War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[gaggedLouise]

Turkey in NATO is beginning to look a lot like Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Ankara has been aiming to play on both teams for a few years now, and it's quite possible that Erdogan may have given Putin a secret promise to block Sweden and Finland in any case. And since he has veto power and can decide for himself how to interpret what Sweden and Finland signed up to for Turkey in the famous three-party deal from Madrid six months ago (it was a sketchy agreement), well, he is hard to get around, Plus, if he loses the elections in Turkey the coming summer, the guys that would succeed  him would probably be even less willing to pull down on these demands and "get back in line" for NATO.

[Al Terego]

Erdogan is a schoolyard bully, and your saying that the alternative is even worse is discouraging.

[gaggedLouise]

Erdogan is a schoolyard bully, and your saying that the alternative is even worse is discouraging.

Yes, what makes me angry (and a bit sarcastic) too is that government people here didn't see this kind of trouble coming when they were preparing the NATO bid last spring and summer. Sweden has been a long-standing supporter of the Kurds and their cause, but not of the PKK (which is Erdogan's no.1 target) and many Kurdish people have found Sweden a haven of tolerance for living in freedom, speaking their own language  publishing, cultural activities and so on - all of chich is discourgaed or repressed for them in Turkey, It wasn't hard to see that there would be a conflict of interests here and Erdogan made no secret of his wish to use his leverage (the veto power), our politicians were even warned about this in advance by their own diplomatic staff, but they just chose to look the other way to get it all over with as soon as possible.

IMO our government should just declare "right, our NATO bid is on ice as long as Turkey is not willing to rethink this" and unofficially that's where we are now because there is absolutely no way we're going to send twenty, fifty or a hundred Kurdish dissidents (who have already been checked by police and courts over here, and found generally harmless or innocent - or whose old activities have long since passed a statute of limitations) on a plane to Ankara, tear up their Swedish papers and drop them off there to be tried on charges of terrorism and stuff. That's not happening.

[Humble Scribe]

It's almost as though Erdogan was looking for an excuse not to have to do something domestically controversial. If not this, it would have been something else.

By the way, if you think Erdogan's potential replacement might be bad, wait until you see what replaces Putin (it won't be a cuddly social democrat - the threat to him is from the military, security services and the extreme right).

[Thufir Hawat]

Turkey in NATO is beginning to look a lot like Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Beginning ?

[Beorning]

Something that caught my attention today - a recent interview Roger Waters (ex-Pink Floyd) gave to a German news source. With significant part being about Waters' stance on the war. It's... jaw-dropping, to be honest. Waters comes off as completely divorced from reality... while openly claiming it's the people who condemn Russia that are "brainwashed":

https://www.pressenza.com/2023/02/roger-waters-questioned-in-depth-about-ukraine-russia-israel-u-s/

The most telling part is when Waters admits that he exchanged letters with a teenage girl from Ukraine. And that, when this girl told him that she was 200% sure there were no Nazis in Ukraine, Rogers' response was "I'm sorry, you're wrong. How can you be living in Ukraine and not know about the Nazis?". And he himself says this - as an example how there are so many people who don't know "the truth" about the war...

And here's a lovely bit on Poland (in relation to the fact that, last years, Waters' concerts here were cancelled after people got angry about his opinions on the war):

"This is a big step backwards. It is an expression of Russophobia. People in Poland are obviously just as susceptible to Western propaganda."

Yes, indeed, Mr. Waters. It's us who have Russian missiles exploding near our border and it's us who are in direct contact with hundreds thousands Ukrainian refugees... but obviously, it's us who cannot tell propaganda from the reality. Meanwhile, Mr. Waters, sitting in his comforable house in the UK (I guess?), has a clear and objective view of the situation... 

[Dice]

The nuts thing is the guy was fucking there as the wall came down. He played with the wall behind him. If there is anyone with no excuse to not have educated themselves on the aftermath of 93 and what came next its him.

[Oniya]

Roger Waters has a strange relationship with wars in general.  'The Wall' was partially autobiographical (Waters' own father was killed at Anzio in 1944, as detailed in 'When the Tigers Broke Free'), and 'The Final Cut' is a fairly explicit criticism of world leaders as 'colonial wasters of life and limb'.

