Trump's Second Term

[Ollumhammersong]

Ya, speaking as a Canadian. This is going to colour Canada's perception of the US for years. Most Canadian we're already on the fence about supporting the US, but this just coloured the gen x and millenials against the idea of being friendly towards the US for years to come. We helped the US fight in Korea, we helped in Afghanistan, and this is how we're repayed. I will likely never buy so much as a bottle of bourbon again for at least the next few decades, and avoid anything else with the 'made in America' tag. I'd rather buy Chinese right now then help an ungrateful ally.

I wish no ill will towards the US people, but Fuck the United States. The only good thing about this whole tariff shitshow is it's caused a huge swell of support for buying local, started a political discussion about removing internal trade barriers between the provinces and making us realize that we are too tied to one country for our trade. 

I can only hope Ottawa listens to what many of us are demanding and shut off all energy and oil flowing south of the border, and let the  northern US states go dark. let's see what happens then.

[Keelan]

Ya, speaking as a Canadian. This is going to colour Canada's perception of the US for years. Most Canadian we're already on the fence about supporting the US, but this just coloured the gen x and millenials against the idea of being friendly towards the US for years to come. We helped the US fight in Korea, we helped in Afghanistan, and this is how we're repayed. I will likely never buy so much as a bottle of bourbon again for at least the next few decades, and avoid anything else with the 'made in America' tag. I'd rather buy Chinese right now then help an ungrateful ally.

I wish no ill will towards the US people, but Fuck the United States. The only good thing about this whole tariff shitshow is it's caused a huge swell of support for buying local, started a political discussion about removing internal trade barriers between the provinces and making us realize that we are too tied to one country for our trade.

I can only hope Ottawa listens to what many of us are demanding and shut off all energy and oil flowing south of the border, and let the  northern US states go dark. let's see what happens then.

Considering the real implications of the demanded proposal, I don't think you can make both of the bolded statements and have them be true.

[Ollumhammersong]

Absolutely I can, and yes they can both be true. I don't wish any ill fortune on the US people. But that doesn't mean I want Canada to roll over and get bullied. The fact US citizens will be caught in rhat crossfire sucks, and I'm sorry for it. But as polite as we are, we don't take well to being dictated too. 

Most Canadians didn't want things to get to this point, where the possibility of cutting off energy exports is even on the table. But many of us also think that if shutting off power is how to best send that message that we won't fuck around, then so be it. And I'm hardly alone in that feeling. It's gaining alot of steam up Herr.

No one wants to have to do this, but the best way to deal with a bully is to punch back. 

[Sofia Grace]

Welp, now the tariffs are paused for thirty days. 

I think this dude is pretty much just trying to fry all of our nervous systems through sheer stress and conflict, but that's just me. 


Trump pauses tariffs on Canada imports for 30 days after doing the same for Mexico

[Lilias]

Latest update of the Ad Fontes media bias chart is here, so you can check the reliability of your news outlets.

[Cosmo_ac]

Welp, now the tariffs are paused for thirty days.

I think this dude is pretty much just trying to fry all of our nervous systems through sheer stress and conflict, but that's just me.


Trump pauses tariffs on Canada imports for 30 days after doing the same for Mexico

One theory I've heard, which has at least a bit of traction, is that this is also Trumps way of manipulating the stock market.  He claims to be preparing tariffs, the stocks have dropped, wealthy investors (many who are his friends) buy lowered stocks.  He reverses the decision in short order, and the stocks rise.

[Sofia Grace]

One theory I've heard, which has at least a bit of traction, is that this is also Trumps way of manipulating the stock market.  He claims to be preparing tariffs, the stocks have dropped, wealthy investors (many who are his friends) buy lowered stocks.  He reverses the decision in short order, and the stocks rise.

That would be on brand, yeah. 

[Oniya]

I can see the insider trading angle.  One particular aspect makes me want to beat the local Trump voters like a dirty rug:  Trump campaigned on this whole tariff concept, and now he's saying that Americans may 'feel pain' from the situation.

Yeah, I don't even have an Econ degree, and I could have told him that.

[Ollumhammersong]

After reading over what our PM said about Canada's side of this 'deal' to avoid tariffs, i'm actually laughing my ass off. This is brilliant. 

We avoid tariffs and just do what we were going to do anyway, Trudeau is just letting Trump claim is as a personal victory. and we just have to give someone the title of 'fentynal Czar'. Not sure why American's keep wanting to appoint 'Czars' to things, but sure why not. 

This was published back at the end of last year as the proposal for this year's border security budget and goals All Trudeau really did was let Trump put his name on it, but Everything the PM just promised in exchange for avoiding tariffs, we were going to do anyway in the new budget.

