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Author Topic: North Korea threatens to commit suicide  (Read 5086 times)

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Offline The OverlordTopic starter

North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« on: May 27, 2009, 03:15:36 AM »


We all know this has been going on for a long, long time. There were bouts of saber rattling during the Clinton administration, and I’ve lost track of how far back they’ve been playing their brinkmanship, but I’m sure it encompasses the whole of the period since the Korean War armistice.


I’ve read the various commentaries by geopolitical analysts over the angles and limitations that North Korea can take, including the path to renewed war if it feels it’s painted into a corner. Of course, as far as dictators go, Kim Jong-il is about two nuts short of a complete fruitcake, the last two he’s going to need to prove he’d play his final hand here. Thing is, it's a corner of his own making.

They keep saying that sanctions aren’t enough to truly hurt this country, but given the extremely provocative actions they’ve taken, including firing a missile over Japan, testing a nuke, and now firing more missiles and directly threatening war, I have to say something has yanked this guy’s chain but good.

I’m beginning to wonder how close we are now. He’s a crazy guy with a big gun, but he’s standing in a cage full of irate lions. Sooner or later one of them is going to hit first.


Based on all I’ve read, renewed war on the Korean peninsula is going to make Iraq look like a backyard brawl. If North Korea attacks, have no doubt that the US will strike, and we’ll strike with a ferocity that will make the entire world stand back and think twice about ever fucking with us again. If our military doesn’t hand the DPRK tens of thousand of corpses on the first day of the war, they won’t be doing their job; that’s how you have to handle a million+ army, you have to shock it into submission and bleed it white.

I just have to say I’ve been following this, and wonder if we’re finally going to see it go down.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090527/ts_nm/us_korea_north


Quote

orth Korea threatens attack if ships checked


SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea, facing international sanction for this week's nuclear test, threatened on Wednesday to attack the South after Seoul joined a U.S.-led initiative to check vessels suspected of carrying equipment for weapons of mass destruction.

The threat came after South Korean media reported Pyongyang had restarted a plant that makes weapons-grade plutonium.

President Barack Obama is working to form a united response to Monday's nuclear test, widely denounced as a major threat to stability that violates U.N. resolutions and brings the reclusive North closer to having a reliable nuclear bomb.

A North Korean army spokesman reiterated that the country was no longer bound by the armistice signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War because Washington had ignored its responsibility as a signatory by drawing Seoul into the anti-proliferation effort.

"Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels including search and seizure will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike," the spokesman for the North's army was quoted as saying by the official KCNA news agency.

South Korea announced on Tuesday it was joining the naval exercise, called the Proliferation Security Initiative.

An angry Pyongyang, which relies on arms sales for cash, had said it considered such a move an act of war.

The nuclear test has raised concern about Pyongyang spreading weapons to other countries or groups. Washington has accused it of trying try to sell nuclear know-how to Syria and others.

The rival Koreas have fought two deadly naval clashes in 1999 and 2002 near a disputed maritime border off their west coast and the North has threatened in the past year to strike South Korean vessels in those Yellow Sea waters.

Pyongyang also test-fired a third short-range missile late on Tuesday after it added to tensions with the launch of two others earlier in the day, the South's Yonhap news agency quoted a unnamed government source as saying.

The secretive state appears to have made good on a threat issued in April of restarting a facility at its Yongbyon nuclear plant that extracts plutonium, South Korea's largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, reported.

"There are various indications that reprocessing facilities in Yongbyon resumed operation (and) have been detected by U.S. surveillance satellite, and these including steam coming out of the facility," it quoted an unnamed government source as saying.

The Soviet-era Yongbyon plant was being taken apart under a six-country disarmament-for-aid deal and there were no signs yet that the North, which conducted its only prior nuclear test in October 2006, was again separating plutonium.

Seoul's financial markets, which had fallen in the wake of the nuclear test, rose on Wednesday though traders said investors were still nervous about when the North would try to be more provocative and ratchet up tension in the region.

KIM'S HEALTH, SUCCESSION IN FOCUS

Analysts say Pyongyang's military grandstanding is partly aimed at tightening leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power so he can better engineer his succession and divert attention from the country's weak economy, which has fallen into near ruin since he took over in 1994.

Many speculate Kim's suspected stroke in August raised concerns about succession and he wants his third son to be the next leader of Asia's only communist dynasty.

