know what is.

Offline Neroon

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #201 on: June 27, 2016, 03:42:09 PM »
And you're ignoring the fact that the referendum is not legally binding.

It was a lie to say that this referendum would decide if we would stay in or leave.  It is a lie to say that it shows that the majority of Britain wants to leave- it has not been demonstrated.  It is a lie to say that the result of this referendum is equivalent to an act of parliament.

You are right however to say that should parliament vote to leave the EU, Holyrood could do nothing about it.  But the referendum result is not an act of parliament.  The act of parliament relating to the referendum specifically excludes mention of the referendum result being legally binding, which it would need for it to force Brexit.  Therefore Holyrood could  veto any attempt to leave the EU on the basis of this referendum.  More importantly, moraly, they should veto such an attempt. Their responsibility is to protect the interests of the Scottish people, this is a sure way of doing that.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #202 on: June 27, 2016, 03:59:00 PM »
Now an obscure part of the Maastricht Treaty could allow the Brexiteers to get round this, as it does allow for members having referenda to leave the EU. However, it states that a referendum regarding departure from the EU would require a 75% turnout and a 65% mandate.

Do you have any more on this?  The Lisbon treaty supercedes the Maastricht one - it's the same treaty after all - and so the section amended in Lisbon is in force.  I'm actually struggling a little to find the original Maastricht text in a readable format but one would assume that's Section 6, Article 50?  If so, I can't see how that would still be binding even if it was in the document.

EDIT:  Title 6 not Section 6, sorry
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 04:01:38 PM by Kythia »

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #203 on: June 27, 2016, 04:01:15 PM »
The act of parliament that set up the referendum stated that the referendum was non-binding.  Yet it is repeated over and over that the Prime Minister, either Cameron now or whoever emerges as leader after a Tory leadership battle, will have to invoke Article 50 of the EU referendum.  Yet this too is a lie.  Firstly the only valid conclusion one can take from last week's vote is that the UK population is split on Europe.  Britain may have spoken but pretty much what it said was "er...".  Secondly, the wording of the Brexit referendum's act was very specific and did not make any reference to the decision of the referendum having to be taken by parliament.  For a referendum to be binding it has to be specifically stated in that referendum's associated act that the referendum result must be followed.  Without that, the only way Britain can legally leave the EU is if the House of Commons passes an act to leave the EU since the preamble to Article 50 states,  ďAny member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.Ē

Yes, quite true the referendum is non binding. However Mr Cameron said this immediately after the vote and directly before announcing his decision to retire.

"The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected," said Mr Cameron. "The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered."

So as we stand at this precise moment the government line is that they will go ahead with leaving. Mr Corbyn too has said he respects the decision.

Since Mr Cameron has left it to whoever replaces him to carry it forward it would be presumptuous to assume who will succeed him, the contenders will not even be announced until Wednesday. And to be frank the labour party seems more concerned with completely destroying itself than any other issue. We will simply have to wait to see who is in charge of what party when the dust settles before we can tell what way the MP's will be instructed to vote by their parties and then see how many rebel.


Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #204 on: June 27, 2016, 04:16:32 PM »
Google fu totally failed me.  Here it is  And yeah, I think you're mistaken here.  Granted I've just done searches for appropriate words but I can't find that anywhere.

Offline Neroon

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #205 on: June 27, 2016, 04:36:43 PM »
Things are often said in the heat of the moment that are often regretted at leisure. The fact remains that less than 40% of those eligible to vote voted for this. The will of the British people is unclear and the consequences of leaving severe.  I cannot see a circumstance where forcing the will of a minority through when an almost equal number oaf people are against and over 27% of the electorate not stating a decision is a wise political decision.

Do you have any more on this? 

I haven't a friend sent me the details along with the comment that he never thought he would have a reason to than John Major.   The point I was trying to make was that this wasthe easier means of leaving that the Lisbon Treaty sought to replace.

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #206 on: June 27, 2016, 04:59:58 PM »
I believe you may have misconstrued the voting criteria you referred to.

The final exit deal has to be approved by the European Parliament and by the other EU leaders - excluding the UK - using a 'reinforced' qualified majority. That means it has to be agreed by "at least 72% of the members of the Council representing Member States comprising at least 65% of the population of these States.

This refers to the vote by the EU to ratify the negotiated exit treaty and has nothing to do with the referendum at all.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #207 on: June 27, 2016, 05:00:50 PM »
Ugh, just read that S&P and Fitch have both downgraded our credit rating - that's all three of them now.  Hilariously Fitch list "lower immigration" as one of the reasons they think the economy will continue to decline. Things are pretty screwed, economy-wise.  FTSE continues to fall, pound continues to fall. 

