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Author Topic: Demise of the Euro?  (Read 1445 times)

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Offline ZeitgeistTopic starter

Demise of the Euro?
« on: November 29, 2011, 06:52:19 PM »
More and more news is coming out about the possible demise of the Euro and the Eurozone.

Businesses plan for possible end of euro

My post might actually belong in Help! Ask/Suggest Anything. I'm not necessarily looking to debate the reasons behind the demise or even the possibility of it.

My worry is, I've already bought tickets for a trip to Spain in April next year. What happens if the Euro does fail? Best case scenario I exchange my spending money into whatever Spain would be offering as a currency?

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2011, 07:16:47 PM »
I know that there will be no SAFE spots from the fallout of a currency that big. It will splatter everyone.

Offline ZeitgeistTopic starter

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2011, 07:18:57 PM »
Only after I posted this did I feel rather sheepish at my selfishness. Of course many people would fall on to hard times, and here I'm worried about my vacation  :-[

Offline JackWhite

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2011, 07:20:25 PM »
I guess worrying about something like that will be a small problem. You can exchange in the Spanish currency if the euro would fall.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2011, 08:53:03 PM »
I guess worrying about something like that will be a small problem. You can exchange in the Spanish currency if the euro would fall.

What currency? Spain operates on the Euro. I lived there for two years.

Offline Vekseid

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2011, 09:39:05 PM »
More and more news is coming out about the possible demise of the Euro and the Eurozone.

Businesses plan for possible end of euro

My post might actually belong in Help! Ask/Suggest Anything. I'm not necessarily looking to debate the reasons behind the demise or even the possibility of it.

My worry is, I've already bought tickets for a trip to Spain in April next year. What happens if the Euro does fail? Best case scenario I exchange my spending money into whatever Spain would be offering as a currency?

Well, the worst case scenario is Spain announces an immediate referendum on a return to the peseto, which gets affirmed, stating a return to the peseto once the mints can return enough currency into the economy. I would be impressed if they could do so within a year, much less six months, but even then, currencies will still be used in the interim, possibly dollars if not euros.

Offline Samael

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Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2011, 09:42:18 PM »
The Euro will not fall anytime soon.
There's a lot of panic going around, nearly most of it without an actual ground to stand upon, and while things will get harder, I don't think we're going to lose the currency.
Although this will hopefully be a wake up call for our head honchos here, because they are driving the EU expansion too fast forward, admitting countries that cannot stand up to the rules that are in place to keep things steady and balanced. It makes me shake my head.

Everyone seems to understand that we need to have things settled first after each admittance, before we should expand more, but they are like greedy children. Right now we can't deal with it, and the fall of Greece and Italy plainly shows what went wrong.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2011, 10:03:26 PM »
Well, the worst case scenario is Spain announces an immediate referendum on a return to the peseto, which gets affirmed, stating a return to the peseto once the mints can return enough currency into the economy. I would be impressed if they could do so within a year, much less six months, but even then, currencies will still be used in the interim, possibly dollars if not euros.

The Euro is one of the best things that happened to Spain. I lived in Rota Spain for 2 years. The locals repeatedly and continually told us that. You had BLOCKS of growth as one of the things that folks had to do was pull the peseta out from under their mattresses and start using them. Buildings literally popped up overnight.

Offline ZeitgeistTopic starter

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2011, 10:36:59 PM »
Well, the worst case scenario is Spain announces an immediate referendum on a return to the peseto, which gets affirmed, stating a return to the peseto once the mints can return enough currency into the economy. I would be impressed if they could do so within a year, much less six months, but even then, currencies will still be used in the interim, possibly dollars if not euros.

Thanks Vek. Interesting.

Heck I might even make out better with the exchange rate, who knows. Could go either way I suppose.

Offline Wajin

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2011, 03:23:58 AM »
I'm sort of worried about it too, the danish krone is tied to the euro meaning that if the euro falls we fall with them,
unless we get a last minute chance to escape.
But yeah, I wouldn't count on the fall of the euro, not with the technocrat governments in Italy and Greece.
Yet the news that Moodys might downgrade the Euro-zone are worrying me quite a lot.

Offline Lilias

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2011, 03:46:02 AM »
The euro is not likely to fall during the crisis. The EU may decide to retire it once things are more balanced again, but that would be a gradual, supported thing. Dropping out of the eurozone would be disastrous for Spain (or any other country): the cost of minting new 'old' currency, plus the ensuing devaluation, would finish off an already tottering economy and start a domino effect for other countries. That's why there was such effort to make sure Greece wouldn't default. We're still not out of the woods, mind you, but disbanding the eurozone would be suicidal under the circumstances.

