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The Elliquian Herald & Post
Issue 74 ~ April thru July 2017

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Author Topic: EU Referendum / BREXIT  (Read 14916 times)

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Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #50 on: June 21, 2016, 03:57:08 AM »
Not really, no. If you look at it, he's right. All they need to do is remove Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaties, and it would not be legally possible for countries to leave the EU. One amendment, that's all it takes. And considering that several top EU Officials have outright stated that they want a United States of Europe with a single military, police force, government, etc etc...well, I don't think it's Tinfoil hatty at all to say "Look how close we are, if they decide to remove that Article, we're fucked." I mean, we're perilously close as it is; even you have to admit that over recent years, the EU has been exerting more and more authority over its member states and sinking its claws into more and more day-to-day life stuff.
I mean, considering how much they've been flexing their muscles recently, the fact that that possibility exists - that they can simple remove Article 50, since it isn't given any unique, special protection - the fact that it's the same wording as an attempted Charter Change and the fact that several EU officials and politicians have said that it's their end goal....I don't think it's Tinfoily at all to say "Hey, this should be ringing alarm bells." It might not happen this year, or next year, or even the year after that...but they WILL try it, I'm absolutely certain. This isn't a "9/11 was an inside job" or "NASA is conspiring to fake the world being a sphere" thing. This is "This corrupt organisation that wants to be a nation in its own right and has stated as such has a possible route to do just that, starting with making it impossible for other countries to legally leave; we should be concerned about what could happen if they decide to remove that Article which is entirely within their power."


Also, from the same channel as before but by a different guy (the first one I linked was a Guest Video):

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide


I had these opinions before I saw these videos, these guys are just better at ordering their thoughts eloquently. I've been a bit off my game recently, so I'll just leave that there and say "Even though I don't always agree with him, I do agree with him on this, he just puts it better than I could." XD

Offline TaintedAndDelishTopic starter

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #51 on: June 21, 2016, 05:32:47 AM »
Quote
I don't think it's Tinfoil hatty at all to say "Look how close we are, if they decide to remove that Article, we're fucked."

Hypothetically speaking, If the EU did remove article 50 the UK left afterwards,, would the EU be able to do anything about it without shooting themselves in the foot?



Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #52 on: June 21, 2016, 05:43:48 AM »
Well, I'm not 100% clear on how it works, but if Amendments are anything like amendments in individual countries, they take a while to draft, propose, push through, etc etc. If the UK started the leaving procedures before the amendment was passed, they wouldn't be bound by the new amendments since they'd exercised their right to leave before it was revoked, so to speak.

But hypothetically speaking, treaties are legally binding documents, and if the UK started its leaving procedures AFTER the Amendment had hypothetically been passed, not only would it be a lot more difficult for the UK to leave in terms of trade agreements, courts, etc - since Article 50 lays out a 2-year negotiation period to establish future relationships, and the UK wouldn't get that if they broke the hypothetical treaty and just left - they would technically be breaking the Lisbon Treaties, which would carry severe penalties since it IS a series of international treaties. Yes, we could try to ignore the penalties, but that would require politicians with a spine, and it's dangerous precedent to set, ignoring international treaty law.


At least, that's how I understand it. I'm not the best when it comes to law - I'm no lawyer - but that's how I THINK it works.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #53 on: June 21, 2016, 06:16:10 AM »
See this is kinda my point. The Lisbon Treaty is a treaty. People can't modify it just because they feel like it. It's an agreement between nations not a "law" in the sense you mean it. There is no mechanism for making the changes you propose. It's tinfoil hat stuff.

Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #54 on: June 21, 2016, 06:22:23 AM »
No, you can amend Treaties, and the European council (or whatever it's called) can go through and propose alterations to it. It goes to a vote, sure, but all they would need is a majority. Since it's a treaty between members of a wider organisation, they can internally amend the treaty, just as the USA and Russia could - if they had a treaty - mutually agree to amend it. Treaties aren't set in stone and therefore untouchable for all eternity; they can be and are often changed as the times themselves change. Since it's a treaty within the EU, the EU parliament and council have authority over it; if the majority of countries agree to an amendment, they can amend it similar to a US Bill. It isn't a treaty between two sovereign and otherwise unconnected countries, it's a treaty within an international organisation.

