War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[MetroFallout]

Oh whoops, I think the Hind strike into Belgorod was 5 months ago. Time just seems to blend together nowadays with this war.

[Dashenka]

Ukraine has struck into Russian territory a number of times. 

Has that officially been verified? I remember the event but the Russians claimed it was an explosion in a depot and last I heard the Ukrainians denied involvement. But maybe I've missed something :)

[gaggedLouise]

Oh whoops, I think the Hind strike into Belgorod was 5 months ago. Time just seems to blend together nowadays with this war.

There have been several explosions at Belgorod at different times during the war, at least some of them were caused by missile strikes - but I'm not sure Ukraine has ever openly taken credit for any of them.

[Dashenka]

In case there was any doubt left about the Russians committing war crimes:


(Warning: It might be tough to read.)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62948148



The real fucking tragedy is that nobody will ever be held accountable for it.

[Azuresun]

In case there was any doubt left about the Russians committing war crimes:

The Botski Squad are working overtime to muddy the water on these allegations. The whataboutism, the NO U, the Every Ukranian Is A Soldier Because We Say So, the whole playbook.

Though it was an amusing few days when Ukraine began to recapture territory, and they were collectively struck dumb until the new batch of Kremlin-approved talking points were handed out to the troll farms. Some even dared to hope they'd been called up.

[Beorning]

Oh crap. Putin just announced partial mobilization in Russia...

Also, it seems that the plan is to officially annex the breakaway "republics" in Ukraine - and, then, start claiming that Ukraine and the West is invading Russian territory. And use it to justify launching an official war against Ukraine (and NATO?) - and, maybe, using tactical nukes 

[Dashenka]

Well according to Erdogan, Putin wants to end the war as soon as possible. Getting NATO involved will certainly end it quickly.

[Annaamarth]

Oh crap. Putin just announced partial mobilization in Russia...

Also, it seems that the plan is to officially annex the breakaway "republics" in Ukraine - and, then, start claiming that Ukraine and the West is invading Russian territory. And use it to justify launching an official war against Ukraine (and NATO?) - and, maybe, using tactical nukes 

"Partial" in this case being unclear.

It seems that there are very few limits on how that mobilization can be done - it seems to be only restricted in that government employees and military-industrial employees are exempt, and men of fighting age are no longer allowed to leave the country - or their homes without approval from the local office.

Also, point 7 on the 10 point decree is:

7. For official use.

That's a secret clause.  Cool.

This is de facto mobilization, nothing "partial" about it - that word was used to limit political backlash.

[MetroFallout]

Not like Vladdy boi has any equipment to issue to his massed conscripts given equipment loss to destruction and capture that he absolutely does not have the industrial capacity to replace.

[GloomCookie]

I have a decent idea of what's going on but just so I'm on the same page (and since I'm pressed for time getting ready for work) what precisely does mobilization mean and how is that going to affect Russia and their ability to fight in Ukraine?

[MetroFallout]

I have a decent idea of what's going on but just so I'm on the same page (and since I'm pressed for time getting ready for work) what precisely does mobilization mean and how is that going to affect Russia and their ability to fight in Ukraine?

Mass legal conscription of soldiers. More meat for the grinder and basically actually almost declaring war but de-facto already declaring war as opposed to the euphemistic “special military operation”.

[Dashenka]

It's 300.000 reserves. Part time soldiers. They get trained first.


But as mentioned before, there is hardly any material left to train them with. So while it sounds like a huge number, by the time they are actually going across the border, some time has gone by.




What is means, underneath everything, is that Putin is realising he is losing. And that makes him dangerous, especially when/if those referendums are held. Because that's when Putin can claim it's Russian territory.

And then suddenly, it's no longer a military operation in Ukraine, but a war in Russia. I'd be a lot more worried about that, than 300k part time military personal with poor training and no equipment.

[Annaamarth]

... What is means, underneath everything, is that Putin is realising he is losing. And that makes him dangerous, especially when/if those referendums are held. Because that's when Putin can claim it's Russian territory.

