War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Thufir Hawat]

I am forever disappointed in humans. We go on the Moon, but we cannot stop wars.

"War. War never changes".
Also, it's part of nature, and you can't change that (or if you could, the law of unintended consequences is bound to rear its ugly head).
Every species that reaches sufficient numbers in a single organisational structure, has wars, regardless of whether we're talking humans or ants .

And we were told all the sacrifices for the euro (costs, changes, loss of identity in some way) were "SO THERE WOULD BE NO WAR EVER AGAIN IN EUROPE"

Obviously, that refers to the EU itself, and between EU members.
The thing that protects the EU from foreign threats is colloquially known as NATO .

[Humble Scribe]

Elon Musk once again proves he is a thin-skinned asshole.

In other news, Russia's retaliatory strike for the Kerch Bridge bombing seems to have mostly depleted its armoury of its remaining precision guided weapons and galvanised the West into providing Ukraine with better air defences. These probably won't stop missile strikes, but they will make it even more difficult for Russia to operate aircraft and helicopters over Ukraine, something it is already finding difficult, hence the reliance on missiles and artillery. In a few months it may find it impossible.

[Dashenka]

I have no love for Musk but he spent 100 million of his own dollars into the whole Starlink system providing internet for the country and the military.

Wouldn't call him thin skinned.

[Oniya]

He's making a decision that affects an entire nation, apparently based on one person's use of an expletive - namely shutting down that Starlink system.  That's almost the definition of thin-skinned.

Alternatively, he could conceivably be making a dive for the deep pockets of the Pentagon (the bit of the article that I was able to read without registering mentions that he wants the Pentagon to pay for it).  He knows that he has the whole country over a barrel and that someone will pay up.  That's almost the definition of an asshole.

[Beorning]

Also, he recently proposed a "peace plan" for Ukraine, which involved him promoting the view that the war is senseless, Ukraine cannot win and the status of Donbas should be settled by the way of yet another vote...

[Dashenka]

What I understood is that he wants the Pentagon to pay from now on.

Which isn't that far fetched in my opinion. Starlink is a private business. He didn't have to set up the connection to Ukraine, he did so anyway. The Pentagon is spending 40 billion dollars on Ukraine? What's an extra 200 million?

He made a decision to help Ukraine. If he did get scorned by Ukraine, of course you'd feel pissed off. When you help somebody (and let's be honest, he's helping Ukraine BIG TIME) and they treat you like shit, there can be consequences.

Petty? Maybe... But only human.

I think people forget Musk is doing Ukraine a huge favour. We've all seen on the other side what a lack of proper communication can do. So the Starlink satellites are a huge asset to Ukraine. Scorn him and he'll fuck off, as somebody obviously wanted. See how Ukraine fares without the Starlink.

I think we all know the answer.

[TheGlyphstone]

Zelensky told him that because Musk told him to roll over and surrender by letting Russia keep what it stole and murdered for. You are 100% right that treating someone like shit has consequences; Musk treated the Ukrainians like shit, and these are the consequences. Him retaliating like this because they didn't bow down and obey is indeed very petty and thin-skinned.

[Dashenka]

I didn't know Musk told Zelenskiy what to do. Apologies.

[TheGlyphstone]

Besides, this is Elon Musk we're talking about. $100 million is pocket change for him.

[Dashenka]

I know. But that's irrelevant. Or rather, it shouldn't be relevant. The money comes from SpaceX, not Musk himself.

How much money somebody has is not relevant for the amount of help somebody should give or not.

[firepyre]

Zelensky told him that because Musk told him to roll over and surrender by letting Russia keep what it stole and murdered for. You are 100% right that treating someone like shit has consequences; Musk treated the Ukrainians like shit, and these are the consequences. Him retaliating like this because they didn't bow down and obey is indeed very petty and thin-skinned.

Correction. Andrij Melnyk made the fuck off tweet. As more of a personal response. Not Zelensky. Zelensky made a poll in response asking if people preferred a Musk who supports Ukraine or one who supports Russia.

