War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Thufir Hawat]

Also, I'd advise against talking about a regime change in Russia. Russia can still deploy more destructive capabilities, it makes no sense to underplay what it can still do, experts say (that's a Washington Post link).
I mean, would I like to see a regime change in Russia? Probably, unless it goes south, as it's likely to do. But we're not there yet.

[Oniya]

I think what's more important is that more Russian politicians are starting to make statements that outright disagree with Putin's actions.  Not simply that they do disagree, but that they've reached a point where they're vocalizing these disagreements.

[Dashenka]

Yeah I agree.


The statement from some Piter and Moscow mayors seems to be the weightiest contra sound to Putin so far. I'm sure there's many people who feel the same so this could be the start of a revolution. Not saying it is or will, but everything starts somewhere.

Ironically, or maybe not, the 1917 revolution started in October (hence the name october revolution) in Piter and started a civil war. Putin wants his history, let's hope he'll get it.

[gaggedLouise]

Yeah I agree.


The statement from some Piter and Moscow mayors seems to be the weightiest contra sound to Putin so far. I'm sure there's many people who feel the same so this could be the start of a revolution. Not saying it is or will, but everything starts somewhere.

Ironically, or maybe not, the 1917 revolution started in October (hence the name october revolution) in Piter and started a civil war. Putin wants his history, let's hope he'll get it.

Actually the 1917 revolution in itself took off in February/March (the difference between old and new style dates) and the Tsar had abdicated by March 2/March 15 (he nominated his brother, who knew he wouldn't find much support and declined the offer, so the dynasty ended the next day). That part of the revolution was mostly a spontaneous uprising in Petrograd, and the Bolsheviks had very little to do with it. Lenin, stuck in Switzerland, was as surprised as everybody else when he heard that there was a revolution going on in Russia - at that time he had very scant real contact with his party inside the country, but he understood he would have to get back into Russia as soon as possible after the Tsar was out of action a few days later. :)

Ironically there had been a planned plot in the winter of 1916/17 to engineer a palace revolution and remove Nicholas II; the date was meant to be around March or April, but the real revolution arrived instead. One of the kingmakers behind the secret plot was Alexander Guchkov, the chairman of parliament, who also became one of the men sent to talk to Nicholas, and who made him sign the abdication.

[Dashenka]

So I read something today, I cannot verify it so I don't know what or if it is true at all.


According to the Russians they've destroyed 44 HIMARS already while Ukraine apparently only has 16.


They say that Ukraine 'built' some HIMARS out of cardboard, which tricket the Russians apparently.



Again, no idea what is true about this, I just feel it's something that could be true, and if it is, it is simply hilarious.

[TheGlyphstone]

Whether its true or not, it doesn't make the Russians look nearly as good as they seem to think it does.

[Lustful Bride]

Some good points by Beau on Putin's recent choice to hide in his manor, and why we should not be chomping at the bit to see him fall. :/

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erA9c0mQ_Ik

And also a look at the sinking of the Moskva by a former analyst who now makes funny videos, as a talking pig. (Keeping it as a link as I think some images break the 'no minors' site rules) I do appreciate LP ending the video by reminding us to have some sympathy for some of the Russian youth sent to die for a greedy old man who wanted to secure his legacy on a mountain of bodies.

[MetroFallout]

LazerPig and Perun are among the best ways to keep abreast of the situation, no question about it.

[Vekseid]

Anders Puck Nielson also does a lot of good videos on Ukraine, in particular with this situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT7Hx1d-jac

As I've mentioned earlier in the thread, it is not likely to be saner voices replacing Putin. It is the sort of people who make statements about indiscriminate use of nuclear weapons.

So I read something today, I cannot verify it so I don't know what or if it is true at all.


According to the Russians they've destroyed 44 HIMARS already while Ukraine apparently only has 16.


They say that Ukraine 'built' some HIMARS out of cardboard, which tricket the Russians apparently.



Again, no idea what is true about this, I just feel it's something that could be true, and if it is, it is simply hilarious.

Two of their evidence videos are hitting the second story of a building. Which to me looks more like a Texas Sharpshooter fallacy. "Yeah uhh, there was a HIMARS in there!" And they did it again because it was so believable the first time.

More generously, a lot of evidence is of M1083 remains, which can be mistaken for a HIMARS if you aren't careful. The similarities may be intentional.

In more hopeful news, Ukraine's economy seems to be stabilizing and appears to be stronger than predicted.