In any case, as I said; you're just...wrong. Treaties can be changed, altered and amended after the fact as long as the majority of the signers agree. And those that don't agree can easily be pressured into signing anyway.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 06:24:56 AM by Vergil Tanner »

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #55 on: June 21, 2016, 06:28:55 AM »
I'm sorry Vergil, no. That's not true. The Lisbon Treaty itself lays out how Eu treaties are amended. There are three ways of doing it. SRP and passerelle don't apply here leaving ORP. This requires member states to sign and ratify the new treaty, in essence giving them an opt out. I'm not certain where you're getting your information from but it is wrong. The thing you're proposing is literally impossible.

Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #56 on: June 21, 2016, 06:35:30 AM »
Well, no, under your own comment it's not impossible; they'd go through and ratify the new treaty, and with the amount of influence the EU holds in a lot of these countries, do you really think they'd risk being out of the EU, especially considering the fact that the politicians seem intent on keeping people in? And if their people decided to vote against the new treaty in a referendum, what's stopping the EU from pulling a Northern Ireland and telling them to have another Referendum because they didn't get the right answer? If a country is under massive pressure from the rest of the international community to sign, is it really an "Opt Out?"

In any case, they don't really need to remove Article 50 at all to effectively become the United States of Europe in all but name, considering how far they're extending their power and influence into every day lives.

Ok, so, perhaps the USE is a way off and perhaps it won't happen the way I proposed it would. I'll be the first to admit, I'm not the best when it comes to law, so I can't actually say whether you're definitely right or wrong on this. However, considering that top EU officials have outright stated that it's their end goal - and that every new treaty and law is designed to tie the countries in the EU closer together and cede more powers to the EU Council - I still don't think it's unreasonable to draw the conclusion that they'll try it or something similar at some point (especially since they've outright stated that they're starting to draw the plans up for a more integrated Europe in the next month or so, and several politicians within the EU have put their election platform on pushing for an integrated USE), and I personally want no part of it.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 06:39:12 AM by Vergil Tanner »

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #57 on: June 21, 2016, 06:44:36 AM »
I'm really sorry, I think I might be misunderstanding you? As I read your argument, the EU (hypothetically) wants rid of section 50 with no replacement meaning countries can't leave. They then use international pressure to coerce individual member states to sign and ratify with the threat being... What precisely. You mention the Irish referendum (technically you mention a Northern Irish one, I'm assuming you meant Irish, if not can you clarify?) but I'm not clear on the relevance. We, the UK are having an in/out referendum. Are you suggesting that in the case of a "leave" vote there'll be another one? If not, I'm not sure how the Irish one applies.

Anyway. No. There is no mechanism that doesn't invoke hypothetical and counterfactual "international pressure" to allow that to happen. It's not, currently, possible. Its based on a misunderstanding of how the EU works and /or Conspiracy theories.

Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #58 on: June 21, 2016, 06:59:49 AM »
Well, ok, yes, the Article 50 thing might be going a touch far; as I said, not a lawyer, so I'm not 100% clear on how it works.

The Irish one (I think it was Republic, but now you mention it, I can't remember which one it was. It was to do with the Lisbon Treaties, I think) was more to illustrate the corruption and the whole "If we get an answer we don't like, we might make you vote again." Either way, a second referendum is possible - given that referendums aren't legally binding - but unlikely given how Cameron has publicly stated that there won't be a second one, and if there is a second one, he may well get crucified by the media and the general populace.

But anyway, I can't say how they might try to do it, or how it might happen - I'm not there, I don't know what their plans are - all I can go off of is their intentions, and if they say that they want to create a closer, more unified Europe and there are politicians in the European Parliament pushing for it, I have to wonder if there isn't some way of them doing it that I don't know about. The fact of the matter is that leading EU officials and powerful politicians within the EU all want it and are all pushing for it, and I'd rather be safe than sorry over it. There may well be no current way to do it, but all it takes is a treaty or two that overrides or amends The Lisbon Treaties further down the line - or, worst case scenario, a new Charter - and suddenly we're on that road. Again, perhaps I went overboard with the Article 50 stuff based on a misunderstanding, but you've got to concede that there are a LOT of politicians and officials within the EU that want a unified USE or something similar...and that in and of itself is cause for concern, considering how Britain in particular has been outvoted or just flat out ignored in past votes on EU legislation. We don't have a say, really, in EU legislation or policy...so what if they start acting on their ambitions, and Britain gets outvoted?

