War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[midnightblack]

A US official estimates Russia has committed 50% of its deployed troops. They appear to still lack even air superiority.

Some reports are suggesting Russia has halted its armor advance (with fuel and supply issues...) and is now trying a chaos strategy by paratrooping forces in wherever... which quickly get apprehended if the planes aren't actually shot down. If this is serious I am not sure what the purpose is. Carpetkrieg? Attack everywhere at once?

One of the ideas that I've seen presented is that Putin never really had the intention to attack. Rather, it was a bluff hoping that he could force the hand of the West to get some concessions during the Geneva negotiations. It seems a combination of his demands being so absurd and a general unwillingness of the West to simply abandon Ukraine in the vein of ~1945 negotiations in order to preserve "peace" led to him being caught in off-side and essentially being forced to commit to an unprepared attack in order to save face. Overall the plans appear hastily made and if the intention would had been to blitz Kiev in the morning of the 24th and take it by dusk we've all seen how that turned out.

I believe that he attempted once again to force the Ukrainians to surrender during the evening of the 25th, when he called for the Ukrainian army to turn arms against Zelensky and negotiate with the Russians. Regardless of whom he ended up negotiating with behind the curtains, it appears that his demands must once again have been so absurd that the Ukrainian side decided it's better to continue fighting. I am reading in the news currently that Lavrov has contacted his Turkish peer and went through a long explanation of their desire to "save Ukraine from nazism" and asked for support. I'm not an analyst, but again my simple and immediate conclusion is that they're likely taking much heavier casualties than originally anticipated and are hoping to find leverage for negotiations. I am not confident that Ukraine can "win" the battle, but I do agree that it is an international embarrassment for Russia, a deplorable retirement for Putin and a miserable new entry in the list of the great criminals of history that they've provided, alongside  Lenin and Stalin.

One thing I will add, though. The men of Ukraine are true warriors. I did not know what to think of Zelensky before this, but I commend his bravery.

[Leon Weber]

Yeah I honestly dont know enough about Zelensky to say one way or the other about him as far as domestic policy goes but I don't think anyone can reasonably call him or any of the Ukrainians cowards.

[Humble Scribe]

A US official estimates Russia has committed 50% of its deployed troops. They appear to still lack even air superiority.
Some reports are suggesting Russia has halted its armor advance (with fuel and supply issues...) and is now trying a chaos strategy by paratrooping forces in wherever... which quickly get apprehended if the planes aren't actually shot down. If this is serious I am not sure what the purpose is. Carpetkrieg? Attack everywhere at once?

Committed presumably means 'sent into Ukraine', not necessarily 'has seen combat'. But the air superiority thing is amazing. In spite of 1/4 of the Ukrainian air force ending up in Poland, the Russians are only claiming 7 destroyed Ukrainian aircraft so far. Seeing the pictures of Russian vehicles out of fuel and crying conscripts being berated by angry locals, I have to say that I expected the Russian military to be better than this. Maybe this will be Putin's undoing - he sends 3/4 of his army, but it can't/won't do the job, and turns out to be a paper tiger, more like a re-run of Chechnya rather than Crimea. But as usual, I will say the usual caveat, they haven't deployed the big stuff yet. Even so, Russian high command must be sweating now.

[midnightblack]

I've seen a news piece around that the Chechen commander sent to Ukraine and his regiment have already been wiped out. If it's true, it's certainly a moment of grim satisfaction within this tragedy. My understanding is that the heavy weaponry is being brought into range of Kiev at present, just as really heavy sanctions are being dropped by the EU and US. I think we're at the point where we're trying to prevent a genocide (if it hasn't come to that already) and WW3.

[Beorning]

I may be wrong, but I have this feeling that even if Putin wins this particular war and takes Ukraine, he really lost in the long term.

I mean, if Putin committed all of Russia's military and decided to disregard massive bloodshed (something I suspect he'd be willing to do), he could steamroll Ukraine, level Kiyv and terrorize the population into momentary submission. But even if he does that, then... what next? He'd be stuck with an occupied land full of really angry people. Meanwhile, Putin's (and Russia's) reputation abroad is already ruined, more and more sanctions are being implemented - and the various boycott actions are also getting steam (i.e. both Polish and Swedish national teams flatly refused to play against Russia in UEFA matches, Russia got suspended from Eurovision participation etc.). And even people in Russia are speaking out - today was the third day in a row when anti-war demonstrations took place in Russia, despite arrest numbers going into thousands...

