War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Oniya]

For context, pog is a slur derived from New York slang contemporary to WWI and imported into the military parlance. It comes from the Irish p[size=0pt]ô[/size]g, or kiss, anglicized pogue and spelled that way before the military backronymization of the very late '90s.

As an Army brat, I'd never heard it used as military slang.  I was aware that the punk band 'The Pogues' were originally named 'Pogue Mahone', which was an anglicized version of 'kiss my ____'. 

(In fact, I usually associate the term with those tiddly-wink collectible things that took their name from 'Pineapple Orange Guava' drinks.)

[Leon Weber]

As an Army brat, I'd never heard it used as military slang.  I was aware that the punk band 'The Pogues' were originally named 'Pogue Mahone', which was an anglicized version of 'kiss my ____'. 

(In fact, I usually associate the term with those tiddly-wink collectible things that took their name from 'Pineapple Orange Guava' drinks.)

In my experience its marines who use it the most, but the infantry guys in the Army bandied it about quite a bit as well. Like I stated earlier mostly towards logistical and clerical staff but I was an artilleryman and had it sent my way a time or two.

[midnightblack]

There might be people who are against NATO as they have a different take on its actual function, while not being on the Kremlin's payroll, though. I mean, I'm sorry, but I'd be much happier if my country were to invest that share of GDP in something else than military spending (not entirely sure, but I believe NATO countries are now required to allocate 2% of their GDP by 2024). But then again, my country's not currently on the frontline. Hence, I'd rather postpone any further considerations on NATO at a different time, when (hopefully soon) the Russian government will have come to senses and withdraw the troops. Hope we'll see the end of this madness soon.

In principle I completely agree with you, assuming we'd live in an ideal world. But the reality right now is that a nuclear power under the rule of what is essentially a mirror image of Adolf Hitler and his ghouls is engaged in plain and simple geo-political terrorism. These people have shown zero consideration for any kind of international rules or institutions, even in spite  of formally being a part of the civilized world. And they've shown no consideration or empathy for human life. They're leveling inhabited cities with artillery fire and cruise missiles with no real motivation aside of it being the express desire of a dictator that's completely drunk on power. Through the damage they have caused so far and through the repercussions to follow, they are already directly responsible for genocide.

If you happen to be living in Europe, I don't think it's really the case anymore to distinguish between being and not being on the front line. We are all on the front line right now as the war has nothing to do with Ukraine in particular, but rather with the Euro-Atlantic establishment as a whole and the world order that was constructed after WW2 and the Cold War. World order that had the express intent of ensuring humanity wouldn't have to go through the XXth century ever again. Given what is happening, a strong military deterrent practically becomes a requirement for a country's right to exist. Indeed, on paper NATO requires that member states invest 2% of their GDP in defense, but in practice (and to my knowledge) few member states ever really committed that amount. Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, countries like my own or Germany immediately decided to bump that investment to 2.5%.

[greenknight]

Indeed, on paper NATO requires that member states invest 2% of their GDP in defense, but in practice (and to my knowledge) few member states ever really committed that amount. Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, countries like my own or Germany immediately decided to bump that investment to 2.5%.

Note that Germany's spending has always been, in real dollars, 4th in the alliance, directly behind the lower of France and the UK's spending. This was an intentional gentleman's agreement as everyone was kind of nervous about the second largest economy in NATO spending the second largest on defense. (Someone didn't understand this.) It seems that concern has subsided a bit.

[Beorning]

I tried to find Naomi Klein's stance on the subject, but couldn't. Care to link it?