The country, which has a history of using military threats to squeeze concessions out of global powers, may have ramped up its provocations early in Obama's presidency in order to have more cards to play during his time in office.

There may be little the international community can do to deter the North, which has been punished for years by sanctions and is so poor it relies on aid to feed its 23 million people.

A Treasury Department official said it was weighing possible action to isolate the North financially.

A 2005 U.S. clampdown on a Macau bank suspected of laundering money for Pyongyang effectively cut the country off from the international banking system.

Japan's upper house of parliament denounced the test and said in a resolution the government should step up its sanctions.

North Koreans celebrated, with a rally in the capital of top cadres, KCNA said.

"The nuclear test was a grand undertaking to protect the supreme interests of the DPRK (North Korea) and defend the dignity and sovereignty of the country and nation," it quoted a communist party official as saying.

North Korea's meager supply of fissile material is likely down to enough for five to seven bombs after Monday's test, experts have said. It could probably extract enough plutonium from spent rods at the plant for another bomb's worth of plutonium by the end of this year.

The North's next step may to be resume operations at all of Yongbyon, with experts saying it could take the North up to a year to reverse disablement steps. Once running, it can produce enough plutonium for a bomb a year.

The hermit state has also threatened to launch a long-range ballistic missile if the Security Council does not apologize for tightening sanctions to punish it for an April launch widely seen as a missile test that violated U.N. measures.


Offline HairyHeretic

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Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2009, 06:00:37 AM »
There are a couple of things they could be doing here. One is to up their status, in the hope of a stronger bargaining position at whatever round of talks come next.

If they continue with the war rhetoric, that's dangerous, because public statements have to be acted on if they want to keep face. They may be hoping that China would support them should it come to anything military. I'm not sure what the relations are like bewteen China and North Korea, but that seems to be the best place to apply some backroom pressure.

Offline Lithos

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2009, 06:28:54 AM »
China has not had too warm relations to other communist countries for a good while, since China chose to embrace capitalism as heavily modified part of the system rather than to stick with keeping it completely out. I do not really see china and north korea being in terribly good relations.

The way north korea is acting makes absolutely no sense, they should be making allies instead of new enemies. And you need strong economy to be able to withstand any sort of war, it is like they are deliberately choking themselves to nothing. And in the end it is the ordinary people there who pay the price for it I think, with all the sanctions to trade, the quality of living there is bound to be pretty crappy.

The ugly thing is that they do have a weapon that can cause great losses now. It is still suicidal though, China, Russia, USA among many others have more than enough arsenal to bomb them right back to stone age, and if someone is stupid enough to strike anywhere with nuclear weapons, I am pretty sure that none of the big players will just stand aside watching. Ballistic missile is not something you wave at people when having a temper tarantum and what north korea is doing seems to be just that.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2009, 06:33:32 AM by Lithos »

Offline Trieste

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Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2009, 07:08:22 AM »
I am so sick of hearing about WMDs.

We'd better find them this time, is all I really can say to that.  >:(

Offline Vekseid

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2009, 07:12:03 AM »
"Pretty crappy"? The people in North Korea live thirty years behind the westernized world, gather plastic bags to recycle, and consider selling their daughter to a Chinese farmer to be giving her a leg up on life.

I am so sick of hearing about WMDs.

We'd better find them this time, is all I really can say to that.  >:(

Well, he's detonated two, even if they were duds by American standards. That's a few steps above what Saddam had.

The United States would not be driving an invasion of North Korea, however. It would almost certainly be predominantly South Korean or Chinese, with backing from the US and Japan.

Offline GS3XXAristo

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2009, 08:16:09 AM »
I'd be extremely worried if North Korea went down the warpath, personally, for several reasons:

1. Manpower. Everyone in that country (not counting their armed forces and Special Commando's, a number which they have the highest amount in the world) would sacrifice themselves for a fight. Yeah, they'd probably have alot of deserters and low morale, but if you're about to die, you'd probably feel like taking everyone out with you.

2. The DMZ. While S. Korea has all the advanced weaponry, skill, and U.S. forces backing, they still only number about 660,000. On the N. Korean side, however, the number exceeds a million. It's common belief (here in the army at least), that the DMZ extending down to Seoul would be captured quickly (including our 2nd Infantry Division at Camp Red Cloud, who'd probably make it out in time, but lose the camp anyway).