And then suddenly, it's no longer a military operation in Ukraine, but a war in Russia. I'd be a lot more worried about that, than 300k part time military personal with poor training and no equipment.

I agree wholeheartedly - particularly with that secret clause, which could mean anything.

[MetroFallout]

It's 300.000 reserves. Part time soldiers. They get trained first.


But as mentioned before, there is hardly any material left to train them with. So while it sounds like a huge number, by the time they are actually going across the border, some time has gone by.




What is means, underneath everything, is that Putin is realising he is losing. And that makes him dangerous, especially when/if those referendums are held. Because that's when Putin can claim it's Russian territory.

And then suddenly, it's no longer a military operation in Ukraine, but a war in Russia. I'd be a lot more worried about that, than 300k part time military personal with poor training and no equipment.

To assuage your concerns a little, this is where Russian systemic governmental corruption is a net benefit for the world. The American nuclear weapons maintenance budget is almost the size of the entire Russian military budget and that was barely enough to cover the smaller (but in all likelihood more effective due to much better guidance that's likely on par with PGMs) stockpile that America's sitting on. Imagine having to maintain 6000 (?) nuclear weapons on a fraction of the American nuclear budget while dealing with the fact that on every rung of the command chain, some money and material is going to be funnelled/squirrelled away and it would be a safe bet that Russian nuclear weapons are very likely to be mostly inoperable.

Still, even one operational nuke is one too many in the hands of the Russian military.

[Dashenka]

Until they all land on Moscow, I'm still going to worried about Russia's nukes. What's worse than a nuclear bomb? A nuclear bomb with the precision of the Russians.

[Thufir Hawat]

What is means, underneath everything, is that Putin is realising he is losing. And that makes him dangerous, especially when/if those referendums are held. Because that's when Putin can claim it's Russian territory.

And then suddenly, it's no longer a military operation in Ukraine, but a war in Russia. I'd be a lot more worried about that, than 300k part time military personal with poor training and no equipment.

Yeah, that's the part that worries me as well .

[TheGlyphstone]

What Russia claims to be Russia and what the international community accepts to be Russia might not be the same though, especially here in the middle of an active war where most of said international community is already backing Ukraine. It'd make perfect sense for Zelynski to simply say 'no that is still Ukraine' with fairly good odds that the West will back him on it.

The alternative was tried by Neville Chamberlain in the 1930s and we all know how that worked out.

[Dashenka]

Yes every sane person agrees with that.

But Putin has already warned everybody that any attacks against Russia will be retaliated. If he claims Donbass is now Russian and the Ukrainians try to take it back (which they will) that is seen as an attack on Russia.


The question is, if Putin uses chemical or nuclear weapons, what will the rest of the world do. This question is becoming more and more realistic every day the Ukrainians make advances and Putin is still in power.

[gaggedLouise]

I suspect that Russia won't be running out of standard conventional-war equipment, or tanks, missiles and drones, any time soon, and also that they will be able to restock some of their shelf losses over time - through unofficial imports, smuggling and continued production at home...Also, I don't think their armament stockpiles and reserves are half filled with useless trash.

Just watching the evening news over here in Sweden  - their Moscow correspodent had been to the Belgorod area near the border (on the Russian side) earlier today, and he could confirm that the rockets coming in there are clearly Ukrainian. Belgorod has been hit several times before, but the war seems to be moving in a direction where Ukraine will be feeling less and less inhibited by any orders (from NATO) not to fire into legit Russian territory. And of course that could trigger escalation strikes from Russia.

[Azuresun]

What is means, underneath everything, is that Putin is realising he is losing. And that makes him dangerous, especially when/if those referendums are held. Because that's when Putin can claim it's Russian territory.

It makes little difference. Everyone knows what how little a Russian election is worth, it just suits some people to pretend otherwise. And all of those people are already supporting Putin.

