War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[gaggedLouise]

Several loud explosions heard and lights seen in the sky around Belarus about five or six hours ago, some of them  near towns with military garrisons or air force bases/airfields - but apparently not in the capital Minsk. It's still quite unclear what this is about - some people guessed an attempted military coup against Lukashenko but I'm sceptical of that.

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429?s=20&t=3YIUTmMhatYSVGfrmUz8hQ (with brief video clips of the night sky posted as replies)

[Lustful Bride]

Several loud explosions heard and lights seen in the sky around Belarus about five or six hours ago, some of them  near towns with military garrisons or air force bases/airfields - but apparently not in the capital Minsk. It's still quite unclear what this is about - some people guessed an attempted military coup against Lukashenko but I'm sceptical of that.

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429?s=20&t=3YIUTmMhatYSVGfrmUz8hQ (with brief video clips of the night sky posted as replies)

Could be a false flag attack by Putin and Lukashenko to justify harder attacks against Ukraine.

[HannibalBarca]

I don't expect the Russians to have the capability of organizing a wide-spread false flag operation in Belrus that matches the events unfolding there.  I'd suspect another reason we don't yet know of.

[Azuresun]

The latest bit of propaganda from the Moscow troll farms concerns the "Azov Battallion", a Ukranian unit of neo-Nazis that (in Kremlin fantasyland) was the one who really murdered all those civilians. They possess the mutant power of teleportation, and will no doubt appear every time civilians die when (totally coincidentally) Russian shelling is going on nearby.

This is bad comedy.

[Beorning]

I think they are also starting to claim that the footage from destroyed Ukrainian cities etc. is staged... 

Meanwhile, Russian atrocities continue. Yesterday, they bombed a theatre where a bomb shelter with hundreds of civilians were hiding...

[Lustful Bride]

The Russian propaganda machine never sleeps. The bioweapons conspiracy now has a crazy ex cop (who fled the US to avoid being arrested), who is there to prove to the American people that Russia is the real victim here.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/american-ex-cop-goes-to-ukraine-on-twisted-mission-to-vindicate-putin/ar-AAVcNJe?ocid=msedgntp

This is what happens when you smoke so much Copium you become a traitor to your own homeland.

[Beorning]

Something I'd like to discuss - is there any talk in Western Europe regarding the behaviour of various politicians and businesses before and even during this war?

For example, back here, there's a movement to boycott some French companies that don't want to stop doing business in Russia. There's a lot of anger toward Leroy Merlin, who not only want to stay in Russia, but actually declared they treat the current situation as an opportunity to expand (due to some of their competition leaving Russia). Also, it was revealed that when the invasion started, Leroy Merlin actually blocked the employees of their Ukrainian branch from the company intranet - which hindered the attempts at evacuating them. Corporate cyber-security turned out to be more important than saving the employees' lives...

I'm wondering: did any of this make it back to France?

Also, are there any comments on how the French government sold weapons to Russia, even after the 2014 Crimea annexation? Or how Germany seems really... uncommitted to its promise to supply Ukraine with weapons?

Finally, any comments on all of those people that, across the years, claimed that Putin's Russia needs sympathy and understanding? All those "useful idiots" (to use the actual Soviet term for them) like UK's Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour politicians? Or actual sell-outs, like Germany's ex-Chancellor Schroeder?

[Lustful Bride]

A Russian tabloid (possibly) leaked information that is genuinely stunning. If its true the Russians are nearing 10 thousand Russians dead, and 16 thousand wounded.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-tabloid-says-defense-ministry-data-show-9-861-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-war-before-deleting-figures/ar-AAVkJyz?ocid=msedgntp


It almost sounds too fantastical to believe. But still....

[Mechelle]

Something I'd like to discuss - is there any talk in Western Europe regarding the behaviour of various politicians and businesses before and even during this war?

....



Finally, any comments on all of those people that, across the years, claimed that Putin's Russia needs sympathy and understanding? All those "useful idiots" (to use the actual Soviet term for them) like UK's Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour politicians? Or actual sell-outs, like Germany's ex-Chancellor Schroeder?