3. The Goal itself. Both the North and South have forces working behind each other's lines, waiting for the moment to sabotage, etc. Eventually, the South and U.S. would win, but the damage caused, including to Japan (N. Korea's intent on some of its nukes is to attack the Japanese bases, including Kadena, which has America's largest Air Force contingent) would be devastating.

4. Chemical Weapons.

People, you don't even wanna know how many chemical weapons they have and how they'd deliver them. I'll put it this way though: we will have casualties should they use them. We Air Defense won't be able to get all of them, sadly enough.

Offline Vekseid

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2009, 09:00:38 AM »
I think the claim that North Korea would get anywhere is insulting to South Korea.

1. North Korea's manpower is a paper tiger, and claiming that they would fight against their southern brothers offering them food is just silly. North Korea is pretty much fully and entirely militarized - the five million they have is the best their numbers are ever going to look like. Once the war gets on, the Russians in the Winter War will look like strategic geniuses in comparison.

Or put another way, Iraq was in better military and internal political shape than North Korea is now. You cannot counter a Western military (such as South Korea's) with pure numbers.  Even China publicly acknowledges that a direct military confrontation with the US is 'like throwing an egg against a rock'. You need to win the political war and the political war is not on North Korea's side, at all.

2. A shock attack might hit Seoul, but it won't be able to take it. I mean, seriously, who do you think has better endurance?


The South Korean army has a military reserve of over three million. I somehow do not think they will all vanish in an assault.

3. South Korea needs a functioning missile before it becomes a threat to Japan.

That leaves chemical weapons, really, and the question of how many officers would obey such an order.

Offline Zakharra

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2009, 09:20:29 AM »
 Unless China puts on pressure, it's unlikely N. Korea will ever back down. China has the biggest strings in regard to  yanking N. Korea's  actions since they supply most of the food, energy, materials and  basics for  keeping N. Korea at the level they are now. If China stopped shipments, N. Korera would collapse in only a few months.

 Jim jon Ill is the one that keeps pushing things. He's an idiot and bully that, unfortunately, has access to fairly powerful weapons. I do not think he is mentally stable either.

Online RubySlippers

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2009, 10:20:06 AM »
I have a simple idea - let nations like that have any weapons they like. If they decide to fire these at the United States be clear our response be devestating and will use our nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes can be devestating and precise.

But if they want a few fine, why is that our business they seem to be paranoid let them sit behind their borders then and be paranoid.

Offline Lithos

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2009, 11:36:52 AM »
That is how things work allready, the world peace is mostly maintained by that balance. It is the emergence of someone who does not really care about repercussions and nukes million city or two that is the problem. Even in modern politics human lives have some value and if whacked enough person gets big guns, it causes some worry.

In this case, the south Korean leader seems to be mentally unstable enough that he might well nuke some large city, if he gets the full means for it. He has the nukes, but I do not think that they have well enough working vessel to deliver the payload, at least I hope that they do not.

Even if you do not care about human lives at all, think about what impact to world economy tokyo or new york getting blown off the map would have at the current depression. The effect would be serious and world wide even if the attacker was wiped out in hours after the first strike.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2009, 11:51:56 AM by Lithos »

Offline HairyHeretic

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Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2009, 11:59:12 AM »
I have a simple idea - let nations like that have any weapons they like. If they decide to fire these at the United States be clear our response be devestating and will use our nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes can be devestating and precise.

But if they want a few fine, why is that our business they seem to be paranoid let them sit behind their borders then and be paranoid.

What makes you think they'd use a missile?

If I wanted to nuke a country I'd load a nuke onto a container truck and send it by ship ... ship it through a couple of countries to blur the trail, and have it just one cargo container amongst hundreds on some big freighter. Let it sail into my enemies port city then watch the pretty fireworks from a distance.

That's what you have to be wary off. Not the missiles. The battlefield deployable nuclear artillery and one person who doesn't care if they live or die. Not a huge blast radius, but set it off downtown in any major city, and it doesn't have to have.

Offline GS3XXAristo

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2009, 05:32:02 PM »
Quote
1. North Korea's manpower is a paper tiger, and claiming that they would fight against their southern brothers offering them food is just silly. North Korea is pretty much fully and entirely militarized - the five million they have is the best their numbers are ever going to look like. Once the war gets on, the Russians in the Winter War will look like strategic geniuses in comparison.

