War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Dashenka]

I'm just very concerned what Putin will do once he's really losing grip. The Zaporizhzha power plant is already fragile. A few 'rogue' missiles and the whole area is uninhabitable for eons.

"If I can't have it, you can't have it."

We all know he's perfectly capable of that.

[Humble Scribe]

This looks significant. Certainly Ukraine seems to have achieved a breakthrough east of Kharkiv and the Russians are scrambling to deal with it. A lot depends on logistics, being able to reinforce attacks etc, but it's the kind of combined arms operation that the Russians haven't been able to stitch together in the last 6 months. Also it's looking like Kherson may have been a feint to draw Russian troops away from the east, which seems to have worked perfectly. I'm even hearing Ukraine has achieved local air superiority. Not bad going. If they can pocket and capture significant numbers of Russian troops, this may well lead to some serious soul searching in Moscow, with the options of coming to a deal or moving to full mobilisation.

[Annaamarth]

I'm just very concerned what Putin will do once he's really losing grip. The Zaporizhzha power plant is already fragile. A few 'rogue' missiles and the whole area is uninhabitable for eons.

"If I can't have it, you can't have it."

We all know he's perfectly capable of that.

It's not that simple.  The conditions that caused, say, Chernobyl, were very, very particular, and numerous safety measures have become standard since.

You could cause damage to the reactor very easily - smack it with a big enough hammer (or missiles) until water starts coming out.  Once coolant flow is removed, decay heat removal is removed, eventually the whole thing will start to melt down.

But this isn't Chernobyl, this isn't a graphite-moderated reactor - it's water moderated, so as any leftover coolant boils off, the sustained reaction will be limited, and you won't get a steam explosion as the steam vents from the core into the secondary containment enclosure.  You won't get something like the Elephant's Foot, and any steam release will be mostly clean - if not contained, since we're talking about missiles.

"But wait!" I hear the cry, "what if instead of removing the coolant we went out of our way to heat the coolant up to make a steam explosion?  Wasn't it the steam explosion that popped Chernobyl?"

Well, yeah - but doing that is really, really hard, and it would be really really limited in run-away ability.  In order to do that, you would need someone with very specialized training, a full set of the plant manuals, a full set of tools, and then maybe you could manage to get a Chernobyl-lite.

Let's say you get all those pre-requisite tools and you set up the reactor for a high-pressure steam release!  Then .... it's contained in the secondary containment.  Reactor vessels are designed so that there are particular locations that fail first at under particular conditions, in order to control the way energy is released, and they're also designed so that secondary containment can contain the energy of the reactor vessel full of water turning into not-water-anymore.  The secondary containment isn't just capped by a concrete slab, the way Chernobyl was - it's much more robust.

So ... is it possible for Putin to cause a new Chernobyl?  Eh.  A Chernobyl-lite, maybe, but I don't think a new Chernobyl is on the table without deployment of nuclear weapons - at which point the nukes become the problem, and we've all talked about that before.

[Vekseid]

Lots of people assume all reactors have positive void coefficients, because Chernobyl did. Possibly Putin also.

But right now it is more valuable to Russia as an unspoken threat. This threat has been rather explicitly responded to - any fallout in NATO territory is cause for Article 5.

[MetroFallout]

Lightening things up a bit, how do y'all feel about NAFO?

[Annaamarth]

Lots of people assume all reactors have positive void coefficients, because Chernobyl did. Possibly Putin also.

But right now it is more valuable to Russia as an unspoken threat. This threat has been rather explicitly responded to - any fallout in NATO territory is cause for Article 5.

The wiki on Void coefficients.  Typically, and explicitly with reactor safety in mind, a strong negative void coefficient is design in for any pressurized water reactor - which, the VVER-1000 at ZNPP are.  They are reactors designed with the expectation of no voids, which means that if any steam bubble has occurred, the reactor is in a failed state.  The design is such that those voids will very strongly push reactivity down/negative, which will reduce reaction rate, power output and, therefore, temperature.

There are other reactivity coefficients, such as the reactivity coefficient of coolant temperature - as water, the coolant in the VVER-1000, gets hot or cold, small changes in density and neutron reaction cause changes in how reactivity behaves.  PWR such as VVER-1000 are typically designed with a negative temperature coefficient - this means that if temperature starts climbing in the reactor, reactivity will go down, dropping reaction rate and power output until the reaction rate - and temperature - stabilizes.  It is an inherently stable design.

This means that even if you try to break it the reactor itself will fight you every step of the way.  It's kinda easy to break the reactor - it is really hard to pull a Chernobyl.  Dropping missiles on it until the secondary containment breaks, continuing until the reactor vessel breaks, and then watching a small steam plume come out would be headlines - but you would have an ecological disaster of the sort Chernobyl was, and threatened to be, even with ZNPP being right on the Black Sea.

Lightening things up a bit, how do y'all feel about NAFO?

Memes.  Sometimes worth a chuckle, but I don't typically live in the meme-o-sphere, even at the expense of Putin.