Putin might win the war in the military sense, but he already lost reputation-wise. Who will treat him as a partner after he basically threatened the States and the rest of Europe with nuclear destruction? Or after his rants on how the Ukrainian government is comprised of Nazis and drug addicts? Who will want to support Russia afterwards, with the world having a clear coverage of the war, with images of destroyed civilian homes etc.? The masks are off, the world sees what kind of man Putin really is. Who will be willing to shake his hand now?

Not to mention, this war has already gave the world moments that are (for the lack of the better world) memetic. That Ukrainian woman giving a tongue-lashing to a Russian soldier is one thing. There's also the tragic "Russian warship, go f*ck yourselves" event - stuff like this goes down in history books.

So... who knows. Maybe this is the moment where the end of Putin begins...

[Annaamarth]

Putin might win the war in the military sense, but he already lost reputation-wise. Who will treat him as a partner after he basically threatened the States and the rest of Europe with nuclear destruction? Or after his rants on how the Ukrainian government is comprised of Nazis and drug addicts? Who will want to support Russia afterwards, with the world having a clear coverage of the war, with images of destroyed civilian homes etc.? The masks are off, the world sees what kind of man Putin really is. Who will be willing to shake his hand now?

China. Other authoritarian gov'ts that understand that having Russia as a friend is better than having him as an enemy. (For as long as that lasts).

Not to mention, this war has already gave the world moments that are (for the lack of the better world) memetic. That Ukrainian woman giving a tongue-lashing to a Russian soldier is one thing. There's also the tragic "Russian warship, go f*ck yourselves" event - stuff like this goes down in history books.

"All propaganga."  "Wow, the Ukrainian propaganda machine certainly has been suspiciously successful.  I wonder who in the West could be helping them, hmmmm?"  "That didn't do them any good when the tanks finally rolled in."

So... who knows. Maybe this is the moment where the end of Putin begins...

Perhaps, but I doubt it.  Ukraine is - absent a miracle - going to lose the war, although Russia seems to be bleeding hard for every inch.  It remains to be seen whether or not Russia can win the peace, but the end-game here is almost certainly to install a pro-Russia government and a new Ukraine that exists as a neo-Soviet satellite state.  Worse, the Russian internal propaganda machine remains strong, and while it is not universally effective - note the widespread protests by Russians in opposition to this invasion - it appears to be effective enough when coupled with internal policing - note the oppressed alternative parties in general, and the arrests following those protests in particular.

If we can compare to the Russian nationalist groups to the Polish AuthRight and the Trumpist movements in the USA (and Canada and UK and Australia, for some godawful reason), Putin still has enough support in the main to retain control.  Whether the oligarchs will continue to support him is another matter, but there is no clear successor to Putin that would still be oligarch-friendly that I know of.

[Vekseid]

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to hold talks on the Belorussian border. Putin is also placing Russia's strategic deterrence forces - including nuclear on high alert. These were announced simultaneously.

I can't particularly claim to be confident they will get very far.

Reportedly, Putin ordered Kyiv to be taken by Monday and obviously that is not going to happen, though one jounralist claimed 500 tanks were approaching the city in three columns. They barely managed a (supposedly temporary) breakthrough into Kharkiv.

The situation in Russia seems to be deteriorating. Protests in Russia continue, and some high-level Russian figures are beginning to speak out against the invasion.

Watching Putin makes me think he's gotten so used to living in his own constructed world that he has developed a serious case of solipsism syndrome. Like he lives in the room he's in - that he's built and filled with people who will admit to thinking the way he expects them to think.

[Leon Weber]

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to hold talks on the Belorussian border. Putin is also placing Russia's strategic deterrence forces - including nuclear on high alert. These were announced simultaneously.

I can't particularly claim to be confident they will get very far.

Reportedly, Putin ordered Kyiv to be taken by Monday and obviously that is not going to happen, though one jounralist claimed 500 tanks were approaching the city in three columns. They barely managed a (supposedly temporary) breakthrough into Kharkiv.

The situation in Russia seems to be deteriorating. Protests in Russia continue, and some high-level Russian figures are beginning to speak out against the invasion.

Watching Putin makes me think he's gotten so used to living in his own constructed world that he has developed a serious case of solipsism syndrome. Like he lives in the room he's in - that he's built and filled with people who will admit to thinking the way he expects them to think.

