Russia/Ukraine discussion (split from News thread)

[Icelandic]

Much like liberals joining the NRA en masse to affect their elections...why doesn't Russia just join NATO and be one big happy family?

The reason is that NATO still serves it's original purpose. It's an anti-Russian alliance, and I highly doubt Russia could ever be accepted into it even if they tried.

[Conundrum]

Russia made informal overtures in 1989, 1991, and 1994 to join NATO.  In one incident they were practically laughed at and told they were the reason for NATO existing, all were harshly denied.

In 1954 the Soviet Union formally attempted to join NATO but after consideration was denied.

http://archives.nato.int/uploads/r/null/3/7/37267/RDC_54_215_BIL.pdf

I don't think Russia wants a major upgrade of the Ukraine conflict into a wider war for now. And Ukraine will be heading for elections next year, while the country is still almost bankrupt - if they have any brains they don't want a big war with Russia either. Nor does the rest of Europe.

In Ukraine elections are suspended during martial law.  Martial law has been declared in areas of low government support.  The current bill signed will result in martial law for the next 60 days with an option to continue.

https://censor.net.ua/news/3098975/poroshenko_podpisal_ukaz_o_vvedenii_voennogo_polojeniya_v_ukraine_polnyyi_tekst
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1067139998925770752


Part of this incident likely occurred in response to Ukrainian actions regarding Russian vessels.  As Ukraine does not recognize the 2014 Crimean Referendum they view the Sea of Azov around Crimea as legally Ukrainian water and therefore Russian vessels traversing those waters are viewed as doing so illegally.  As a result they have seized vessels under the Russian flag and sold them for entering what they claim to be their territorial waters.  Russia has responded by doing things such as blocking the Kerch Strait.  It was here that the Ukrainian vessels were seized after Russia claimed they violated Articles 19 and 21 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and attempted to pass through territorial Russian waters without proper notice.  This issue is compounded that even without recognizing the 2014 referendum Russia legally does own much the territorial waters in the Kerch Stait area and such a notice would be legally required.  At the same time Ukraine passed a bill that extended their claimed territorial waters 12 nautical miles.  I am not sure where this new border is at this time though.

https://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/1762544-za-zakhid-do-portiv-okupovanogo-krimu-zatrimali-15-suden


I do not believe I have seen it mentioned here but there is evidence the shots exchanged were not warning shots with the Ukrainian vessel Berdyansk.

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide

Berdyansk is the center vessel and in the first photo it's artillery shutter can be seen to be open.  In the second photo an impact site can be seen from a weapon.  The Gyurza-M should have noteworthy armor for a vessel of her class and the Russian AK630 close in defense system utilized on Rubin and Sorum class vessels does not fire singleshots as it is designed to fire almost 100 rounds per second.

[Tolvo]

Ah yeah I did see some reports saying inspectors noticed there were a lot of holes in the hulls.

[Tolvo]

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/28/671466911/russia-plans-to-deploy-more-s-400-missiles-to-disputed-crimea-peninsula

Some more news of possible escalation.

[Icelandic]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/29/why-did-ukraine-impose-martial-law/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0c32105a2465

Ukraine implemented martial law.

It's important to note that the indefinite martial law may have an effect on the country's elections happening soon. Their president, Poroshenko, has been sliding in the polls quite a bit and this could just be a move to keep him in power.

Less then a decade after the Western-backed coup and Ukraine is already a banana republic. Amazing.

[Tolvo]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/war-will-continue-as-long-as-ukraine-government-in-power-putin-1956541

So apparently at G20 Putin said that Russia was at war with Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/poroshenko-80000-russian-troops-ukraine-181201164222788.html

Things might escalate soon. Especially after Russia getting involved in aiding Syria and entering NATO airspace when Israel started bombing Syria to kill Iranians there.

[gaggedLouise]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/war-will-continue-as-long-as-ukraine-government-in-power-putin-1956541

So apparently at G20 Putin said that Russia was at war with Ukraine.

I think he may have meant that the war between Ukraine and the two breakaway republics near the Russian border will continue. So far, ever since the conflict flared up almost five years ago, both Russia and Ukraine have studiously avoided ever saying that they are at war with the other country. Russia claims not to be a party to any war in Ukraine, they would tell us that it's only the two breakaway states that are fighting Kiev (never mind that these are really Russian puppet states) and Ukraine has never said they are at war with Russia. Indeed Ukraine avoids referring to the struggle with the rebels in the east as a war, too: officially they'll just say they are putting down disorder. The reason is, they don't want to give any credit to the other side by actually saying the rebels make up any kind of regular army fighting a war.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/poroshenko-80000-russian-troops-ukraine-181201164222788.html

Things might escalate soon. Especially after Russia getting involved in aiding Syria and entering NATO airspace when Israel started bombing Syria to kill Iranians there.

We'll see, but I doubt that Putin would really stage a full-scale invasion of Ukraine at this point.

[Tolvo]

I wonder if even it could be a language thing.

I dunno it seems like he does want it, but he needs a good excuse that he just doesn't have yet.

[gaggedLouise]

I wonder if even it could be a language thing.

I dunno it seems like he does want it, but he needs a good excuse that he just doesn't have yet.

The two breakaway states seem to have joined into a single one. But the funny thing is, even though Russia says it is not involved on the ground in any war in eastern Ukraine but makes no secret of supporting the rebels - still, Moscow has never recognized them (or their two constituent parts) as a state. It would have been easy peach to do so, but no.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya_(confederation)#International_recognition

[Tolvo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/02/putin-refuses-to-release-ukrainian-sailors-and-ships

Apparently Putin was actually specifically saying Ukraine was at war with Russia, though it isn't an official declaration. As well he is changing the Russian story and admitting some serious things. And has so far said he is refusing to return the sailors in any capacity.