[Azuresun]

It's almost as though Erdogan was looking for an excuse not to have to do something domestically controversial. If not this, it would have been something else.

By the way, if you think Erdogan's potential replacement might be bad, wait until you see what replaces Putin (it won't be a cuddly social democrat - the threat to him is from the military, security services and the extreme right).

Bear in mind that Putin tends to play up the awfulness of his peers to some audiences, as well as allowing hyperactively violent rhetoric on state TV. That way, he gets to portray himself as the lesser evil, and actually holding back the violent imperialistic aspects of Russia--rather than the reality, where he created and furiously feeds most of those aspects.

And it plays into the nuclear blackmail game--if Putin doesn't overtly make the threats of nuking Berlin / Kiev / Stonehenge* HIMSELF, he can plausibly deny them as "just a few over-enthusiastic extremists, definitely not being sanctioned by me (unless I decide they are sanctioned by me)". When in reality, those pundits don't move a fingernail without Kremlin approval.

Fascists love to portray themselves as the only thing holding back chaos. The prospect of "someone worse" is no excuse not to hope he drinks some polonium tea before much longer.


* Actual quote from Russian state TV.

Roger Waters has a strange relationship with wars in general.  'The Wall' was partially autobiographical (Waters' own father was killed at Anzio in 1944, as detailed in 'When the Tigers Broke Free'), and 'The Final Cut' is a fairly explicit criticism of world leaders as 'colonial wasters of life and limb'.

It's quite clever how Russia manages to simultaneously get left-wing / anti-US-no-matter-what "tankies" on their side, while appealing to far-right groups. Russia is a BIG blind spot for large sections of the left, because their brand of brutal and murderous colonialism was successfully kept under wraps, or was in lesser-known areas of the world.

[Oniya]

It's quite clever how Russia manages to simultaneously get left-wing / anti-US-no-matter-what "tankies" on their side, while appealing to far-right groups. Russia is a BIG blind spot for large sections of the left, because their brand of brutal and murderous colonialism was successfully kept under wraps, or was in lesser-known areas of the world.

Eh - Waters lumped Brezhnev right in there with Reagan and Thatcher.  I don't think he sees Putin as a 'good guy' - he's just bought into the 'Zelenskyy could end this at any time' rhetoric.

[Beorning]

I don't know. In that recent interview he stated he did believe that Putin's goal was only to "protect the Russian minority in Ukraine" and that the war was provoked by the US. He *did* say that the invasion was illegal - but overall, he seems to be subscribing to the "poor Russia is threatened by the imperialist West and their Ukrainian Nazi puppets" narrative.

Also, according to Wikipedia, he once responded to the concerns of China invading Taiwan with the claim that Taiwan *is* part of China. So, I guess he believes it'd okay for Taiwan to be invaded...

Having read Waters' opinions, he really strikes me as a classic Cold War-era "useful idiot": a type of deluded leftist that rants against the US imperialism, evils of capitalism etc. while turning the blind era to even worse things done by the (former) Communist countries.

[Oniya]

Having read Waters' opinions, he really strikes me as a classic Cold War-era "useful idiot": a type of deluded leftist that rants against the US imperialism, evils of capitalism etc. while turning the blind era to even worse things done by the (former) Communist countries.

Pretty much - I also factor in that he's almost eighty, and probably not quite on the pulse of things any more.

[Beorning]

Here's something interesting...

Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov just took part in some sort of international summit in India. As usual, he continued to spew propaganda... But make note of the audience's reaction:

https://twitter.com/WypartowiczBa/status/1631665233306550272

That really made me feel a little better.

[Oniya]

This is the one where the audience laughed at him when he said that 'they hit first'?  (Grossly simplified)

[Beorning]

Yup! He says that Russia "is trying to stop the war" and that they "were attacked"... and there comes a wave of laughter from the audience :)

[gaggedLouise]

Trump keeps delivering too - in a speech to the MAGA crowd at the CPAC convention he boasted that he had the power and the credibility to end the war even before he had entered the White House to begin his next presidential period (meaning, I suppose, in January 2025 - or did he intend: a lot earlier than that after some kind of coup to overthrow Biden and Harris?)   