[Humble Scribe]

Russian sources are now suggesting Izyum has fallen. If so, that means in just 3 days the Ukrainian Army has managed a massive encirclement, driving a hook across then down, some 70-80 km (45-50 miles), and potentially cutting off and surrounding up to 10,000 Russian troops. That's a disaster for the Russians.

[Dashenka]

Let's hope that's all true. And that they can keep it obviously. Taking it is one thing, keeping it a whole different thing.

But it's hard not to get too excited about news like this :)

[Annaamarth]

Let's hope that's all true. And that they can keep it obviously. Taking it is one thing, keeping it a whole different thing.

But it's hard not to get too excited about news like this :)

Agreed.

But apparently politics in Moscow have gotten spicy.  Official calls for Putin to resign, do I understand that right?

[Beorning]

Lightening things up a bit, how do y'all feel about NAFO?

What's NAFO?

BTW. Something I saw today - a Russian tank running away so fast it's losing soldiers on the way and hitting a tree...

https://twitter.com/new_geopolitics/status/1568286056654454784

But apparently politics in Moscow have gotten spicy.  Official calls for Putin to resign, do I understand that right?

The police already got to them, I've heard...

[Dashenka]

And even if they haven't, the chances of Putin resigning are about as high as you winning the lottery.

[Lustful Bride]

What's NAFO?

Its a group of people using Doge memes to poke fun at Russian disinformation campaigns and trolling Russian officials on social media who all keep parroting the same party line.

Here is an interview with one of the founders of the group. They literally just started out trolling for fun, and then suddenly people are paying them to make Doge avatars so they can join in and it just spiraled out from there

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOMZEEkPCi8

[Humble Scribe]

And even if they haven't, the chances of Putin resigning are about as high as you winning the lottery.

True. But I hear windows can be quite dangerous in Russia.

[MetroFallout]

What's NAFO?

NAFO is more or less a volunteer/freelance group focused on counterintelligence on behalf of Ukraine using doge avatars by disrupting Russian narratives with fact checks and general trolling.

[Humble Scribe]

Fightning now reported in Lyman and Lysychansk and, down south, Donetsk Airport, which Ukraine hasn't held since 2014. Russia is now calling its headlong retreat a "decision to regroup" - presumably a bit like the "goodwill gesture" when it was bombed out of Snake Island.

[Vekseid]

"All we can do is wait for our orders."

Gotta love Soviet leadership. Removing all independent thinking from your rank and file is truly showing its merits.



Meanwhile, Ukraine claims to have taken Donetsk Airport after a few hours of fighting. Putin ordered the Oblast captured by the 15th.

They're really going to have their work cut out for them on the 14th. Pushilin seems to have great confidence in the Russian Army's ability to do so.

"Ukraine has yet to prove themselves on the offense" they said.

"The Russians are dug in, it's much easier to defend than attack" they said.

Saw someone claim Izium would be "Russia's Mariupol."

Now it's "This is Narva not Tsushima"

Chinese social media has gone from supporting Russia to ambivalence to completely dunking on them.

There's no clear line or place for this advance to stop, either, at least in the East.

[Dashenka]

I'm really hoping this is all real and that they can keep hold of the reclaimed cities and ground.

That would be the best news in a long long time.

[Vekseid]

Well, they can setup or reestablish TDF units just about everywhere they recapture, minus some parts in original DPR territory.

Numbers for current Ukrainian forces are at best guesses; it is possible they are pulling from US doctrine here. "Look at how pathetic we are. Look at how undersupplied we are. UKGermanyUKAxisUSSRIraqRussiaChina is so scary. Oops did we drop a zero at the end of our numbers there? Look, if a single zero makes it look like we have a problem, we have a problem!"

Point being it is entirely possible Ukraine's army already dwarfs Russia's, and they need to do everything they can as fast as they can before Putin thinks it is a good idea to actually mobilize for war.

[midnightblack]

Not sure if it's really confirmed at the moment independently of Ukraine's intelligence, but apparently Denis Pushilin, the "president" of the "Republic"  of Donetsk has done what would have been expected of a burrow rat valiant son of the Russian World and fled the "country".

[Beorning]

Point being it is entirely possible Ukraine's army already dwarfs Russia's, and they need to do everything they can as fast as they can before Putin thinks it is a good idea to actually mobilize for war.

I certainly hope that's the case!

BTW. Regarding the earlier news about Moscow officials calling for Putin's resignation - I mentioned that the police is already after them. It seems that I conflated two separate incidents... Yes, the people from Moscow called for Putin's resignation - but just a day or two before, there was also a report of local politicians from Petersburg making an official statement that Putin is *a traitor* and should be removed from power. And these are the people Russian authorities are aiming to prosecute.

So... in a single week, there are two separate instances of groups of local politicians openly criticizing the war and attacking Putin. We can only hope that this is the sign of the tide turning and some sort of rebellion again Putin's regime starting in Russia...