I cannot, really, as she deleted the relevant Twitter post :)

What she did was forwarding the link to this analysis by Phyllis Bennis:

https://fpif.org/putins-invasion-of-ukraine-is-illegal-and-wrong-respond-with-diplomacy-not-war/

In her analysis, Bennis admit that Putin's war is illegal, but she also claims that it sprung from NATO expanding to the East, which made Russia feel threatened. And she claims the solution is a solemn promise by NATO that Ukraine will never join...  And in her tweet, Klein said this analysis was "excellent". Which prompted a really harsh response by Adrian Zandberg, one of our chief Leftist politicians (and definitely not a blind fan of NATO or the US)... You can see it here:

Spoilered for thread readability

Also, my friend in Łódź has been telling me about the huge display of solidarity by Poles towards Ukrainians refugees. I've been in touch with the local Ukrainian community here in my city. The day they started collecting goods to be sent there, someone vandalized their place overnight. Which is crazy, since the Russian community is rather friendly and the far right guys, well, they are barely relevant. I'm pretty sure the far left isn't involved either, so... I'm puzzled. Are you having troubles with extremists up there?

Unfortunately, I wouldn't call the far right barely relevant here anymore...  And, while the support for Ukraine and the refugees is, overall, very strong here, there are those trying to stoke up the hate  Which is not that surprising, as Polish far right groups tend to also be quite pro-Russian...

Another interesting bit of info: Polish Internet analysts recently presented data that the people, groups and trolls currently spreading pro-Russian sentiment over Polish internet are the same people who, until last week, were spreading anti-vaxxer propaganda...

[Oniya]

Another interesting bit of info: Polish Internet analysts recently presented data that the people, groups and trolls currently spreading pro-Russian sentiment over Polish internet are the same people who, until last week, were spreading anti-vaxxer propaganda...

I've seen graphs showing the flow of misinformation before, aggregating which major accounts are driving the message and how it spreads through their followers.  Fascinating stuff.  We were seeing similar groupings of bad actors during the last election (People spreading anti-vax info were more likely to be spreading pieces about voter fraud and such.)

[Mechelle]

I've seen graphs showing the flow of misinformation before, aggregating which major accounts are driving the message and how it spreads through their followers.  Fascinating stuff.  We were seeing similar groupings of bad actors during the last election (People spreading anti-vax info were more likely to be spreading pieces about voter fraud and such.)

It goes further actually. A couple of weeks ago, we had a succession of three bad storms which came close after each other in Britain, which is very unusual, especially with one particularly affecting the south east of England, with the government advice there being to stay at home.

Anyway, George Galloway, who has been mentioned above, piped up to say that he was not surrendering to the storm, and was taking his children to school, and going about his normal business whatever the government said. While I can certainly understand being wary of our government's advice, there seem to be people who are professional contrarians who automatically rail against any mainstream opinion; as you say, a Venn diagram of people who are ant-Vaxxers, pro-Brexit, anti-NATO, pro storms (!) would be interesting.

[Vekseid]

The Institute for the Study of War seems to believe the Russians no longer have the in-theater ability to encircle Kyiv, if they ever did. Russians have still failed to obtain air superiority, and do not appear to be treating their opponent as a coordinated near-peer military, often dividing rather than concentrating their forces.

To remedy these failures, they appear to be mobilizing more forces to go to Ukraine.

The deal to supply Ukraine with the old Soviet planes is potentially still on, it seems Ukraine got a bit ahead of itself. At issue is that Russia continues to probe airspace (like Sweden's), and for some of the countries involved, this is their entire air force. Poland is better positioned to hand over its planes, but it's still a significant chunk. Hopefully with the transfer of more air assets from the West, this will get resolved quickly.

[Lustful Bride]

Russian's just started shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-forces-attacking-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-in-ukraine-per-multiple-reports/ar-AAUAc4f?ocid=msedgntp


Oh god there is an active firefight there now. This could escalate even worse.

I would say to anyone in Europe to buy some Iodine tablets and milk (since it helps your body fight off radiation), but I am hearing that many vendors are sold out.

[midnightblack]

I would say to anyone in Europe to buy some Iodine tablets and milk (since it helps your body fight off radiation), but I am hearing that many vendors are sold out.

Probably not a good idea and it will only lead to hysteria in the vein of the "toilet paper apocalypse" back when the pandemic started. There is no general way to fight off the effects of radiation aside of not getting exposed to it in the first place. Medical experts do not recommend the use of Iodine in preemptive treatments without prescription. Here's an English resource that I found on the matter:

https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/faqs/ki.html

[Beorning]

To calm everyone down: so far, there's no information about any radiation leaks from the power plant. I just watched the news and our Polish atom-related agency confirmed a lack of increase in radiation levels.

