War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[TheGlyphstone]

I mean, its not like murdering civilians is something they haven't been doing since the start of the war. So it doesn't surprise me at all.

If Putin agreed to withdraw all his forces from occupied territory, everyone would be happy to stop fighting. You don't get to break into someone's house, steal the TV, then negotiate to keep the TV in exchange for not also stealing their computer.

[Azuresun]

Why are we all surprised? Nobody wants diplomacy. Everybody wants to continue fighting. This is the result.


Corner the bear and he'll fight back. Panic and random or not.

Did people seriously think that Russia wouldn't strike back after all the land they lost and the bridge being blown up? I wonder.

If you don't want people to think you're shifting the blame away from Russia, maybe don't post stuff like this. The blame starts and ends with Russia, nobody "made" them do anything.

Ukraine would probably be very happy to stop fighting, but for some bizarre reason, "let Putin only wipe out a part of our country and people and hope he won't be back for the rest later" isn't an acceptable condition. Weird, right?

[Dashenka]

You don't get to break into someone's house, steal the TV, then negotiate to keep the TV in exchange for not also stealing their computer.

If the burglar is a 10 man strong group of people and I'm alone and defenceless, they can have the TV if I get to keep my computer.


If the option is the total destruction of Ukraine, because that is the end goal and the moment NATO countries are out of weapons to supply to Ukraine, that will happen, or give up Donbass...


Sure, if you have a chance of winning, keep fighting but there is none.

[MetroFallout]

Because said 10 man strong group of people is satisfied with stealing just the fucking TV. The Russian Fascists openly adopted Nazi imagery, ideology and their fucking speeches have made it clear that they went to Ukraine to rape, pillage, burn and murder Ukrainian national identity both figuratively and literally. Maybe it's time to stop defending a nation led by the largest concentration of Neo Nazi Fascists in power huh?

[Beorning]

If the burglar is a 10 man strong group of people and I'm alone and defenceless, they can have the TV if I get to keep my computer.

But this is not a group of burglars. This is a gang of psychos who came to kill everyone in the house...

If the option is the total destruction of Ukraine, because that is the end goal and the moment NATO countries are out of weapons to supply to Ukraine, that will happen, or give up Donbass...

And what next? We go back to business as usual? We forget Bucha and other atrocities? We keep treating Russia as if it was a normal country again?

If so, then... how do stop the Russian government coming back for more in a few years?

[MetroFallout]

Humans get second chances in custody, Fascist animals who castrate and kill prisoners of war among many other fucking crimes against humanity and the Ukrainian people get put down like the foul beasts they are. Only use for a Fascist is fertilizer.

[Beorning]

I'd honestly want to hear what Dasha thinks the whole peace plan should be.

Let's say Ukraine gives up Donbas and some sort of peace treaty is made. Let's say it stops the fighting for a moment. Then... what? Should the sanctions against Russia be lifted? Should Putin et al. be welcome at international meetings again?

If so, then... this means that Putin won this round. So, how do we stop him (or his successor) coming back for more?

If not, then what we demand from Russia? And on what grounds we make these demands, keep sanctions in place etc.... if a peace treaty has been made?

[TheGlyphstone]

But this is not a group of burglars. This is a gang of psychos who came to kill everyone in the house...

More to the point, its not a gang yet. Its just one guy, and you are currently beating his face in with a baseball bat. Just because he's threatening to call his friends to help and you'll be helpless against them when your bat breaks is not a reason to 'negotiate'.

[Dashenka]

Because said 10 man strong group of people is satisfied with stealing just the fucking TV. The Russian Fascists openly adopted Nazi imagery, ideology and their fucking speeches have made it clear that they went to Ukraine to rape, pillage, burn and murder Ukrainian national identity both figuratively and literally. Maybe it's time to stop defending a nation led by the largest concentration of Neo Nazi Fascists in power huh?

That's where you negotiate. Putin wants (or needs) peace as soon as possible as well. He never expected this much resistance and thought it would be over soon. If there is even a remote chance of peace by giving him something, why not try it when the alternative is many more deaths and a lot more destruction?