[GloomCookie]

Over 1300 people arrested following news of Putin's partial mobilization.
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/21/russia-flights-putin-partial-mobilization-protests

[Dashenka]

I suspect that Russia won't be running out of standard conventional-war equipment, or tanks, missiles and drones, any time soon, and also that they will be able to restock some of their shelf losses over time - through unofficial imports, smuggling and continued production at home...Also, I don't think their armament stockpiles and reserves are half filled with useless trash.

Just watching the evening news over here in Sweden  - their Moscow correspodent had been to the Belgorod area near the border (on the Russian side) earlier today, and he could confirm that the rockets coming in there are clearly Ukrainian. Belgorod has been hit several times before, but the war seems to be moving in a direction where Ukraine will be feeling less and less inhibited by any orders (from NATO) not to fire into legit Russian territory. And of course that could trigger escalation strikes from Russia.

I find that interesting... How does one recognize where a missile is from after it has exploded?

All those 'hits' on Belgorod, as far as I know, have yet to be confirmed to be from Ukraine.


Also, when the Ukrainian army took over the region around Charkov, the Russians allegedly left a lot of equipment behind in their rush to flee. Russia's national budget is already in a deficit, 300k people are drafted into the army, meaning they cannot work and pay taxes so the deficit will only grow. Even if there is money to built tanks and missiles, everybody who knows how to build or transport them, are fighting in the war.

All of this is pushing Putin into a corner more and more and then there is the simple fact that winter is coming and if the Russian army is ill prepared for bog and rain, can you imagine what will happen to morale when winter sets in.

I'm really scared about the short term (this year) outcome of the mobilization and the fact that Ukraine is holding off the Russians and how Putin will react to that.

Over 1300 people arrested following news of Putin's partial mobilization.
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/21/russia-flights-putin-partial-mobilization-protests

There's also a massive run on plane tickets out of Russia. But as long as the police still follow Putin, rioting and demonstrating won't have the result you want. I wish it did but I'm just afraid it doesn't. Unless people go to the streets en-masse. Tens of thousands at the time so arresting people simply is impossible.

[Annaamarth]

I find that interesting... How does one recognize where a missile is from after it has exploded?

On this, specifically, I think I can respond: in short, forensics.

When a missile explodes, there are two things to note: remains of the missile, and the way the missile exploded - the latter was how the characteristic shrapnel-pattern of the Бук was identified with respect to MH17, for example.

Now, I think it is likely that Ukraine would strike into Russian territory because they have done so before - and also because if Russia is about to announce that Ukraine is already on Russian dirt, then why not?

Conversely, if these are badly targeted missiles or targeting primarily civilian infrastructure, then ... well, that would be in keeping with Russian false flag doctrine.  I admittedly haven't followed Belgorod as closely as other matters lately.

I'm also very, very worried about how things are going to be in Russia over the next six months.

[MetroFallout]

On this, specifically, I think I can respond: in short, forensics.

When a missile explodes, there are two things to note: remains of the missile, and the way the missile exploded - the latter was how the characteristic shrapnel-pattern of the Бук was identified with respect to MH17, for example.

Now, I think it is likely that Ukraine would strike into Russian territory because they have done so before - and also because if Russia is about to announce that Ukraine is already on Russian dirt, then why not?

Conversely, if these are badly targeted missiles or targeting primarily civilian infrastructure, then ... well, that would be in keeping with Russian false flag doctrine.  I admittedly haven't followed Belgorod as closely as other matters lately.

I'm also very, very worried about how things are going to be in Russia over the next six months.

Ukraine has HIMARS. They're not lacking in PGMs when the US and basically every member of NATO is attempting to weapons-test in Ukraine against the Russian Armed Forces.

[Beorning]

There's also a massive run on plane tickets out of Russia. But as long as the police still follow Putin, rioting and demonstrating won't have the result you want. I wish it did but I'm just afraid it doesn't. Unless people go to the streets en-masse. Tens of thousands at the time so arresting people simply is impossible.

I've also heard that, since yesterday, one of the most common Google searches in Russia are: "How to get out of Russia" and "How to break an arm at home"...