According to the U.S. Department of State, North Korea has the fourth-largest army in the world, at an estimated 1.21 million armed personnel, with about 20% of men aged 17–54 in the regular armed forces. North Korea has the highest percentage of military personnel per capita of any nation in the world, with approximately 1 enlisted soldier for every 25 citizens.

It's not a question of who would win (UN, obviously) EVENTUALLY, but the damage done in the beginning would be no less of a concern. And that quote above doesn't count the 24 other citizens who can fire a weapon just as effectively, women and children included.

Quote
Or put another way, Iraq was in better military and internal political shape than North Korea is now. You cannot counter a Western military (such as South Korea's) with pure numbers.  Even China publicly acknowledges that a direct military confrontation with the US is 'like throwing an egg against a rock'. You need to win the political war and the political war is not on North Korea's side, at all.

Insurgents do it all the time. You see, politically, the US in particular would end up looking bad regardless of the outcome. Hell, N. Korea could detonate all 7 of its nukes on its own soil and put the blame on us. Eventually everyone would understand we DIDN'T, but if I learned anything about the world's population attitude toward the US, its that the Mob Mentality takes prescidence above all else, sad as that sounds.

Quote
A shock attack might hit Seoul, but it won't be able to take it. I mean, seriously, who do you think has better endurance?

Judging from historical evidence (Korean War), I'd say N. Korea would get it first. Yeah, we'd take it back eventually, but like I said in my first post, it's pretty much guaranteed that everything near the DMZ will have to be retaken. And that's from a military perspective. I'd like to quote one veteran I know that's served there twice, but only if need be.

Quote
The South Korean army has a military reserve of over three million. I somehow do not think they will all vanish in an assault.

Obviously not. But let's not forget who those soldiers are...or, and I hope you catch my drift, who S. Korean forces might "think" they are. (Sabotage/Spy reference). Still, the majority of them are probably loyal enough, and no, they wont all vanish in an assault, but a vast reduction in number of those on the DMZ is a given.

Quote
South Korea needs a functioning missile before it becomes a threat to Japan.

Please don't be fooled by all those failed launchings of their Nodong and Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles. We've run scenarios against them. Not all of them are duds. I'd like to elaborate but for security purposes I can't. Of course, that's kinda weasel-ing out of it XP. Sorry. If I can think of a safe way to explain the point, I'll let you know. Or you can google it. Im sure its there somewhere.

Quote
That leaves chemical weapons, really, and the question of how many officers would obey such an order.

Who knows such a thing? Heck, who even knows if they get Officers to actually make that call. I dunno if they have Command Sergeant Majors or the like, but his desire would hold high up there with, lets say, a Battle Captain (again, if they have those), not to mention they probably have enlisted members at the actual launch console (if so. I know we do).







Offline Vekseid

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2009, 08:07:09 PM »
What makes you think they'd use a missile?

If I wanted to nuke a country I'd load a nuke onto a container truck and send it by ship ... ship it through a couple of countries to blur the trail, and have it just one cargo container amongst hundreds on some big freighter. Let it sail into my enemies port city then watch the pretty fireworks from a distance.

Considering the half life of an initiator is measured in months, good luck with that.

According to the U.S. Department of State, North Korea has the fourth-largest army in the world, at an estimated 1.21 million armed personnel, with about 20% of men aged 17–54 in the regular armed forces. North Korea has the highest percentage of military personnel per capita of any nation in the world, with approximately 1 enlisted soldier for every 25 citizens.

And it's breaking them. And for what? Look at what a three to one numerical advantage did for Saddam in the first Gulf War. American troops were ordered to pull back in order to avoid it becoming a massacre.

North Korea does not even have a 2:1 numerical advantage over the forces stationed in the South. North Korea would be lucky to give a quarter million troops sufficient mobility to mount a serious invasion. Starvation amongst your people is not a sign of high-quality logistical capability.

Quote
It's not a question of who would win (UN, obviously) EVENTUALLY, but the damage done in the beginning would be no less of a concern. And that quote above doesn't count the 24 other citizens who can fire a weapon just as effectively, women and children included.

