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Author Topic: Krugman declares this the Third Depression  (Read 4013 times)

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Offline Lithos

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #25 on: July 05, 2010, 02:59:15 AM »
Also you need to be very aware that the need of oil is not really all about the vehicles. To most of us, world without petroleum based things such as most (currently safe to say all) plastics, would be strange one indeed.

Offline Revolverman

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #26 on: July 05, 2010, 04:11:32 AM »
The way you put it makes it seem like it will just magically happen. That's a bad trap to get into.

It's not something to be ignored, the production figures show North America supplying only half of its own needs in 2030 with current trends.

So in order to make it self sustaining, a combination of reduced consumption, alternative sources and additional exploration need to make up half of our needs, and the process needs to begin returning results in five or six years.

Buy a bike. I am.

Proclamations of doom are ludicrous and counterproductive. But so is ignoring it.

I'm not ignoring it. I'm saying if oil got to expensive to use a fuel, and had to be replaced by something cheaper (whatever that might be) it would cause stocks that might normally only last another 10-20 years to last much longer, as the biggest use of oil is fuel.

Also you need to be very aware that the need of oil is not really all about the vehicles. To most of us, world without petroleum based things such as most (currently safe to say all) plastics, would be strange one indeed.

Thats why I say the dumbest thing to do to oil is burn it.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #27 on: July 05, 2010, 09:54:09 AM »

Thats why I say the dumbest thing to do to oil is burn it.

 There's nothing that comes close to having the power per gallon that oil does.

Offline WyldRanger

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Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #28 on: July 05, 2010, 11:19:19 AM »
I know myself and others have been seeing this coming for more than a decade now.

I would be one of the 'others' that saw this coming for more than a decade now. One reason I thought this could happen was looking at the one of the causes of the Great Depression was financial un-regulation. Now during the 80s-90s deregulation seemed to be a leading indicator. Now I don't know as much as some people, but that seems to be a great part of the problem.

Offline Trieste

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Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #29 on: July 05, 2010, 12:01:40 PM »
Also you need to be very aware that the need of oil is not really all about the vehicles. To most of us, world without petroleum based things such as most (currently safe to say all) plastics, would be strange one indeed.

I don't know if they have anything like this for you, Lithos, but take a look: http://lifewithoutplastic.com/

Offline Lithos

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #30 on: July 05, 2010, 03:15:44 PM »
I don't know if they have anything like this for you, Lithos, but take a look: http://lifewithoutplastic.com/

We and possibly Russia and Canada have perhaps enough wood to change to completely wooden construction in most items, globally we would see paper price shoot up though since there would not be low competition wood for paper mills anymore. Bad part is that wood is also one of the main competitors for oil / coal as far as warming houses and such goes. So changing to ecological wood based products theme in our lives would probably come with the cost of our nature and forests, and carry very large price tag.

Many oil alternatives work great as marginal products but have big problems in transferring to real mass products.

Offline itsbeenfun2000

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #31 on: July 06, 2010, 12:35:51 AM »
[.  We have military bases all over the world.  What other country does that?



We are lazy and greedy.  We're all only interested in our own comfort and pleasure.  We're still gulping oil like there's an endless supply because giving it up might mean giving up some modern conveniences.  I've seen people in my town get in their cars and drive one street over to get the mail!  If that person does this every day, think about how much gas she is wasting a month.  People also seem to like to leave their cars running. 

There is a huge gap between classes.  The rich are getting obscenely so, and the poor are getting desperate.  As the unemployment rate goes up there are more people that need government programs like food stamps to survive, but there is less money for it.  Growing up I never saw a homeless person, but I'm seeing lots of them now.

I think health care is important, but they fucked it up.  I understand wanting to phase some things in, but it's going to take too long, and there aren't enough regulations.  The mandatory thing pisses me off. 

If you were to go back in history and look at the fall of every empire, you will find all of these elements.  I know we like to think that since we're in a modern technological age that it can't happen, but it can.  It could still be avoided, but those in charge would really have to get their acts together and stop being two year olds.  Sadly, they don't seem to have any interest in doing that.   
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There seems to be a lot of doom and gloom right now but can I point out that the American people donate more privately to causes then any people in the world. We gave more during the tsunami in Indonesia then anyone else including any government. As far as our bases all over the world I would point out that only the US military is able to help out in times of a natural disaster. We don't give ourselves enough kudos for that.

We have been in worse situations economically. We will make it through with innovation and helping one another as time passes. Imagine what would have happened if our grandparents and parents threw their hands in the air during the great depression and quit.

I try to stay positive as best as I can. I have to I am a teacher. I am not going to look on the dark side of every corner when the kids I teach depend on the adults to come up with a way to get us through these tough times.

Offline Asuras

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2010, 11:21:31 PM »
Quote from: Vekseid
If you have a hundred million to blow on hardware and gateway fees to start with, sure. Starting Blogger (which the Twitter founders originally did) and/or Wordpress would be the easier route. You could scale earlier and better than either of them just by looking into event driven webserving first.