I actually didn't think an emergency budget was going to be necessary but now I'm starting to change my mind.  Something needs to be done and who knows, maybe its that.

Offline eyeshield22

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #208 on: June 27, 2016, 05:05:32 PM »
It seems like Britain continues to find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place with France, Germany, and Italy declaring no negotiations before article 50 is invoked. It makes sense politically to want to be hard on the UK to prevent other countries that have voiced discontent i.e Czech Republic, and they are also addressing statements made by both Cameron and Johnson about delaying invoking that clause to get a better deal.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3662678/Germany-France-Italy-say-no-informal-talks-Britain-EU-exit.html

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #209 on: June 27, 2016, 05:10:32 PM »
It seems like Britain continues to find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place with France, Germany, and Italy declaring no negotiations before article 50 is invoked. It makes sense politically to want to be hard on the UK to prevent other countries that have voiced discontent i.e Czech Republic, and they are also addressing statements made by both Cameron and Johnson about delaying invoking that clause to get a better deal.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3662678/Germany-France-Italy-say-no-informal-talks-Britain-EU-exit.html

Yeah, no great surprises there.  It's pretty much what was predicted isn't it.

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #210 on: June 27, 2016, 05:30:16 PM »
The fact remains that less than 40% of those eligible to vote voted for this. The will of the British people is unclear and the consequences of leaving severe.  I cannot see a circumstance where forcing the will of a minority through when an almost equal number oaf people are against and over 27% of the electorate not stating a decision is a wise political decision.


This is the way we always choose however. At a general election a party will win an outright majority in the house of commons with as low as 35%-40% of the votes cast. Turnout can be as low as 60%-65% so a party can have an outright majority in the commons with as little as 24% (or thereabouts) of the electorate. We had a referendum only a few years back on the notion of proportional representation for parliament but it was overwhelmingly rejected by the people. So every five years we force the will of a far smaller minority through to make decisions that will impact every facet of our lives for years to come.

Offline Trevino

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #211 on: June 27, 2016, 06:12:22 PM »
This is the way we always choose however. At a general election a party will win an outright majority in the house of commons with as low as 35%-40% of the votes cast. Turnout can be as low as 60%-65% so a party can have an outright majority in the commons with as little as 24% (or thereabouts) of the electorate. We had a referendum only a few years back on the notion of proportional representation for parliament but it was overwhelmingly rejected by the people. So every five years we force the will of a far smaller minority through to make decisions that will impact every facet of our lives for years to come.


If that is the case, would anyone happen to have any statistics showing which demographics had a higher turnout? It would be interesting to see.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 06:13:40 PM by Trevino »

Offline Oniya

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #212 on: June 27, 2016, 06:22:46 PM »
This looks to have some useful breakdowns.  (FT is the Financial Times)

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #213 on: June 27, 2016, 06:43:21 PM »
For some reason, all I get is a popup asking for a subscription plan...but there are other sources out there.  (I've got one, I just would have to find it again.)

Generally speaking - though this is in the US and not the UK, but I would imagine it would be similar over there - the older crowd tends to show up more on election night than the young people.  This is partly because the Boomer generation - those in their 50s to 70s, now - was really the last generation that was able to come of age in an era where political participation was really inculcated and, more importantly, mattered.  Here in the US, the first Boomers came of age during the mid-60s, where political protest and campaigning accomplished things aside from changing the label on the face presented to the nation.

There's a guy I listen to - Kyle Kulinski - who notes that one of the major reasons the current presidential election in the US has been so radically different from past elections is that, unlike past cycles, this time the millennials are getting involved.  Things are changing because young people A: are fed up of a system that's been programmed against them from the start, B: have a candidate (whether you think it's Trump or Sanders) who represents them; and C: are looking at the mess that's being left for them by their parents and going "NOPE! Not having any of that."

The low turnout for young voters has traditionally been attributed to things like 'political apathy,' or ignorance, but those could not be true.  A lot of my millennial friends (I have a lot of them, since I am one) are finally excited about this election because they're talking about things like universal healthcare, universal education, spending more to fix problems at home rather than abroad.  The universal education thing in particular is big - there was an article I'll have to look up again, but one of the things it said that kept the young crowd disinterested was that we were told, in effect, "there's no money to support you going to college, which we've told you all your life you need," and then hearing the people on the political circuit talking about spending more on Medicare and Social Security.

In short, you want young people to vote?  Start talking about issues that matter to them - though that would require getting off your arse and actually speaking to them.