[Azuresun]

I do appreciate LP ending the video by reminding us to have some sympathy for some of the Russian youth sent to die for a greedy old man who wanted to secure his legacy on a mountain of bodies.

Thing is...it's that same Russian youth who are leaving a trail of murders and rapes across Ukraine, along with sidelines in looting and child kidnapping. I'm sure some of them are blameless victims...and I'm equally sure that's what every one of the monsters will claim to be after the invasion fails. The Moskva crew were the ones helping to lob tons of high explosives indiscriminately into a city, let's not forget.

As I've mentioned earlier in the thread, it is not likely to be saner voices replacing Putin. It is the sort of people who make statements about indiscriminate use of nuclear weapons.

I still think Putin is more dangerous overall, in terms of the threat he poses to democracies across the world with disinformation campaigns and the pushing of far-right puppets. We VERY narrowly avoided the timeline where he had his buddy Trump pull the US out of NATO and sit back as Ukraine was overrun.

[Dashenka]

Thing is...it's that same Russian youth who are leaving a trail of murders and rapes across Ukraine, along with sidelines in looting and child kidnapping. I'm sure some of them are blameless victims...and I'm equally sure that's what every one of the monsters will claim to be after the invasion fails. The Moskva crew were the ones helping to lob tons of high explosives indiscriminately into a city, let's not forget.

But if you're 19 and you're in the military and your superior tells you to do something, you do it. It works like that in every military especially in former Soviet militaries. There's a poem about this, you probably know it. The Charge of the Lightbrigade (which happened in Ukraine as well but that's coincidence). I'll quote a few lines:

Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.




I wouldn't go as far as calling them blameless victims, because they are definitely on the wrong side but the situation isn't as black and white as you put it I think.

[TheGlyphstone]

That works for regular military stuff and combat scenarios - even the shelling/bombarding of cities, to an extent. But 'I was just following orders' was established at Nuremburg to not be an acceptable excuse for literal war crimes. If your superiors are telling you to rape and torture civilians, that becomes pretty darn black and white and while it's pretty unlikely the perpetrators will ever be identified, let alone punished, doing those things under orders will never be an excuse in my eyes.

[GloomCookie]

I wish I could say you were wrong with any confidence or reasoning.

I have none, and now I'm gloomy.

Don't be gloomy, that's my job.

LazerPig and Perun are among the best ways to keep abreast of the situation, no question about it.

Hahaha LazerPig is an awesome pig, love his quirky ass content.

Ok time to contribute my own to this conversation. Please keep in mind I am writing this while waiting on the pain meds to kick in so I'm equal parts tired and achy and soon to become even more tired and high as a kite. Wee.

Revolution will come to Russia, but it will not come easy. The people of Russia are working off of state-run media for decades telling them they are the best, that Russian exceptionalism will win the day, and that there's nothing to fear with a big, powerful man like Putin in charge. There are people still alive who remember that bullshit already, and remember the famines and shortages leading up to and following the collapse in 1991. They can see the writing on the wall and it's only a matter of time before Putin falls, and the only question is how many people get to die in the process. If the Russian people are lucky, the next leader who steps in will have a brain and the titanium testicles necessary to steer Russia towards a more democratic way of life, but I am probably not alone in realizing a velvet revolution will not happen. No, there will be blood.

The French Revolution was kicked off in earnest by peasant women demanding bread. Right now, there are poor Russians forced to fight in military engagements that, despite Russia's numerous propaganda outlets, is showing Russians how misplaced their certainty in Putin truly is. Politicians are starting to openly criticize him, and like all dictators with a fragile ego, he's having people eliminated in an attempt to stem the tide. But even that is starting to fail as people realize you can't stop the idea that Putin is done. He's old, he's growing weak, and the Russian exceptionalism is starting to fray around the edges even in the heart of Moscow. You have groups like NAFO (I think that's it) who are openly mocking and trolling Russians online, presenting undeniable evidence that they're being lied to, and even the most dyed in the wool Putin sympathizer eventually has to look at the evidence and go "Are we the baddies?"

[Annaamarth]

But if you're 19 and you're in the military and your superior tells you to do something, you do it. It works like that in every military especially in former Soviet militaries. There's a poem about this, you probably know it. The Charge of the Lightbrigade (which happened in Ukraine as well but that's coincidence). I'll quote a few lines:

Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.