Offline Silk

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2011, 04:50:42 AM »
*Is proud to have voted against the euro here in the uk* [/Pride]

But I really can't see the euro falling, it may lose a few spinal blocks, but losing the ability to walk/run doesn't stop it's life expectancy, just mobility issues, if that anology makes sense.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2011, 08:48:24 PM »
I don't think we're going to see a wholesale collapse of the euro, forcing all the participant countries back to their old currencies. Germany, France and most of the Eurozone members in northern and central Europe really are not going to quit. And it would be kind of surprsiring if Greece broke out in the next two months: that's what they want to avoid at all costs and back to the wall they will avoid it. But in the long run Greece, Italy and perhaps one or two more are likely to have to step out and restore their old currencies. They have lost a huge amount of credibility, and stand to lose even more, both with the other EU countries and with banks, companies, and their own citizens. They're in for a long "bathe of steel", years of austerity and tough dictates, but if they have to keep marching in step with the levels of interest rates, currency values, pricing and so on of Germany and the rest, they would near break apart.

There is NO way Greece or Portugal can compete with Germany, France or the Netherlands in industrial level, ability to make export money, public health facilities and schools, or the reliability of their tax collection. Had they kept their own currencies, they would not have landed in this situation. With the euro in place, they could ride high on the strength and credit ratings of Germany and the rest, borrow lots of money and attract banks and lenders who, in turn, goaded everyone into taking up big loans out of the blue. And it must have been obvious to many people in the EU bureacracy and political class that this was the game being played, only it wasn't something either part wanted to say aloud.

Now with governments changing every one or two years and the cabinet and national bank having handed in their gears to the ECB, there was really no accountability. You can't win an election by telling people that the future looming around the corner is very dark and that they have to bury their dreams, stop loaning money and reset their loans, sell off property, break off education for their kids and work harder for ten years. And if the basic deals you've made with your family (the EU/the Eurozone) mean you have very limited tools to do anything even if people are aware, then you won't even bring up the questions.

The euro, as currency, was a political project at heart: the motives were political not economic, and there has been a lot of dishonesty, smoothing or glossing about this. It still is political of course, but it will no longer be as feasible to try to pretend otherwise.

The currency will survive in one form or other I think, but it will have to be with some tighter control - which will really make it plain that there are issues of sovereignty and accountability in joining it. And some countries are likely to have to leave or avoid joining, because they just don't have the economic strength needed.

State default? Well, Greece is already being kept on the books by suspended animation - by massive lending from the north and promises of a debt write-down. If 50 or 70% of the state debt is written off, and the country is kept going by influx of money given by Germany, the IMF and others, then it is effectively a state default in everything but name. Italy, Spain and others could well land in the same situation within the next year.


Sweden held a referendum on the euro in 2003. The entire establishment was for it - most major newspapers, all the larger political parties, the banks, the corporate sphere, many unions, most academic economists. The pro-euro side was massively superior in funding and in access to the media for their take on things, and tried to sell it as a simple wallet reform - "hey, now you won't need to change money when you go abroad! ain't that cool?" and "it's in the stars anyway, don't be against progress, old hat". But they never really managed to get the upper hand in reaching ordinary people, or in getting the debate intiative. The no campaign, which recognized that the issue was about sovereignty and about what might happen in a crisis (a dimension completely ignored by the yes side, which painted the euro as an unsinkable ship and a magic wand that would remove the risk of recessions or mass unemployment forever), was on top all through in opinion polls and finally won by a crushing near 60%. Any attempt to revive the issue since then has been mostly stillborn, though senior politicians have tried - only a few weeks back, two earlier PMs appeared in interviews where they claimed the euro was the only way. A singularly bad-timed move by those guys!
« Last Edit: November 30, 2011, 09:03:27 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2011, 09:07:20 PM »
Most of what I recall about Greece from my time in Crete (about 75 days) was that the houses weren't taxed if they weren't 'complete'. So there was a lot of houses with rebar sticking out of them somewhere. Greece will get a LOT of support, because if one country in that situation fails, Italy and Spain will be close behind. Too many people in too many places have spent a LOT of political capital on the Euro.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2011, 09:30:50 PM »
Most of what I recall about Greece from my time in Crete (about 75 days) was that the houses weren't taxed if they weren't 'complete'. So there was a lot of houses with rebar sticking out of them somewhere. Greece will get a LOT of support, because if one country in that situation fails, Italy and Spain will be close behind. Too many people in too many places have spent a LOT of political capital on the Euro.

