Brexit

[gaggedLouise]

...or Yorkshire, rather than Scotland I guess. Anýway, really not a smart move by Boris if this is true, and I think it is.

[Mechelle]

Actually, Cummings' trip was to County Durham - the land of the Prince-Bishops - which is between Yorkshire and Scotland. :)

It appears that Boris Johnson did not go to Perugia. Tony Blair did go there, but he was mistaken for Boris Johnson, and that is how this story started.

[gaggedLouise]

Actually, Cummings' trip was to County Durham - the land of the Prince-Bishops - which is between Yorkshire and Scotland. :)

It appears that Boris Johnson did not go to Perugia. Tony Blair did go there, but he was mistaken for Boris Johnson, and that is how this story started.

You mean "same kind of guy"? They don't look very similar...  ;)

[Mechelle]

You mean "same kind of guy"? They don't look very similar...  ;)

No, they don't. Maybe somebody recognised "the British Prime Monister" and the story grew. The government denials weren't convincing either which gave the story more oxygen.

[Haibane]

I read that as "the British Prime Monster", which for slips of the brain is pretty apposite.

[gaggedLouise]

In case you people missed it, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen is in self-imposed quarantine for two weeks after an event where she came reasonably close to someone who then turned out, within days later, to be corona positive. Yes, the same lady whom Boris had hoped to sit down with in a final effort to get past the tightening Brexit/trade conundrum that is coming back to haunt him... (the deadline for meaningful negotiations was supposed to be October 15).

No doubt there will be video conference sessions between them, but I figure Boris is much more effective as a negotiator when he is meeting people in the same room, face to face.

[Mechelle]

Johnson and Von Der Leyen did meet later on, but the surprise news is that we are apparently very close to a deal, although it hasn't been finalised yet, with the final sticking point, as ever, being fishing.

My predictions: there will be a deal. Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier will say that the UK gave concessions.  Boris Johnson and David Frost will say that the EU gave concessions.  Labour will mostly support the deal as a deal is better than no deal, however bad it is. The Eurosceptics of the ERG in the Conservative Party will mostly support it as well out of party loyalty, however bad it is. Nigel Farage will oppose it, for his own political ends, however good it is.

This means it will get through,if something can actually get agreed.

[Mechelle]

Sorry for replying to my own post, but my predictions weren't bad at all, if I do say so myself.  The one thing I got wrong was that Nigel Farage has not found fault with the deal (although I still think he will) but the Brexit supporting Democratic Unionist Party and fishing industry spokesmen have both complained about it. The EU haven't crowed about it in the way Boris Johnson and his fans have, but the deal tends to cover the areas more important to the EU economy (goods) and not those most important to the UK (services). We finally exit from the European Union in just under two hours as I write this.

Boris Johnson's eighty year old father, Stanley, who is a former Member of the European Parliament, has today announced that he is applying for French citizenship on the basis of his mother's French birth and ancestry, and says that he will always be a European.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/31/stanley-johnson-confirms-application-for-french-passport-on-eve-of-brexit

[Kitteredge]

It seems like the EU hasn't responded to it too much, apart from some chatter in Der Spiegel and analogues, because they aren't terribly concerned about this? The UK has whipped themselves into a frenzy but this will impact them far more than the collective union.

One big interest to me is the services sector. With fishing rights sucking up the attention, there goes The City and Canary Wharf. I know Dublin is considering how much it wants to transform and then Scotland a possibility (if it ever leaves) with some offices in Glasgow and Edinburgh, but it seems like the financial industry may be heavily impacted. London was able to skate on being English speaking and very open to global finance and that may get clobbered. If so, woof.

[Mechelle]

This was originally posted in the "What's in the News" thread, but, as Haibane's suggestion, I have posted it here too, for any discussion on post-Brexit adjustments. I have added a further link to the original post, to show that Fisheries Minister Victoria Prentis had not read the Brexit bill as she was too busy organising a nativity trail. I do think the timing of the agreement was deliberate to avoid scrutiny, but even from government ministers!
==========================================================================

One of the government's , and Brexiters' like Nigel Farage, main reasons for Brexit was to support the fishermen. However, those same fishermen have had a protest in London today complaining that the additional red tape which is now required makes it impossible for them to export fresh fish. and seafood.

Boris Johnson had  earlier said that the delays were because companies were not filling in the forms correctly, while Jacob Rees-Mogg, in what was probably supposed to be a joke, said that the fish were British and happier for it now. They are probably happier because they are less likely to be caught in future, as it'not worthwhile, to be fair.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55706114
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-fish-brexit-b1787271.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/13/fisheries-minister-admits-not-reading-brexit-bill-as-she-was-at-nativity

[Haibane]

It strikes me that the EU is making every effort to be vindictive to the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55903599

[Kitteredge]

It strikes me that the EU is making every effort to be vindictive to the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55903599

Not really. I may be mistaken, but the rule is no imports of these creatures from outside the EU. The UK is not part of the EU. The regulation has not changed.

[HairyHeretic]

It said the UK thought the rules were going to be changing, but apparently not. Since the UK is out of the EU, it has to abide by the same restrictions as other non EU countries.

That being said, the EU has no reason to go easy on the UK, as that could encourage similar movements in other countries.

[Kitteredge]

The Tories made had an incredible fantasy life about how this would happen.

[Haibane]

I may be mistaken, but the rule is no imports of these creatures from outside the EU. The UK is not part of the EU. The regulation has not changed.

That is not the whole story. The EU advised that the import rules "may be changed" but then, post the Brexit talks, chose to not change them. Its entirely possible that they intended not to change them all along - well pre- the finalised deal, but elected not to advise the UK. I think my initial view holds. The EU could alter/have altered their rules and may have led the UK to believe this would be the case.