I wouldn't go as far as calling them blameless victims, because they are definitely on the wrong side but the situation isn't as black and white as you put it I think.

Tennyson wrote that in the 1854.  Over the following century and a half, this actually changed for many nations - particularly in the West.  When I was in, my training was such that if I did not understand an order or why it has been issued, it was often - not always, but often - correct to question it.  I was also taught that, under the right circumstances, it was correct to say "Sir, that's stupid as hell.  I am not doing it and I will not permit you to do it.  I will stand my post and continue my duty until such time as I am normally relieved, or you have found me relief."

I ... may have used more colourful language than that.

Now, if I was wrong I'd have been relieved, tossed into the brig and brought up on non-judicial punishment, whereupon I might have requested a military trial - because the order issued was detrimental to the readiness and safety of the unit, and therefore detrimental to the safety and readiness of the mission.  I was not relieved, and it turned into a conversation with the officer I was speaking to about why that had been my response.

I made reply, because I was taught that I could not do my job without reasoning why, because the consequences of do and die are very particular.

Now, let me be clear - I was not important.  I was not an officer, I was not senior enlisted, I did not have any special medals, I was not a hero.  I was a schlub guy - and I was still expected to understand the overall mission, my unit's purpose in that mission, and my part of that unit's purpose.  Not everyone engaged with that the same way I did, because that's kind of a lot to expect out of college-aged kids, but I think most did, particularly within my circle.

Now, you're absolutely right about this still being true in former-Soviet nations, but I don't view it as a defense - which is pretty common since Nuremburg.

That works for regular military stuff and combat scenarios - even the shelling/bombarding of cities, to an extent. But 'I was just following orders' was established at Nuremburg to not be an acceptable excuse for literal war crimes. If your superiors are telling you to rape and torture civilians, that becomes pretty darn black and white and while it's pretty unlikely the perpetrators will ever be identified, let alone punished, doing those things under orders will never be an excuse in my eyes.

Speaking of.

I don't actually assume the warcrimes were ordered - better said, I think they were permitted, and commented on this in May:

Other stuff, largely focused on the Russian usage of ethnic non-Russians from economically depressed areas as conscripts...
- The atrocities committed on the group by uneducated conscripts who are, in turns, oppressed, abused, and poorly disciplined could be written off by the (ethnically Russian) high command as the acting out of 'barbarians' - the thought process that these 'inferior peoples' are a case example for the superiority of the Russian World seems an easy leap for ethnostatists to make, along with 'well, that's what Ukraine gets for fighting back.'  Classic abuser 'It's not my fault, I didn't do it, but they deserved it if it did happen.'

- The idea of a culture that glorifies national strength through the military, while simultaneously abusing and disrespecting the military as made up of 'losers' and leaving wounded veterans out to dry - again, anecdotal, but a case example in this tweet - seems like a really irrational dichotomy.  This has shown up in the West - consider Trump calling senator McCain a loser for having been captured and surviving a POW camp and simultaneously looking for military parades for his own glory - and seems like a special flavour of crazy to me.

[Dashenka]

This is both funny and sad.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAcZHVa2Yvk&ab_channel=AFPNewsAgency

[stormwyrm]

Now there's talk of Ukrainian forces striking back, into Russia:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/18/ukraine-war-cross-border-russia-putin-belgorod

[GloomCookie]

I'm hoping that Ukraine is smarter than that. The second they go on the offensive and start pushing into Russia, they'll get a lot less support from the international community. It's one thing to be the heroic defenders fighting against Russia, it's another to be sending troops into a foreign country. That's why a lot of the support they've been getting has been limited to defensive weaponry only.

[TheGlyphstone]

Zelensky is way too smart to hand Putin a causes belli like that on a golden platter. Ukraine gains nothing from going on the offensive and risks everything. I'd judge it more likely for Russia to be spreading those rumors among its own people deliberately to try and bolster support.

[Sara Nilsson]

or misinformation from Ukraine hoping the russians will move troops to protect the border that wont be attacked.

[Thufir Hawat]

Thing is, for Russia Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk are or soon shall be parts of its territory. Ukraine would look at them as territory to be recovered.

[Dashenka]

It feels like misinformation or Russian incompetence.

Belgorod is just across the border so there's likely to be some war equipment stationed there. If that war equipment is in the same condition as everything else, there's also the very real possibility it just blew up. Or it got blown up by dissidents.