...does North Korea even have thirty million rounds of usable ammunition? /snark

But the worst of it is, you are insulting South Koreans. You make the claim that every last man, woman and child in North Korea can fight - never mind that no civilization in the history of mankind ever managed to mobilize more than a third of its population, and that -no- South Korean will.

Quote
Insurgents do it all the time.

Show me a mass formation of insurgents marching in lock-step and I will show you a lot of dead insurgents. North Korea, to my knowledge, is the only nation on the planet that would seriously consider engaging US-derived tactics in such a manner at this point. The first Gulf War pretty much sealed the fate of formation tactics for the rest of the world.

Quote
You see, politically, the US in particular would end up looking bad regardless of the outcome. Hell, N. Korea could detonate all 7 of its nukes on its own soil and put the blame on us. Eventually everyone would understand we DIDN'T, but if I learned anything about the world's population attitude toward the US, its that the Mob Mentality takes prescidence above all else, sad as that sounds.

Why?

Not one single American soldier needs to be present in South Korea for South Korea to crush the North. As I understand it, the only reason we are there is to assist the South Koreans in getting mobilized should they need to.

This is, of course, above and beyond the fact that we are acting on the part of the defense in such a situation. American support for such wars is traditionally in the 80% range. Good luck on the PR war to overcome that spread. Where was this mob mentality during WWII or the first Gulf war that you speak of? Even Afghanistan or the Korean war enjoyed a far greater amount of support.

Quote
Judging from historical evidence (Korean War), I'd say N. Korea would get it first.

That's like saying Britain could take over New England because they beat us up a lot in the war of 1812. South Korea is a bit more mobilized than that now.

1.2 million, largely unmechanized (or the effective equivalent), starving troops, is going to take a foreign city of 35 million people defended by three million reservists and three-quarters of a million activated soldiers, under complete air superiority?

Kim can't take Seoul. He knows it. That's why he has a bunch of guns pointing at it instead.

Quote
Yeah, we'd take it back eventually, but like I said in my first post, it's pretty much guaranteed that everything near the DMZ will have to be retaken. And that's from a military perspective. I'd like to quote one veteran I know that's served there twice, but only if need be.

There are people on these forums that were stationed in South Korea.

Quote
Obviously not. But let's not forget who those soldiers are...or, and I hope you catch my drift, who S. Korean forces might "think" they are. (Sabotage/Spy reference). Still, the majority of them are probably loyal enough, and no, they wont all vanish in an assault, but a vast reduction in number of those on the DMZ is a given.

I'm sorry, but we only have one other frame of reference here - the Gulf Wars.

People sometimes refuse to call them wars.

Only this time, we don't need ten thousand miles worth of logistics backing the defenders up.

Quote
Please don't be fooled by all those failed launchings of their Nodong and Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles. We've run scenarios against them. Not all of them are duds. I'd like to elaborate but for security purposes I can't. Of course, that's kinda weasel-ing out of it XP. Sorry. If I can think of a safe way to explain the point, I'll let you know. Or you can google it. Im sure its there somewhere.

If a dozen missiles spelled the doom of a nation England would have fallen.

Quote
Who knows such a thing? Heck, who even knows if they get Officers to actually make that call. I dunno if they have Command Sergeant Majors or the like, but his desire would hold high up there with, lets say, a Battle Captain (again, if they have those), not to mention they probably have enlisted members at the actual launch console (if so. I know we do).

Well a more appropriate description is this - take our inspection of the Russian launch systems after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Add less maintenance, less skill, and the irrefutable knowledge that some of these people are very acutely aware that they are on the losing side, what do you get?

Don't get me wrong, North Korea attacking would be horrible, but it is in such a horrible logistical situation that it is seriously paralyzed. It can't really fight - just see how much damage it can do.

Offline The OverlordTopic starter

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2009, 10:06:17 PM »

Just as a note here-


I did not post this to become a flaming political argument even if it fits squarely in the political forums; I’ve been part of too much bad energy in this particular forum.

As I said, I’ve been following this, and I’m concerned. I figure draw a line loosely through the Middle East to Southeast Asia, and you’re likely to hit the candidate country where the nuclear weapons are mostly likely to be next fired in anger.

It’s a corner of the world that’s brought us some of the best and most ancient elements of human culture, but also (at least from a Western perspective) a region where life doesn’t seem to have the same value as it does elsewhere.


Could be wrong on that perspective…I just posted it to get opinions here, many of them informative and good.