[TheGlyphstone]

So that brings a question to mind: what would a post-Putin Russia even look like? He's held an iron grip on the country for decades, and to the best of my knowledge has no designated successor. Assuming he's deposed before he nominates/backs someone as a replacement, who would be in the running to seize power that he hasn't already crushed out of potential rivalry?

[Annaamarth]

I'm really hoping this is all real and that they can keep hold of the reclaimed cities and ground.

That would be the best news in a long long time.

For now, it seems likely.  I think the biggest heartbreak to come is going to be "how similar to Bucha is this?"

I think it is ... unlikely that Russian armed forces will be able to mount a swift response (except possibly by VDV units - but VDV unsupported by regular forces tend not to do well.  They aren't a conventional force, they're, well, a special force).  They may rally to a defensive posture, but I don't expect a counterattack.

The reason for that is kinda complex - I'm gonna get into something in which I am not formally educated but in which I have firsthand experience - military doctrine, particularly with respect to how senior enlisted personnel and junior officers are expected to behave and what duties they have.

The West, NATO and, most relevantly here, Ukraine have a culture where an NCO cadre - sergeants and the like - are expected to lead, to train, to teach, to guide; not only to train their junior soldiers, but also to guide the junior officers that are in charge of them.  Further, those junior officers are expected to show initiative and forethought.  Every NCO and JO are expected to know and understand the mission, and to take actions relevant to it as opportunities arise.  An archetypal example would be the actions taken by Company E, 2nd Battalion, 506th PIR on D-Day - the unit featured in the show Band of Brothers, for those who've seen it, but you can look up the story online, if curious.  In summary, their birds were shot down or disorganized by AA fire and their commanding officer was missing.  Rather than being paralyzed by the lack of command structure they identified and silenced targets that would have punished the greater war effort, both AA and arty.

Ukraine has demonstrated a similar culture here.  Nobody expected the Russian line to collapse like it did, and while breakthrough plans might have been discussed, there is no way they could have planned for the exact scenario that occurred - so, forward units just kept going, clearing zones then looking for new zones to clear, along a salient of attack that they understood was a priority.

Russian armed forces, by contrast, have a culture of following plans - and orders - to the letter, to the best of their ability.  We saw this during the Russian offensive towards Izyum and before, when Russian mechanized were rushing past Ukrainian emplacements rather than securing their sides and rear, and then were punished for it.  We've seen it again recently - in fact, during this offensive.  A Russian POW was interviewed, a tanker, and it was asked why his tank didn't fire.  It couldn't - the autoloader was broken.  There were other tanks that did fire, but they couldn't move - leaking oil.  These were the units they had and were told to engage with, which was untenable - but they did it anyway, because those were the orders.  NCOs, rather than being guides, are more like security forces whose role is to chivvy conscripts into line.

This Russian doctrine seems to be very top-down, and very inflexible.  They have little ability to commit a counterattack except with reserves, and I don't think they have sufficiently-organized reserves except for VDV.

So that brings a question to mind: what would a post-Putin Russia even look like? He's held an iron grip on the country for decades, and to the best of my knowledge has no designated successor. Assuming he's deposed before he nominates/backs someone as a replacement, who would be in the running to seize power that he hasn't already crushed out of potential rivalry?

Unfortunately, the most powerful sentiment in Russia still seems to be a very ... Russia-first mentality.  The strongest political faction is Putin's own - watch out for ultranationalist successors who decide that Putin's vanity has brought the time for his successors.

It's not certain of course, but I'm concerned this war may have sent Russia down the path to become the Hermit Kingdom 2.0

[Callie Del Noire]

So that brings a question to mind: what would a post-Putin Russia even look like? He's held an iron grip on the country for decades, and to the best of my knowledge has no designated successor. Assuming he's deposed before he nominates/backs someone as a replacement, who would be in the running to seize power that he hasn't already crushed out of potential rivalry?

Most of the likely opposition successors have been locked up, killed or exiled

[TheGlyphstone]

Unfortunately, the most powerful sentiment in Russia still seems to be a very ... Russia-first mentality.  The strongest political faction is Putin's own - watch out for ultranationalist successors who decide that Putin's vanity has brought the time for his successors.

It's not certain of course, but I'm concerned this war may have sent Russia down the path to become the Hermit Kingdom 2.0

Most of the likely opposition successors have been locked up, killed or exiled

Those actually concern me more (the ultranationalists), assuming there is more than one of them. If they start feuding to claim Putin's vacant throne, it could turn from ugly to catastrophic unless there is some specific general or advisor that would be able to stand ahead of the rest.

[Callie Del Noire]

Those actually concern me more (the ultranationalists), assuming there is more than one of them. If they start feuding to claim Putin's vacant throne, it could turn from ugly to catastrophic unless there is some specific general or advisor that would be able to stand ahead of the rest.

Yeah. When Putin dies a LOT of his minions will follow him quickly. They are scared of Putin cause he knows where the bodies are buried. His computers and files will be burned fairly quick too