Humans get second chances in custody, Fascist animals who castrate and kill prisoners of war among many other fucking crimes against humanity and the Ukrainian people get put down like the foul beasts they are. Only use for a Fascist is fertilizer.

I agree.

I'd honestly want to hear what Dasha thinks the whole peace plan should be.

Let's say Ukraine gives up Donbas and some sort of peace treaty is made. Let's say it stops the fighting for a moment. Then... what? Should the sanctions against Russia be lifted? Should Putin et al. be welcome at international meetings again?

If so, then... this means that Putin won this round. So, how do we stop him (or his successor) coming back for more?

If not, then what we demand from Russia? And on what grounds we make these demands, keep sanctions in place etc.... if a peace treaty has been made?

You still hold them accountable for what they did, keep the sanctions in place. I never suggested to treat them normal again. I don't know how you got to that. As I said earlier: If there is even a remote chance of peace by giving him something, why not try it when the alternative is many more deaths and a lot more destruction?

Russia is done for anyway. Putin knows this. He lost the war. Give the man a way out or he'll go down fighting and he won't go quietly, we all know that.




My sympathies lie with the Ukrainian civilians. Not with Zelenskiy, NATO and definitely not Russia. I think the common man in cities like Kiev, Lviv and Charkov just want peace and get on with their lives. Let the politics be done by the politicians.

[MetroFallout]

Oh yeah, let's negotiate with a murdering rapist who is actively raping you and cutting you up with the intention of killing you. What are you negotiating? That they stop? Without killing the murdering rapist or otherwise putting them out of commission?

[Thufir Hawat]

I did say before Black October, yes?  That was when Yeltsin did his thing in 1993.

OK, I misunderstood you. I thought you were referring to him retiring in favour of the then-prime minister... Vladimir Putin. My bad, didn't think of the 1993, but that puts your previous post in perspective.

Before that the economy was a shambles, yes, and inflation was terrible.  One doesn't shift from a planned economy to suddenly not overnight without issue - but the opportunity was taken to enrich the wealthy and further entrench the oligarchal class during Yeltsin's tenure, especially after the legislature was out of the way.

Yeah, but the economy isn't what people were afraid of, man! I've been talking with Russian people then and now. Believe me, they were used to privation (and most still are, some would say)!
I'm talking murder of journalists exposing corruption schemes. I'm talking a guy crashing his Moskvich in a foreign car and then being made to take a bank loan against his appartment in order to pay the damages - with draconian percentages, with the contract with the owners being signed on the spot, before the arrival of the law enforcement. I'm talking internal human trafficking, kidnappings, extortion, gangs pushing drugs to everyone, gratuitous violence, all happening on the background of a law enforcement widely seen as corrupt or at least overworked/inefficient. In short, I'm talking about a totally crumbling order...
That's why those years still have a dark fame.

I also don't pretend that levying sanctions against the Russian government doesn't punish the people of Russia by proxy - it absolutely does.  The poorest classes always suffer first, as you said.

Glad we agree.
And yeah, I'm also against this. I don't, however, have any idea of a way around that.

I mean that I think e.g. "Hey, this Russian suddenly seeking asylum to escape the draft?  Fuck that guy, he should'a spoken up sooner, kick him back into Russia and let him suffer for his share of the responsibility of the actions of the Russian government" is wrong, bad, and shortsighted.

If that's what you mean, then I also agree! That's totally misguided and wrong, both on a practical and humanitarian level, IMO.

I think the best way for the sanctions to stop is for Putin to recant his illegal and unrecognized referenda, for Russian troops to go home, and sure - let's have no-shit refereda in the regions in question, see what they want - internationally observed and excluding anyone who moved into those regions during Russian occupation from outside of Ukraine.

Yeah, you also know the odds of that happening, I think. So do I.
And yeah, I don't see a way that avoids the conflict continuing, alas. In fact, my most pessimistic prognosis is currently "Holy Lands 2.0".

Right?

Also,

@Thufir, if it helps, when I say "collective responsibility" I'm referring to the kind of group or mutual responsibility practiced by various authoritarian nations and within most militaries - круговая порука is the Russian, I think, and it has very specific connotations there (I believe - confirmation or refutation from Dashenka would be lovely).