Elon Musk's... suggestion, isn't entirely out of the blue either. It's based on an observation of the political divide in Ukraine, where, at least prior to the war, most of the occupied states were indeed more pro-russian leaning. Furthermore, he wasn't suggesting them giving them to russia(with the exception of crimea for reasons, I don't entirely follow), but holding a legitimately impartial referendum instead. How do you think that would go for russia?

The neutral stipulation is a much harder pill to swallow, but that stems from Russia's pre war demands. I think that's simply an assumption that Russia would simply refuse to even consider it otherwise. It's there to get Russia to the table. Ukraine isnt neutral. Clearly. But there's neutral, and then there's "neutral".

Whatever you think of Musk, he's actually usually fairly logical. Even if he's a bit of an asshole, and definitely a showboat. Him suggesting he'd back off starlink support is just a further reflection of his shift of view from something ideological to something more pragmatic.

Pettiness is probably a factor as well, but I doubt it's as simple as a dummy spit. The ongoing costs of providing starlink for free are probably enormous. Being filthy rich, and having the liquidity to continue to fund expensive PR stunts indefinitely are not the same thing.

[Azuresun]

Correction. Andrij Melnyk made the fuck off tweet. As more of a personal response. Not Zelensky. Zelensky made a poll in response asking if people preferred a Musk who supports Ukraine or one who supports Russia.

Elon Musk's... suggestion, isn't entirely out of the blue either. It's based on an observation of the political divide in Ukraine, where, at least prior to the war, most of the occupied states were indeed more pro-russian leaning. Furthermore, he wasn't suggesting them giving them to russia(with the exception of crimea for reasons, I don't entirely follow), but holding a legitimately impartial referendum instead. How do you think that would go for russia?

Do all the thousands of Ukranians in those regions who were murdered by Russians get a vote? It's BS.

Also, expect Russia to ship in thousands more Russians before holding any vote, because Russia. Shambolic masquerades that ape how a democracy works are what Putin does, and he does them masterfully well.

The neutral stipulation is a much harder pill to swallow, but that stems from Russia's pre war demands. I think that's simply an assumption that Russia would simply refuse to even consider it otherwise. It's there to get Russia to the table. Ukraine isnt neutral. Clearly. But there's neutral, and then there's "neutral".

"Neutral" is a Russian talking point, and flat-out absurd. Demanding Ukraine not take protective measures against a nation that's been fucking around with and actively attacking them for decades (and trusting that unlike the last few times, Putin won't just engineer another false flag to annex a bit more) is...stupid. Utter gibbering absurdity. No nation that had a choice would leave themselves vulnerable against a neighbour that predatory.

(Also, notice how "neutral" goes with the Russian narrative that NATO is an active enemy of Russia, rather than a defensive alliance.)

It's pure Krainesplainin' on Musk's part, from a tiresome attention whore.

[firepyre]

A follow up on the whole starlink saga: After doing an incredibly cursory dive into the story, it is apparent that the letter asking the pentagon to take over funding was sent sometime in December, well before Musk made his inflammatory comments, so clearly it cannot be a kneejerk reaction on Musk's part, and any attempts to imply that it is just unscrupulous media behaviour intended to sensationalise things.

Do all the thousands of Ukrainians in those regions who were murdered by Russians get a vote? It's BS.

Also, expect Russia to ship in thousands more Russians before holding any vote, because Russia. Shambolic masquerades that ape how a democracy works are what Putin does, and he does them masterfully well.

I would argue that Putin is terrible at aping democracy, because even an idiot can see through it. Besides, Ukraine has a population of like 40 million. The idea that Putin could sneak in enough Russians to somehow make a difference is utterly ridiculous. It's worth noting too that while those regions are historically more favorable towards Russia, they still voted overwhelmingly to become independent from Russia during the dissolution of the USSR. There's no reason to think this time would be any different. Crimea was the only place where it was even remotely close.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

My point is what Musk was suggesting only really looks good for Russia on a very superficial level. The reality of it is basically just going back to the 2014 status quo. Presumably Musk thinks that's probably the best possible outcome Ukraine can hope to achieve.