That's not my point. Clearly if I was psychic in 2000 with a propensity toward software I would have done that but this is completely irrelevant to the topic.

Quote from: Vekseid
I don't find it insulting, personally. The people in charge of social networks ~10-20 years from now are going to hold an enormous amount of power, and many people with an enormous amount of money right now are very well aware of this.

The insulting thing is the technical simplicity relative to the technical capabilities of a common programmer.

Quote from: Vekseid
Or simply act as a facilitator, securing loans provided straight to the banks, which seems to be the majority of what we're doing now.

It is exactly what the federal government is doing now.

Quote from: Vekseid

You're not worried. There are members here who are still wondering if they're going to be able to eat next month, one of them in Wal Mart's home town of all places. Yes, China will eventually have to play ball. How soon is soon?

And the disconnect between the Chinese elite and their working class is one of the worst in the world. This won't be the first time they've been pressured into revaluing their currency.

I think people overrate the role that the trade deficit plays in the US. If people have to worry when they will eat it's because of our domestic unemployment system - it could just as matter be Mexico or New Mexico - not because of the Chinese.

Quote from: Vekseid
I think many of the people arguing this sort of thing experience debt as a trap, rather than something that aids in liquidity. Another subtle culture division.

Fine, though this doesn't vindicate their arguments.

Quote from: Vekseid
There are some nifty similarities, however. America's finesse with water management, for example.

I would not ascribe Rome's fall to "failure to manage water," and - while the US does have a tremendous need to more responsibly manage its water for economical reasons - I really don't believe we're at a crisis position in this.

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Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2010, 02:11:30 AM »
I would not ascribe Rome's fall to "failure to manage water,"

Making your pipes mostly out of lead does wonders for the effectiveness of your government.  ::)

*flees thread*

Offline VekseidTopic starter

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #34 on: July 14, 2010, 09:10:25 AM »
The insulting thing is the technical simplicity relative to the technical capabilities of a common programmer.

You probably weren't around for Microsoft getting the same sort of flak for the way it excused its programming style. "So what if it's buggy? We ship first."

This was actually encouraged in their 90's programming manuals.

Overall though, the technical simplicity of it is overshadowed by grasping how social groups work. Programmers tend not to have much insight into that area and people who fundamentally understand that area tend not to be very technical.

Quote
I think people overrate the role that the trade deficit plays in the US. If people have to worry when they will eat it's because of our domestic unemployment system - it could just as matter be Mexico or New Mexico - not because of the Chinese.

We're so thoroughly burdened by special interests that they themselves are the problem.

Quote
Fine, though this doesn't vindicate their arguments.

So? Until the majority of the American population learns that, their belief is what counts.

Quote
I would not ascribe Rome's fall to "failure to manage water," and - while the US does have a tremendous need to more responsibly manage its water for economical reasons - I really don't believe we're at a crisis position in this.

Actually I was referring to the opposite - we devote a rather lot of effort to water management as is. Though the anti-intellectual movement has been weighing in ever harder the past few decades - but they're a problem from any angle.

Offline Bayushi

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #35 on: July 15, 2010, 12:50:41 AM »
Many oil alternatives work great as marginal products but have big problems in transferring to real mass products.

What I see as the single greatest hurdle in getting the country(and world) off of Oil is that the infrastructure all around is based around oil/petroleum.

Cars are mostly oil and petroleum based. There are hundreds of thousands of gasoline/petro stations around the US, and changing out all that infrastructure would cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions. I'm doubting that the Big Oil corps are all that interested in footing that bill, much less the money-less Federal government.

Cars are mostly oil and petroleum based. There are millions of gasoline/petroleum powered vehicles in the United States. While electric cars are coming onto the market, not only are they cost-prohibitive... but who's going to provide the vehicles for the poor amongst us? They still work, and have to drive to work. They can't afford an absurdly priced electric vehicle, and if oil/petro is 'banned' in the US, you're leaving a LARGE chunk of the blue collar and service industry unemployed.

Frankly, if the rich and elite who are decrying the use of oil(re: Worthless Hollywood types) can't put their money where their mouths are and help foot the enormous bill the change would entail, then they're not much more than hypocrites. The same goes for a lot of things that these hypocrites crusade about(ie: Health Insurance).

I'm all for making changes to get us off of foreign oil, however the ideas being thrown around are just strategy and tactics. A true general is not a master of strategy and tactics, but logistics.

Problem is, right now, we don't have the logistics available to make any meaningful change.

Offline Serephino

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #36 on: July 15, 2010, 08:44:43 PM »
That's a good point.  I do what I can, like take short showers, combine trips, and so on, but I drive a crappy 4 cylinder station wagon that gets about 18mi/gallon.  I don't know if I'd want an electric car, but I do want a more fuel efficient one.  However, that costs money I don't have. 