I can only hope that the Russian deterrent forces decide to do what Vasili Aleksandrovich Arkhipov did during the Cuban Missile Crisis and not give in and press the button, should the order be given by Putin as he watches his house of cards crumble around him because he embarrassed himself.

[midnightblack]

Reportedly, Putin ordered Kyiv to be taken by Monday and obviously that is not going to happen, though one jounralist claimed 500 tanks were approaching the city in three columns. They barely managed a (supposedly temporary) breakthrough into Kharkiv.

According to the news sources here (usually they all more or less align on the same thing, though it's hard to keep track of authenticity and everything should be taken with a grain of salt), heavy fighting in Harkov started in the early morning and developed towards "Russian troops have reached the center of the city" by around afternoon. By mid-afternoon the local governor announced that the city was secure and all enemies had been eliminated.

I'll be honest, I really can't make any sense of this, assuming the information is correct. Russia has all the advantages on paper in terms of numbers & equipment and they also have the initiative while the Ukrainians can at best defend. They have the experience of heavy fighting in theaters of war that were much more dangerous than Ukraine at present (Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Syria). There are many reports of tank columns getting obliterated all over the country and whatever the case may be, past the initial push of early Thursday morning they haven't really moved anywhere yet.

[Leon Weber]

According to the news sources here (usually they all more or less align on the same thing, though it's hard to keep track of authenticity and everything should be taken with a grain of salt), heavy fighting in Harkov started in the early morning and developed towards "Russian troops have reached the center of the city" by around afternoon. By mid-afternoon the local governor announced that the city was secure and all enemies had been eliminated.

I'll be honest, I really can't make any sense of this, assuming the information is correct. Russia has all the advantages on paper in terms of numbers & equipment and they also have the initiative while the Ukrainians can at best defend. They have the experience of heavy fighting in theaters of war that were much more dangerous than Ukraine at present (Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Syria). There are many reports of tank columns getting obliterated all over the country and whatever the case may be, past the initial push of early Thursday morning they haven't really moved anywhere yet.

Well you have to consider that the Ukrainians have been preparing for this moment for a while. Also this is the first time we're seeing conventional military forces clash in such a way, fighting against Guerillas in Chechyna, Syria, and Afghanistan is not the same in reality as it is going up against a conventional military force that has been digging in and waiting for you to invade. They were ready for the shock and awe tactics, they were ready for the attempted VDV deployments all over the country.

The Ukrainians are fighting smart, forcing Russia to stretch its supplies and logistics longer than they can realistically maintain them and then clamping down. A couple big gambles were taken here by both sides.

Putin was gambling that his shock and awe tactics would work and he'd be able to secure Kyiv swiftly and cut the head off their government and force the Ukrainian forces into a route and to make them resort to a guerilla resistance which his veterans are experienced in fighting in the wars with Isis and such.

The Ukrainians were gambling that Russia were underestimating their willingness to fight.

Its fairly obvious which of these gambles paid off.

Also it should be noted that its almost always easier to defend than it is to attack. This is a pretty well known facet of warfare that goes back a long time. You can use the old Patton argument that nobody ever successfully defended anything and while that does hold some truth, a defending force properly dug in and ready for their enemy is going to do a lot of damage to that enemy before the enemy can secure its goal.

[Humble Scribe]

Ukraine is - absent a miracle - going to lose the war

I don't know. I was surer of that a few days ago, but a military connected friend of mine has pointed out that although Russia has a 4-1 advantage in armour and mechanised vehicles, it only has a 3:2 advantage in manpower, and that's prior to Ukraine's crash mobilisation, which means the Russians may be able to make progress in the countryside (provided they can keep the fuel supplies going), but are going to find taking cities difficult, possibly even if they resort to scorched earth tactics.

I was thinking back to the Yugoslav war - I know people in Vukovar, where it took 36,000 Serbs with full armour and air capability three months to capture a city held by a couple of thousand Croatian national guard, losing several thousand troops, 600 vehicles and 20 aircraft (and levelling the city in the process). By the time the city fell the Serb offensive was spent.

Russian morale is also starting to look quite flaky, whereas the Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. I doubt if Putin would be talking if he thought he was winning.

[Vekseid]

According to the news sources here (usually they all more or less align on the same thing, though it's hard to keep track of authenticity and everything should be taken with a grain of salt), heavy fighting in Harkov started in the early morning and developed towards "Russian troops have reached the center of the city" by around afternoon. By mid-afternoon the local governor announced that the city was secure and all enemies had been eliminated.