Offline Zeitgeist

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2009, 10:15:33 PM »
Head to head N. Korea doesn't match well against much of anyone. Britain alone could take 'em. The US? No match.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. China really needs to step up big time.

Offline The OverlordTopic starter

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2009, 10:34:12 PM »

The China equation doesn’t really fit; that being the question of China coming to the military rescue of Kim-Jong.

It comes down to the question of what they could hope to gain versus what could possibly lose, which is literally everything.

We spent decades facing the Iron Curtain with the Iron Triangle, and once the USSR goes kaput, we’re looking across the ideological fence at China.

There was the well-documented spy plane incident c. 2000, but that didn’t last long…9/11 happened and the public finally got what the powers that be already knew: The brewing miasma of disaffected factions leftover from the Cold War had finally turned into a full-fledged shitstorm. Americans and Russians had stepped back from their half-century chess game, and now the pawns were pissed off over being maneuvered and screwed over.


But the fear-mongers in government and business want to ensure we have an opposite number…after all, we HAVE to have an adversary, right? What’s a global superpower to do without one? God forbid we have a military that can crush a half dozen nations simultaneously that has to sit on its ass.


And we’ve all been fucking played with this suicidal paranoia.


Biggest difference between the Cold War and the situation with China; the Russians weren’t manufacturing and shipping everything to Walmart and Bed, Bath, & Beyond. War between the US and China wouldn’t just involve the obvious peril of two of the world’s mostly heavily armed and nuke-toting  nations going at it.

At a time when the world economy is on the brink, a war like this could push the entire globe into the shitter, and I hope the Chinese are also smart enough to realize it.


But let’s face it, even under the Obama administration, nukes could not be used on US troops or interests without an absolutely horrifying reprisal. That’s my concern with Southeast Asia to the Middle East; they might be ancient counties but they’re like 10-year olds that found their father’s gun in the closet. They like to show the world acts of terror, but they don’t understand what true horror is.

Offline Merlyn

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2009, 02:41:23 AM »
China hasn't wanted war.  They've wanted North Korea to back down, for a few years now.

And as for war with China, we would most likely be screwed seeing as now most of our steel comes from China. 
Which is part of the reason for our bad economy, China went form being the biggest importer to the biggest exporter of steel in a few years. 
We used to sell them our steel, now we buy it from them.  No steel=no weaponry.

Besides a war of that scale will most likely not happen for many years.  Especially since most other countries would then fear that if China would defeat the US they would be next, and jump in against China. 

Offline The OverlordTopic starter

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2009, 03:26:59 AM »

You're really missing the point. The US and China are economic and military heavyweights, linked in a manner that I heard someone colorfully and accurately describe as a three-legged race with different size partners.

China can't defeat the United States, but at the price of itself. Nobody will 'win' that war...we'll all lose. That's why it's not going to happen and the next doom & gloom forecaster that says otherwise needs to take a hike and STFU.



Offline Zakharra

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2009, 08:26:13 AM »
China hasn't wanted war.  They've wanted North Korea to back down, for a few years now.

 China could end this tomorrow. They control almost all of N. Korea's oil, energy, supplies and a good chunk of it's food imports. By cutting those off, they'd be able to collapse N. Korea within 1-2 months at the most. N. Korea can not survive without Chinese help. China wants this little dictator to be doing what he is since they can utterly ruin the nation without firing a shot.

Offline HairyHeretic

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Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2009, 08:42:29 AM »
Thats one possibility.

The other possibility is that if China pulls the plug, the seemingly unstable little man in charge over there thinks "I have no more friends. If this is the end, I'm taking all of you with me." and presses every red button he has.

Yes, he'd lose.
Yes, he'd die.

But he would do a LOT of damage before that happened.

Offline Zakharra

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2009, 01:42:56 PM »
 True, but he doesn't seem like the type to back down. He's like a 5 year old child throwing a temper tantrum, but his toys are very dangerous ones. When it comes to it though, will the world stand up to him or let him walk over people again? He's like a mugger that is demanding your purse or he'll shoot you.

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Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2009, 01:49:57 PM »
Purses are replacable.

I'm curious. Would you be so keen to see him confronted if you were living in range of nuclear or chemical attack?