...yeah, the term that you used is fine (I happen to know Russian quite well, thanks to Russian classics). But sanctions aren't that.

The 80's era Russian protest song  Скованные одной цепью - Forged with one Chain, roughly? - is a good example of the idea I'm talking about, or any sort of action where a terrorist attack by a member of an ethnicity or nationality is considered justification for targeting noncombatants who are guilty only of sharing that ethnicity or nationality.

Which is also wrong.
Also, a better translation would be "Locked on the same chain", with an additional connotation being "we're in the same boat". It's not an 1:1 translation, but translations can be 1:1, or good ones, and often you've got to pick.

My word choice is specific and, again, sanctions ain't that.  We're on the same side there.

Well, agreed on that.

[Oniya]

The thread is going to be locked for 24 hours to allow people to take a step back.  It would be advisable to review the rules for this subforum as well as the general rules for the site.

[Oniya]

The thread has been unlocked.  Please remember that the people you are responding to are more than words on a screen.

[stormwyrm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qqARrbi1h8

Now more than ever this whole war between Russia and Ukraine feels exactly like the bigger dick foreign policy theory that George Carlin used to talk about, even more so than the second Iraq War had. Sounds more and more as if someone said that Zelenskyy had challenged and questioned the size of Putin's dick. "What, they have bigger dicks? BOMB THEM!" The Putin regime seems more and more like it is no exception to the point that such dictatorships ("dick"-tatorship ehehe) are all about the cult of machismo as Umberto Eco had once observed.

[midnightblack]

Sounds more and more as if someone said that Zelenskyy had challenged and questioned the size of Putin's dick.

Largely what actually happened, all things considered. Ukraine was slowly drifting towards western structures, which can certainly be interpreted in the language of "their dicks are bigger than yours".

[Azuresun]

My sympathies lie with the Ukrainian civilians. Not with Zelenskiy, NATO and definitely not Russia. I think the common man in cities like Kiev, Lviv and Charkov just want peace and get on with their lives. Let the politics be done by the politicians.

Here's the thing. You're drawing a distinctions between the mythical "common man" of Ukraine and assuming their aims are not the same as Zelensky and NATO for...some reason. That if Zelenesky said "Actually, let's give Russia what they want.", he would stay in office for more than a day after that statement.

Maybe this isn't mindless patriotic fervour and bloodthirst, but a cold recognition of how Russia has worked for decades and an acknowledgement that if they do not lose everything they stole, they absolutely WILL be back for more (like they always have been before). And maybe Ukranians who have been freed from the army of rapists and murderers find it uterly unthinkable to sacrifice their fellow citizens to the savagery of the Orcs.

It comes back to this: Unless we are Ukranians who have experienced this war, we do not get to tell the Ukranians how angry they are allowed to be, nor how they are allowed to defend their home.

[Beorning]

Here's the thing. You're drawing a distinctions between the mythical "common man" of Ukraine and assuming their aims are not the same as Zelensky and NATO for...some reason. That if Zelenesky said "Actually, let's give Russia what they want.", he would stay in office for more than a day after that statement.

Maybe this isn't mindless patriotic fervour and bloodthirst, but a cold recognition of how Russia has worked for decades and an acknowledgement that if they do not lose everything they stole, they absolutely WILL be back for more (like they always have been before). And maybe Ukranians who have been freed from the army of rapists and murderers find it uterly unthinkable to sacrifice their fellow citizens to the savagery of the Orcs.

It comes back to this: Unless we are Ukranians who have experienced this war, we do not get to tell the Ukranians how angry they are allowed to be, nor how they are allowed to defend their home.

I agree on this 100%.

Based on what I know, it's not like Zelensky is prolonging a war most of the Ukrainians don't want. Actually, people who know Ukrainian politics have said the opposite: considering everything that happened, all the destruction and Russian atrocities, Zelensky would be in a lot of trouble if he decided to end the war and give Donbas to Russia...