Too true!

A friend of mine told me in 2004, referring to the European Union expanding eastwards: "The EU has been pumping lots of dough into southern Europe from the 80s to the present, in that way propping up democracy, industrialization, education and better living conditions. But there's no way they can repeat it and bribe ten Eastern European countries to make them appear comfortable and sitting on something like a Western European level."

Though it wasn't directly about the  euro  - only a few of those countries have joined yet, though I think all have an obligation clause that they will join the common currency when their economy is robust enough - he summed up the paradox of the EU trying to do politics by pumping money and pulling new members in. Greece, Spain and Portugal which joined in the eighties had recently shaken off semi-fascist junta regimes. In the north, they recognized that those states needed assistance and a steady pull to improve their economies, or they might fall back into new political repression. Dictatorship is often helped along by unemployment and misery, that's something so many Europeans know in their bones. So there was a good deal of acceptance and good will. But witrh an even bigger batch of countries who had recently fought off dictatorship, and who had truly backward economies and run-down industry most of them, there was no way you could do it again - but if you wanted them in you couldn't say openly that they would be treated a bit like second-rate members or left to fend for themselves.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2011, 09:36:15 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Vekseid

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2011, 11:54:27 PM »
The Euro is one of the best things that happened to Spain. I lived in Rota Spain for 2 years. The locals repeatedly and continually told us that. You had BLOCKS of growth as one of the things that folks had to do was pull the peseta out from under their mattresses and start using them. Buildings literally popped up overnight.

That isn't a reflection of the Euro's advantages, but rather poor currency policy on the part of the peseto. Iceland, Sweden, and the UK are damned glad they aren't tied to the Euro right now. Given the deflationary pressure Spain is under regarding the Euro at the moment, the same thing would happen moving back to the peseto. There are better solutions for encouraging liquidity than changing currencies.

Thanks Vek. Interesting.

Heck I might even make out better with the exchange rate, who knows. Could go either way I suppose.

Portugal and Spain also have the ability to go to a unified currency with more ability to get use out of it than they did the Euro. Fairly mutually intelligible language, shared border, etc.

But basically, if the Euro were to begin to dissolve, you'll see countries choosing to leave it first, and it won't be some silent no-one-sees it coming thing. There may be a domino effect, which is obviously something widely feared (see: posts above regarding Greece being propped up) but even that is going to take time. These things move at the speed of bureaucracy, after all.

There is the off chance that the people running the Eurozone may get a collective clue that they are completely fucking things up, and turn it in the right direction before the above is basically forced to happen.

I'm sort of worried about it too, the danish krone is tied to the euro meaning that if the euro falls we fall with them,
unless we get a last minute chance to escape.
But yeah, I wouldn't count on the fall of the euro, not with the technocrat governments in Italy and Greece.
Yet the news that Moodys might downgrade the Euro-zone are worrying me quite a lot.

No. You've got it better than most.

In case of emergency, the Krone gets unpegged and allowed to float.  This is a simple legislative decision that can take effect immediately. For this, it's a very convenient safe-haven. If nothing happens to the Euro, Danish money isn't worth any less. If the Euro goes to pot, then Danish money can be floated and little value, if any, is lost.

For this reason, it's doing very, very well in terms of its debt yields.

Offline OldSchoolGamer

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2011, 12:02:38 AM »
The Euro is doomed.

This really isn't the fault of Europeans--at least, any more than it is anyone else's fault.

To make a long story semi-short, the global financial system is predicated on the notion that we will have eternal economic growth of, oh, 3 to 5% per year (more in some areas like China, a little less in the mature economies of Western Europe).  But common sense says that infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet.  We are not going to continue to obtain ever-increasing amounts of coal, oil, natural gas, iron, arable land, aluminum, gold, uranium, etc. etc., etc. and turn them into larger and larger piles of food, cars, houses and consumer goods.  We've maxed out.  We had the chance to continue growth by colonizing space, but we passed that up.

So now we've got tens of trillions of dollars of financial "bets" made under the eternal-growth assumption that are going to be welshed on, one way or another, over the next decade or more.   And those are just the direct bets.  There are also dozens to potentially hundreds of trillions of dollars in side bets made on the original bets (known as "derivatives") that are likewise going to be losers.