Ukraine also did ban military age Russian men from crossing the border.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672138169/amid-escalating-tension-ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-crossing-its-borders

https://www.france24.com/en/f24-interview/20181201-putin-refuses-talk-me-ukraines-poroshenko-tells-france-24

Ukraine's leader is alleging that Putin won't enter any talks with him or communicate with him.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/02/russia-tv-crew-spark-military-alert-suspicious-behaviour-uk/

There are even some UK tensions involved.

[gaggedLouise]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/02/putin-refuses-to-release-ukrainian-sailors-and-ships

Apparently Putin was actually specifically saying Ukraine was at war with Russia, though it isn't an official declaration. As well he is changing the Russian story and admitting some serious things. And has so far said he is refusing to return the sailors in any capacity.

Ukraine also did ban military age Russian men from crossing the border.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672138169/amid-escalating-tension-ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-crossing-its-borders

Putin is very vague about it - if he *is* talking about war between Ukraine and Russia it is (in his description) a very low-level war. Mostly he's still just saying that Ukraine made deliberate provocations, which isn't the same as a true state of war. I'm not trying to defend Putin, but I think it's hard to know the fine print of what he said or meant here without having it in Russian and knowing Russian (which neither of us does).

[Tolvo]

You technically don't know that. I have never said I don't know Russian.

Actually I wish I still talked to my one friend who is studying to become a professor of Russian and Ukrainian. Though he's pretty horrible about politics so maybe that's for the best.

[The Lovely Tsaritsa]

Mostly he's still just saying that Ukraine made deliberate provocations, which isn't the same as a true state of war. I'm not trying to defend Putin, but I think it's hard to know the fine print of what he said or meant here without having it in Russian and knowing Russian (which neither of us does).

This is what he says, and means, on news here.

[Tolvo]

Ah alright so it is more of a language thing like I was wondering.

[gaggedLouise]

This is what he says, and means, on news here.

Oh yes, I forgot that you are here too. Thanks! So he is still talking about "provocations" but not saying outright that Russia and Ukraine are at war, in a military sense?

[Tolvo]

Don't forget Tsarina, I think she feels people don't listen to her enough but I do value her input and she can explain a different perspective often. ^_^

[gaggedLouise]

Don't forget Tsarina, I think she feels people don't listen to her enough but I do value her input and she can explain a different perspective often. ^_^

I know, she's a nice lady and knowledgeable about how people in Ukraine and Russia might feel about this.

I'm sometimes gleaning insights about this from Dasha too, though she has retired from this part of the forum.

[The Lovely Tsaritsa]

War, is how Ukraine and Russia conflict is called here by politicians, and press often. In US everyone would say armed conflict, instead. Maybe it is significant, this time? But, I think press in West, is making big deal of nothing.

[Tolvo]

Ah alright. I do know there are other cultures and languages like that, which use war as a synonym for strife in general. Usually saying you are at war with something is a very extreme campaign against or active fight against something here.

[gaggedLouise]

War, is how Ukraine and Russia conflict is called here by politicians, and press often. In US everyone would say armed conflict, instead. Maybe it is significant, this time? But, I think press in West, is making big deal of nothing.

But is it called that way officially, a war between Moscow and Kiev? Open, MILITARY war. Not just a low-level war between Kiev and Novorossiya (ex-Donetsk and Lugansk)? Or just loosely by the media and some politicians, to drum up the talk and score political points?

It is fine print sometimes, yes. During the winter war in 1939-40, when Finland was attacked by the Soviet Union, Sweden was not strictly speaking a part in the war, but we were heavily involved, the army leased equipment and donated food supplies and munitions to the Finnish army and several thousand Swedish soldiers volunteered on the front for Finland in a "Swedish brigade". We went as far as we could short of actually declaring war on the USSR ourselves. It was a very deliberate tightrope walk.

[The Lovely Tsaritsa]

War in Donbas, officially, is “civil war”. There is no official war, yet, between Kyiv and Moscow. Separatists in Donbas, they get unofficial help, from Russian military. But, no open, military war, like you say.

[gaggedLouise]

War in Donbas, officially, is “civil war”. There is no official war, yet, between Kyiv and Moscow. Separatists in Donbas, they get unofficial help, from Russian military. But, no open, military war, like you say.

Spasibo! :)

[The Lovely Tsaritsa]

Пожалуйста.

[Tolvo]

https://www.unian.info/war/10360104-ukraine-reports-15-enemy-attacks-in-donbas-over-past-24-hours.html

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrinform-russia-backed-separatists-launched-six-attacks-on-ukrainian-troops-in-donbas.html

It looks like some things between the Separatists and Ukraine's army are heating up. Though I don't know about the validity of these sources, they are local Ukrainian but some of the terms seem very loaded. Like Russian Led attacks, Russian Backed maybe. But the Russians aren't invading yet as far as I've seen.

https://www.unian.info/war/10360371-osce-smm-s-uav-spots-heavy-weapons-in-non-government-controlled-areas-of-donbas.html

This as well. I think some things are heating up at least between the Separatists and Ukraine's government, but also these do seem to be reports with a bias so take the specifics with a grain of salt. Using terms like Occupiers and Russian Led, as well that it seems like some of the local Ukrainian reports can't agree on the number of attacks.

[The Lovely Tsaritsa]

Separatists define my use Russian weapons, equipment. They get support, a little, from Russian soldiers unofficial. But, most Separatists, they are from Eastern Ukraine.