[firepyre]

Here's the thing. You're drawing a distinctions between the mythical "common man" of Ukraine and assuming their aims are not the same as Zelensky and NATO for...some reason. That if Zelenesky said "Actually, let's give Russia what they want.", he would stay in office for more than a day after that statement.

Maybe this isn't mindless patriotic fervour and bloodthirst, but a cold recognition of how Russia has worked for decades and an acknowledgement that if they do not lose everything they stole, they absolutely WILL be back for more (like they always have been before). And maybe Ukranians who have been freed from the army of rapists and murderers find it uterly unthinkable to sacrifice their fellow citizens to the savagery of the Orcs.

It comes back to this: Unless we are Ukranians who have experienced this war, we do not get to tell the Ukranians how angry they are allowed to be, nor how they are allowed to defend their home.

There's a place for pragmatism too. I think it's reasonable to assume most people have a healthy attachment to their own lives, at which point you have to ask yourself if the cause is really worth dying over. It's very easy to get carried away by ideology, when you are sitting back, safe and sound in a western country. I also think it's a bit disingenuous on behalf of NATO to support Ukraine with weapons and such, yet refuse to genuinely commit to the conflict. If the west was truly the shining example of righteousness or whatever you want to call it, we'd have thrown in with Ukraine in full. Boots on the ground, planes in the sky, nukes be damned. We didn't do that that. Why? Pragmatism. The west doesn't think Ukraine is worth WW3. We're willing to support them... up to a point.

TBH, I don't like it. I think the west's response has been pretty appalling actually. We might not be at fault, but we certainly could have done more. I'd have preferred the all in, and roll the dice. But it is what it is, and at the end of the day, I'm not personally willing to go to Ukraine for the sake of ideology - I draw the line at donating, so it is a bit hypocritical to fault our governments for making a reasonable, pragmatic decision.


Ultimately, I agree that it's up to Ukrainians to decide where they draw the line between ideology, and the real, human cost. We have no right to decide for them, although the reality is probably that your average Ukrainian, and even Zelensky doesn't get much say in it. It's probably more likely that the war will end either when western weapons dry up, or Russia goes nuclear. I just hope to god that the dust settles before either of those things happen, though I don't have very high hopes. Maybe we get the fairy-tale ending where Ukraine actually succeeds in total liberation... but the cost is already horrific, regardless. Some fairy tale...

The world is a shitty place, and ideology and reality are very different things. I think it's reasonable to say the "common man" probably doesn't want to die in a ditch for the sake of a bit of dirt, much less the lofty ideals of some asshole who doesn't even have skin in the game. I think it's also reasonable to say the common man absolutely has a strong interest in protecting his or her family, and their way of life. They're not exclusive. There's a balance to be struck between pragmatism and ideology. I don't think it's nearly as cut and died as most people in here seem to believe.

[Humble Scribe]

I see some dehumanisation of Russians in this thread; ironically one of the things that "fascists" tend to do to their opponents. The anger at aggression by Russia's government (well, let's be honest, it's a one man government) on the one hand, and war crimes committed by their soldiers on the other, is completely justified and correct, but I get a bit twitchy at some of the talk of "orcs" and "fertilizer." I'm probably going to regret trying to introduce any element of nuance into the open and shut good guy/bad guy conversation, but still, contra to some of the blood-curdling rhetoric here I think it's still worth making the 'not all Russians' point. I'm fortunate to live in what is still a relatively free and open democracy, but in the past my government has decided to wage wars I disagreed with and protested against. If I lived in a police state, I think I would have probably not bothered with the protest, and if I received draft orders I'm not 100% sure I'd have disobeyed them. In my younger days I met men who fought for Nazi Germany, and they were not monsters (one was a Hitler Youth drafted to man an anti-aircraft battery; more JoJo Rabbit than Einsatzgruppen). That's not to say that there were not plenty of monsters in that war - of course there were - or that the regime was not an evil one that we are well rid of, just that declaring a nation of 144 million people as all irredeemably evil seems to only invite a single solution to the problem, and it's not a good one.

Oh yeah, let's negotiate with a murdering rapist who is actively raping you and cutting you up with the intention of killing you. What are you negotiating? That they stop? Without killing the murdering rapist or otherwise putting them out of commission?