Putting feelings aside, I don't think the underlying logic is particularly unreasonable. Musk's ideas are simply prioritizing the minimization of bloodshed over political or ideological factors. I think everyone can agree that saving lives is a good thing, the issue is simply that the Ukrainian people have lost so much already that the idea of coming out with nothing to show for it is nigh unconscionable.

I'm not saying I agree with Musk... I'm more interested in riding the fence to see how things turn out than in forming a firm opinion. But there is some validity to his view, just as there is to the view that Ukraine should keep fighting and try to push Russia out entirely, and protect their sovereignty & security. How much freedom is a life worth?

[Numerion]

I would argue that Putin is terrible at aping democracy, because even an idiot can see through it. Besides,

The goal of the referenda is not in making the claims look legitimate, but to muddy the water around the arguments.
Even in the west if you are arguing with somebody about this, they suddenly have this extra claim that you have to waste time and energy on. A claim that is obviously wrong but it's there. 

We have the same here. Political Party S is in a dire situation because there is an ongoing investigation into their funding and relations with mafia. Party S submits *obviously* wrong suggestions for referenda that get shot down on basis of being wrongly worded. Those suggestions get shot down. Suddenly, they have this "we are being censored and our freedom is being oppressed" argument going.

Its not about getting a result, its about using that result as ammo.

[TheGlyphstone]

I guess I did misjudge Musk here then. It would have been consistent with previous volatility, but he's innocent this time so to speak.

Now I'm wondering if he needs that Starlink money to afford his Twitter buyout.

[firepyre]

In my above post December should have been September. I blame autocorrect. That is all

[Dashenka]

Demanding Ukraine not take protective measures against a nation that's been fucking around with and actively attacking them for decades (and trusting that unlike the last few times, Putin won't just engineer another false flag to annex a bit more) is...stupid. Utter gibbering absurdity.

Except...

If it's truly the Ukrainian army who's behind the attacks on Belgorod (which is unknown at this stage) it's no longer purely defensive.

No nation that had a choice would leave themselves vulnerable against a neighbour that predatory.

Yet here we are. Ukraine's military is now mostly Western weapons they have been given this year, or Russian equipment they managed to salvage after the Russians retreated. Ukraine wanted to defend themselves against Russia for years but guess who didn't feel like it?



'The West', has left Ukraine to fend for themselves for decades, even supported the orange revolution that, according to many, led to the escalation of it all. It's what 'the west' does best. Destabilize a region and then shrug and be surprised about it. They did it in Afganistan, Iraq and more recently in Syria as well.

Everybody saw this coming, especially since Crim. I remember way back when the war had just started, there was this miles long convoy stuck in the bog just outside Kiev. Biden, BoJo and the entire EU knew why it was there...

"We're sorry, this is a Ukrainian affair, we will not get involved."

The war could have been ended there and then. But only later, with 1/5th of the country being taken and the resources in danger, the weapons started to be delivered.

"We are getting involved now because our gas and oil supply is in danger."

Slightly off topic rant

Forgive my bitterness against the west, I'm not Pro-Russia, quite the opposite actually (unlike some people here believe), I'm just VERY anti-west. It's a bunch of hypocrite wankers deciding how everybody should think and if you dare to disagree with their views you get shit thrown at you. The EU, US and Russia aren't that different in the basics. The believes are different but the reaction is the same. If you disagree with the mainstream, you are treated as an outcast. You're not put to prison (yet) but I can definitely see it happen in the not too distant future.

"You're stupid cause you sympathize with Trump."
"If you're against us in Ykraine, you must be supporting Putin."
"You HAVE to pay more for your electricity. It's the price we must all pay for peace in Ukraine."
"You HAVE to take a knee against racism and if you don't, you are a racist."