In Britain, Nigel Farage was named in the House of Commons (where Parliamentary privilege means that you cannot be sued) by Labour MP Chris Bryant has having received £500,000 from the Russian state for appearances on the RT TV channel.  Farage has previously said that Putin is the politician he most admires, and recently complained about Russian oligarchs having their assets frozen.

While the traditional "useful idiots" like Corbyn are on the left, it's striking just how much figures on the right like Putin.


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-should-sanctioned-labour-26476283

[Humble Scribe]

A Russian tabloid (possibly) leaked information that is genuinely stunning. If its true the Russians are nearing 10 thousand Russians dead, and 16 thousand wounded.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-tabloid-says-defense-ministry-data-show-9-861-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-war-before-deleting-figures/ar-AAVkJyz?ocid=msedgntp

It almost sounds too fantastical to believe. But still....

It may be a hack - Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian infowars. But it's not out of the ballpark. The Pentagon is estimating 7,000 dead - about half of what Russia lost in Afghanistan. If the figures are accurate then that's probably about 50% casualties among front line Russian combat units, bearing in mind about half of the 150-190,000 troops are going to be support units, artillery etc. No wonder they're scraping up mercenaries, Syrians, Chechens and whoever else they can persuade to die for them.

[RedRose]

Something I'd like to discuss - is there any talk in Western Europe regarding the behaviour of various politicians and businesses before and even during this war?

For example, back here, there's a movement to boycott some French companies that don't want to stop doing business in Russia. There's a lot of anger toward Leroy Merlin, who not only want to stay in Russia, but actually declared they treat the current situation as an opportunity to expand (due to some of their competition leaving Russia). Also, it was revealed that when the invasion started, Leroy Merlin actually blocked the employees of their Ukrainian branch from the company intranet - which hindered the attempts at evacuating them. Corporate cyber-security turned out to be more important than saving the employees' lives...

I'm wondering: did any of this make it back to France?

Also, are there any comments on how the French government sold weapons to Russia, even after the 2014 Crimea annexation? Or how Germany seems really... uncommitted to its promise to supply Ukraine with weapons?

Finally, any comments on all of those people that, across the years, claimed that Putin's Russia needs sympathy and understanding? All those "useful idiots" (to use the actual Soviet term for them) like UK's Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour politicians? Or actual sell-outs, like Germany's ex-Chancellor Schroeder?

Thanks for asking. None of this made its way to me. Leroy Merlin WTF!!! Having just moved we're constantly there and no, we don't hear. Wow, talk about tone deaf (being nice not using another word). But again what to expect from a country where almost every time I take a uber I dread the homophobic or islamophobic comments (not at me, random convo) and where the president says he "never saw his ministers harass women"... Where a mayor was caught calling his Asian employee "grain de riz"...

[Azuresun]

A breakdown of two news stories fabricated by Russian troll farms, by redubbing video of a climate protest in Germany, and a behind-the-scenes feature on a sci-fi movie. Just in case anyone sees them on Twitter and needs a handy debunk.

The video.

[Bezukhov]

Something I'd like to discuss - is there any talk in Western Europe regarding the behaviour of various politicians and businesses before and even during this war?

For example, back here, there's a movement to boycott some French companies that don't want to stop doing business in Russia. There's a lot of anger toward Leroy Merlin, who not only want to stay in Russia, but actually declared they treat the current situation as an opportunity to expand (due to some of their competition leaving Russia). Also, it was revealed that when the invasion started, Leroy Merlin actually blocked the employees of their Ukrainian branch from the company intranet - which hindered the attempts at evacuating them. Corporate cyber-security turned out to be more important than saving the employees' lives...

I'm wondering: did any of this make it back to France?

Here in Italy, it seems to me people (read: CEOs of corporations with relevant business interests in Russia) are more concerned about the economic consequences of sanctions and counter-sanctions. I'm not entirely sure, but I think ENI and Enel, both operating in the energy sector, decided to withdraw from Russia. To be sure, ENI had stop working with Rosneft after the rounds of sanctions in 2014. But some high-ranking individual at Enel declared they are "unwillingly" going to withdraw.

