War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Azuresun]

Winter's coming and if there's ever been one loyal allie to Russia, it's been winter.

As already mentioned, that myth was slain quite decisively in the war against Finland.

[TheGlyphstone]

As already mentioned, that myth was slain quite decisively in the war against Finland.

And they even called it the Winter War. Just goes to show it's all relative....winter might be Russia's ally, but Finland makes Winter use its safe-word. Helsinki is almost 700 miles north of Moscow, and that's the southern-most coast of the Finnish peninsula.



On topic...if we internet armchair generals can predict difficulties and hard times when it gets cold in Europe, I can't imagine Zelensky doesn't also know he is on a ticking clock. Will the Ukranians be advancing more aggressively to get as much back as they can before their Western support grows fragile?

[MetroFallout]

Like I mentioned earlier. If Putin ever gets away with his nuclear threats or even, God forbid, use an actual nuke in Ukraine, the response from the West must be swift and punishing to avoid a worst case scenario of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. This means the Western support of Ukraine would be significantly stronger strategically than it appears. High gas prices absolutely pale in comparison to the threat of nuclear annihilation from some tinpot dictator hopped up on their own propaganda and believing they could use nukes to enact genocides as they like with no repercussions.

[Dashenka]

High gas prices absolutely pale in comparison to the threat of nuclear annihilation from some tinpot dictator hopped up on their own propaganda and believing they could use nukes to enact genocides as they like with no repercussions.

To whom I wonder.

I'm housing two families in two properties of mine who asked me if they could pay the rent later because they cannot afford it. I know they don't care for the war. It's not their business. A nuclear weapon on and in Ukraine will have very little effect on the UK, radiation wise.

The high gas prices is the only thing on these people's mind right now. So your statement that the high gas prices pale in comparison is invalid.


Morality is all fine as long as you can afford it.

[gaggedLouise]

I read that the EU considers the sabotage of the Nordstream pipe an act of war. So all they need is solid evidence that it was Russia.


No idea what happens then.

I try not to pay too much attention to it anymore. It makes me really scared and anxious.

Sweden and Denmark have promised "a robust investigation" - the leaks happened in our exclusive economic zones. I figure it might not be easy to find conclusive technical evidence of who was behind it, while there are heavy political pros and cons about calling out any one country or agency. Personally I think it's likely that it will be several years before there is any kind of solid, wide consensus, even in Europe and Scandinavia, about who was behind this. Meanwhile, all kinds of theories will grow like mushrooms....

[Beorning]

I wasn't trying to dig, just pointing out that said 19-year old's influence on international politics is likely much smaller than believed. Any excuse to share SATW is worth taking.

I can't really like SATW - the comic's representation of Poland is based on the unfortunate stereotype of Polish car thieves 

[Dashenka]

I can't really like SATW - the comic's representation of Poland is based on the unfortunate stereotype of Polish car thieves 

Car thieves? I thought you were all plumbers who sleep on the build site, drink gallons of Stella and work through the night. I'm joking of course.

[gaggedLouise]

My family and a couple of friends are.

Myself included, if the war would move up to the Baltic Sea region...

[Oniya]

So, it turns out that researchers have actually looked into the global effect of nuclear war beyond the obvious radiation aspect.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0

If you think the weather and food prices are bad now, even a 'small scale' nuclear conflict would introduce enough soot into the atmosphere to significantly impact crop production and marine fishing, leading to serious disruption of the global food supply.

[Azuresun]

Morality is all fine as long as you can afford it.

Which is exactly how Putin got to this point in the first place, to where he could actually inflict this on us. Subtle and not-so-subtle uses of energy blackmail so that he could reliably count on West repeatedly going "Well, we could make a meaningful fuss about the latest atrocity or annexation, but the voters would kick up a stink about fuel prices, let's just kick the can down the road."

It was just so much easier to ignore the guy and hope that after THIS strongly worded statement or slap on the wrist, he'd be satisfied and start respecting the sovereignity of his neighbours and stop screwing around with our democratic processes and assassinating political opponents within our borders.

What's happening now is akin to a boil bursting. Ugly, but it wouldn't have been any prettier if it had had more time to swell up.

[MetroFallout]

To whom I wonder.

I'm housing two families in two properties of mine who asked me if they could pay the rent later because they cannot afford it. I know they don't care for the war. It's not their business. A nuclear weapon on and in Ukraine will have very little effect on the UK, radiation wise.

The high gas prices is the only thing on these people's mind right now. So your statement that the high gas prices pale in comparison is invalid.


Morality is all fine as long as you can afford it.

I can see you don't understand nuclear weapons and the threat they pose.

Look up the yields of Fat Man and Little Boy and the damage they caused in airburst detonation and compare and contrast with Cold War to Modern nuclear weapons, then and only then come talk with me about high gas prices.

And all of that is just heat and blastwave effects at point of detonation on the surroundings without considering nuclear winter from the fallout as per what Oniya linked.

[MetroFallout]

And consider the nuclear weapons-use taboo a la the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) doctrine that's in place from the Cold War till now while you're at it for a more complete picture.

So yeah, abso-fucking-lutely do high gas prices pale in comparison to nuclear annihilation.