Thus far, the response of central banks has been to print more money and give out loans to be paid back at some unknown, unforeseeable time in the future when, presumably, the laws of physics will no longer apply and we can magically pull millions of tons/barrels/hectares of oil, coal, gold, fresh water, arable land and uranium out of our collective ass on an ongoing basis to resume permanent growth.  Given that the laws of physics have been rather unchanging for billions of years, I'd say the chances of them changing by the time all these one, two, five, and ten year notes mature and need to be rolled over is somewhere between slim and none, and Slim just left town.

Online Dashenka

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2011, 04:00:50 AM »
The Euro is not doomed.

If the Euro collapses, the European economy will collapse which means the entire world economy will tumble along with it. It's all pretty bleak...


Luckily there is countries like China and Russia, who are willing to invest in the backwater economy's of Europe (and soon America) to keep you all afloat (and ourselves of course)


Also to those who are saying that the Euro should never have happened and that you would be better off with your own currency, look at what the Euro has brought you and what would have happened if countries like Italy or Spain or whatever still had their currency. You get massive numbers on banknotes.

 The hassle it takes to change your money is terrible, plus everytime you change it, you loose a bit. For big companies constantly trading with foreign companies they'd have to pay that transfer tax every time they do business and those numbers are big bigger than a full tank of fuel. I think the gain in that alone by having 1 currency is worth billions of Euro's.

Also to Europe and America... stop building an economy on money that isn't there. 8 Billion Euro's to Greece. Where does that come from? The billions of dollars to US is spending on useless stuff like a rocket defense system in Eastern Europe. Stop wasting money that doesn't even exist. That's what caused the whole crisis two years ago and to be doing exactly the same thing is just sheer incompetence.

Russia might not be the best place when it comes down to politics but at least our politicians have a brain and a calculator and a backbone to say no to stupid ideas like invading Libya which has cost a shit load of money. For the first time in quite some time, I'm actually happy to be living in Russia and to be able to earn more money than I'm spending on the bare necessities.

Offline OldSchoolGamer

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2011, 11:14:24 PM »
The Euro is not doomed.

If the Euro collapses, the European economy will collapse which means the entire world economy will tumble along with it. It's all pretty bleak...


Luckily there is countries like China and Russia, who are willing to invest in the backwater economy's of Europe (and soon America) to keep you all afloat (and ourselves of course)

Don't worry...the Euro will in fact collapse...along with the rest of the global financial system.  There's not enough cheap energy to keep it going.

China is going to crash, too.  They've bet the proverbial farm on unlimited, eternal growth.  They're all-in.  To the point of building cities in the middle of the desert where no one lives, just to keep people employed and keep growth going and going.  Trouble is, all that growth takes fossil fuel.

As for Russia, I'd say it's better situated...though not by much.  It, too, is a fossil fuel dependent society, with an ever-decreasing ratio of workers to old people.  I'd say some of the hinterlands of Russia have a good chance of riding this out and localizing food production.

Offline Vekseid

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2011, 12:58:36 AM »
OldSchoolGamer, rather than try to derail economic threads with doom and gloom scenarios, start one of your own.

The Euro is not doomed.

If the Euro collapses, the European economy will collapse which means the entire world economy will tumble along with it. It's all pretty bleak...

The Euro's collapse would mean countries moving back to their own currency. It would be quite an upset, but it wouldn't happen overnight and it wouldn't take Europe with it, much less the world. The only country that would lose, and lose hard, in such a scenario is Germany.

Quote
Luckily there is countries like China and Russia, who are willing to invest in the backwater economy's of Europe (and soon America) to keep you all afloat (and ourselves of course)

Running a current account surplus means you're taking notes of uncertain future value in exchange for fewer resources now. Eventually, things end up having to move the other way (e.g. Warren Buffet's line, 'unsustainable processes will eventually stop'). But even Russia and China have small surpluses relative to the size of the economies you claim they can 'save'. Ultimately, recovery in America and Europe has to be internally driven.

Quote
Also to those who are saying that the Euro should never have happened and that you would be better off with your own currency, look at what the Euro has brought you and what would have happened if countries like Italy or Spain or whatever still had their currency. You get massive numbers on banknotes.

From Callie's description, Spain's problem with the peseto was just the opposite - there was not enough money in circulation to encourage spending.