Also, are there any comments on how the French government sold weapons to Russia, even after the 2014 Crimea annexation? Or how Germany seems really... uncommitted to its promise to supply Ukraine with weapons?

Finally, any comments on all of those people that, across the years, claimed that Putin's Russia needs sympathy and understanding? All those "useful idiots" (to use the actual Soviet term for them) like UK's Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour politicians? Or actual sell-outs, like Germany's ex-Chancellor Schroeder?

Well, the way Przemysl's mayor Wojciech Bakun humiliated Matteo Salvini was certainly a big thing here. Salvini has a long history of praising Putin – and it's now backfiring real hard.

He's trying to come clean with things such as "this war changed everything", but it's kind of tough after all these years claiming Putin was, in Salvini's own words, "the best statesman in the world".

[Hades]

In a sign that the Russian invasion continues to be going disastrously for Moscow, several outlets are reporting a company commander was killed by the men under his command....by being ran over by a tank.  The company apparently had suffered a 50% casualty rate and decided to respond by pulling a reverse decimation.

[gaggedLouise]

Brilliant song and as true and relevant (and funky!) now as thrity years ago. What a great band - this was one of the first songs I heard from them on the radio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_7ghTAY_L0

[midnightblack]

Amusing, if in an eerie sort of way, and depressingly prophetic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OutvYSl_TLc

[Lustful Bride]

Ukranian attack helicopters may have pulled off an attack on a Russian Oil Depot 20 miles inside of Russia, detonating tons of oil before pulling back before responders could bring them down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-governor-says-ukraine-attacked-an-oil-depot-inside-russia/ar-AAVL5lp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=45d6c44ac7544f04bd7b6a32a1671dba

[Beorning]

It seems like Russians are withdrawing from western Ukraine (the Kiyv area, at least) and will focus a new offensive on Donbas. Which is a sort-of good news, I guess...

The bad news? As Russians are withdrawing, it gets revealed what they did in the places they attacked. And it is... horrible:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60981228

Based on the reports from Bucha and Irpin, as well as what survivors from other areas are saying, it is clear that Russians are deliberately murdering helpless civilians, raping women and engaging in wholesale robberies. This is pure barbarism.

Putin, his government and his military need to be punished. But how can we (as in, the States, Europe and the rest of the civilized world) do it? To put these people on trial, we'd have to invade Russia and arrest them...

You know what I'm afraid of? That this whole war will end with Russia taking over Donbas, declaring a "success" of their "special operation" and forcing Ukraine to sign a ceasefire / peace treaty. And then, the rest of the world will declare another "reset" regarding Russia, another concession to the "realities of global politics"... and, in a few years, Russia will be treated as a normal country once again. And nobody will pay for all that bloodshed...

[Vekseid]

Russia isn't in a position to force Ukraine into anything, at this point.

A great deal of Russian technology has been revealed to rely on Western components.

Between the sanctions, the brain drain the war itself has caused, material loss, and attrition, I suspect Russia will be running out of meaningful advanced hardware in the next few months. 

Ukraine isn't losing support in the mean time. A lot of hardware is taking its 'sweet time' to get there, some workers in Greece managed to hold up promised tanks for two weeks. Still, it arrives, and the people who get in the way are replaced.

There is going to be a point when Ukraine is better armed, better equipped, and better supplied. They are already better trained and more motivated. Their military in theater likely outnumbers Russia's at this point. Ukrainian generals are using Western tactics, Russian generals are promoted from internal security.

And Kadyrov, apparently.

As long as Ukrainians can make progress, there is no particular reason for them to agree to a cessation of hostilities. Especially not after Bucha.

Russia is facing more than just losses. They are facing genuine defeat.

Russian social networks are in apoplectic fits over the attack on Belgorod and the retreat from Kyiv. Kadyrov has been making similar complaints about Russia's performance and 'willingness to compromise' so far.

Actually being thrown out of Ukraine, seeing the Ukrainian military conduct operations on Russian soil with impunity, is going to be something else entirely.

I believe there is a very real chance Putin is going to be forced to expand this conflict into NATO.

Either that, or he will be replaced with someone who does.

Though at this point I would not be surprised if Nevzorov is entirely serious in that video, and Putin actually does ask Biden for help.

