President Joe Biden

[Chaeronea]

@Andol   If you're worried about the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline affecting US jobs you might want to consider the following data.

According to the Perryman Group contracted by Keystone the pipeline would create 20 000 construction jobs and approximately 118 000 person-years of spinoff jobs - not 118 000 jobs. However a study by the State Department noted that the Perryman Group did not provide details of the data it used, and its own study put the job estimates at less than a third of the Perryman Group's figures.A Cornell University study suggested the number of jobs the pipeline would create is closer to 2,500 and a report from the U.S State Department found that the pipeline would create approximately 42,100 temporary jobs for a one to two year period.

The Colorado Independent reported that "“During construction, there would be temporary, positive socioeconomic impacts as a result of local employment, taxes on worker income, spending by construction workers, and spending on construction goods and services...The construction work force would consist of approximately 5,000 to 6,000 workers, including Keystone employees, contractor employees, and construction and environmental inspection staff.” The Independent also noted that with Phase 1 of the Keystone pipeline "only 11% of the construction and inspection workforce in South Dakota was hired locally," and also noted that "forty percent of the steel for the first phase of the project came from Canada, he said, and ten percent from India, and if this model continues the spin-off manufacturing jobs will be in those countries."

In contrast an article in Forbes magazine in April 2019 cited high demand for jobs in the renewable energy sector due to several states setting targets of sourcing 100% of their energy from renewable sources by 2050. A figure quoted in the Forbes article was 335 000 people working in the solar industry and more than 111 000 working in the wind industry compared to 211 000 working in coal mining and other fossil fuel extraction. Clean energy jobs grew by nearly 4% in 2018 and by 2% in 2019 and the US Bureau of Labour Statistics has wind turbine service technician and solar panel installer as two of the three fastest growing occupations in the United States - and these jobs don't require a college education.

So, to summarise, the Keystone XL pipeline won't create as many jobs as people assume, most of the jobs generated won't be in the areas where the pipeline is being constructed (or in the United states full stop) and the renewable energy sector is a much greater source of ongoing employment than the short-term jobs the pipeline may provide.

And that's not counting environmental damage from the Keystone pipeline like the 383 000 gallon crude oil leak in the North Dakota pipeline in 2019.

[Fox Lokison]

And there was me concerned this would be a very unpopular opinion. Phew.

There seems to be this perception that things are okay now that the blue guy is in office, and that problems aren't as severe. That we won. It's over. But it's not over. This was step one, yet it's very "stop talking about this, did you want Trump to win, Biden's not that bad". It's very much got that energy of "shut up, we finally got some scraps thrown our way, don't ask for the whole meal, you're being greedy".

But then again people of very disparate political beliefs were united under the cause of "Get Trump Out". Now that he's gone... old tensions are back.

[Humble Scribe]

@Andol   If you're worried about the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline affecting US jobs you might want to consider the following data.

Keystone is not really an issue for the US. It's an issue for Canada, and how it gets its oil sands syncrude to market, but the US will happily live without it.
Most of Keystone is already built, and there are other trans-border pipelines - it's just one section that's being argued over, and all the cancellation will do is push more syncrude onto the railroads or westwards to be exported by sea. It won't kill Canada's oil sands industry or save much environmentally. It's purely a symbol.

[Montagne]

There seems to be this perception that things are okay now that the blue guy is in office, and that problems aren't as severe. That we won. It's over. But it's not over. This was step one, yet it's very "stop talking about this, did you want Trump to win, Biden's not that bad". It's very much got that energy of "shut up, we finally got some scraps thrown our way, don't ask for the whole meal, you're being greedy".

But then again people of very disparate political beliefs were united under the cause of "Get Trump Out". Now that he's gone... old tensions are back.

Topic on Bill Maher tonight - why are the BLM protestors in Portland not giving Biden a chance and against him as well. I can foresee the emergence of a political narrative that the far left are as bad as the far right being picked up by the liberal press once it becomes clear that the containment and isolation of left wing demands becomes more essential.