Maybe it isn't gonna happen next year, or the year after, or even the year after that...but the fact of the matter is that there are Officials and Politicians who WANT a USE, and that concerns me enough to think "Ok, maybe we should look at this and think whether we want to risk it."


Of course, that's a distant concern; as concerned as I am about a USE, that's still a long way off and isn't my primary reason for wanting out of the EU. It's a factor, yes, but it's not like I'm basing my entire vote on a "Maybe could," haha. I'm more concerned with the immediate reality of the EU's growing influence and control over UK law, and the fact that we pay the most into the EU and get the least out, and keep being asked to prop up failing economies at our own expense. That's the abridged version, at least. Though politicians and Officials in Europe have outright stated that they're aiming to create an effective USE - and I say to that "FUCK THAT" - that's a long term concern, rather than the immediate issues of staying inside the EU, especially since Camerons "New Deal" could easily be vetoed and we'd be left in the same unsatisfactory position as before.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #59 on: June 21, 2016, 07:08:01 AM »
First off, as Neroon has pointed out, we get our desired results on EU policy considerably more than most countries. I'm not sure where your claims of us having little real influence come from, do you have a source?

But that's a side issue. You state that the hypothetical USE is a bad thing but offer no reason why? I'm not convinced that it will happen but even if it does you've offered nothing beyond assertion that it's a negative. What's your issue here?

Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #60 on: June 21, 2016, 07:40:31 AM »
Well, hypothetically speaking, if we got a USE there would be several major issues.

-- For a United States of ANYTHING to be successful, it has to have a unified national civic identity, and it has to be widely accepted by all within those United States. This typically comes from some kind of foundation narrative, a war for unification, etc etc (EG, the Prussian Wars for Unification, the American War for Independence, etc etc). That, at this point in time, doesn't exist in Europe. For and Against European camps are roughly split down the middle, so any USE would already be on weak footing, since peoples national identities would still be "English, German, French, etc etc" rather than "European," which would make lots of infighting and destructive bickering more likely. Plus, you'd find that a lot of Germans would vote for the German candidate for presidency rather than the "best" one, because they would identify more with the German candidate. It wouldn't be like in the USA, where everybody regardless of state largely identifies as "AMERICAN." Considering that only 40% of Europeans trust the EU, and the majority of Europeans claim that the EU Council makes them feel "Powerless," such nationalism is a LONG ASS way off. So the USE would be disadvantaged before it even began.

-- The Euro. The shared currency of the Euro DEMONSTRABLY doesn't work; the Eurozone has been in crisis for decades now, and countries keep failing and faltering. Combining these economies into one would likely be disastrous and lead to several more recessions and bankruptcies, especially with a failing currency.

-- The sheer size of the population and variety of cultural identities NOT bound together through a national identity would create MASSIVE amounts of strain and pressure, to the point where a LARGE amount of peoples wishes are overridden by other peoples, and if a larger country votes for something and a smaller country (well, in this case, state) votes against something, the smaller state will be affected because it was basically outvoted by a larger member. Yes, this happens in other "United States," but with the populations being so drastically different (if the current EU became the USE, not including prospecting members, that would be 508 million people Vs the USA's 318 million, so the issues would be massively exacerbated) and the cultures being so focused rather than as spread out as they are in the USA, for example, it could lead to some countries feeling like they're being left out or ignored, which then strains the already weak European National Identity.

You might look at the USA and imagine a European version, but in order for America to work vast amounts of money are transferred from rich areas to poor ones and entire states are abandoned to economic decline because of the cost of saving them. It's true that large areas of the economy benefit from the US system, but others lose out as a consequence, which because of the concentrated national identities of the "States" in this scenario, many in a USE wouldn't accept since they'd feel EXTRA victimised since GOOD LUCK getting rid of the "English" or "French" national identity that has built up over thousands of years of history rather than the USA, whose states were NEVER independent nations. Not to mention, in the USA there was a civil war to keep the union together and enforce the idea that the national government could override the wishes of the states. Can you even IMAGINE how brutal a European Civil War could be over that exact subject?

