Werewolf 3; VILLAGERS WIN!!

[Intimate Ink]

Ok, so NightOwl, Ceralilly, Christa, KatKwik, and Rel Mayer.

Which two are the wolves now?

I've been wanting to avoid shining a spotlight on this, because I have been very torn about both Amber and Saffron, and have wondered if I'd see signs of further innocence or guilt if I kept quiet.  Now that it's so out I see no reason to stay this quiet about it, though.  Everyone will be on their most careful behavior I imagine now, regardless, so I'll share my thoughts: 

I'm generally not very trustworthy of people anyway who come out in blind defense of someone.  The problem is that not only does it divert attention, but even if they are lynched and turn out looking innocent, that just is a good way to look innocent themselves in the aftermath.  Yes, I get the "I can't give you my reason or I'll put a target on my back" argument, but.. uhm... when you say exactly that, didn't you just put a target on your back anyway?  It always sounds to me like a last ditch attempt at shaking off shade.

Beyond that, reviewing logs it's really hard for me to see Saffron's logic that Amber is being a scapegoat for wolves.  She came out swinging early in different directions, and within a day she switched from Mint being awesome on the side of what is good and right, to voting for Nightowl, to implying she was saying she was not so suspicious of Aiden anymore, (even though he wasn't who she ever voted to lynch..?), to wanting to lynch Mint , to agreeing with NightOwl's points even though she recently accused him, and then implicating everyone who voted for her as potential wolves.

Is she innocent and confused so trying to attach pieces where she can?  Perhaps.  I really don't see the scape-goat argument at all, though: that's a lot of fingers to be pointing to not be expecting some to be pointing back.

I'm even trying to make up a story to myself where they both have inside information that has influenced the rapid changes of heart and allegiance to each other, but at Day Two I just don't see that a possible scenario; not enough time for that much extensive vetting.  Even if you have somehow vetted each other it doesn't explain the wildly accusatory behavior of half the village. I'm not particularly comfortable with either of you right now.

As for the Seer AND Priest (this goes for Amber AND Vera): Isn't 'have them look at me' a bit of a redundant argument?  I'm quite certain everyone on this board would say they'd welcome those attentions, EVEN the wolves and the Lycan, since it would be rather damning otherwise.  Both of those are limited resources, though, and it's only to the wolves' advantage if they burn through them on confirming either the already likely innocent or already likely guilty.  On top of that, one of the wolves will show as a villager anyway, so that is a 25 percent chance that a guilty party will look innocent.   

[NightOwl35]

How long have we got until voting closes?

It's the weekemd, so I'll give an extra day, votes are due in by Monday evening, 7:30 pm central!

Still have awhile before voting closes.

For now, my vote stays for reasons I stated earlier though if something new arises I'm willing to change it. There are a few others I'm currently looking at, but am waiting to see if more can convince me to switch to them instead.

[Autumn Sativus]

I have no allegience to her, if I thought she were a wolf I'd have voted with the rest of them. I simply believe her when she says that's she's a villager. I have suspicions of who might be wolves, of course I do, everyone of us does or should be formulating those ideas. Just because my suspicion is that this tackle on Amber is almost certain to include some of the baddies, it doesn't mean I'm on her side or suddenly changing any allegience. My vote remains the same as it always was until I see a reason to believe otherwise.

[AmberStarfire]

Some people are more changeable than others. Following intuition doesn't necessarily equal confusion. Sometimes following your intuition (especially when you're used to it) can guide you in the right direction.

I do find it ironic that Rel and Mint gave reasons on why myself or others shouldn't be vetted by the seer or priest, and should just be lynched instead. Given that villagers are a majority, that would help out the wolves if the people lynched are innocent. It's true that one might be turned, but knowing who isn't a wolf, even at the start, can help give information on who is.

[Mintprincess]

Some people are more changeable than others. Following intuition doesn't necessarily equal confusion. Sometimes following your intuition (especially when you're used to it) can guide you in the right direction.

