The 2022 U.S. Election

[LostInTheMist]

American Politics Incoming: I'm headed to bed (4 A.M. Pacific Time) with the election still pretty much up in the air. Dems have a good chance of retaining the Senate, it looks like, and have a SHOT at keeping the house (it's still unlikely, but much better than it looked going into the night.) If pretty much every tossup goes the way of the Republicans, then they'll wind up with 230 House Seats to the Dems 215. If it all broke 50/50, the Republicans would have 225 to the Dems 220, an even slimmer house majority than the Dems currently have.

In my state (Oregon,) the Senate race went, as expected, to the Democrat (that was called just minutes after the polls closed; he's likely to win about 70% of the vote.) My district's House race has not been called. The numbers look like it's going to be the closest in almost 20 years (our Representative retired this year, so it's a new Dem and a Republican who lost twice against the old Representative.) The Dem is still expected (and I think probably in a good position) to win by 3-7% points, but there's still an outside shot for the Republican. And our Governor's race, it's still more or less a tossup. I'd give the Dem about a 65-70% chance of victory with the current state of the race, and what's left to count.

Things went far better for the Democrats than we (yes, I'm a registered Democrat, and yes, I voted) could have expected, however this turns out. Which is difficult to say when we're still likely going to lose the House, and the Republicans still have a shot at the Senate. But considering that the last time there was a first term Democrat in power for a midterm (2010) the Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate. (For those non-US readers who haven't tuned out yet, () there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 100 seats in the Senate.)

Oh, and the right to abortion won everywhere it was on the ballot with two yet to call. Kentucky looks to be headed towards rejecting an outright abortion ban, as does Colorado, but both states are still counting votes and no call has yet been made. Vermont and California and Michigan all put the right to choose into their state Constitution.

[Oniya]

I mentioned this in the 'Register to Vote' thread, but PA has Fetterman (beating out Dr. Oz to replace Pat Toomey) and kept Governor Shapiro (thank $DEITY) instead of bringing in Mastriano.  We still have Smucker, but he's at least a known quantity.

[TheGlyphstone]

2 more states added to the list for legalized Marijuana as well, Maryland and Missouri.

[Dashenka]

2 more states added to the list for legalized Marijuana as well, Maryland and Missouri.

Why is this a good thing?

[Vekseid]

For me, the government has no place in what people do with their own bodies, except to ensure informed consent.

[LostInTheMist]

Yeah, PA was a big one. Governor and Senator were both huge.

As for Marijuana, I'm always in favor of leglization. Legalizing it here in Oregon solved a couple of problems at once. Our prisons were overcrowded and it costs a TON to house inmates. By legalizing Marijuana we began the process of letting non-violent offenders who had committed no other crimes out, reducing the strain on our prison. The taxes collected on the marijuana also helped create not just a balanced budget, but a budget surplus. which we were able to use to invest in things like education campaigns, treatment programs, and of course, all the other essential government services.

Like alcohol, which is a far more deadly drug, you must be 21 or over to purchase or use marijuana, you're not allowed to drive under the influence, etc.

But that is a discussion for another day or another thread.

It's going to be a few days without a doubt until we know for sure who is in control of the House or the Senate. It might even be a month. It looks like Georgia is headed to a run-off, and depending on how the others shake out, it might be 50/49 Republicans/Democrats with Georgia set to once again determine control of the Senate.

[Clio]

Yeah, PA was a big one. Governor and Senator were both huge.

As for Marijuana, I'm always in favor of leglization. Legalizing it here in Oregon solved a couple of problems at once. Our prisons were overcrowded and it costs a TON to house inmates. By legalizing Marijuana we began the process of letting non-violent offenders who had committed no other crimes out, reducing the strain on our prison. The taxes collected on the marijuana also helped create not just a balanced budget, but a budget surplus. which we were able to use to invest in things like education campaigns, treatment programs, and of course, all the other essential government services.

Like alcohol, which is a far more deadly drug, you must be 21 or over to purchase or use marijuana, you're not allowed to drive under the influence, etc.

All of this. ^^^

[LostInTheMist]

The Nevada Senate was just called for Cotez Masto, so the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, regardless of how the Georgia runoff goes. This also makes it likely that Republican turnout will be depressed, since it will have no effect on control of the Senate. Democratic turnout will be high regardless.

It's still highly likely that the Republicans will win the House, but 18 races remain uncalled with 211-206 projected right now. 218 are needed for the majority, so Dems need to win 2/3 of the uncalled to keep a majority, where Republicans just need seven to go their way.

My state's governorship and house race both went my way, as I predicted, but couldn't say for sure. Also, a measure that will prevent the Republican minority from staging a walkout to prevent votes on common sense gun violence solutions and pollution control bills. If you miss more than 10 days during the session (without an excuse like a Doctor's note, etc.) you are ineligible to run again. And the only thing that matters to Republicans in my state more than preventing good laws from passing is keeping their jobs so they can continue to take payoffs from businesses and the gun lobby. We also banned slavery as punishment for a crime, and removed a number of other references to slavery from the State Constitution. And currently bills putting the right to affordable health care into the constitution and imposing background checks on gun sales are winning, but narrowly, so no call has been made yet.

[Oniya]

I realize that auto-correct jokes write themselves, but apparently Blake Masters was ionized.

[LostInTheMist]

That was too much T**** to read for the final sentence, but nice. Chemistry joke ftw.

[Oniya]

That's why I highlighted the important bit. 

[gaggedLouise]

I hope the aftermath of these elections will signal the beginning of some sort of real distancing of the GOP from Trump and his delusional movement. Nearly all candidates who had tied themselves closely to Trump or had enlisted his help in the closing stages of the campaign failed, most likely Kari Lake will fail too and get beaten by Hobbs. Lake has modelled most of what she says on Trump and Sarah Palin, and she's a die-hard "stolen election" mouthpiece. No doubt she will claim that this election was rigged too! 