Offline Zakharra

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2009, 01:54:13 PM »
 Yes. Because a man like that will never settle for less and he will keep pushing. Personally, I think he should have been assassinated  long ago. Sane but angery leaders are one thing. Isane ones with access to nuclear weapons and a wilingness to sell to people who will use them is something else.

Offline The OverlordTopic starter

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2009, 02:33:34 PM »
True, but he doesn't seem like the type to back down. He's like a 5 year old child throwing a temper tantrum, but his toys are very dangerous ones. When it comes to it though, will the world stand up to him or let him walk over people again? He's like a mugger that is demanding your purse or he'll shoot you.

To be more accurate, he's a mugger demanding your purse while there's an American and South Korean standing directly behind him...each with the barrel of a shotgun pressed against the back of his skull. Not exactly the most strategically favorable situation to be in.

Based on everything to this point I've seen, the North Korean war effort will get at least partial use of their tunnel network under the DMZ; as I understand they've been doing this for years. The South Koreans find a tunnel built with the aim of putting troops behind the frontline defenders on the DMZ. They find a tunnel or two and demolish them, then NK builds more.

The US strategy as I read it is wholesale decimation of the NK army as it marches on the border. Supposedly the terrain will funnel any large-scale troop movements though lowlands and valleys between mountain peaks and ridges; the US aim is to choke those points with burnt out armor vehicles and corpses.

I also imagine few targets will be off limits; gouging out Pyongyang with massive carpet and strategic bombing strikes will cut the heart out of the North's infrastructure.

No doubt we know exactly where his missile batteries are positioned, and nuclear facilities holding bomb-grade material. Killing the North's ability to even use a nuke is going to obviously be the priority so the war remains conventional.

Based on what's been done in Iraq, a decapitation strike against Kim-Jong and his top brass is likely, if the opportunity presents itself. In Iraq they utterly destroyed Saddam's command and control structure so his army could not coordinate, then they geographically divided the Iraqi map into kill boxes where they took apart the military a piece at a time. Where it comes to direct armor and troops engaging, the famous battle of 73 Easting will be a good example of how NK armor will fare against us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting

I expect the North is going to resort to suicide attacks eventually that will do some real damage, but ultimately their decision to use WMD's is going to decide whether they even have a country to rebuild after the fact. If it went nuclear, we could likely use smaller tactical nukes to destroy the military, but one good sized bomb over Pyongyang would spell sudden death for them. If the nuclear stage came to pass, Western commanders would have to the weigh their tactics and consciences on this.


Speaking of which; I think this has all taken a very dangerous turn-


US, SKorea militaries gird for NKorean provocation


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090528/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

Quote

SEOUL, South Korea – The U.S. and South Korea put their military forces on high alert Thursday after North Korea renounced the truce keeping the peace between the two Koreas since 1953.

The North also accused the U.S. of preparing to attack the isolated communist country in the wake of its second nuclear bomb test, and warned it would retaliate to any hostility with "merciless" and dangerous ferocity.

Seoul moved a 3,500-ton destroyer into waters near the Koreas' disputed western maritime border while smaller, high-speed vessels were keeping guard at the front line, South Korean news reports said. The defense ministry said the U.S. and South Korean militaries would increase surveillance activities.

Pyongyang, meanwhile, positioned artillery guns along the west coast on its side of the border, the Yonhap news agency said. The Joint Chiefs of Staffs in Seoul refused to confirm the reports.

The show of force along the heavily fortified border dividing the two Koreas comes three days after North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test and fired a series of short-range missiles.

The test drew immediate condemnation from world leaders and the U.N. Security Council, where ambassadors were discussing a new resolution to punish Pyongyang. President Barack Obama called it a "blatant violation" of international law.

In response, South Korea said it would join more than 90 nations that have agreed to stop and inspect vessels suspected of transporting weapons of mass destruction.

North Korea called South Korea's participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative a prelude to a naval blockade and a violation of the truce signed to end the three-year war that broke out in Korea in 1950.

On Wednesday Pyongyang renounced the 1953 armistice and the following day warned U.S. forces against advancing into its territory.

"The northward invasion scheme by the U.S. and the South Korean puppet regime has exceeded the alarming level," the North's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. "A minor accidental skirmish can lead to a nuclear war."

The U.S., which has 28,500 troops in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan, has denied it is planning military action. But U.S. and South Korean troops were placed on their highest alert level for more than two years.