I'll be honest, I really can't make any sense of this, assuming the information is correct. Russia has all the advantages on paper in terms of numbers & equipment and they also have the initiative while the Ukrainians can at best defend. They have the experience of heavy fighting in theaters of war that were much more dangerous than Ukraine at present (Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Syria). There are many reports of tank columns getting obliterated all over the country and whatever the case may be, past the initial push of early Thursday morning they haven't really moved anywhere yet.

The videos are online - the incursions were a few groups of a handful of vehicles and an escort. Honestly IMO kind of insane to enter such a large city with so little.

The Russians are making fairly clear progress in the south, however, and this is presumed to be Ukraine's biggest threat at the moment. Still, at this rate it could be weeks before Kyiv is fully encircled and Russia may not have that time. Or Putin might not, rather.

[Norwegian One]

The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz said that defending was always easier than and preferable to attacking, for a number of reasons; objectives, logistics, morale, strategically and tactically. A defender has the advantage of waiting for the opponent, in most cases knowing where the attacker comes from, while the attacker often wades into the unknown, with all the disadvantages that has in terms of cover, reaction times and morale.

Someone said it quite succinctly in that "The attacker loses if he doesn't win. The defender wins if he doesn't lose."

Also, I agree, Russia seems to have expected an easier fight than they are getting, but I also think Ukraine was underestimated. I recently spoke to a colleague of mine who's originally from Estonia (not the same thing, I know, but close enough in terms of the overhanging threat of Russia), and she said that for everyone who's grown up in the late stages of the Soviet Union, there's a sense that complacency in the face of Russia (especially Putin's Russia) is dangerous. Ukraine's had 30 years of independence, and I think they have expected that this might happen someday.

Yes, the Russian army is greatly superior, but Russia's not going to bring the entirety of its armed forces down on Ukraine. Russia's a big country, and they can't put everything into one basket. Ukraine, again as the defender, can. Even if Russia is ten times stronger than Ukraine, if Russia can only use 10% of its forces to fight Ukraine, that's a more manageable fight for Kyiv.

[Beorning]

On the international side of the war, it seems like Russian banks *will* be blocked from SWIFT (to some extent). Also, Germany gave in and decided to send weapons to Ukraine. And the boycotts are getting traction: apparently, UEFA *did* decide to cut its ties to Gazprom and there is a mounting pressure on FIFA to ban the Russian team from the World Cup.

On the human side: I watched a "talking heads" programme on TVN24 today, where various journalists commented on the situation. I was moved by what one rather prominent Catholic journalist said... Clearly shaken, he talked of how earlier today he read of a small Ukrainian girl killed by the Russians - and then, he said (more or less):

"Being a Catholic, I shouldn't really be saying this, but... I do hope that all these international sanctions result that, soon - in some bunker, behind some armoured door - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be shot dead by his own associates!"

[Valerian]

China. Other authoritarian gov'ts that understand that having Russia as a friend is better than having him as an enemy. (For as long as that lasts).

The Chinese government doesn't seem all that willing to go out on a limb for Putin as far as helping him beat the sanctions.  They like him just fine, of course, but they also know that they have to be able to keep their own economy together, and the best way for them to do that is to keep on good terms with Europe and the US -- they do a great deal more business with those countries than with Russia.  They don't seem all that interested in risking getting sanctions levied against them for helping Russia, not at this point.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-business-china-beijing-0cddcb31f04748a3de8f36b5cd1ac7df

[Oreo]

Wanted to touch the thread to follow along. Heard this yesterday and still it is touching me.

Why Ukraine Has Already Won the War

[midnightblack]

Well  now. I did not watch the above video yet, but given what has transpired in the last 12 or so hours, the title holds my exact sentiment. Between the complete unity of the EU and NATO on the front, the EU not only pledging to purchase armaments for Ukraine and delivering them fighter jets according to the head of EU diplomacy, it appears Ursula von der Leyen made the following statement over night:

"Ukraine is one of us and we want them in EU"

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and-we-want-them-in-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-euronews

I don't often like to use the word in this context, but this is a complete humiliation for Putin and his only achievement in this whole tragic ordeal is staining his hands red and knocking Russia back in the dark ages of international affairs. The only decent thing for him to do right now would be a complete stand down and an immediate retreat from all Ukrainian territories. It won't be the case, obviously. The probability of him doing that is about as high as having his clique gather enough common sense and decency between them to take him down and put an end to what has been for a very long time a miserable and terrorist regime. I had in the months prior read several opinions from local analysts knowledgeable in the Eurasian space who were saying that a dragged out Russian presence at this stage in Ukraine would turn out far more bloody and violent for them than Afghanistan was in the 80s. I did not believe that until last night, but now I'm certain that if Putin doesn't stand down, not one of his men will make it back alive. That's a lot of angry Ukrainians backed up by literally the entire planet.