I do find it ironic that Rel and Mint gave reasons on why myself or others shouldn't be vetted by the seer or priest, and should just be lynched instead. Given that villagers are a majority, that would help out the wolves if the people lynched are innocent. It's true that one might be turned, but knowing who isn't a wolf, even at the start, can help give information on who is.

So then, by your logic, which is wait until we vet you before we lynch you by using the Seer, why are you voting for me instead of telling the Seer to vet me before you place your vote?  Sounds like a good plan.   Seer.. I would vet me Night 3 to confirm my villagerness, otherwise, please, no one vote to lynch me until then because I haven't actually yet been vetted as a wolf.   

My reason was that we can't vet everyone.  The Seer vets one person a night and if the seer doesn't see a wolf that means we have to guess based on what we know. 

My reason for the priest NOT using their power tonight was pretty clear.   Anyone vetted is too good of a ALpha-bite target.

I think those reasons make sense.   

I think we still will have to lynch someone.

I've never said I would lynch you. I haven't even voted.  Even though your vote stands for me, your logic has been flawed the entire time, and that's been pointed out by way more than four people so this isn't a case of 'wolves jump on Amber', I still haven't voted for you. I still haven't decided.   But if you keep throwing shade, I can't see any other choice.

I have no allegience to her, if I thought she were a wolf I'd have voted with the rest of them. I simply believe her when she says that's she's a villager. I have suspicions of who might be wolves, of course I do, everyone of us does or should be formulating those ideas. Just because my suspicion is that this tackle on Amber is almost certain to include some of the baddies, it doesn't mean I'm on her side or suddenly changing any allegience. My vote remains the same as it always was until I see a reason to believe otherwise.

There is a difference between choosing not to cast your vote for someone and openly acting like they are a vetted villager.  "I believe you Amber" is what you've said, which is basically allying with her, like it or not.   It's one thing to say I'm not ready to cast my vote for you.   IE: I think you're shady as a rainforest, but I'm not ready to vote for you either.   It's another to state that you believe someone and will be on their side about them being a villager. 

My reason for supporting her is that I believe she's being singled out as a scapegoat by at least two wolves, maybe more. I think she's innocent and people that I have been eyeing sideways are the ones throwing the shade on her. These are my speculations, and I'm not prepared to share my methods with the class yet. I think if we kill Amber, we'll find a villager. There are only so many of us we can "afford".

[AmberStarfire]

Just do what you feel is best. If the priest revives me they do (and that would be their choice) and if I'm not lynched and the seer confirms my allegiance, then I don't mind at all. Lynch me and you'll find out the truth. I'm tired of explaining myself over and over, because I don't really have anything that new to add.

I voted for you because I think you're a wolf (despite the reasons I'd have preferred not to vote for you). However, given that you're the Sheriff, it likely wouldn't be a bad idea if the seer did confirm your allegiance. It's still up to me whether I vote or not, and who for, the same as with everyone else. I won't be pressured into changing my vote.

I still see the priest as a safety net if you were voted to be lynched, if you're a villager, because I don't hold with the opinion that to save someone from lynching is necessarily a bad thing. I believe an alpha bite could still be fended off by the bodyguard if that were the case (and if the bodyguard decided to do that)? Besides, if I was saved from lynching (or another person was), my identity would be quite obvious. I'm not sure the wolves like me enough at this stage to turn me. Most likely they'd try to kill me in my sleep because I'm too much of a pain in the ass.

[Madame Professor]

You must feel very sure to say that. Why is it you feel I shouldn't even be looked at by a seer?

Just reading back over the roles, the Priest is also a possibility.

Honestly, I'm of the same mind as Rel.

And the Priest should have their power until Day 3, since the Wolves have the turning power available to them Night 2. That would be a waste, vetting someone before the turn.