And that same 'West' blames Russia (rightfully) for being a totalitarian state.

I left Russia because I didn't feel safe anymore being who I am. I settled in the UK because I thought I could be me without prejudices and hate. But here I am, preferring Trump over Biden, which pisses off almost everybody. Driving a few big cars, pissing off environmentalists. Being against Russia AND the US, which pisses off most of the people. And let's not forget the hate I get because I refuse to take a knee or fly a rainbow flag, so I must be a racist homophobe.

This shit doesn't only happen in Russia. I live in the United Kingdom, a country claiming to be free and supportive of everybody. Freedom is a fucking illusion....


..yet we send people out to die for it.

[Vekseid]

'The West', has left Ukraine to fend for themselves for decades, even supported the orange revolution that, according to many, led to the escalation of it all. It's what 'the west' does best. Destabilize a region and then shrug and be surprised about it. They did it in Afganistan, Iraq and more recently in Syria as well.

This is Russian thinking. It does not correspond to reality.

In Ukraine and Syria especially.

Believing there are only two legitimate actors in the world, and that other nations and the peoples who make them up do not have their own agency. Pieces move on a chessboard, controlled by an actor.

Never taking responsibility for your own actions. Never your own fault.

"The big bad west interfered!" "The boyars fucked up."

More than anything else, it is thinking like this that has caused the current atrocities in Ukraine. Not you directly, but every Russian who has swallowed this bullshit to the point of leading their own nation to ruin over it.

All to pretend it is someone else's responsibility, and not yours.

Everybody saw this coming, especially since Crim. I remember way back when the war had just started, there was this miles long convoy stuck in the bog just outside Kiev. Biden, BoJo and the entire EU knew why it was there...

"We're sorry, this is a Ukrainian affair, we will not get involved."

The war could have been ended there and then. But only later, with 1/5th of the country being taken and the resources in danger, the weapons started to be delivered.

...and it rarely gets compounded in the same exact thought like this.

"The West should stop interfering."

"The West should have interfered sooner and harder!"

The US was supplying and training Ukraine since the invasion of Crimea. We got them to partially un-fuck their command structures, and prior to the invasion they were given detailed plans about how exactly Russia was planning their invasion.

Meanwhile France in particular was opposing all of this. Fucking selling IR equipment to Russia instead.

Then they won. Proved they weren't going to fold like the Afghans did.

Then, as with all aid from 'the west' since the first Crusade, logistic networks were laid and aid came rolling in.

Because it was proven they could do something.

The West doesn't like throwing good money after bad. That was all that was at play here.

The US and UK believed Russia's decapitation strike would succeed, because if it were the US doing it, it would have worked. So the American and British aid was tailored accordingly - prepare to make the invasion ridiculously expensive for Russia.

Reality asserted itself and that is why the nature of the aid they received changed.

"We are getting involved now because our gas and oil supply is in danger."

I have no idea where you get this logic from. Europe is collectively choosing to suffer economically and physically for Ukraine's benefit, cutting themselves off from a major source of gas and paying more for oil.

Hell, the only reason Saudi Arabia are acting as they are is because Biden genuinely tried to do the right thing.

It may play out, in the long run. An intervention in Iran would be telling.

[RedRose]

As a French I can tell you we have crazy prices, and shortages unworthy of a modern country. The pharmacist told my husband he needs to stock up on my migraine pills. I've heard of epidural shortages in Israel and Canada. This is fucking insane. People also don't get how "Ukraine" causes all this and if it gets worse I don't know, maybe we will have yellow jacket riots again. The last uber I took? He hadn't worked the day before because he couldn't find gasoline. If trucks fall victim to this, then what isn't a shortage now will be in shortage when it can't be delivered.

[GloomCookie]

Ukraine is a symptom of the problem.