-- None of the states that stand to lose out from a USE would agree without massive concessions which would limit the power and authority of the central government, which in turn would weaken everyone else's perception of what such an institution would be like.

-- But assuming that you got past all that, and the USE became a Superpower Nation with "european Nationalism," would you even want it? Think about it. If you take that to its logical conclusion, you end up with a world made up of a handful of superpower federations, which will inevitably mean tensions as they chafe against one another. It might well end up being Europe, the US, China, the West and Central African confederation, the Islamic Republic, and so on. And historically speaking...having a group of Superpowers rather than dozens of minor powers NEVER ends well.

-- As for a United European army, police force, etc...well, that again requires Nationalistic European Identity, which doesn't really exist, and what if the UK or French sections get sent to a war the "state" doesn't want to be involved in? Again, this goes back to the whole "Used to be sovereign nations" thing, and is anybody under the impression that a unified European military WITH a European national identity would be a good thing? Look how much a nationalistic AMERICAN army has fucked up recently, with no oversight or people to answer to!

-- Do you really think that people in France, UK, Germany, etc etc would want to give ALL of their powers over to what they would consider a foreign council, so far removed from their own culture that they may as well be in a different continent altogether? The UK, for example, already chafes at the restrictions imposed on it by the EU courts and legislation, so how bad would the unrest get if we had to give over ALL of our sovereign powers? And that's assuming that the USE would be democratically elected; if it worked any similarly to how it works now, the president of the USE wouldn't even be voted for by the people, since the general populaces NOW don't have any real say in who's in charge over in Brussels.

-- You have the fact that everybody speaks a different language, there's NO cultural or historical common ground between - for example - people in the UK and in Bulgaria which would harm any unification attempts since people wouldn't identify with each other, different areas have different economies that won't mesh together particularly well, people are already a bit iffy about free movement between countries - how much worse would that get when ANY border control is taken out of their hands - AND the fact that if (when) the USE crashes due to its weak currency and the vast area it has to juggle, it would drag the world into another world recession since that would be a good...what, fifth? Quarter of the world suddenly experiencing a crash?


There's more, but I'm busy this afternoon so can't spend hours writing this. But basically, the USE would have MASSIVE pitfalls and obstacles to overcome, and even if they managed it, it would be a massive disaster from start to finish, especially with such a weak currency and filled with ALREADY failing countries that are dragging everybody elses economies down with them.



Anyway, I said I didn't really want a debate since I'm not the best with numbers and law - I'll freely admit that - and the possible USE is a long term concern rather than my immediate reasoning (my issues are more with sovereignty, the unelected nature of the EU Council and their habit of meddling in our internal affairs and to a lesser extent, the economy), so this will likely be my last post here. I have a lot of stuff to do on my day off, then I have a busy few days at work...and then it's after the Referendum, at which point this whole debate is kinda moot. So...thank you for the thinking points, thank you for correcting me on the Article 50...um, let's see....sorry if I came across as overly aggressive or condescending or anything in this - I tend to write off the top of my head, so I don't always phrase things correctly - and thank you for not getting angry at me. ;)

Chou!
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 07:43:55 AM by Vergil Tanner »

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #61 on: June 21, 2016, 07:47:58 AM »
That seems like a long list of reasons a USE is impossible. It's pretty much the same as the list I'd give it asked why I think it would never happen. Yet despite that, despite the fact it would face so very many obstacles to its setup and to its functioning you think it will happen? Really? If "despite the fact that such an entity would be demonstrably crippled and is opposed by everyone if it ever happened, I still think it will and it should weigh in your voting" isn't scaremongering I'm genuinely not clear what is.

Online Vergil Tanner

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #62 on: June 21, 2016, 08:08:19 AM »
Ok, one more post:

It doesn't really matter why I think it wouldn't work. The fact is, there are still people within the EU that are pushing for it to happen anyway, and that should at least concern us.

Also, I specifically stated that it was extremely minor in my decision several times. As I said, it's more of a long term concern that isn't really informing my vote all that much compared to the other factors. I've said that several times now.