[Galactic Druid]

Lynching Votes

AmberStarfire - 4

No Lynching - 2

Remiel - 1

MintPrincess - 1

Seranova - 1

Verasaille - 2

Yet to vote: Mint, Ink, Sunshine, Madame, Cera, Aiden, Der, Myobi

Roughly 23 hours until voting ends!

[yugi006]

I think Vera is a better option than Amber.

I voted.


Just a reminder that the Wolfman and Lycan is in play so even if the Seer did see a villager or wolf there is the chance they could be one of those roles.

[Galactic Druid]

Sorry, there's a lot to keep track of on here.

[Madame Professor]

Just do what you feel is best. If the priest revives me they do (and that would be their choice) and if I'm not lynched and the seer confirms my allegiance, then I don't mind at all. Lynch me and you'll find out the truth. I'm tired of explaining myself over and over, because I don't really have anything that new to add.

I voted for you because I think you're a wolf (despite the reasons I'd have preferred not to vote for you). However, given that you're the Sheriff, it likely wouldn't be a bad idea if the seer did confirm your allegiance. It's still up to me whether I vote or not, and who for, the same as with everyone else. I won't be pressured into changing my vote.

I still see the priest as a safety net if you were voted to be lynched, if you're a villager, because I don't hold with the opinion that to save someone from lynching is necessarily a bad thing. I believe an alpha bite could still be fended off by the bodyguard if that were the case (and if the bodyguard decided to do that)? Besides, if I was saved from lynching (or another person was), my identity would be quite obvious. I'm not sure the wolves like me enough at this stage to turn me. Most likely they'd try to kill me in my sleep because I'm too much of a pain in the ass.

Just as a note, the Bodyguard does NOT block the Alpha bite. It's unblockable.

I voted.


Just a reminder that the Wolfman and Lycan is in play so even if the Seer did see a villager or wolf there is the chance they could be one of those roles.

And yes, this is true, however, the rewards out way the risks. Even with the cover in play, the Seer is still a good help, so discrediting the role isn't doing it justice.

I'm going vote for Saffron at the moment. I could be persuaded to change, however.

[yugi006]

I'm not discrediting it. I'm just saying that there is always the chance that the Seer might have looked at one of those two roles.

[Mintprincess]

I'm not discrediting it. I'm just saying that there is always the chance that the Seer might have looked at one of those two roles.

And should that happen and the lycan is taken out, it happens.   The Seer is the best shot we have to scry out wolves. 

Unofficial, my vote will be for one of the following people:  Amber, Saffron, Sunshine, or EmyKat

The first two based on the shade.  The second two based on no activity.   Like it or not, silence is not a strategy I'm good with.

[Aiden]

I can agree with that, I would rather take someone not playing then someone active.

So I will say Emykat 

[yugi006]

It is the weekend so some people might be busy which is why they might not be active at all. Also there are some people who are just quiet all the time like Sunshine who will vote when she needs to and that's about it. She is like that in every game I've played with her.

[Esoteric Myobi]

Hmm, I think for now I'm going to go with No Lynching. Mostly because I'm not entirely sure who to vote for. Yes, some people seem shadier to me than others at the moment, but I feel like if I were in their position I can sort of understand where they're coming from so there's not quite enough for me to think they're actually a wolf that should be hung (yet).

Of course, I realize that with so many people in play, someone is more than likely going to be lynched by the end of the day. If something fishy(er) comes to light before then, I will most certainly be changing my vote. Well, if I manage to catch up on all the posts before then anyway. It unfortunately takes me a while to read through all the posts!

[Galactic Druid]

10 hours to get those votes in!!

[Ceralilly]

Im genuinely stumped again...I DO have my suspicions. All of which have at least one vote. I am realllly learning as I go here...but I think I'm catching on. I WILL vote for A lynch. I just am not sure which one of three that I feel more strongly inclind towards. I feel like we have a higher chance at lynching a villagers...and maybe it is naive of me but...why risk killing one of our own just to eliminate rhe suspicion that they are wolf? I know domeone will explain to me...I appreciate you guy's patience as I learn the ropes in this village.