Offline Oniya

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #214 on: June 27, 2016, 06:49:47 PM »
Yeah - when I tried going through the direct link just now it did it to me as well.  I used the Google phrase 'Turnout demographics for Brexit vote' - it may be that coming in through a search engine gives you an opportunity to view the page without the subscription.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #215 on: June 27, 2016, 08:12:57 PM »
Turkey quite frankly has in the 11 years since it applied failed completely to make headway on reaching the criteria for joining. There was never any chance of Turkey joining in the foreseeable future. Politicians certainly said they hoped Turkey might one day join, but the prospect was more wishful thinking than realistic.

I think part of the problem here is that upper-rank politicians who are themselves involved with the higher floors of "big EU" politics and negotiations - or who could be so involved some day - are often very unwilling to separate "wishful thinking" talk, hyperbole and realistic assessments of where things are at, here and now. It just tends to matter more to them that they must not cause trouble or embarrass anyone who is in a negotiation or a campaign (the EU always has a ton of negiotiations and planning going on, and much of it lasting for many years) than to explain to their citizens or to the media what's realistically happening or what we can expect. In this case, yes, Turkey has been on the bench wanting to join for a very long time, and pushing for it: there's not much that's happening (on the surface anyway) and it would be a difficult road ahead, plus frankly nobody wants to have to invest gazillions of  euros in Turkish farming, fishing and railways - but very few top politicians in the EU are going to come out and say that, because it would be "too embarrassing" and "help the wrong people on the political scene". The same with Turkey having a dodgy record on human rights, civic rights (freedom of print, for instance) and decent courts. If any high-level politician said those things to clear the mist a bit, Turkey would fluster and protest, and several politicians and bureaucrats from various countries would rush out and say this is not true, they are a very worthy candidate and a valued brother whom we are taking very seriously.

This kind of technocrat politics might not be unique to the EU but it's accelerated a lot with the growing EU level and the need to drum up support with a bunch of foreign politicians and countries. And the old French/continental trend of talking in hyperboles, buzzwords and opaque periods when it comes to explaining what Europe is about, what it means, hasn't helped things. It just seems to blur the distinction between realistic statements of fact and sugared visions or long-term goals even more. It's become almost impossible, with many politicians, to get them to talk clearly about the difference between ground realities or likely trends in the near future and professed goals - all too often they only want to talk about what they are "working towards" on a ten or fifty year future basis, or what they would like to see get in place. Without even admitting that this is over-the-rainbow talk.

Turkey is strategically a heavyweight country, both because of its location and its being almost the only big "native" muslim power in the near east with a half credible tradition of working democracy and secular society. It's a country that Europe really wants on their side to help handle the ever-present wars in the Levant, the threat of terrorism and so on, and to keep some kind of check on the border regions of Russia, Syria and Iran. So Europe and most European governments really want a good working relationship with Turkey and this gives Ankara some real bargaining chips, but most likely Paris and Berlin don't really want Turkey to join the EU as a full member (it would be a massive headache to have to get them on board with many things once they're in). It would be great if more politicos felt free to talk openly about this but they simply don't, because no one wants to throw a lot of spanners in the works for their EU brothers, or for their own careers.  ^_ ^
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 08:32:31 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Trevino

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #216 on: June 28, 2016, 11:23:24 AM »
Another update; Doesn't look like there is much of a chance that a second referendum will be held: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-what-is-eu-referendum-petition-david-cameron-a7105596.html

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #217 on: June 28, 2016, 02:14:52 PM »
Corbyn got his ass kicked in the vote of no confidence (what a totally unexpected result, right?).  He's decided to carry on and rip the parliamentary Labour party to shreds at precisely the time the Conservatives are ripping themselves to shreds.  Because its not like we're facing a national crisis and need some decisive action, no sirree bob.

Offline Renegade Vile

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #218 on: June 29, 2016, 02:36:51 AM »
Corbyn got his ass kicked in the vote of no confidence (what a totally unexpected result, right?).  He's decided to carry on and rip the parliamentary Labour party to shreds at precisely the time the Conservatives are ripping themselves to shreds.  Because its not like we're facing a national crisis and need some decisive action, no sirree bob.

Decisive action from politicians? What dream land are you living in?!
No, but, this comes as no surprise to me. Whatever happens, it'll be handled poorly and there'll be scapegoats.

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #219 on: June 29, 2016, 12:38:44 PM »
Corbyn got his ass kicked in the vote of no confidence (what a totally unexpected result, right?).  He's decided to carry on and rip the parliamentary Labour party to shreds at precisely the time the Conservatives are ripping themselves to shreds.  Because its not like we're facing a national crisis and need some decisive action, no sirree bob.