And 99.5% of American's aren't going to ever know their president was duped. Either that or Trump knows what we're doing and he's just assuming most American's wont bother to do their own research either. 

[Sofia Grace]

After reading over what our PM said about Canada's side of this 'deal' to avoid tariffs, i'm actually laughing my ass off. This is brilliant.

We avoid tariffs and just do what we were going to do anyway, Trudeau is just letting Trump claim is as a personal victory. and we just have to give someone the title of 'fentynal Czar'. Not sure why American's keep wanting to appoint 'Czars' to things, but sure why not.

This was published back at the end of last year as the proposal for this year's border security budget and goals All Trudeau really did was let Trump put his name on it, but Everything the PM just promised in exchange for avoiding tariffs, we were going to do anyway in the new budget.

And 99.5% of American's aren't going to ever know their president was duped. Either that or Trump knows what we're doing and he's just assuming most American's wont bother to do their own research either.

Trudeau's out here playing chess while Trump's playing checkers

[Cosmo_ac]

After reading over what our PM said about Canada's side of this 'deal' to avoid tariffs, i'm actually laughing my ass off. This is brilliant.

We avoid tariffs and just do what we were going to do anyway, Trudeau is just letting Trump claim is as a personal victory. and we just have to give someone the title of 'fentynal Czar'. Not sure why American's keep wanting to appoint 'Czars' to things, but sure why not.

This was published back at the end of last year as the proposal for this year's border security budget and goals All Trudeau really did was let Trump put his name on it, but Everything the PM just promised in exchange for avoiding tariffs, we were going to do anyway in the new budget.

And 99.5% of American's aren't going to ever know their president was duped. Either that or Trump knows what we're doing and he's just assuming most American's wont bother to do their own research either.

You're seriously underestimating a lot of Americans.  While I admit, it still boggles my mind that Trump won, a lot more of them then you realize know he's an idtiot, and know that this isn't the "win" Trump and his followers claim it is.

[Al Terego]

All I hear is Trump this, Trump that...

Can anyone please help this confused Canuck understand where are the lauded American "checks and balances"?

[Sofia Grace]

From where I'm sitting there's been crickets from both checks and balances. >_>

[Alastoryevich]

All I hear is Trump this, Trump that...

Can anyone please help this confused Canuck understand where are the lauded American "checks and balances"?

They were fired for being woke, I'm afraid.

[Aiden]

Didn't you hear? The Checks and Balances were replaced with the Thoughts and Prayers. 

We will need that once food prices spike and people who work (or no longer) work in the impacted industries. 


I am curious about what those states in the south will do now that Canada vows not to smell American whiskey. Taking such a loss, who will by your stuff now?  


What happened 

• Trump waved his tiny mushroom dick, demanding attention 
• Mexico and Canada - bet
• Canada pulls American Liquor off shelves (Net loss to the US, approx. 900 million) 
• Mexico already sent troops to the border, placates Trump 
• The lasting impact of deporting everyone who picks, makes your food, builds your homes, and cares for your children will be felt for years (Someone didn't read/watch Fight Club) 
• USA gains nothing
• USA looks like idiots

How it is reported 

• TRUMP TAKES WAR ON UNFAIR TRADE AGREEMENT HE MADE IN 2018 
• No, wait, Trump will save us. 
• Canada and Mexico concede nothing, but it looks like a win for the good old nazi republican party 
• Gets blown in a press conference from his DEI cabinet hires (Ironic) 
• Trump is handed a printout of an article that he has a mighty penis, and Canada and Mexico agree. 
• Thank you Trump (For Nothing) 

[Ollumhammersong]

We have two big elections coming basically back to back here in Canada, the first is the Ontario provincial election (the most populated province and the largest economy. almost a third of the country's gdp on it's own) and then the federal election. So anything Trudeau promises right now doesn't matter because he already said he's not running again so he'll be out of a job by may. 

Both elections are already talking about who Canada should start doing business with aside from the US and how to best hurt the US if Trump tries the tariff bit again. Regardless of how this plays out, there's a big conversation started in Canada to simply do less business with the US going forward and try to ship more goods to the EU (or strengthen asian markets).

Even if by some miracle Washington apologizes, Alot of Canadians already do, and are going to continue to resent the US over this behaviour. I suspect whatever party promises to do the least trade with the US going forward will win a lot of votes in the federal election. 

[Al Terego]

Both elections are already talking about who Canada should start doing business with aside from the US and how to best hurt the US if Trump tries the tariff bit again.

As a Canadian, and an Ontarian, the last thing I want is "to hurt the US".

I consider neither revenge nor jingoism to be pragmatic, and therefore I am only interested in policies that will be beneficial to middle-class Canadians like myself.