[Verasaille]

Vera yawns and starts up the espresso machine. "Good morning all!"

Guy! May we have an update on this page of the current votes? I may change mine. I know how you feel Cera. It is confusing the first time through. The fact that people lie and create alliances behind the scenes is what makes this game exciting and fun. Try not to take it too seriously. Give a good guess or roll the dice to see which one loses.

Usually the ones who have played this game a lot have theories and alliances all figured out. But it is not always the experienced ones who do the best. Sometimes a fresh perspective can see things. If you really want to analyze, you can make a chart and write down who supports who and who changes their mind a lot and who is chatty, etc. But it all comes down to who makes a convincing case of being a villager during the lynch phase, and who has possibly made behind the scenes deals with the wolves, as they seek to find the furry devils.

People will lie in PM's as well. Or at least not tell the whole truth, because they will be as untrusting of you as you are of them.

[Intimate Ink]

After some consideration, I have decided to cast my vote for Saffron.

My highest levels of mistrust now come from her and Amber.  It was, admittedly, a close choice but I figure that if Amber is lynched I will feel that I have no further insight into Saffron’s innocence:  Saffron speaking for her (though I do acknowledge that position was either clarified or ‘walked back’ a bit depending on how you look at it,) could be interpreted as her standing up for a guilty teammate.  It could also be seen as aligning herself with a guilty-looking innocent so if the guillotine dropped on Amber and a good alignment was revealed, it would leave Saffron looking innocent, too.

On the other hand, if Saffron is shown as evil I would feel reasonably strong in my guess that Amber is.  It would tend to make me think that Saffron was standing up for a guilty teammate.  Similarly, if Saffron is shown as good, well… as unfortunate as that would be… it would tend to make me think Amber and her have been sharing information and that Amber, too, has a high chance of innocence.

Mind you, nothing is certain, particularly due to the lycan and wolfman roles.  The results of one seem to at least provide more interesting information to mull over than the results of the other, though.

Still, I feel this is my best play: I welcome counter-opinions between now and closing time.

Edit: Broke up two paragraphs with a carriage return that were intended to be separate that were pushed together, omitted an extra 'is'.

[AmberStarfire]

Oh good, morning (or rather, afternoon here) coffee. Hello Vera.

Saffron stood up for me when no one else did. I actually consider that a nice gesture, and it admittedly irritates me a bit that she's getting so many lynch votes for actually being nice and what I consider to be a voice of reason.

[Autumn Sativus]

It's okay. I know how these games go. By stating my choice to believe you, I've started an unspoken alliance - the curtains could not simply just be blue. )

Whatever yo I'm a people. Kill me, don't kill me. S'all good. If you do, then you'll have a better idea of who to point fingers at right?

IF MY DEATH HELPS MY VILLAGE, TAKE ME SWEET DARK EMBRACE.

[Rel Mayer]

It's okay. I know how these games go. By stating my choice to believe you, I've started an unspoken alliance - the curtains could not simply just be blue. )

Whatever yo I'm a people. Kill me, don't kill me. S'all good. If you do, then you'll have a better idea of who to point fingers at right?

IF MY DEATH HELPS MY VILLAGE, TAKE ME SWEET DARK EMBRACE.

Hahaha! I'm not supporting you to survive, but that really cracked me up.

[Intimate Ink]

Hahaha! I'm not supporting you to survive, but that really cracked me up.

+1

[Verasaille]

I have been reading back through all the posts and I am loving this! A big group does offer a lot of different opinions. I find it easier to make a decision if I go back through and look at all the comments and see if I can spot any trends.

I would still like a vote count, I lost track and I hope Guy is keeping up with it! Just to keep myself from getting too many more than the current favorite, I will vote for the majority.