Also I foresee whatever this new security law is to tackle domestic terrorism being used 100% of the time on environmentalists, BLM and general left wing groups. I think any idea that you are going to use the powers of the US state against white supremacists is incredibly wishful thinking.

[Fox Lokison]

Topic on Bill Maher tonight - why are the BLM protestors in Portland not giving Biden a chance and against him as well. I can foresee the emergence of a political narrative that the far left are as bad as the far right being picked up by the liberal press once it becomes clear that the containment and isolation of left wing demands becomes more essential.

Also I foresee whatever this new security law is to tackle domestic terrorism being used 100% of the time on environmentalists, BLM and general left wing groups. I think any idea that you are going to use the powers of the US state against white supremacists is incredibly wishful thinking.

I don't have a lot of hope for Biden to tackle the issue of white supremacy. That isn't to say he wouldn't want to, that he's in bed with them, that he's inefficient - it's the simple matter that a lot of tensions in this country are coming from civil rights protests, and people pushing for - at least in American terms - radical change. Massive societal change. Those things are unlikely to be achieved under Biden. I'm expecting more things like reversing the trans military ban. Things that are important, sure, but are more PR stunt than anything. Trans rights in America are still significantly iffy, the trans panic defense still exists, access to care, to housing, to jobs... I'd prefer that tackled before "we can serve in the military", but it's good PR.

TBH that's half of why I started the thread on white supremacists and the wider alt right. Taking our eyes off them right now is what they need to recover. Unless Biden decides they're the more pertinent threat to order and civility, they're gonna endure.

[Oniya]

I'm expecting more things like reversing the trans military ban. Things that are important, sure, but are more PR stunt than anything. Trans rights in America are still significantly iffy, the trans panic defense still exists, access to care, to housing, to jobs... I'd prefer that tackled before "we can serve in the military", but it's good PR.

It's a little more than that - although it would be better to have it codified instead of being an EO that the next administration could re-reverse.  Having a discriminatory ban on a group in one part of the federal government (in this case, the military) is a camel's nose for that group to be banned in the rest of the federal government.  The 'Family Research Council' includes keeping the trans military ban in place as part of its whole anti LGBTQA agenda.

[Fox Lokison]

It's a little more than that - although it would be better to have it codified instead of being an EO that the next administration could re-reverse.  Having a discriminatory ban on a group in one part of the federal government (in this case, the military) is a camel's nose for that group to be banned in the rest of the federal government.  The 'Family Research Council' includes keeping the trans military ban in place as part of its whole anti LGBTQA agenda.

Yeah, that's true, I was admittedly simplifying because politics have fried my brain today. Been a lot of infighting in some circles.

I do agree that it's a good step. But also, it's a good PR move at the same time, and given how much weight people are willing to put into the one thing... That's my frustration. We did it around gay marriage. "Oh the Supreme Court made it legal, discrimination is over", but each state kept their laws that allowed them to discriminate. Jobs, housing, adoptions, medical care (and who qualifies as a partner when you need it)... It was all still shot to hell, and efforts to change it stagnated for a bit. There was a lot of pushback to "hey this is great but we need to keep the momentum going", and I'll admit I don't have a lot of hope that this is going to be different. These are great first steps. But there's a lot of steps to go. I'd like us to make 'em.

So yeah, definitely agree that it sets a MUCH better precedent, but I hope that's not all we're doing. Precedent isn't going to solve my immediate problems. We definitely need to keep the momentum going.

[Haibane]

Biden overturns Trump transgender military ban

[Yukina]

My major concern with the incoming Biden administration as a leftist who does not live in the USA; and who has no major buy in to US politics other than what effect the USA has internationally, is that any legitimate criticism of the Biden administration from the left is going to be immediately countered by people's relief that it's not Trump anymore.

I feel like this trend began during the Trump administration when the FBI and CIA ended up with a higher approval rating among liberals than among conservatives (for the first time I imagine ever). The liberal media for the past month has been filled with positive images of cops and the military when it felt like only a few months prior liberals were generally waking up to the systemic problems inherent on both those institutions.