Anyway....I will bow out of the thread now - permanently - since I've got a lot to do and don't have time for this thread until after it becomes irrelevant XD

Offline Beorning

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #63 on: June 22, 2016, 03:30:20 PM »
Ugh. The referendum is tomorrow... I really fear for the results :(

Offline Nachtmahr

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #64 on: June 23, 2016, 08:32:41 PM »
No matter which side you're on, this is one of the most thrilling votes I've ever seen. I'm watching it live as I type this and have been for about 4 and a half hours now, and it's a real tug of war between the two.

Offline consortium11

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #65 on: June 23, 2016, 10:41:12 PM »
BBC has just called it for Leave.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #66 on: June 23, 2016, 10:55:35 PM »
BBC has just called it for Leave.

Yup. Just got the news alert from my BBC news app.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #67 on: June 23, 2016, 11:09:42 PM »
Pound has collapsed to a thirty year low.

Offline Beorning

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #68 on: June 23, 2016, 11:46:39 PM »
Nooooo..! :(

Offline Khoraz

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #69 on: June 23, 2016, 11:49:56 PM »
Pound has collapsed to a thirty year low.
It's a knee jerked reaction,  that's all.

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #70 on: June 23, 2016, 11:55:37 PM »
Nooooo..! :(

Yup.  We didn't get Labour.  That was always going to be the worry.  Lower socioeconomic groups consistently polled for Brexit and Corbyn just isn't the man to address that.  The split was pretty standard throughout - higher educated and broadly middle class people voted Remain, poorly educated and working class people voted Leave.  Putting Cameron as the face of the campaign for so long was a mistake - he was never going to appeal to that group - but Labour failed to deliver it's voters. 

Obviously I'm not saying Gove and Johnson somehow magically appealed to the North or anything, honestly I'd suspect they were less popular than Cameron in some Leave areas, but that EU expansion immigration mess meant that Leave had a good chance in the North if it had been fronted by Lord Fontleroy.  They took our jobs.

It's a knee jerked reaction,  that's all.

Wow

Offline Khoraz

Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #71 on: June 24, 2016, 12:01:42 AM »
Well it is - people universally don't like change and a vote that's unexpected, with the potential to change so much, would only naturally cause a lot of people to panic. We've only been part of the EU for I think 47 years?  Something like that - that's not a long time - I think the pound wasn't in the gutter before then.

Still, single word responses don't add much, so there's nothing really that I can say. Plus the results aren't actually in yet.

I think it's important to say as well that the turn out was so high. 72% or there abouts. Pretty impressive, whatever the result.

Offline Nachtmahr

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #72 on: June 24, 2016, 12:04:59 AM »
As one outlet put it: "Regardless of how you look at this, it's a revolution. We'll just have to wait and see if it's a good one or not."

Offline Kythia

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #73 on: June 24, 2016, 12:06:00 AM »
The pound was in the gutter before then, but directly comparing Britain in 1973 to Britain in 2016 is likely a mistake.

However.  The global financial crash did less damage to our currency.  The collapse of Lehman Brothers did less damage to our currency.  George Soros did less damage to our currency.  Obviously it will rally but dismissing it as a knee jerk reaciton is kinda Pollyanna ish don't you think?  It's really quite bad.

But yeah, turnout was really good.  I actually noticed it in my own local polling station.  Plural of anecdote isn't data and all that but it seemed a lot more busy than usual.

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Re: EU Referendum / BREXIT
« Reply #74 on: June 24, 2016, 12:11:31 AM »
The whole thing going on with immigration did seem a bit the key of why people were pushing for Brexit.  One of the British commentators I follow - a gay libertarian named Milo Yiannopolous - noted that there was a Gallup poll detailing the attitudes of Muslims living in the UK.  According to the pool, out of 1000 British Muslims:

52% said homosexuality should be illegal (vs 11% of the general population)
47% said gays shouldn't be allowed to teach in schools (vs 14%)
40% said that a woman should always obey her husband (vs 5%)
35% said that Jews had too much power (vs 9%)

Sociological commentary on the poll suggested that, in contrast to most trends, Muslims who leave the Middle East and live in the West do not become more liberal, but more conservative.

Now, this is but one specific aspect of what's been happening, but I think worry and fear of the possibility of allowing in more immigrants - whether or not they're refugees or simply economic migrants - who hold these attitudes.  Not to mention the problems that I've been hearing with the failure of immigrants to assimilate into the national culture (which is one of the key components of a national identity, which you need to be a nation).