[TheGlyphstone]

Dasha is sadly not wrong here though in that most people, the ordinary common voters, aren't going to be thinking of the long term effects of nuclear war or bowing to tinpot tyrants. They're going to be thinking of the short term and how they'll keep the lights on and their kids warm in winter. Selfish and short sighted? You can certainly argue for it. But ignoring that it'll be a pressure is blind - like Azuresun said, Putin has wielded this stick very effectively because he knows it works.

You have to essentially trust politicians to risk setting their own careers on fire to see this through even if their own voters turn against them.

[MetroFallout]

There would be no career in the flames of nuclear war. Your precious natural gas will keep you warm for the rest of your life.

[TheGlyphstone]

If you expect politicians to not be selfish, you have known some incredibly unthinkably altruistic and wise politicians.

You're not wrong. But its ludicrous to insist that an entire group of people defined by their need to appeal to the whims of their voting base are suddenly going to prioritize the long term benefit of humanity simply because its the smart thing to do.

[Dashenka]

I can see you don't understand nuclear weapons and the threat they pose.

Look up the yields of Fat Man and Little Boy and the damage they caused in airburst detonation and compare and contrast with Cold War to Modern nuclear weapons, then and only then come talk with me about high gas prices.

And all of that is just heat and blastwave effects at point of detonation on the surroundings without considering nuclear winter from the fallout as per what Oniya linked.

There would be no career in the flames of nuclear war. Your precious natural gas will keep you warm for the rest of your life.

I don't like your tone and sarcasm but I'll respond anyway.


I understand the threat they pose, especially now and especially from Russia. But I have the luxury of being comfortably able to afford the rising costs of living.


If I would go to bed, freezing and starving, a nuclear bomb on Cherson or Charkov is the last thing on my mind.


This might come as a shock to some people but... some people don't give a shit about Ukraine or Russia because they're not in a position of luxury to be able to afford gas, fuel and food. The only thing on their mind is surviving and feeding their children.


Nuclear weapons are a threat. Not being able to afford electricity or food is a reality for a lot of people.

[MetroFallout]

Levity time!

[midnightblack]

So, it turns out that researchers have actually looked into the global effect of nuclear war beyond the obvious radiation aspect.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0

If you think the weather and food prices are bad now, even a 'small scale' nuclear conflict would introduce enough soot into the atmosphere to significantly impact crop production and marine fishing, leading to serious disruption of the global food supply.

The research actually goes a bit back, to Carl Sagan and his collaborators:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.222.4630.1283

There's probably been some follow-up work as well by some of that group, as well as plenty of simulations done by various university groups over the years. But yeah, the short of it is that any kind of mildly serious nuclear engagement leads to several billions of people dying one way or another.

[Oniya]

The research actually goes a bit back, to Carl Sagan and his collaborators:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.222.4630.1283

There's probably been some follow-up work as well by some of that group, as well as plenty of simulations done by various university groups over the years. But yeah, the short of it is that any kind of mildly serious nuclear engagement leads to several billions of people dying one way or another.

That particular paper was written fairly recently - which actually makes the data range a little surprising.  The low-end was for a 15 kiloton bomb.  I grew up in the 80s, and we were already hearing about megatons when I was in school.  But long story short, if you want to keep 'freezing and starving' off your agenda, you don't want a nuclear conflict anywhere.

[Beorning]

Speaking of the effects of nuclear conflict...

There's this mid-1980s British movie, Threads. It explores in detail the effects of a hypothetical nuclear strike on Britain, mainly through the lens of an average UK town and the people who live there.

It... is one of the scariest and most depressing movies I have ever seen.

[Oniya]

It... is one of the scariest and most depressing movies I have ever seen.

They showed us Fail Safe in either my freshman or sophomore year.  That same year, we were assigned to read On the Beach.

From the latter:  Julian Osborne: The war started when people accepted the idiotic principle that peace could be maintained by arranging to defend themselves with weapons they couldn't possibly use without committing suicide.

[Dashenka]

I've learned in school where the nearest bomb shelter was and how to get there. Cause we got told the Americans had nuclear weapons aimed at Arkhangelsk.



Funny how little shit's changed in 30 years.

[Dice]

They showed us Fail Safe in either my freshman or sophomore year.  That same year, we were assigned to read On the Beach.

From the latter:  Julian Osborne: The war started when people accepted the idiotic principle that peace could be maintained by arranging to defend themselves with weapons they couldn't possibly use without committing suicide.

I saw the 2000 version of On the Beach. One of the more nuts thing I ever watched. It is actually kind of confronting as an Australian to watch it.

[stormwyrm]

I recently read On The Beach... One of the most depressing things ever.

The Day After is perhaps the more familiar show on nuclear war for American audiences. It was influential enough that when President Reagan saw the film a month before it aired on American television on Columbus Day 1983 he said he was "deeply moved" and it changed his mind on the prevailing attitudes to nuclear war.

[Dice]

I recently read On The Beach... One of the most depressing things ever.

The Day After is perhaps the more familiar show on nuclear war for American audiences. It was influential enough that when President Reagan saw the film a month before it aired on American television on Columbus Day 1983 he said he was "deeply moved" and it changed his mind on the prevailing attitudes to nuclear war.

Watch the 2000 movie. The second to last scene is... Oh god. Oh god.