The Republicans have now become so extreme that any left-wing criticism of the Biden administration can easily be countered as beyond the pail because "it is enabling the republicans, who are a threat to democracy". Or just generally ignored by peoples rush to "go back to normal". This is dangerous in the long run because it A) doesn't address the myriad destabilizing effects the USA has on the international community, and B) doesn't address any of the domestic issues that lead to Trump and will lead to the election of an establishment republican with a similar contempt for democracy being elected in 2024.



***

These concerns aside, I'm very happy to see Biden signing back up to the Paris Climate Accords, and the Iran Deal. There are definite differences between the two parties and those are very positive moods in the right direction. I'm now hoping he will take a less confrontational, and more reconciliatory approach towards China to cool off the growing new cold war between the two superpowers. That would really help avert long term disaster and improve international order globally.

Thirded

[Skynet]

The Biden administration is directing the Department of Justice to not renew contracts with private for-profit prisons. This is a good step forward, but it does not apply to all such prisons. Notably the ICE camps, which are under purview of the Department of Homeland Security.

A step forward, but not as large of a step as some headlines suggest.

[Haibane]

Biden is extremely serious on carbon emissions, renewable energy and declaring the fossil fuel era to be over.

These are more aggressive and widespread policies than I was expecting.

[Chaeronea]

Keystone is not really an issue for the US. It's an issue for Canada, and how it gets its oil sands syncrude to market, but the US will happily live without it.
Most of Keystone is already built, and there are other trans-border pipelines - it's just one section that's being argued over, and all the cancellation will do is push more syncrude onto the railroads or westwards to be exported by sea. It won't kill Canada's oil sands industry or save much environmentally. It's purely a symbol.

That's not why I put up my post. I put it up into Andol's statement about the loss of jobs that cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline would bring to the United States by pointing out -

1) it would create a lot fewer jobs than claimed
2) most of those jobs wouldn't be in the United States
3) more jobs are being created in the renewable energy sector than the fossil fuels sector.

[Andol]

That's not why I put up my post. I put it up into Andol's statement about the loss of jobs that cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline would bring to the United States by pointing out -

1) it would create a lot fewer jobs than claimed
2) most of those jobs wouldn't be in the United States
3) more jobs are being created in the renewable energy sector than the fossil fuels sector.

I am talking about the jobs lost from those working on it. Given the unemployment situation right now in the US... the lose of those jobs was unacceptable, and unless those people are regaining their jobs in the renewable energy sector... it does them zero good.

[Chaeronea]

I am talking about the jobs lost from those working on it. Given the unemployment situation right now in the US... the lose of those jobs was unacceptable, and unless those people are regaining their jobs in the renewable energy sector... it does them zero good.

What jobs? The jobs that would have come about with the construction of the pipeline? As I pointed out, most of those jobs would not have been in the United States let alone in the areas where the pipelines were being built. As I linked to in my earlier post about the Keystone XL pipeline, most of those jobs are a lie. The figure of 118 000 jobs that is bandied about from the original report was a quote for 118 000 person-years, so if all those people were employed they would only be working for a single year. And a study by the State Department showed that the number of jobs generated would be a third of those figures quoted by the Perryman Group report at best. The Colorado Independent reported that during the construction of the South Dakota portion of the Keystone pipeline only 11% of the jobs generated were in the local area.

In other words there would be relatively few jobs generated by the Keystone XL pipeline. And as Humble Scribe pointed out most of the economic benefits would be to Canada, not the United States.

The existing jobs in the fossil fuels industry? The coal industry is dying due to the decreasing cost of natural gas and renewables. By contrast, as I pointed out in my earlier post, solar panel installer and wind turbine service technician are two of the three largest growing occupations in the United States according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they don't require college degrees.