From the linked BBC report:

The UK government previously said it thought the restrictions on exports of bivalve molluscs - such as mussels, clams, cockles, scallops and oysters - would end on 21 April.

This was because Brussels was "expected" to change its rules on that date to allow unpurified shellfish in from non-member states.

But it has emerged - as first reported by Politics Home - that the European Commission wrote to leading UK companies on 13 and 19 January to tell them the current arrangement would be in place indefinitely.

So - yeah, in my view an anti-UK move.

[Mechelle]

I am more concerned about the threats of violence being aimed at customs inspectors from right-wing Loyalist paramilitaries when the former attempt to carry out their work at the new maritime border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which was introduced as part of Boris Johnson's deal. The Democratic Unionist Party were in favour of Brexit, but hate this new border. Staff have been withdrawn for their own safety.

I think either this or a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland were the inevitable consequences of Brexit, but no Brexiters seemed to have foreseen any potential problems.

This link does give some further information, but has a political slant.

https://www.politico.eu/article/inspectors-brexit-eu-uk-checks-northern-ireland-ports-threats/

[Haibane]

I wonder if we might please be able to have a discussion without using labels like "Brexiters".

I too find it simply bizarre that Johnson agreed what in effect is a species of customs border between two parts of the British Isles.

[Mechelle]

I had chosen "Brexiter" as a neutral description rather than "Brexiteer" or "Brextremist," incidentally. The British Isles don't form one state, but the United Kingdom does, or is supposed to.

[Kitteredge]

That is not the whole story. The EU advised that the import rules "may be changed" but then, post the Brexit talks, chose to not change them. Its entirely possible that they intended not to change them all along - well pre- the finalised deal, but elected not to advise the UK. I think my initial view holds. The EU could alter/have altered their rules and may have led the UK to believe this would be the case.

Well, sure, obviously the EU can change their own rules.

And nobody lead the UK on. The UK is living in a private fantasy world all of their own.

[Haibane]

The British Isles don't form one state, but the United Kingdom does, or is supposed to.

Yes, the state is the United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). However my statement was correct. The mainland of Great Britain on the one hand and Northern Ireland on the other are "two parts of the British Isles".

There was formerly no customs of any form between NI and the rest of the UK. Now there is. A border inside a sovereign state. This was never an expected, intended or desirable result of Brexit, I am sure, but was a result of the absolute need to avoid a hard border between NI and Eire.

I think a term like pro-Brexit voters or pro-Brexit officials is a more neutral term, or perhaps just "the majority". As in "most of the people living in the United Kingdom who bothered to vote". I've never seen "Brexiter" as a term before and it is a little too close to "Brexiteer" which carries derogatory connotations.

I am not sure why you added the comment "...or is supposed to". It does. There is no "supposed".

Well, sure, obviously the EU can change their own rules.

After allegedly giving the UK an indication that they would change them in a certain way at a certain date. The date of 1st April is mentioned. That date must be significant in order that the article references it. A date on which something was intended or expected to happen and then did not. That is not the way mature diplomatic and trading business is done. Holding an expectation out until the other party commits, and then withdrawing the expectation. That is a decidedly negative if not to say antagonistic means of negotiation, particularly given how long, drawn-out and rancorous the negotiations have been over several years.

Look at the mess the most senior echelons of the EU caused a few days ago over the threat of invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol regarding vaccine supplies. There is fair cause to view the way the EU is acting as being unreasonable, or at least irresponsible.

And nobody lead the UK on. The UK is living in a private fantasy world all of their own.

I didn't suggest anyone was led on. Nor did the article I linked to.

I am living in the UK and I am not in a fantasy world, private or otherwise. It feels like some more carefully chosen language would help the discussion here.

[Haibane]

Correction. I meant to type "21st April" instead of "1st April".

[Kitteredge]

I'm not sure what your point is. You seem to believe the UK deserves special treatment for some reason, when they are not part of the trading union. Why would they deserve special considerations? It's very confusing.

[TheGlyphstone]

If I might wager a guess, it's not about whether the UK deserves special treatment, but if it was implicitly promised special treatment as part of the separation agreement, a promise that is apparently now being reneged upon.

Should that be the case, though, I can't express a great deal of sympathy for the UK, as this would be a fault of their negotiators to not get explicit terms in writing. Particularly in a separation this acrimonious, it would have been foolish of them to trust to the EU's goodwill and generosity. 

[Humble Scribe]

I too find it simply bizarre that Johnson agreed what in effect is a species of customs border between two parts of the British Isles.

He had no real choice (other than abandoning Brexit because it's a stupid idea).

To preserve borderless trade between the Irish republic and Northern Ireland, the border has to move elsewhere. It can either encompass the whole UK (Theresa May's deal) and keep the UK in the Customs Union - or else you run the border down the Irish Sea (Johnson's deal). May's deal would have been more sensible, but as her downfall showed, it was also politically impossible to get a Tory party in hock to its right wing to sign up to. So he did the latter because it's easier for the UK to fudge internal UK trade than external. The alternative was a hard border and the end of the Anglo-Irish agreement/return of the Troubles.

[Mechelle]

Arlene Foster, the Democratic Unionist First Minister of Northern Ireland, has launched a petition calling for Boris Johnson to trigger Article 16, as she is concerned about the distinction caused between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. This was the same Article 16 for which the EU were heavily  and rightly criticised  for threatening to trigger a few days ago.

Nigel Farage enthusiastically supports her, urging "Brexiteers and those that believe in the UK to do the same".

Note that "Brexiteers" is his word not mine - I would use a more neutral term, but people like Farage like it as they believe it makes them sound like buccaneers, which is, apparently, a Good Thing.



https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-and-more-35000-others-sign-dup-petition-calling-prime-minister-boris-johnson-trigger-article-16-ni-protocol-3124638