Modern inter-state wars end in one of two ways; with a negotiated peace, or the total overrun and occupation of one side. The overrun and occupation of Russia is not going to happen. It is militarily and logistically near impossible unless the entire West declares war en masse and switches to mass conscription and a war economy, and even then it's not something any army in history has achieved since the Mongols. But even if it were, the presence of nuclear weapons means that Russia would have used them long before things reached that point. So let's forget about the Carthaginian Peace.

That leaves a negotiated settlement. Now, you can set the terms where you like. You can say that Russia must vacate Ukraine and pay reparations and allow people to be extradited to The Hague and all sorts, and you might - eventually - be able to make the war costly enough for Russia that it finally agrees to that. The question is how much pain you and everyone else are willing to bear before they reach that point. For Ukraine, I agree that that's probably a lot of pain. Likewise for Putin, as he won't feel it personally. But how much Russia more generally and Western societies respectively are prepared to bear remain open questions to my mind. I suspect the war will drag on for some time yet. Putin will wait and see how the gas weapon works, whether Trump or some fellow traveller gets re-elected, whether mobilisation turns things around, etc etc. But all wars end eventually, even if, as in Korea, not officially.

[TheGlyphstone]

 

There's a place for pragmatism too. I think it's reasonable to assume most people have a healthy attachment to their own lives, at which point you have to ask yourself if the cause is really worth dying over. It's very easy to get carried away by ideology, when you are sitting back, safe and sound in a western country. I also think it's a bit disingenuous on behalf of NATO to support Ukraine with weapons and such, yet refuse to genuinely commit to the conflict. If the west was truly the shining example of righteousness or whatever you want to call it, we'd have thrown in with Ukraine in full. Boots on the ground, planes in the sky, nukes be damned. We didn't do that that. Why? Pragmatism. The west doesn't think Ukraine is worth WW3. We're willing to support them... up to a point.

TBH, I don't like it. I think the west's response has been pretty appalling actually. We might not be at fault, but we certainly could have done more. I'd have preferred the all in, and roll the dice. But it is what it is, and at the end of the day, I'm not personally willing to go to Ukraine for the sake of ideology - I draw the line at donating, so it is a bit hypocritical to fault our governments for making a reasonable, pragmatic decision.


Ultimately, I agree that it's up to Ukrainians to decide where they draw the line between ideology, and the real, human cost. We have no right to decide for them, although the reality is probably that your average Ukrainian, and even Zelensky doesn't get much say in it. It's probably more likely that the war will end either when western weapons dry up, or Russia goes nuclear. I just hope to god that the dust settles before either of those things happen, though I don't have very high hopes. Maybe we get the fairy-tale ending where Ukraine actually succeeds in total liberation... but the cost is already horrific, regardless. Some fairy tale...

The world is a shitty place, and ideology and reality are very different things. I think it's reasonable to say the "common man" probably doesn't want to die in a ditch for the sake of a bit of dirt, much less the lofty ideals of some asshole who doesn't even have skin in the game. I think it's also reasonable to say the common man absolutely has a strong interest in protecting his or her family, and their way of life. They're not exclusive. There's a balance to be struck between pragmatism and ideology. I don't think it's nearly as cut and died as most people in here seem to believe.

That's true, and it gets more complicated because pragmatism and ideology find their devil's alliance when 'a patch of dirt' becomes my patch of dirt. For the Ukrainian refugees formerly living in the occupied territory who fled ahead of the invasion, they could theoretically resettle somewhere else but i'd guess many of them would prefer to go home as long as it remains a possibility.