Not sure how serious they were, but the SNP put in a motion to be recognised as the official opposition party as they had 54 members and Jeremy Corbyn only had 40 MP's left. It was rejected.

The anti Corbyn MP's have reportedly being looking into the legal question of who actually owns the name the name labour party, presumably with the intention of splitting the party. Despite the vast majority of the MP's being against him it seems they are still uncertain they could unseat him if it was put to a vote of the membership. Or whether they could get the unions that provide 75% of labour donations.

Offline hamish1024

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #220 on: June 29, 2016, 12:40:56 PM »
Heh, I saw the SNP thing. They're taking the piss, of course, but hard not to admire their style.

What I don't get with Corbyn, is that he was obviously pretty torn on the issue of EU membership.

As was the general population.

So... the parliamentary Labour party think that having a leader whose views are reflective of the general mood of the population is a BAD thing?

Or, are they just trying to get a stronger Remain candidate in, now that the battle has passed and has been lost (because they have an aversion to being on the winning side of anything)? Am genuinely confused.

It's very easy to argue that this whole crisis is an entirely Conservative mess (personally, I feel they deserve to lose their reputation for economic competency over this) - but Labour are going out of their way to jump up and down and shout "no, it was our fault, too!". Even though I'm sure I read somewhere that Labour voters backed remain by roughly 60-40.

I'm not especially pro-Corbyn, I just don't understand why Labour don't just shut up and concentrate on cleaning up this Conservative shambles. (I'm not massively partisan, but I'll be annoyed if an unelected Boris is handed the top job as a "reward" for more or less destroying Britain)

Also, it's probably saying something if I have to come to an adult RP site to ask serious political questions :)

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #221 on: June 29, 2016, 01:00:43 PM »

I'm not especially pro-Corbyn, I just don't understand why Labour don't just shut up and concentrate on cleaning up this Conservative shambles. (I'm not massively partisan, but I'll be annoyed if an unelected Boris is handed the top job as a "reward" for more or less destroying Britain)

Also, it's probably saying something if I have to come to an adult RP site to ask serious political questions :)

This goes right back to his election as party leader almost a year ago. 80% of the MP's are Blairite New labour, Corbyn is Old labour and a socialist. They hated him from day one, but could not split off to form their own party because all the grassroots support and unions and their cash were with Corbyn. They simply saw the BREXIT result as the ideal moment to strike. Corbyn was always a Eurosceptic, most analysis I read was of the opinion that they basically blackmailed him into the REMAIN camp with threats of splitting if he did not.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #222 on: June 29, 2016, 02:49:03 PM »
I think that 60-40 split hides some complexity though.  Now, this is purely my own analysis, which is mine, and I'm still noodling around looking for figures so don't ask me for any but: look at the areas one call broadly call "Corbyn strongholds".  The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire.  My home in the North-East.  South Wales.  These working class semi-socialist Labour strongholds.  They voted Leave and overwhelmingly so (although my actual home of Newcastle did us proud and Liverpool which one could class in the same breath also voted Remain - I tend to chalk that to hatred of Johnson though).  Then look at the broadly Blairite regions.  London sticks out like a sore thumb here.  I don't believe Corbyn carried "his" people, in brief.

And if he's allowed in the election for leader, I doubt they could unseat him.  However, as I understand it its not clear he would be.  The issue is that potential candidates require 50-51 MPs supporting them to even be a candidate.  Corbyn doesn't have that.  Apparently, though, there's an argument to be made that the sitting leader can automatically be a candidate.  I haven't terribly followed the complexities of it, lawyers are involved.

Offline Polymorph

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #223 on: June 29, 2016, 04:10:59 PM »
And if he's allowed in the election for leader, I doubt they could unseat him.  However, as I understand it its not clear he would be.  The issue is that potential candidates require 50-51 MPs supporting them to even be a candidate.  Corbyn doesn't have that.  Apparently, though, there's an argument to be made that the sitting leader can automatically be a candidate.  I haven't terribly followed the complexities of it, lawyers are involved.

It's good to have something to watch now that Game of Thrones has finished. Poor Jeremy got stabbed by his brothers more times than Jon Snow.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #224 on: June 29, 2016, 04:47:03 PM »
It's good to have something to watch now that Game of Thrones has finished. Poor Jeremy got stabbed by his brothers more times than Jon Snow.

Quite honestly I can understand why they're annoyed.  They've watched the party they (presumably) care about head down a trail that will cost them the next general election and been cast as undemocratic elites in the process.  Yeah, there's probably some element of revenge here which is obviously not productive but is, I feel, understandable.