[Lux12]

As a descendant of a Ukrainian immigrant who knows how my ancestors were treated under the Tsar and then further abused by the imperialist regime masquerading as a "communist" one, I am glad to see that Russia is not having an easy time. I am not a nationalist or a patriot of any kind, but I've been praying to my ancestors to help foil Putin's attempts because while I imagine my great grandfather and I may not see eye to eye on a number of things, we'd be united in one cause...And that cause is fuck you Putin. I have an innate and intense loathing of authoritarians, autocrats, and imperialism.

[Beorning]

Okay, so who is this Tulsi Gabbard woman? And could anyone call her out on the bullsh*t she's saying?

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1496695830715142148

Could somebody please tell her that this war is not about the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO? That Putin isn't interested in Ukraine being neutral, but wants it as his puppet - or even incorporated back into Russia's territory?

And sticking to the topic od infuriating opinions, the spokeswoman for China's foreign affairs ministry accused NATO and the UE of escalating the war and claimed that if we were so concerned about the plight of Ukrainian people, we should stop sending weapons to Ukraine. Because, apparently, the sooner Ukraine submits to Putin, the better!

Can the world punish China for supporting Putin, please? Down with tyrants!

[Oniya]

Tulsi Gabbard was one of the Democratic candidates running against Trump in the past election.  It came out that she was one of Putin's preferred candidates (most likely because she would have lost to Trump) and so the Russian bots were really hyping her on social media. 

[Oniya]

Found an article from 2019 that shows the initial stirrings of support:  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/russia-s-propaganda-machine-discovers-2020-democratic-candidate-tulsi-gabbard-n964261

[Norwegian One]

Things are going... not great for Putin.

The ruble is down by between 20 and 30% according to the last source I checked (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/russian-rouble-plunges-to-record-lows-amid-sanctions-push), and the economy is predictably taking a hit. The Russian interest has hiked substantially as well, in a bid to shore up the sudden plummet, which should hit the average Russian and might further erode the support of what Putin is doing in Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992).

In addition, UEFA and FIFA just announced that Russian teams, both national and international, are suspended from all tournaments until further notice.

[Norwegian One]

Things are going... not great for Putin.

The ruble is down by between 20 and 30% according to the last source I checked (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/russian-rouble-plunges-to-record-lows-amid-sanctions-push), and the economy is predictably taking a hit. The Russian interest has hiked substantially as well, in a bid to shore up the sudden plummet, which should hit the average Russian and might further erode the support of what Putin is doing in Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992).

In addition, UEFA and FIFA just announced that Russian teams, both national and international, are suspended from all tournaments until further notice.

EDIT: Oh, and I almost forgot!

Norwegian company Equinor is pulling out of Russia, and the Norwegian Oil Fund, the largest monetary fund in the world, is also pulling out.

[Lustful Bride]

I've seen a news piece around that the Chechen commander sent to Ukraine and his regiment have already been wiped out. If it's true, it's certainly a moment of grim satisfaction within this tragedy. My understanding is that the heavy weaponry is being brought into range of Kiev at present, just as really heavy sanctions are being dropped by the EU and US. I think we're at the point where we're trying to prevent a genocide (if it hasn't come to that already) and WW3.

Seems like this might be true. I truly hope it is.

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/02/chechen-leader-behind-gay-torture-execution-campaign-killed-ukraine/

[Vekseid]

There has been a lot of pro-Ukrainian info with somewhat limited verification, that being one of them. It seems to be probable only in that he hasn't been paraded around, which would be happening if he was alive.

Michael Kofman has posted an analysis here which has gained traction in the more savvy parts of the armchairosphere. Russia is altering its tactics, and things are getting uglier quickly.

I disagree slightly about Russia's ability to supply its forces deep into Ukraine, I am not sure if that is a given.

Somewhat notably, in the ISW's (Institute for the Study of War) latest report, they seemed to express uncertainty that Russia has the capability to capture Kyiv, though atrocious civilian casualties are almost certain. Which is probably the most optimistic they've gotten about Ukraine having a chance. They might be hedging their bets after drastically underestimating Ukraine going into this.