[Azuresun]

I see some dehumanisation of Russians in this thread; ironically one of the things that "fascists" tend to do to their opponents. The anger at aggression by Russia's government (well, let's be honest, it's a one man government) on the one hand, and war crimes committed by their soldiers on the other, is completely justified and correct, but I get a bit twitchy at some of the talk of "orcs" and "fertilizer." I'm probably going to regret trying to introduce any element of nuance into the open and shut good guy/bad guy conversation, but still, contra to some of the blood-curdling rhetoric here I think it's still worth making the 'not all Russians' point. I'm fortunate to live in what is still a relatively free and open democracy, but in the past my government has decided to wage wars I disagreed with and protested against. If I lived in a police state, I think I would have probably not bothered with the protest, and if I received draft orders I'm not 100% sure I'd have disobeyed them. In my younger days I met men who fought for Nazi Germany, and they were not monsters (one was a Hitler Youth drafted to man an anti-aircraft battery; more JoJo Rabbit than Einsatzgruppen). That's not to say that there were not plenty of monsters in that war - of course there were - or that the regime was not an evil one that we are well rid of, just that declaring a nation of 144 million people as all irredeemably evil seems to only invite a single solution to the problem, and it's not a good one.

The tone largely (that I've seen) draws a line between the civilian population of Russia, and the army of Russian rapists and murderers who are raping and murdering in Ukraine right now, with a side order of shelling apartment buildings, torture, and child kidnapping. People who choose to behave in a subhuman way get dehumanised. Gasp.

Frankly, the Ukrainian response has been amazingly, stunningly, ASTOUNDINGLY controlled and level-headed considering the atrocities that have been inflicted upon them for existing--offering amnesty and protection to Russian soldiers who surrender, and not striking at civilian targets in Russia. Yes, it works well for them to take the moral high ground in terms of keeping allies on side and highlighting the monstrosities the Russians are doing. But it's sure not easy to do that.

I know that post-Iraq, the trend is to Bothsides every conflict and reflexively be suspicious of whatever side the US is on. And the Botski Brigade from their troll farms are working very hard to push that "Ukraine is just as bad!" narrative in their organised social media campaigns, customising their message to different audiences. But there really ain't one here.

[Callie Del Noire]

I’ve been following the subject here quite closely. I’ve refrained from commenting mostly because my Ukrainian friends, all two them, are of the opinion that Putin needs to be shot in the head and buried in a foundation somewhere anonymously. They both think he’s a deplorable human being and an old school communist KGB agent. Happy to polonium in your tea for the benefit of the party. They both have lost family in the past to Russian aggression.

From the Holodomor and the following 7 decades of Soviet rule. As an American I can’t imagine the INTENTIONAL creation of starvation by famine that Stalin’s rule introduced to the people of Ukraine much less 7 decades of denial of it. I suspect the two years, and millions (as estimated by the UN) of lives lost to it wouldn’t have a profound effect on the Ukrainian culture. They would be quite reluctant to resubmit to such a people again.

[Thufir Hawat]

From the Holodomor and the following 7 decades of Soviet rule. As an American I can’t imagine the INTENTIONAL creation of starvation by famine that Stalin’s rule introduced to the people of Ukraine much less 7 decades of denial of it. I suspect the two years, and millions (as estimated by the UN) of lives lost to it wouldn’t have a profound effect on the Ukrainian culture. They would be quite reluctant to resubmit to such a people again.

I suspect you meant to write "would". On the rest, I agree .

Also, Humble Scribe, dehumanization of the enemy is something that almost inevitably happens during a war. "Fascist regimes" just start out like that .

[RedRose]

I am forever disappointed in humans. We go on the Moon, but we cannot stop wars. Even countries that already got decimated by wars... I dunno. It's weird. And we were told all the sacrifices for the euro (costs, changes, loss of identity in some way) were "SO THERE WOULD BE NO WAR EVER AGAIN IN EUROPE"

[midnightblack]

I am forever disappointed in humans. We go on the Moon, but we cannot stop wars. Even countries that already got decimated by wars... I dunno. It's weird. And we were told all the sacrifices for the euro (costs, changes, loss of identity in some way) were "SO THERE WOULD BE NO WAR EVER AGAIN IN EUROPE"

The last part there obviously refers to the political Europe as constituted by the EU. The current crisis does take place on the European continent, but it involves countries that are largely outside the EU's sphere of influence. Putin is not the first dictator in this part of the world, but he will end up like all the others. Politically and economically he's lost this since the last days of February, but it does take more time for these things to become apparent. He's still fighting over dirt for some reason and it's difficult to say how much longer it will take or where it will end.