The threat of retaliation can achieve the desired outcome when dealing with a rational actor, which seems not to be the case.  It appears that Trump believes that in any negotiation there must be a "winner" and a "loser".  If the other side didn't "lose", then by definition Trump did not win (thus failing to MAGA).  It looks like the concept of "win-win" is alien to him.

That said, diversification of trade to reduce the dependence on a single trading partner is arguably a good ting.

[Sofia Grace]

It appears that Trump believes that in any negotiation there must be a "winner" and a "loser".  If the other side didn't "lose", then by definition Trump did not win (thus failing to MAGA).  It looks like the concept of "win-win" is alien to him.

This made me think of a post I saw recently, by David Honig:

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn’t another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

[Ollumhammersong]

As a Canadian, and an Ontarian, the last thing I want is "to hurt the US".

I consider neither revenge nor jingoism to be pragmatic, and therefore I am only interested in policies that will be beneficial to middle-class Canadians like myself.

The threat of retaliation can achieve the desired outcome when dealing with a rational actor, which seems not to be the case.  It appears that Trump believes that in any negotiation there must be a "winner" and a "loser".  If the other side didn't "lose", then by definition Trump did not win (thus failing to MAGA).  It looks like the concept of "win-win" is alien to him.

That said, diversification of trade to reduce the dependence on a single trading partner is arguably a good ting.

It's not about getting revenge. Let's be real. Canada has no way of winning a drawn out trade war, and like you said. The only 'fair' deal trump believes in is one where America walks away with all our resources and somehow gets paid by the Canadian government for the inconvenience.

The only way we can hold our own and possibly convince him and his supporters that an economic spat is a bad idea is to make it hurt. Not out of revenge or jingoism, but simply because it's the only language he would understand. Any retaliation from Canada would need tk be targeted to have as immediate an effect as possible. 

This is why nearly all provinces pulled American liquor from shelves instead of putting a tariff on it. Tariffs take time for the effects to be felt, but simply not allowing an American product to be purchased to begin with, that has an immediate effect. We need to take other actions like this that will have an immediate, harsh effect on US business.

When I say 'make it hurt the US' I'm not trying to be sadistic. Simply pragmatic. We can't win in an economic fistfight with the US, so let's at least make sure the punches we do land leave as big a bruise as possible to make them rethink ever picking rhe fight to begin with, and maybe make Trump reconsider ever trying this again.

[TheGlyphstone]

The obvious weakness in the plan being Trump's inability to learn anything or being able to differentiate between the world he imagines and the world he lives in.

It'll still make Canada stronger and less vulnerable to pressure in the future, so it's a good plan to follow. But it won't have any effect on Trump's decision making and his followers will just blame Canada rather than consider their own choices to be at fault.

[Samael]

Both elections are already talking about who Canada should start doing business with aside from the US and how to best hurt the US if Trump tries the tariff bit again. Regardless of how this plays out, there's a big conversation started in Canada to simply do less business with the US going forward and try to ship more goods to the EU (or strengthen asian markets).

After Trump started to threaten Canada, a lot of influential voices in the EU start to support the idea of closer cooperation with Canada. From the more silly aspects of making Canada a part of the EU, since we actually do have a border, to simply greater trade agreements and perhaps expanding that to a deeper partnership down the road.

Naturally you must first cross the hurdle of the European Song Contest though.

[Ollumhammersong]

After Trump started to threaten Canada, a lot of influential voices in the EU start to support the idea of closer cooperation with Canada. From the more silly aspects of making Canada a part of the EU, since we actually do have a border, to simply greater trade agreements and perhaps expanding that to a deeper partnership down the road.

Naturally you must first cross the hurdle of the European Song Contest though.

Lol, I haven't heard any domestic discussion about joining the EU  but I suppose we do technically own some land at Vimy Ridge and a few other memorials. So it isn't impossible, lol.

I Definitely support selling and buying more to and from Europe over the US right now. Though the last trade deal we tried to sign with the EU got held up by Belgium I think? Something about not wanting our dairy imports? Or was it over beef? I can't remember buy I do remember it caused a ruckus.

As for competing in the euro vision, I'm sure we could find someone to put forward. 

[Al Terego]

Maybe we should open a Canadian elections thread here on PROC.

[Cosmo_ac]

Thanks for Sharing that post, Sofia.  I think that's a very informative bit of information, and fits with a lot of Trumps strategies that I've also noticed. 

[Ollumhammersong]

Thanks for Sharing that post, Sofia.  I think that's a very informative bit of information, and fits with a lot of Trumps strategies that I've also noticed.

It is a good post, this person knows how to articulate his point well 

Maybe we should open a Canadian elections thread here on PROC.

Not a terrible idea. There's certainly a lot going on right now