[Oniya]

Though at this point I would not be surprised if Nevzorov is entirely serious in that video, and Putin actually does ask Biden for help.

Help to do what?  Write an apology letter to Zelenskyy?

[Vekseid]

Essentially the permitted opposition in Russia is ultra-nationalist. The people calling for more ethnic cleansing in Ukraine right now, criticizing the retreat, etc. These people make Putin seem sane.

Russia also has a kind of Mandate of Heaven thing going on with its autocrats. Putin is not able to make mistakes. If Russia is thrown out of Ukraine, that is unthinkable. Who will be held responsible?

If Putin faces a nationalist coup, who has the ability to keep him safe?

[Beorning]

Here's something utterly scary: Russian news agency RIA Novosti (controlled by the Russian government, of course), released an article on what Russia should do with Ukraine. It's... terrifying:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921

Basically: Ukraine as a state needs to be erased. Ukrainian elite are to be executed, as they are impossible to "reeducate". Every Ukrainian soldier needs to be killed, as they are all Nazis. And the general population of Ukraine needs to suffer due to war, as they offer "passive support" to the "Nazis" that rule Ukraine. And when the war ends, Ukrainians needs to be "reeducated" into abandoning their national identity...

More quotes can be found here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tw1cws/the_russian_manifesto_for_genocide_was_released/

[Oniya]

Essentially the permitted opposition in Russia is ultra-nationalist. The people calling for more ethnic cleansing in Ukraine right now, criticizing the retreat, etc. These people make Putin seem sane.

Russia also has a kind of Mandate of Heaven thing going on with its autocrats. Putin is not able to make mistakes. If Russia is thrown out of Ukraine, that is unthinkable. Who will be held responsible?

If Putin faces a nationalist coup, who has the ability to keep him safe?

Considering that Biden has outright said that he thinks Putin needs to face a tribunal for war crimes, I don't have much confidence that Putin is going to reach out. 

[gaggedLouise]

Considering that Biden has outright said that he thinks Putin needs to face a tribunal for war crimes, I don't have much confidence that Putin is going to reach out.

Also, getting Putin to face a court for war crimes efffectively presupposes regime change in Russia, or there's no chance it would happen. The obvious precedent is Milosevic getting handed over to the west and going to Hague, after the regime alternation triggered by the 1999 NATO bombing campaign on Serbia.

If we suppose that Putin would be ousted from power at some point in the next few years (or sooner than that), and it was achieved just by internal Russian opposition (or even by a military coup) without open coperation in it by NATO, and that the new regime were to jail him; I don't think there's much of a chance that they would actually hand him over to be tried in the Hague. For one thing, handing over the long-standing president to "the enemy" outside to be tried for serious crimes would alienate a huge portion of the Russian people and make them distrust and discredit the new regime. They see him as a man who restored Russia as a major power and a more affluent country after the turmoil and "chaos" of the 1990s. Like it or not, the 90s were disastrous for many people, old and young, in Russia. To many it was the time when both the economy and ordered everyday life tanked. Many millions of people lost their jobs, many people lost their homes or saw them decay, and masses of people (even in public-funded jobs) didn't get regularly paid for years. Their wages more or less disappeared, or were paid partly in natura or by and by, under the table.

And secondly, if a new Russian regime would want to place Putin on trial, they'd probably want to do it themselves for how he had handled interior liberties in Russia, for corruption, money-laundering and clampdowns on free speech, on the news media etc. They wpuld not want to sign away the unique opportunity of putting a former leader on trial for those things, after a quarter of a century under his rule. Handing Putin over to the Hague, in the hands of foreigners, would mean dropping that opportunity: it would probably never come back, because if he were to be convicted at the Hague for war crimes, he would be expected to spend the rest of his life in prison, most likely in the West.

I conclude that saying Putin must be tried for war crimes effectively entails a call for regime change directly assisted and pushed through by the West. Without a determined effort by the West to get the man toppled and get him out of Russia, there's very little chance that such a trial would happen.

[Vekseid]

If Putin is actively overthrown, he's not facing jail, much less a cosy retirement a la Yeltsin.

Thus Nevzorov's' 'joke'.