So to sum up, the existing Keystone pipelines are still operating so the people working on them are still employed. There are far fewer jobs in the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline than were originally promised, and even those are far fewer jobs than the existing renewable energy sector provides. An expanding renewable energy sector will increase this even further, making even more jobs for people who have worked in the fossil fuels sector.

[Haibane]

Biden himself has highlighted that communities impacted by the shutting down of fossil fuel industries will be the target of initiatives to re-educate workers and re-employ them in the renewables sector.

This resistance to change is almost head-in-the-sand tactics. In the 1950s the car manufacturing industry employed tens of thousands across the globe, if not hundreds of thousands but increased mechanisation and robotisation has pared those jobs down by a significant factor.

Industries change. Technology changes. Societies change. There can be no progress if we do not change. Many changes impact jobs and livelihoods and in the past unemployed workers and their families have suffered. Look at the Welsh valley coal mining communities in Britain in the 1960s and 1970s. Thousands unemployed and with the unemployment rates up above 33% in some communities. That was the past. We know differently now how to address such massive local changes. At least we now live in an age where a conscientious government will re-educate and re-train workers whose old livelihoods are gone.

Renewable energy such as solar and wind are fast growing industries and that is where the future blue collar jobs lie.

[Fox Lokison]

I am talking about the jobs lost from those working on it. Given the unemployment situation right now in the US... the lose of those jobs was unacceptable, and unless those people are regaining their jobs in the renewable energy sector... it does them zero good.

My dude, we're talking about a project that both damaged the planet and the lives of people around it, and you wanna talk about lost jobs as the most important thing?

I can't with that. I just can't. People can learn new skills. You can't unpoison a water supply. You can't fix a damaged planet past a certain point. You absolutely can find new jobs for people, so if your beef is with lost jobs, put the effort into helping education programs become more affordable, pushing green energy initiatives that need workers, and helping those people get better jobs, instead of keeping a harmful thing because it provides employment.

We're providing employment by having bloody camps full of prisoners at the border, too, and those fuckers should be shut down.

Not every job is a good job, that talking point is so stale it's not even funny anymore.

[Beguile's Mistress]

From personal experience I know that many of those employed in the fossil fuels industry come from a generational background of mine workers.  Moving out of a traditional family-centric field can be problematic for some workers.  Some groups are trying to encourage the retraining and are attempting to show that other fields are less hazardous to the health of the worker than deep or surface mining.  They are also emphasizing the fact that the alternatives are more ecologically sound than surface mining and will cause less damage to populated areas than the collapse of deep mining sites.

A change is philosophy is needed to show the men and women losing their jobs that they can move on without losing their self-assurance.

[Haibane]

The film "October Sky" tells this story in a very encouraging way. I watch it often and each time I see it, I am given hope.

[Haibane]

A change is philosophy is needed to show the men and women losing their jobs that they can move on without losing their self-assurance.

It strikes me again and again that a step-change in education is the way to fix all manner of issues. Not for this generation, but for the next, and the next after that, and for those that follow.

[TheGlyphstone]

The film "October Sky" tells this story in a very encouraging way. I watch it often and each time I see it, I am given hope.

Have you read the book it was based on, Rocket Boys? It's (as is typical) even better than the movie in every way.

[Haibane]

I didn't even know it was based on a book. Thank you. I will go grab a copy.

[Aiden]

It's been two weeks and it is weird not hearing about a scandal regarding the president.

[Haibane]

Must be a cover up. Has he lied recently? Assaulted any women? He surely can't be just keeping his head down and doing his job, that's outrageous.

[PrincessBuggy]

It's been two weeks and it is weird not hearing about a scandal regarding the president.

Hidin Biden...  -_-

He's remained pretty aggressive on all fronts so far, whereas it seems that the moderate lefties really have to worry about has been Manchin and Sinema all along.

[TheGlyphstone]

Must be a cover up. Has he lied recently? Assaulted any women? He surely can't be just keeping his head down and doing his job, that's outrageous.

Maybe he died after inauguration and is being replaced by a robot duplicate to keep people unaware...