The South Korea-U.S. combined forces command rates its surveillance alert on a scale to 5, with 1 being the highest level. On Thursday, the level was raised from 3 to 2, the second-highest level, South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae said. He said the last time the alert level was that high was in 2006, when the North conducted its first nuclear test.

Won said both militaries were raising their surveillance activities, although he would not explain what that meant. South Korean media reported that the higher alert would involve increased monitoring of North Korea using satellites and navy ships.

The U.N. Command on Korea said it would continue to observe the armistice, saying it "remains in force and is binding on all signatories, including North Korea."

North Korea has repudiated the armistice several times before, most recently in 2003 and 2006.

South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young accused the North of "seriously distorting" the decision to join in the initiative.

Seoul has said its military would "respond sternly" to any North Korean provocation, and that it would be able to contain the North with the help of U.S. troops.

The South Korean military has dispatched "personnel and equipment deployment" along its land and sea borders, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said. He spoke on condition of anonymity citing department policy.

He said there has been no particular movement of North Korean troops in border areas.

The two Koreas technically remain at war because they signed a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953. However, North disputes the U.N.-drawn maritime border off their west coast, and used that dispute to provoke deadly naval skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

South Korea's mass-circulation JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said more anti-air missiles and artillery were dispatched to military bases on islands near the disputed western sea border with North Korea.

Yonhap said the destroyer has artillery guns, anti-ship guided missiles, ship-to-air missiles and torpedoes. Air force fighters are were on standby, the report said.

North Korea's West Sea fleet has 13 submarines and more than 360 vessels, Yonhap said.

The recent flurry of belligerence could reflect an effort by 67-year-old leader Kim Jong Il to boost his standing among his impoverished people.

It was also seen as a test of Obama's new administration, and came as two Americans, journalists Euna Lee and Laura Ling, remained in custody in Pyongyang accused of illegal entry and "hostile acts." They face trial in Pyongyang next week.

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said any new Security Council resolution must be stronger than the one issued after the North's first atomic test in October 2006, and contain sanctions.

A Russian Foreign Ministry official said Moscow did not want to see Pyongyang further isolated. Andrei Nesterenko said Russia opposed sanctions but did not object to a U.N. resolution.

Hong Hyun-ik, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute security think tank, said sanctions would not be effective unless China — North Korea's traditional ally — implemented them.

"Kim Jong Il must be scoffing" at the talk of sanctions, he said. "He knows the world will forget about any sanctions in the end."







Offline GS3XXAristo

Re: North Korea threatens to commit suicide
« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2009, 03:17:07 PM »
Just in case anyone didn't know, I'mma offer a quick comparision of Chinese and American nuclear capabilities:

Number of Nukes China has (Newsweek source): Estimated 400
Number of Nukes America has (same source):  Estimated 9,500
Number of Nukes Russia has (at least whats accounted for, same source): Estimated 15,100

Between China and America, nuclear delivery capabilities fall in favor of American Naval and Aerial forces (China's navy is extremely modern, but they don't have "blue water" capabilities just yet.

That stuff above is just some info I knew about. I honestly don't think any country is at that much of a nuclear advantage (ponders throwing in the fact that Israel has an estimated 80 nukes and France has 400, though I doubt they could manage to even use them effectively XP).

Quote
No doubt we know exactly where his missile batteries are positioned, and nuclear facilities holding bomb-grade material. Killing the North's ability to even use a nuke is going to obviously be the priority so the war remains conventional.

Like I said before, his ballistic missiles with their chemical payloads is gonna be problematic. Especially on mobile launchers.

Quote
Where it comes to direct armor and troops engaging, the famous battle of 73 Easting will be a good example of how NK armor will fare against us.

That battle took place in the flat, featureless desert. Yeah, weather was bad, but the article said the tracking systems (night vision, etc.) played a big role in our smackdown of their forces. Fighting with NK armor, however, takes place in Korean terrain. Much different.

Thanks for posting that news link though. I'd been in the field searching for reliable info all day on my phone, and usually ended up running into UK news sources which allow random people to post commentary, stating (no suprise) how evil the U.S. is XP. My gf's mom started asking if they're gonna deploy me sooner because of that mess.

Maybe Kim Jung Il, the internet expert he claims he is (wiki that), will just give it all up soon, and continue to sedate himself with Hennessey and american porn.