In a zigzagging speech, Trump avoided references to DeSantis but repeatedly turned his fire on Biden. “This is the most dangerous time in our country’s history, and Joe Biden is leading us into oblivion,” he said.

Trump insisted that Russian’s Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine because of the US’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. “And you’re going to have world war three, by the way. We’re going to have world war three if something doesn’t happen fast. I am the only candidate who can make this promise: I will prevent world war three.”

He made the unlikely boast: “Before I arrive in the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine ended... I know what to say.”

Trump threw red meat to the base: additional border wall construction and a massive increase in border patrols to stop the flow of illegal drugs, one day voting with paper ballots, a crackdown on trans rights and gender affirmation surgeries. He repeated his false claim that he won the 2020 election “by a lot” when in fact Biden beat him by 7m votes.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/05/i-am-your-retribution-trump-rules-supreme-at-cpac-as-he-relaunches-bid-for-white-house

Ah, hey man?! 

[TheGlyphstone]

Is it weird to say that DeSantis is actually starting to look like the lesser of two evils here? He's just as vile, but not as deranged.

[gaggedLouise]

Is it weird to say that DeSantis is actually starting to look like the lesser of two evils here? He's just as vile, but not as deranged.

I've been thinking along those lines for a few months. But with both him and Trump in the same race, claiming Florida as their home turf, and having to fight for the same sponsors, corporate backers and voters, there's going to be incredible amounts of shitslinging and madcap promises up until the summer of next year. An amazing political freakshow is coming soon - hopefully the two will end up destroying each other's chances to win at the national election, but it's going to get really ugly. 

[Vekseid]

Is it weird to say that DeSantis is actually starting to look like the lesser of two evils here? He's just as vile, but not as deranged.

What DeSantis has done in Florida is more methodical and permanent than anything Trump has managed, short of his Supreme Court appointments. Meanwhile, Trump is not a homophobe or transphobe, whereas DeSantis has effectively turned these things into part of the core Republican platform. Homophobia may not be so prominent now, but it will return in force.

Meanwhile I don't think this conflict will end until Putin dies and various private factions pull out of Ukraine to boost their warlord's position inside Russia proper.

[Sara Nilsson]

Is it weird to say that DeSantis is actually starting to look like the lesser of two evils here? He's just as vile, but not as deranged.

I say that is what makes DeSantis more evil. He isn't deranged so he can actually get his shit done. Look at what he is doing. Trump is mostly just talk since he has the attention span and the brain of a dead imaginary fly.

[Azuresun]

Trump keeps delivering too - in a speech to the MAGA crowd at the CPAC convention he boasted that he had the power and the credibility to end the war even before he had entered the White House to begin his next presidential period (meaning, I suppose, in January 2025 - or did he intend: a lot earlier than that after some kind of coup to overthrow Biden and Harris?)   

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/05/i-am-your-retribution-trump-rules-supreme-at-cpac-as-he-relaunches-bid-for-white-house

Ah, hey man?! 

A withdrawl from Afghanistan that he set in motion.

[Beorning]

Some interesting news...

International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Putin (for the crimes against Ukrainian children):

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64994087

Largely a symbolic gesture at this point, but it's nice to see that.

Also, Poland and Slovakia *will* be giving some Mig-29s to Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64988504

Good! I hope there will be more.

[Beorning]

Not sure how reliable The Sun is, but here goes - apparently, leaked Russian emails reveal the campaign of terror Putin planned for the conquered Ukraine:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21803784/putin-cleansing-ukraine-terror-camps-leaked-docs/

I wonder if the Mr. Roger Waters, the self-proclaimed political expert and Putin's apologist, is going to comment on that...

Also, here's the state of mind of Russian pundits:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqCDKhfdlqs

I wonder if Margarita Simonian genuinely beliefs the stuff she's saying or if she's consciously spinning lies.

(of course, her final comment is... gold  )

[Missy]

We've already got evidence and reports of them beginning to undertake these plans in occupied territories. it's far more than plausible.

[Beorning]

Oh, of course. I have no doubt that this is, more or less, what they wanted to do. I'm just not sure about The Sun or whether this particular source is reliable. But more or less, this was quite probably Putin's plan, true.