I agree with some of the above that it would simply make no sense for Zelensky to order troops to attack on Russian soil when 1/5th of Ukraine is yet to be freed.

[GloomCookie]

From a logistics point of view, I can see why Zelensky would. Think about it like this. Russia needs staging depots in their territory to funnel troops and material into Ukraine, and they're not going to do it in Ukraine unless they need to because of the risk of attack, so they place it behind their lines. Zelensky orders a few troops over there to basically raid the place and just cause as much chaos as possible with no real intention of taking or holding territory. Doing so does two things: 1, it forces Russian troops to pull back to defend their supply lines and 2, stretches already existing supply lines thinner than ever.

Now, the obvious tactical problems are you need to get enough troops over the Russian border to do so, which I don't think is possible because as Dashenka pointed out, there's still 20% of the country to liberate first, and that's priority number one. So, either Russia is blowing up its own supplies (which I highly doubt) or they're just stupid and incompetent. I'm leaning more towards stupidity and incompetence because we saw this same behavior with the Moskova incident, when Russia claimed everything was fine but the ship was actually lost. It's really, really bad for Russia to stage such false flag operations because it makes them look even weaker, which is something that goes against the grain given what we've seen from Russian foreign policy and propaganda to this point. I mean, Putin had pictures taken of him riding a horse for a reason: it was to appear as a strong, capable leader. Putin's entire MO is about appearing strong and in control, and this entire situation is blowing up (figuratively and literally) around him.

What probably happened was a supply depot was storing dangerous materials like fuel in a haphazard way and someone lit a cigarette or got too close with an angle grinder and didn't rub their two braincells together enough to figure out that the big red flame symbol meant flammable, the fuel ignited, it caused secondary explosions, and everything went to hell.

[Vekseid]

I could see them setting up to harass the road south.

Not before they've disrupted all Russian logistics internally to Ukraine, however. At which point, Russia would already be clearly losing.

[Annaamarth]

From a logistics point of view, I can see why Zelensky would. Think about it like this. Russia needs staging depots in their territory to funnel troops and material into Ukraine, and they're not going to do it in Ukraine unless they need to because of the risk of attack, so they place it behind their lines. Zelensky orders a few troops over there to basically raid the place and just cause as much chaos as possible with no real intention of taking or holding territory. Doing so does two things: 1, it forces Russian troops to pull back to defend their supply lines and 2, stretches already existing supply lines thinner than ever.

Now, the obvious tactical problems are you need to get enough troops over the Russian border to do so, which I don't think is possible because as Dashenka pointed out, there's still 20% of the country to liberate first, and that's priority number one. So, either Russia is blowing up its own supplies (which I highly doubt) or they're just stupid and incompetent. I'm leaning more towards stupidity and incompetence because we saw this same behavior with the Moskova incident, when Russia claimed everything was fine but the ship was actually lost. It's really, really bad for Russia to stage such false flag operations because it makes them look even weaker, which is something that goes against the grain given what we've seen from Russian foreign policy and propaganda to this point. I mean, Putin had pictures taken of him riding a horse for a reason: it was to appear as a strong, capable leader. Putin's entire MO is about appearing strong and in control, and this entire situation is blowing up (figuratively and literally) around him.

What probably happened was a supply depot was storing dangerous materials like fuel in a haphazard way and someone lit a cigarette or got too close with an angle grinder and didn't rub their two braincells together enough to figure out that the big red flame symbol meant flammable, the fuel ignited, it caused secondary explosions, and everything went to hell.

Ukraine has struck into Russian territory a number of times.  The first time, as I recall, they used Russian-model helos to strike a depot, after Russia had claimed Ukraine had no airforce left - thus putting Russia in the bind of either saying it was a self-inflicted strike or Ukraine did, in fact, have an airforce.

Another example of good trolling PsyOps.

[MetroFallout]

Ukraine has struck into Russian territory a number of times.  The first time, as I recall, they used Russian-model helos to strike a depot, after Russia had claimed Ukraine had no airforce left - thus putting Russia in the bind of either saying it was a self-inflicted strike or Ukraine did, in fact, have an airforce.

Another example of good trolling PsyOps.

They used their old Soviet stock Mi-24 Hinds to conduct the strike on Belgorod about a month or two ago. The ambiguously existent Russian Air Defense basically waved them through because of either arrogance, incompetence or an unholy combination of the two. Didn't help that the Russians also flew Hinds I suspect.