Also, the power plant is currently controlled by the Russian military, but they don't seem to interfere with the plant personnel's work.

[Deamonbane]

Yeah, the first thought I had is that the Russian military probably isn't ordering troops to put themselves in danger by irradiating the area that they're invading.

[Beorning]

I don't know. They sent troops into Chernobyl itself. Not sure if it is safe...

Anyway, I've heard experts say that nuclear reactors in these plants are heavily protected from outside damage. So, the risk isn't as big as it might look.

Overall, let's not panic.

[Leon Weber]

I don't know. They sent troops into Chernobyl itself. Not sure if it is safe...

Anyway, I've heard experts say that nuclear reactors in these plants are heavily protected from outside damage. So, the risk isn't as big as it might look.

Overall, let's not panic.

I believe an agreement is in place that there will not be fighting in or around the Chernobyl Exclusion zone, an image has been making the rounds of a Ukrainian and a Russian soldier in charge of watching the cameras.

Makes for some awkward conversation, I am sure.

[Oniya]

I believe an agreement is in place that there will not be fighting in or around the Chernobyl Exclusion zone, an image has been making the rounds of a Ukrainian and a Russian soldier in charge of watching the cameras.

Makes for some awkward conversation, I am sure.

I think Beorning was referring to an earlier time when there was a documentary made about Chernobyl.  I read an article recently about the filming of that documentary (and how the film was affected by the radiation).

There were troops present at the time, as noted by the filmographer:

“Radiation is a fatal invisible foe. One that even penetrates steel plating. It has no odor, nor color. But it has a voice. Here it is. We thought this film was defective. But we were mistaken. This is how radiation looks,” Shevchenko narrates over the film. “This shot was taken when we were allowed a 30-second glimpse from the armored troop-carrier. On that April night the first men passed here — without protection or stop-watches, aware of the danger, as soldiers performing a great feat. Our camera was loaded with black-and-white film. This is why the events of the first weeks will be black and white, the colors of disaster.”

[Azuresun]

There's a puzzling attachment to Russia in some old lefties - Jeremy Corbyn, our previous Labour leader, was a prime example - which somehow treats modern Russia as though it was still the Soviet Union and a Beacon of World Socialism, and those like George Galloway who hate the US more than they hate fascism for some reason. They clearly never got the memo about the mafiosi that run the place these days. On the right, people like Nigel Farage I assume are in the pay of Moscow directly or indirectly, or else have just swallowed the Kremlin propaganda lines whole.

There were Russian fingerprints all over the Brexit vote and the rumours that were flying around about the EU--it was a trial run for the fake news deluge that they'd use later that year in the US to help get Trump into power. Of course Farage doesn't want to admit that he was a useful finger puppet for Putin. Look up "Cambridge Analytica" if you want to see how it's run.

I've seen graphs showing the flow of misinformation before, aggregating which major accounts are driving the message and how it spreads through their followers.  Fascinating stuff.  We were seeing similar groupings of bad actors during the last election (People spreading anti-vax info were more likely to be spreading pieces about voter fraud and such.)

Disinformation is a full-on industry, and has been ever since 2016 or earlier. All Russia really HAS that even gives them a vestige of super-power status now (rather than a contemptible and tawdry mafia state) is nuclear weapons, and weaponised disinformation campaigns.

And like with anti-vaxxers, you can usually pinpoint the exact day when the handlers in Moscow issue them a new talking point to start spreading, as they all start chanting the same proof-free statement in perfect unison, often using the same language. There's ones about Ukranians using black people as human shields that's seeing a lot of play right now.

[Oniya]

And like with anti-vaxxers, you can usually pinpoint the exact day when the handlers in Moscow issue them a new talking point to start spreading, as they all start chanting the same proof-free statement in perfect unison, often using the same language.

It was even funnier when they all used the same typos.  I spent a lot of time on Twitter during the last administration, and bot-blocking was a full-on job for some accounts.  (Stonekettle used to call them all Sergei.)