Interestingly, in an unhinged rant against De Santis (who won in Florida, against Trump, on their home turf) on his own platform, Trump said in passing that he had "sent in FBI agents" to get the election count right and help De Santris back in 2018. This admission is something the DOJ really needs to look into.

[Oniya]

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/11/factchecking-trumps-bizarre-claim-of-stopping-desantis-2018-election-from-being-stolen/

Short version:  He's lying.  Again.

[Dashenka]

Short version:  He's lying.  Again.

That's the definition of a politician. They lie. They all do. Some more blatantly than others but they all do.


They lie to the voters and then when they are in power, come up with excuses why they cannot implement the lies. Usually they blame others.

Self reflection and honesty are two traits you cannot have as a politician.

[Oniya]

There are some that raise it to an art form.  Compared to those, Trump's lies are so poorly crafted that a pre-K art teacher would have him held back.  He could cause an android to self-destruct by saying 'I am lying.'

[Dashenka]

That's true yes. Some lie better than others. Trump's not very good at them.

[Callie Del Noire]

There are some that raise it to an art form.  Compared to those, Trump's lies are so poorly crafted that a pre-K art teacher would have him held back.  He could cause an android to self-destruct by saying 'I am lying.'

Y’know.. the man has been documented as having given out over 10k lies while in office, you’d think he’d be better at them. 

[TheGlyphstone]

My personal suspicion/guess is that many/most of them he doesn't think he's lying, that somewhere in the intersection of age + upbringing + temperament he lost the ability to cleanly distinguish between what is real and what he wants to be real.

[Clio]

My personal suspicion/guess is that many/most of them he doesn't think he's lying, that somewhere in the intersection of age + upbringing + temperament he lost the ability to cleanly distinguish between what is real and what he wants to be real.

Bingo.

I hope the aftermath of these elections will signal the beginning of some sort of real distancing of the GOP from Trump and his delusional movement. Nearly all candidates who had tied themselves closely to Trump or had enlisted his help in the closing stages of the campaign failed, most likely Kari Lake will fail too and get beaten by Hobbs. Lake has modelled most of what she says on Trump and Sarah Palin, and she's a die-hard "stolen election" mouthpiece. No doubt she will claim that this election was rigged too! 

Interestingly, in an unhinged rant against De Santis (who won in Florida, against Trump, on their home turf) on his own platform, Trump said in passing that he had "sent in FBI agents" to get the election count right and help De Santris back in 2018. This admission is something the DOJ really needs to look into.

Wait...I'm a bit confused. DeSantis against Trump?

[Oniya]

I'm not seeing anything that shows Trump as a candidate against DeSantis for governor.  I'd like to see a source for that one.

As far as his recent attacks on DeSantis, there's a section of the GOP that realizes that Trump is now an anchor, rather than a benefit.  While they still hold the same rabid views about women, immigration, etc, they're trying to distance themselves from the person of Trump.  (Case in point, virtually all of the Trump-supported candidates lost their elections.)  DeSantis is being bandied about as the potential GOP candidate for 2024, a role that Trump wants for himself.

As a result, Trump now perceives DeSantis as 'the enemy', and is attacking him.  He's also attacked Mitch McConnell, including some horrible slurs regarding McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao.

[Oniya]

Actually - I think I've found something, but it has no relation to a completed candidacy.

Apparently, there was a poll taken in Florida about who people would prefer as the 2024 Republican nominee, and DeSantis beat Trump 87% to 60% in the 'Very Favorable' rating.  (90% to 82% in the broader range of 'like vs. dislike'.)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2022/11/6/desantis-leads-trump-in-2024-florida-primary

[Clio]

I'm not seeing anything that shows Trump as a candidate against DeSantis for governor.  I'd like to see a source for that one.

As far as his recent attacks on DeSantis, there's a section of the GOP that realizes that Trump is now an anchor, rather than a benefit.  While they still hold the same rabid views about women, immigration, etc, they're trying to distance themselves from the person of Trump.  (Case in point, virtually all of the Trump-supported candidates lost their elections.)  DeSantis is being bandied about as the potential GOP candidate for 2024, a role that Trump wants for himself.

As a result, Trump now perceives DeSantis as 'the enemy', and is attacking him.  He's also attacked Mitch McConnell, including some horrible slurs regarding McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao.

Ugh. Glad I haven't seen the slurs. And yeah, DeSantis is awful and unfortunately won for governor. (I'm in Florida) I was not happy at all.

Actually - I think I've found something, but it has no relation to a completed candidacy.

Apparently, there was a poll taken in Florida about who people would prefer as the 2024 Republican nominee, and DeSantis beat Trump 87% to 60% in the 'Very Favorable' rating.  (90% to 82% in the broader range of 'like vs. dislike'.)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2022/11/6/desantis-leads-trump-in-2024-florida-primary

Ah. Okay. Maybe that's what they meant.

[Callie Del Noire]

Same here Clio, I’m in Jax. Ron DeSantis was basically given the election by the Democrats given they choose the same candidate as the last time. I honestly do not understand how they could back him again.

[Clio]

Same here Clio, I’m in Jax. Ron DeSantis was basically given the election by the Democrats given they choose the same candidate as the last time. I honestly do not understand how they could back him again.

Yeah. I don’t like Crist much either, but he’s like Biden. Better than the alternative.

[Thufir Hawat]

Yeah. I don’t like Crist much either, but he’s like Biden. Better than the alternative.

Something, something, faint praise?