War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Humble Scribe]

Mobilization will do nothing but stretch his already completely clapped out and only existent-on-paper logistical corps even further. The conscripts right now don't have training, don't have gear and they are either deploying with Mosin rifles or AKM-shaped chunks of rust that you'd need a tetanus shot to even consider looking at.

Nor would it be the first time Russia had committed lots of badly equipped troops to a fight. But a man with a rifle, even a bolt action one, can still kill you if he gets a clear shot, and Russia has more than three times Ukraine's population, and plenty of artillery left. It's clear that Russia's ability to make offensive headway is basically zero now, but getting defenders out of entrenchments or built up areas can still be a messy and bloody task, especially if, as Ukraine most likely does, you want to avoid civilian casualties, and your stocks of wonder weapons are running low. I'm not saying Ukraine can't make more gains, just trying to argue for a degree of perspective is all. So long as the political will to fight is there, an authoritiarian regime can keep going a lot longer than you might think, especially if it thinks its enemy's backers don't have the stomach to make sacrifices and winter is coming. Putin may be beaten. I hope he is. But don't count on it.

[Oniya]

Let's keep the conversation civil.  Remember that none of us are military strategists with the full picture of what's going on (and if we were, there would probably be some regulations restricting commentary.)

[Dashenka]

Oh hey, it's the familiar old whataboutisms and BUT AMERICA's. Never far away when someone's being a hype man for Russia.

Clearly you didn't read the entire post I made after that. The point was that it never stopped anybody from doing things. WHy would it stop Putin now?

[Dice]

What makes you think he hasn't?

Are there any signs of Putin not being able to hold control over Donbass? He's held Crimea for 7 years so far.

I get the feeling there has been a "Live and let live" view of the 2014 events in Ukraine up until now. They got ready for a hot war (Look at how much better they are doing this time, after purging a ton of their RU friendly military personal for example) but they did not seek to start one. Putin's big mistake was not just keeping the win he had in the bag and leaving well enough alone. Assuming you do not also agree that his attack in 2014 was also a massive own goal too. Which I feel it was since it pushed Russia out of the ship building industry again.

[Thufir Hawat]

Try reading what I wrote again without creating a straw man. I'm not talking about winter meaning Russia militarily wins the war in Ukraine. I'm talking about it putting such a strain on Europe's ability to keep the lights on that the EU pushes Ukraine into talks. I believe that's Putin's current endgame - if not this winter, then next. Mobilisation gives him the human resources to keep the war going until Europe gets fed up of subsidising it.

Sure, but if it goes to next winter...by next winter Europe would by buying the energy from elsewhere. (From Venezuela or Iran, if necessary). So this winter is his best shot.
And yes, that's quite probably what he's counting on. I suspect I wouldn't tell you a terrible secret if I say that Russians, possibly Putin included, often believe in the idea that "the West is soft".

[Azuresun]

I don't really want to get into a legalistic hairsplitting discussion about this or come across as some kind of apologise for Putin; it's abundantly clear that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine to terrorise the population into submission, and that occupation has been brutal, but war crimes are not (necessarily) genocide. The trouble with "in whole or in part" as a definition is that you could argue that killing even one single person, if it is just because of their ethnic or national identity, is technically genocide. By that definition, *any* war is a genocide, as you're targeting people because of their national identity. If everything is genocide, then nothing is, and we have nothing to fall back on when there is a Holocaust, an Armenia or a Rwanda. Are 500 deaths a genocide, or just a terrible war crime? I don't know. I just feel that leaping to use the term every time someone does something we disapprove of robs it of meaning.

Genocide does not have to be massively successful to be genocide. Again: navigate away from these forums to Google, then read the Russian documents and statements about erasing Ukranian national identity. These atrocities are encouraged, ordered or permitted with the goal of destroying the Ukranian people. Any notion that we have to cross some arbitrary line of death toll for it to count is unfounded.

On a slight tangent, I often feel reminded of the 1930's when some people talk about this war. 20-odd years out from another war, one that was advertised as a noble defence of freedom, but which turned into a murky, aimless grind with nothing to show for it except a steady stream of injured or dead soldiers. And when another big conflict comes up, everyone's a bit cynical, a bit jaded. Very ready to question the motives of their own leaders after being lied to once. Pushing for peace with a leader who shows no signs of being interested in it except as a chance to re-arm and find the next target. Reluctant to believe that what this new guy is doing could really be that bad.