Russia has Siberia, an area of incredible natural resources that Russia has absolutely no qualm about selling to other nations, especially China and Europe. As long as the supplies flow, prices are cheap, everyone's happy. Where Ukraine becomes an issue is not that Ukraine itself is causing shortages, but is showing Russia's true nature of using its natural resources to its advantage on the world stage, and Putin thinking he can get away with it all. Now that it's becoming apparent he's just a giant bully, many nations that were former customers are telling him he can choke on his own gas. At first, Putin thought he had the upper hand with the supply, but when the demand dries up, now he has no power. Coupled with international pressures, and Russia is fine pulling back and making life difficult on everyone.

The sudden shortage of otherwise plentiful resources just a few years ago is further compounded by global supply chain issues made abundantly clear from the Covid-19 lockdowns, which brought a lot of crucial shipping to its knees. Entire portions of the global supply chain ground to a halt, and so demand spikes even if the nations supplying them had the stuff sitting in containers on the dock ready to go out. Ships can only be loaded, travel, and unloaded so fast, and if any part of that supply chain is compromised, such as a lack of trucks, gasoline, drivers, etc., then that becomes a bottleneck. That bottleneck only gets worse when the supply of raw materials is suddenly under threat, such as Russia acting like a petulant child and pulling back.

Then, when nations like Saudi Arabia and organizations like OPEC start to muddy the waters with deliberate sanctions and putting restrictions on oil and gas exports, while also claiming that they're not affiliated with Russia, it makes the situation worse. Now there's no supply, but demand still exists, and now the demand is made worse.

Amateurs talk about tactics, professionals talk about logistics.

[firepyre]

This is Russian thinking. It does not correspond to reality.

In Ukraine and Syria especially.

Believing there are only two legitimate actors in the world, and that other nations and the peoples who make them up do not have their own agency. Pieces move on a chessboard, controlled by an actor.

Never taking responsibility for your own actions. Never your own fault.

"The big bad west interfered!" "The boyars fucked up."

I think this is also an oversimplification. While it is true that there are a lot more players than just "the West" and "the rest", it is also true that the USA, and to a lesser extent, the EU have an extreme concentration of power, and as such, have a disporportionate influence on the world stage.

Americans look to Russia and think "Good god, how can you let yourselves be ruled by a crook like putin?". Meanwhile the rest of the world looks to the USA, and thinks "How the fuck did you let your government get that bad?". It's the same thing. People outside of America don't see an american dream - they see an American nightmare. That even goes for those of us who generally share western ideals, so it must be that much worse in countries that don't.

The West gets blamed for a lot of the world's problems. That's because the West has the greatest ability to do something about them. As such, it has the greatest responsibility to act on them, and can expect the greatest share of the blame if they fail to do so adequately.

"Oh, but we have the biggest economies!" you say "we should have the most power!"

I suppose that depends on if you are more of a capitalist, or a democrat first. If you are a capitalist first, then you'd be quite right. But that is basically saying only the rich should be allowed to make rules. And that doesn't go down well anywhere.

If you're a democrat first, on the other hand... Go take a look at a population map sometime. The greatest population by far is in asia, around the India + China area. So if you think in terms of majority rule, then clearly, China and India should have the greatest influence in world geopolitics.

I'm not saying we should just roll over and let china do whatever. It's just food for thought, and a bit of a hint as to why countries like china and russia love to be so hostile towards the West for apparently no good reason...

As for Saudi Arabia using the current situation to milk massive profits off the West for their oil... That's just capitalism. There's only so much non-Russian oil to go around, and west has come along (since they don't want to buy russian oil any longer), and priced everyone else out of the market. If the West wants to pinch oil that was intended for everyone else, why shouldn't they pay for abusing that privledge? It's not like they can just magically start producing 15m barrels of oil per day, rather than the 10m or so they've been producing for the last 40 years. That's not how infrastructure works.

Australia has been doing the exact same thing to China with iron ore. High demand, and there's only so much supply, so we end up charging exorbitant amounts over the cost of production, and then wonder why China is so unhappy with us.