Offline Zakharra

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #37 on: July 15, 2010, 11:52:36 PM »
What I see as the single greatest hurdle in getting the country(and world) off of Oil is that the infrastructure all around is based around oil/petroleum.

Cars are mostly oil and petroleum based. There are hundreds of thousands of gasoline/petro stations around the US, and changing out all that infrastructure would cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions. I'm doubting that the Big Oil corps are all that interested in footing that bill, much less the money-less Federal government.

Cars are mostly oil and petroleum based. There are millions of gasoline/petroleum powered vehicles in the United States. While electric cars are coming onto the market, not only are they cost-prohibitive... but who's going to provide the vehicles for the poor amongst us? They still work, and have to drive to work. They can't afford an absurdly priced electric vehicle, and if oil/petro is 'banned' in the US, you're leaving a LARGE chunk of the blue collar and service industry unemployed.

Frankly, if the rich and elite who are decrying the use of oil(re: Worthless Hollywood types) can't put their money where their mouths are and help foot the enormous bill the change would entail, then they're not much more than hypocrites. The same goes for a lot of things that these hypocrites crusade about(ie: Health Insurance).

I'm all for making changes to get us off of foreign oil, however the ideas being thrown around are just strategy and tactics. A true general is not a master of strategy and tactics, but logistics.

Problem is, right now, we don't have the logistics available to make any meaningful change.

 It's more than just the cars. A huge amount of our civilization has something to do with oil. From the plastics, to medicines, stuff for food, clothing. you name it, oil is probably a part of the process somewhere.

 Even with vehicals, there's the trucks, trains, ships and palnes that move with oil based fuels. Transporting everything we eat, wear, use and consume.

  Sidenote: I would say a true general uses strategy, tactics and logistics. Someone who is an excellent strategist and tactician can and will beat you even if you got the best logistics in the world. If your tactics and strategy suck, you're not going to win.

Offline Bayushi

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2010, 01:39:29 AM »
It's more than just the cars. A huge amount of our civilization has something to do with oil. From the plastics, to medicines, stuff for food, clothing. you name it, oil is probably a part of the process somewhere.

 Even with vehicals, there's the trucks, trains, ships and palnes that move with oil based fuels. Transporting everything we eat, wear, use and consume.

Our very roads are composed of oil/petroleum products as well. Very little of today's modern world is not touched by oil in some fashion.

I used cars as a base example. It goes beyond just the United States, or even the 'First world'. Developing nations are starting to build up their economies, and much of that is done on the backbone of oil. India, for instance, recently(within the past two years, iirc) began to sell the Tata Nano. According to Wikipedia:
[The] Tata Nano is a rear-engined, four-passenger city car built by Tata Motors, aimed primarily at the Indian market. It is the cheapest car in the world today. The car has a fuel efficiency of around 26 kilometres per litre (73 mpg-imp; 61 mpg-US) on the highway and around 22 kilometres per litre (62 mpg-imp; 52 mpg-US) in the city.

Sidenote: I would say a true general uses strategy, tactics and logistics. Someone who is an excellent strategist and tactician can and will beat you even if you got the best logistics in the world. If your tactics and strategy suck, you're not going to win.

Not to nitpick, but I didn't come up with the idea. It's an actual quote, from a Russian(Soviet) WWII-era General. He mentioned this, I believe, after observing that the cold Russian winter breaking the German supply lines being the primary reason why the German advance was halted.

As for tactics and strategy defeating pure logistics, I disagree. That very same conflict mentioned just above proved otherwise. The Russians were well supplied and prepared for the winter. The Germans were not, even with their strategically-keen General(s) leading the advance. The Russians ability to hunker down and just plain survive is what pushed the Germans back. They couldn't survive without the logistics.

Move that train of thought forward, still involving the Soviets, but now the Cold War. NATO was massively out manned and outgunned in every possible aspect by JUST the Soviet Union's military. They had more aircraft, more missiles, more soldiers, more rifles.

But due to the poor logistical planning inherent in most centralized planning schemes(Hard-Socialist and Communist governments historically have this problem; see North Korea and Venezuela), they couldn't feed their civilian populace adequately, much less their massive military. The Chinese learned hard lessons from the Soviet failure, and have moved to a pseudo-Capitalist economy. Its central planning will eventually lead it to ruin, provided they do not move away from their top-down management style.

Logistics always has been, and always will be; more important than pure tactics and strategy. It doesn't matter how brilliant a tactic or strategy one has if one does not have the manpower and equipment available to carry out one's plans. Not to mention the very basic necessity of food.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Krugman declares this the Third Depression
« Reply #39 on: July 16, 2010, 01:58:44 AM »
 By then the Soviets had the tactics and strategy to go with their logistics. They had generals that knew what they were doing, and  Stalin let them live to do it.  So it's more than logistics that defeats a military force.