[MetroFallout]

In other, breaking news: a commissar got fragged in a mobilization center in Russia. The shooter is a Ruslan Zinan (?).

[Humble Scribe]

Sure, but if it goes to next winter...by next winter Europe would by buying the energy from elsewhere. (From Venezuela or Iran, if necessary).

Venezuela doesn't have the capability to pump more oil than it is currently doing. Its petrochemical industry is in a shambles thanks to years of mismanagement, corruption and lack of investment. And since Venezuela kicked out US and European companies in the 1990s, fully half of the oil sands projects (like Canada, most of Venezuela's oil is as bitumen deposits) are dependent on Russian involvement at present.
Iran has the gas but not, currently, the capability to produce and export much more than it consumes. Even if sanctions were lifted tomorrow, an Australia or Qatar-style LNG export boom would be 5-10 years out. But Iran could probably increase oil exports fairly quickly. It's currently exporting about 700,000 bbl/d and could probably double that if sanctions were eased.

Fortunately, the implosion of the Chinese economy means that the tight oil supply situation is already easing globally. Gas is still very tricky for Europe though. Europe doesn't have the LNG import capacity to make up for losing all of Russia's gas - it can probably only cover about half of it. Storage levels are currently high, but a cold winter and a few weeks of low wind power generation could mean power rationing and/or rolling blackouts.

[stormwyrm]

There's this rather bleak assessment of Europe's coming energy crunch caused by the war:

https://fortune.com/2022/09/24/europe-energy-crisis-winter-natural-gas-putin/

[Dashenka]

The war isn't the reason. The sanctions are. But even so...



...an energy crisis was always going to happen sooner or later.

[gaggedLouise]

The US embassy at Moscow has urged all Americans (including persons with dual US/Russian citizenship living in Russia) to try to leave Russia asap "while limited commercial travel options remain".

This doesn't feel good at all, especially not after the so-called referendums and the (probable) Nordstream sabotages.

https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-for-u-s-citizens-in-russia/

[Dashenka]

I read that the EU considers the sabotage of the Nordstream pipe an act of war. So all they need is solid evidence that it was Russia.


No idea what happens then.

I try not to pay too much attention to it anymore. It makes me really scared and anxious.

[Beorning]

At least you're not that close to the potential front line...

I'm not sure if this will lead to open NATO-Russia war. But it could lead to the EU toughening their stance. Maybe Germany will start sending more weaponry to Ukraine finally...

On the other hand, there's a new right-wing ruling coalition in Italy that includes Putin sympathizers like Salvini and Berlusconi. And who knows what Giorgia Melloni's real opinions on the war are...

[Dashenka]

At least you're not that close to the potential front line...

My family and a couple of friends are.

[Beorning]

I know, that's terrible :(

[Dashenka]

Putin threatened to block gas through Ukraine... then Nordstream explodes. Probably all as a pressure tool.

I know the big rich countries can afford the more expensive gas deals and as much as they fear a cold winter, I think they should be fine. Countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, etc, who simply can't afford the more expensive gas are going to have a seriously hard time if the gas supply stops or gets disrupted.

And when that happens, how long will their governments last in supporting the sanctions before just caving in saying 'look guys, this isn't our war but our people are suffering.'


A lot of people say Putin's threats are meaningless but I don't think they are.



Winter's coming and if there's ever been one loyal allie to Russia, it's been winter.

[MetroFallout]

I will reiterate. Winter has never been an ally to anyone who hasn't been prepared (i.e got their supply and logistics sorted out either bybthemselves or by the actions of allies). The myth of “General Winter” is a load of propaganda bollocks.

Eastern Europe can probably get by with the EU's help. All of Europe needs to grit their teeth and endure. Tinpot dictators with nukes cannot be appeased or nuclear proliferation will be the result. This is bigger than them.

[MetroFallout]

Side note, since I can't edit my previous post. Can I just say I hate typing long posts on my phone? Fucking typos that hide just piss me off.