[midnightblack]

As a French I can tell you we have crazy prices, and shortages unworthy of a modern country. The pharmacist told my husband he needs to stock up on my migraine pills.

Regrettable as that is, people like you and me ultimately have no real reason to complain. Our lives are more expensive, sure, and various things are harder to come by, but at the end of the day we still have our lives in more or less the same order they were 12 months ago. We still have our homes, our jobs, our hobbies and our loved ones. The luckiest in Ukraine need to start over from nothing in foreign countries as it's very likely that there simply isn't anything left for them at all back home. Not even the cities if they've been reduced to dust. The unlucky ones die in mud-filled trenches at an age younger than yours or mine while defending their homes and loved ones from a delusional dictator. In light of that, personally I would find it indecent to complain if I end up needing to throw an extra blanket on this winter.

People also don't get how "Ukraine" causes all this and if it gets worse I don't know, maybe we will have yellow jacket riots again.

Well, Ukraine isn't causing anything. Vladimir Putin is. Also a lot of the problems are just aftershocks of the covid crisis and the way it impacted global trade. Putin's rather misguided attempt (I'm being elegant) at reestablishing Imperial Russia is just adding more on top.

[RedRose]

People are allowed to complain. Especially if it touches upon health.

[midnightblack]

People are allowed to complain. Especially if it touches upon health.

There's a slight difference between catching a cold next winter due to a lower ambient temperature in the interior and being tortured to the brink of death. Generally, what we are dealing with as a whole across Europe is nothing compared to the suffering of the Ukrainian people. I will be of old age after what has likely been a pretty decent life all things considered (one can hope), while that country will still be undergoing a reconstruction process. And the lives that were affected by one dictator's delusions will likely never completely recover. It's not even remotely close to the same ballpark of hardships that we are likely to go through, hence my belief that a bit of empathy is in order. 

[Azuresun]

Forgive my bitterness against the west, I'm not Pro-Russia, quite the opposite actually (unlike some people here believe), I'm just VERY anti-west. It's a bunch of hypocrite wankers deciding how everybody should think and if you dare to disagree with their views you get shit thrown at you. The EU, US and Russia aren't that different in the basics. The believes are different but the reaction is the same. If you disagree with the mainstream, you are treated as an outcast. You're not put to prison (yet) but I can definitely see it happen in the not too distant future.

"You're stupid cause you sympathize with Trump."
"If you're against us in Ykraine, you must be supporting Putin."
"You HAVE to pay more for your electricity. It's the price we must all pay for peace in Ukraine."
"You HAVE to take a knee against racism and if you don't, you are a racist."

And that same 'West' blames Russia (rightfully) for being a totalitarian state.

I left Russia because I didn't feel safe anymore being who I am. I settled in the UK because I thought I could be me without prejudices and hate. But here I am, preferring Trump over Biden, which pisses off almost everybody. Driving a few big cars, pissing off environmentalists. Being against Russia AND the US, which pisses off most of the people. And let's not forget the hate I get because I refuse to take a knee or fly a rainbow flag, so I must be a racist homophobe.

This shit doesn't only happen in Russia. I live in the United Kingdom, a country claiming to be free and supportive of everybody. Freedom is a fucking illusion....

If you support Trump, you support women being denied access to abortion (and whatever his junta in the Supreme Court goes for next, be that contraceptive or marriage rights).You support the systematic oppression and dehumanisation of LGBT+ people. You support armed insurrections trying to overthrow legal elections, threats of political violence, fawning praise for Russia, the embrace of conspiracy theories over science, and the praising of Actual Effing Nazis. You cannot now seriously claim you don't know what sort of human he is, or what his cult stands for and wishes to accomplish.

You can take whatever stances you like, you can make whatever statements you like about your unwillingness to show support for LGBT+ rights or the lives of black people. You won't be imprisoned, tortured or killed for saying that, because the UK is a free country. You may, however, experience consequences or criticism of those choices.