[gaggedLouise]

I don't know. They sent troops into Chernobyl itself. Not sure if it is safe...

Anyway, I've heard experts say that nuclear reactors in these plants are heavily protected from outside damage. So, the risk isn't as big as it might look.

Overall, let's not panic.

As a New York friend told me, "they'll be the first army units that have the power of glowing in the dark". :) Actually it turned out later that there was a brief radiation spike around the reactor as the Russian troops marched by - not sure about the reason though.

The fighting close to the big nuclear complex in southern Ukraine looked more threatening - but the reactors there have double backup cooling systems with their own energy supplies, so it couldn't simply have slipped into ovrheating due to a supposed power cut in the area (and there was none anyway). Also, the fuel rods were pulled out of the reactor core when the Russian units got into the region.

[Norwegian One]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

Interesting take on the logistical challenges Russia seems to have faced in the first week-and-a-bit of this conflict.

[Humble Scribe]

Interesting. A prime example of the old military dictum that: "amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics ".

[midnightblack]

Actually it turned out later that there was a brief radiation spike around the reactor as the Russian troops marched by - not sure about the reason though.

Apparently it was due to heavy vehicles and/or possibly explosions stirring up the soil in the area, which still contains radioactive dust. 

[Beorning]

I'll admit that I'm getting more and more worried... Not only about Ukraine, but about where it is all going.

From the reports I've heard, Russians have now regrouped and - with their plans for a "blitzkrieg" victory ruined - are moving toward total warfare, WW2-style. Meaning, they are conducting massive bombings, deliberately shelling civilian targets... They are even shooting at unarmed refugees. All with the intent of terrorizing the Ukrainian population into submission. They are *killing children*. Oh, and there are already reports of Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian women...

I've seen some interviews with Ukrainian journalists, refugees etc. - and they are practically begging for NATO to step in and defend them from what Russia is doing. And with all of this bloodshed and war crimes happening, I'm wondering: can we, from the ethical point of view, afford not to intervene? Can we just stand at the side and wait for sanctions to take effect?

But of course, NATO getting actively involved would be a huge gamble. With WW3 being the quite probable outcome...

... and you can surely guess which countries would be hit by Russia first, if WW3 breaks out...

Agh. How can we stop all of this???

[Bezukhov]

I'll admit that I'm getting more and more worried... Not only about Ukraine, but about where it is all going.

From the reports I've heard, Russians have now regrouped and - with their plans for a "blitzkrieg" victory ruined - are moving toward total warfare, WW2-style. Meaning, they are conducting massive bombings, deliberately shelling civilian targets... They are even shooting at unarmed refugees. All with the intent of terrorizing the Ukrainian population into submission. They are *killing children*. Oh, and there are already reports of Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian women...

I've seen some interviews with Ukrainian journalists, refugees etc. - and they are practically begging for NATO to step in and defend them from what Russia is doing. And with all of this bloodshed and war crimes happening, I'm wondering: can we, from the ethical point of view, afford not to intervene? Can we just stand at the side and wait for sanctions to take effect?

But of course, NATO getting actively involved would be a huge gamble. With WW3 being the quite probable outcome...

... and you can surely guess which countries would be hit by Russia first, if WW3 breaks out...

Agh. How can we stop all of this???

This is horrible and it breaks my heart, having a good bunch of dear friends in Russia. Stepping in would lead to... I don't even know, given all this recent nonsense from the Russian side. And I feel hopeless, now. Whatever happens, it'll take time for such wounds to mend.

[Azy]

It looks to me like Putin just keeps upping things a notch, trying to get WWIII started.  My friend and I were talking the other day, and it seems like maybe he's on his way out, and is trying to blow the world up because he can. 

[Lustful Bride]

Title of the link says it all.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-orthodox-church-leader-blames-invasion-on-ukraine-s-gay-pride/ar-AAUKjc6?ocid=msedgntp


Meanwhile the gays in Ukraine have been fighting hard and scoring victories. 

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/02/ukrainian-lgbtq-activists-fought-captured-group-russian-soldiers/