The PIIGS crises exists in part -because- the Euro was a horrible idea. People in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece need jobs. They are competing, directly, with Germans for those jobs. But in order to get those jobs, they need to move to Germany, and also speak German.

Whereas, if there's a hiring boom in Minnesota, someone from California has no language barrier preventing them from doing so. They're free to move anywhere in the country.


Quote
The hassle it takes to change your money is terrible, plus everytime you change it, you loose a bit. For big companies constantly trading with foreign companies they'd have to pay that transfer tax every time they do business and those numbers are big bigger than a full tank of fuel. I think the gain in that alone by having 1 currency is worth billions of Euro's.

Right now it's only worth billions to Germany, as the entire rest of the Eurozone is incapable of competing with it.

Quote
Also to Europe and America... stop building an economy on money that isn't there. 8 Billion Euro's to Greece. Where does that come from? The billions of dollars to US is spending on useless stuff like a rocket defense system in Eastern Europe. Stop wasting money that doesn't even exist. That's what caused the whole crisis two years ago and to be doing exactly the same thing is just sheer incompetence.

I think you misunderstand the concept of fiat currency >_>

Looking at interest rates, people are begging the US government to take their money and do something vaguely half-productive with it right now. The same goes for a lot of non-Eurozone countries, actually.

Quote
Russia might not be the best place when it comes down to politics but at least our politicians have a brain and a calculator and a backbone to say no to stupid ideas like invading Libya which has cost a shit load of money. For the first time in quite some time, I'm actually happy to be living in Russia and to be able to earn more money than I'm spending on the bare necessities.

There was no invasion of Libya, as that would imply US, UK or French forces actually occupying territory. It was an intervention. It cost the US about a billion, and the UK 2-3 times that. It remains to be seen how far it will slip into a theocracy, however. Though they do seem susceptible to international opinion on that front, which is better than Gaddafi for certain.

Online Dashenka

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2011, 02:36:17 AM »
I think more countries than Germany will suffer Veks. I know the Netherlands is a relatively small part of the European economy but it used to be one of the strongest as well. When it comes down to the important economy's which are suffering from the whole EURO crisis I think they are up there as well, along with Germany. I agree that the rest of the Eurozone is worth nothing compared to Germany.

Also I agree that recovery should come from the inside but Russia and China are investing in companies in Europe and maybe America too, to create jobs there and profits for themselves. OldSchoolGamer... I think Al Gore got to you a little too much. The fact that China and Russia too are still thriving on fossil fuels is because there is so much of it. Unlike what some 'experts' say, there is enough oil and gas and other stuff left in Siberia, Kazakhstan and parts of China to at least fuel these two countries for another decade. Al Gore's inconvenient truth is nothing more than a big fat lie. But that aside.

In the end, I think the Euro will survive, Europe willl HAVE to change a lot of things in their political systems. The reason they got the Euro is because they wanted to be stronger in the world but exactly as Veks said, one currency with a lot of different languages will go bad. So there will have to be one language and one government and it's a matter of time before that happens.

Also, I would call Libya an invasion. But whatever it was, it's billions of dollars completely wasted. Another question about this topic... why Libya and not Syria? It's all personal gains as the US still had a history with Khadaffi, as had Europe. Syria on the other hand, nobody cares. Same with Palestine and all that. You either help out everybody, or stay the F out. Same with that rocket shield, either involve Russia as we cover half the globe and changes are that rockets from Iran to the US will go over Russia, or get the F off. Should America vote a Republican government again, I can see a new Cold War with America isolating itself again.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2011, 08:15:15 AM »

Also, I would call Libya an invasion. But whatever it was, it's billions of dollars completely wasted. Another question about this topic... why Libya and not Syria? It's all personal gains as the US still had a history with Khadaffi, as had Europe. Syria on the other hand, nobody cares. Same with Palestine and all that. You either help out everybody, or stay the F out. Same with that rocket shield, either involve Russia as we cover half the globe and changes are that rockets from Iran to the US will go over Russia, or get the F off. Should America vote a Republican government again, I can see a new Cold War with America isolating itself again.

No.. I very much doubt a corporate dominated party, and both our primary parties are bought and sold daily by their corporate sponsors, and the Republicans have long sold their loyalty to the corporations; there will be no isolation of America. Not on the marketplace level anyway. Bad enough we don't have the spine anymore to face opposing tariffs with tariffs of our own.

That was one of the problems we've had with several markets for a LONG time. Most pointedly Japan. Can you imagine what our farmers could do with their food market?