[TheGlyphstone]

Tpyo demons always apear when you least expect the

[MetroFallout]

Tpyo demons always apear when you least expect the

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Humble Scribe]

I will reiterate. Winter has never been an ally to anyone who hasn't been prepared (i.e got their supply and logistics sorted out either bybthemselves or by the actions of allies). The myth of “General Winter” is a load of propaganda bollocks.

OK, for the third time, because for some reason it doesn't seem to be sinking in, when we talk about Putin relying on winter, we're not talking about the military situation. We're not talking about Panzer IIIs freezing up outside Moscow in 1941, we're talking about the energy situation and the pressures it puts on European governments, and by extension Ukraine, to cut a deal. Reiterate away, but it's not relevant to the discussion here.

Eastern Europe can probably get by with the EU's help. All of Europe needs to grit their teeth and endure. Tinpot dictators with nukes cannot be appeased or nuclear proliferation will be the result. This is bigger than them.

Hungary can get by without the EU's help, because Orban has already cut a deal with Putin. Bulgaria is likely to follow suit, for the same reasons. Tinpot or not, they are already appeasing Putin; the gas weapon works.
(Romania may get by as they produce about 60% of their own gas.)

It is simple mathematics.
EU gas demand in 2021 was 412 billion cubic metres.
EU gas production in 2021 was 70 billion cubic metres.
Therefore, EU gas import dependency is 83%. Now some of that comes from Norway, some from Algeria, some as LNG, but of that 83%, more than half came from Russia. This means Europe faces winter with the loss of 40-45% of its natural gas supply.
EU LNG import capacity is 157 billion cubic metres, or about 38% of supply. But it's important to remember that in 2021 it was already using more than half of that. So spare LNG capacity, even if it runs at 100% (and nothing in the process industry ever runs at 100%) would represent about 19% of supply, or less than half of what is being lost in terms of supply from Russia. To put it simply, there just aren't enough pipes to get gas into the EU, so even if everything runs completely smoothly, there will already be a shortfall of about 25% of supply at a time of peak demand. And that's before we get to the possibility that "someone" might try to hit a gas pipeline from Norway in the same way they have Nordstream 1.
You don't just "grit your teeth" through that. You turn off industry pretty much completely, leading to economic pain, you ration power, and you pray that the wind keeps blowing. And it still may not be enough. I'm not saying it wouldn't be worth it, if it leads to Putin's bluff being called. But be under no illusion that Europe is in for some serious pain, which I don't see national governments preparing their populations for at the moment.

[Dashenka]

I didn't know that about Romania but good for them.

The simple fact is that Russia with their gas supply has Europe by the balls. And Europe can hold up a pokerface saying nothing is wrong but something's gotta give and with winter approaching the warmest country (aside from Norway) might be Russia.

The vast majority of people cannot afford 500 pounds a year more on their heating bill and 500 pounds is on the low end. There's also a lot of people who have to pay closer to a thousand pounds. The less wealthy countries in Europe are feeling that first and when the people start rioting against the government, the government will strike a deal with Russia.

It's that simple.

So winter is Russia's ally. Because Europe needs gas to stay warm and Russia has so much gas, they're basically torching it.


Other options to stay warm are not available. There isn't enough electricity and if you burn wood in a wood burner, Greta Thunberg will forever hate your guts. Which is apparently something Europe is afraid of.

So countries might come to the choice. Freeze our civilians to death, or strike a deal. We all know what the outcome of that will be.

And with the only pipeline to western europe now conveniently running through Ukraine and Gazprom threatening the Ukrainians, Putin has played the gas card and it's a mighty fine hand that Europe will need to counter or bluff their way through.

[TheGlyphstone]

Other options to stay warm are not available. There isn't enough electricity and if you burn wood in a wood burner, Greta Thunberg will forever hate your guts. Which is apparently something Europe is afraid of..

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https://satwcomic.com/2022-coming-up

[Oniya]

Can we *not* resort to digs at 19-year olds?

[TheGlyphstone]

I wasn't trying to dig, just pointing out that said 19-year old's influence on international politics is likely much smaller than believed. Any excuse to share SATW is worth taking.