Offline Vekseid

Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2011, 11:05:27 AM »
I think more countries than Germany will suffer Veks. I know the Netherlands is a relatively small part of the European economy but it used to be one of the strongest as well. When it comes down to the important economy's which are suffering from the whole EURO crisis I think they are up there as well, along with Germany. I agree that the rest of the Eurozone is worth nothing compared to Germany.

It's not worth nothing. It's just that a compounding factor of the Euro crisis is that countries that don't speak German are unable to revalue their currency to compete with Germany. The ability to make a PPP adjustment is an important one for a country's economic health. The main crisis countries can't do that.

Quote
Also I agree that recovery should come from the inside but Russia and China are investing in companies in Europe and maybe America too, to create jobs there and profits for themselves. OldSchoolGamer... I think Al Gore got to you a little too much. The fact that China and Russia too are still thriving on fossil fuels is because there is so much of it. Unlike what some 'experts' say, there is enough oil and gas and other stuff left in Siberia, Kazakhstan and parts of China to at least fuel these two countries for another decade. Al Gore's inconvenient truth is nothing more than a big fat lie. But that aside.

Enough, seriously. He drags too many threads onto the same tangent, if you want to take up that debate with him, go to another thread.

Quote
In the end, I think the Euro will survive, Europe willl HAVE to change a lot of things in their political systems. The reason they got the Euro is because they wanted to be stronger in the world but exactly as Veks said, one currency with a lot of different languages will go bad. So there will have to be one language and one government and it's a matter of time before that happens.

I think we'll see a pan-Iberian and a pan-Anglican currency long before Italy, Germany, or France give up their languages.

Quote
Also, I would call Libya an invasion. But whatever it was, it's billions of dollars completely wasted. Another question about this topic... why Libya and not Syria? It's all personal gains as the US still had a history with Khadaffi, as had Europe. Syria on the other hand, nobody cares. Same with Palestine and all that. You either help out everybody, or stay the F out. Same with that rocket shield, either involve Russia as we cover half the globe and changes are that rockets from Iran to the US will go over Russia, or get the F off. Should America vote a Republican government again, I can see a new Cold War with America isolating itself again.

Compared to Iraq? Afghanistan?

And probably because the UK and France thought it would be a cheap PR stunt. Syria has a much larger military and would need Israel's cooperation.

Regardless, money spent on military issues is off-topic.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Demise of the Euro?
« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2011, 07:22:16 PM »
Quote from: Dashenka
In the end, I think the Euro will survive, Europe willl HAVE to change a lot of things in their political systems. The reason they got the Euro is because they wanted to be stronger in the world but exactly as Veks said, one currency with a lot of different languages will go bad. So there will have to be one language and one government and it's a matter of time before that happens.


I don't see Germans, Poles, Italians or even Finns and Swedes giving up their own languages any time soon. Not as everyday/literary/media languages, neither as official vehicles, as the channels of government, lawmaking and commerce. If anything, European interaction in the last thirty years and the internet have made people *more* aware of their own languages and more eager to insist on having them in use - while keeping one or two second languages, English, French or others, as a quick line to use personally for international deals. And what chance is there to have people accept let's say German as the premier Euro language? That's simply not happpening, it would be a no-go as long as Nazism and WW2 remain key parts of European historical experience. For similar reasons, Russian would be just as impossible, if anyone was thinking of that. Note: I'm not saying today's Germans or Russians are birthmarked by previous dictatorships, but the memory of their countries striving for domination through war and erm, tyranny rules their languages out as any kind of "single language" of the continent. English or French probably wouldn't be much better. Diversity is strength, in this sense.

Still, it's now got to a point where some sort of fiscal union - euro taxes, levied and determined by the EU (the European Commission, to be precise) - seems likely down the line. The idea has been brewing for years. It would take some changes to the present EU treaties, even if it only involves the euro countries. And "euro-wide taxes" and strict budget rules would make the national governments buck down under rules prescribed by Brussels. To some extent this has already been going on in some countries, but it's been self-imposed, or partly dictated by the national bank. A set of taxes and budget rules imposed on much of the continent. together with attempts to just austerize us out of the bad times would be very tough on many people. Lots of folks, not just in Greece and Italy, would feel they had been disenfranchised and let down both by the EU and by their governments, while the banks were being protected. Kind of like what's been happening stateside since 2008, but both continents would be pulled down even further than now because there would be no real dynamic.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2011, 07:31:31 PM by gaggedLouise »