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Author Topic: Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Episode 3 [Villagers Win]  (Read 41692 times)

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Offline mannik

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #775 on: June 03, 2009, 06:56:00 AM »
You've said that already, and yes that may be true. Every time you roll a dice it has the exact same chance(1:6 for a six sided die) of comming up with any particular number...but at the same time, every time that particular number comes up the likelyhood of it being the same decreases. (1:6 chance for any number, but 1:12 chance that it will be the same twice in a row)
 
Statistical probability is a weird thing and difficult to explain.
 
Luckily I do not base my oppinon on that alone. She has also shown with her actions that she would rather stand by villagers rather than let them be lynched, which is something I doubt a wolf would do.

Offline XillenTopic starter

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #776 on: June 03, 2009, 07:06:36 AM »
but at the same time, every time that particular number comes up the likelyhood of it being the same decreases. (1:6 chance for any number, but 1:12 chance that it will be the same twice in a row)

Yes, of course the chance of someone being a Werewolf twice in a row is smaller. And if the roles for last game weren't made public yet, the chance of someone being a Werewolf in both the games is smaller than someone only being a Werewolf in one of the games.

However, Greenthorn being a Werewolf last game is a given, so that no longer influences the probability on the remaining possible options.

Statistical probability is a weird thing and difficult to explain.

No, it's not. It's just a lot about removing the irrelevant information from the picture.

Offline Greenthorn

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #777 on: June 03, 2009, 09:05:27 AM »
Marguerite is giving out false information.  The seer is a male.  you all quickly forgot the Marguerite was heading the lynching party for Ryi..who was -not- a werewolf!

Offline Dim Hon

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #778 on: June 03, 2009, 09:10:27 AM »
... GT, I was the one who named Ryie first in yesterday's lynching. I was wrong, and I'm not proud of it, but it was me who said it was Ryie first. You're really grabbing at straws!

Offline mannik

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #779 on: June 03, 2009, 09:18:04 AM »
Quote
However, Greenthorn being a Werewolf last game is a given, so that no longer influences the probability on the remaining possible options.

that makes no sense...because it is known she was a werewolf last game means laws of statistical probability no longer apply?
 
I can see a dice roll a six and know it is a six. That doesn't change anything in terms of probability. There is still a higher chance that it will be something different on my next roll.
 
The only way I see that working is if you used an entirely different scheme to choose who was what. (For instance, rolling a dice for each player and the 6 highest are the WW for one game and the next game you roll again but use the 6 lowest...just an example, I have no idea what you actually did.)
 
Marguerite is giving out false information.  The seer is a male.  you all quickly forgot the Marguerite was heading the lynching party for Ryi..who was -not- a werewolf!

You shouldn't have said that...give NO clues to the identity of important individuals. If Marg was giving out fals information about such thing GOOD...it protects them from harm.
 
 

Offline Greenthorn

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #780 on: June 03, 2009, 09:29:40 AM »
*sighs*

I braided the next rope...

I shall laugh when you all get eaten by the red dragon!

Offline Scott

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #781 on: June 03, 2009, 09:47:21 AM »
GT can say anything she wants, it wasn't a direct quote.

Offline Marguerite

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #782 on: June 03, 2009, 09:53:48 AM »
*sighs*

I braided the next rope...

I shall laugh when you all get eaten by the red dragon!

I will laugh my ass off if you are a wolf GT. You just have to take the fact that you have been vocal and vocal and trying to find out who are the important players. Why do you want to know who are the important players?

Offline Yomamaween

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #783 on: June 03, 2009, 09:57:13 AM »
Marg has started me on some very pursuasive information.  She has rarely been wring when talking to me...I see her predictions as very strong

I'm so sorry Greenthorn  The cards against you are stacked...

Offline Marguerite

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #784 on: June 03, 2009, 10:05:41 AM »
You shouldn't have said that...give NO clues to the identity of important individuals. If Marg was giving out fals information about such thing GOOD...it protects them from harm.

Look at GT, she is grasping so hard to throw down lies because she is a wolf, though she may have been a wolf last time, we all have a possibility to be a wolf but she is one.

Offline Greenthorn

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #785 on: June 03, 2009, 10:27:43 AM »
Look at GT, she is grasping so hard to throw down lies because she is a wolf, though she may have been a wolf last time, we all have a possibility to be a wolf but she is one.

Err I never said anything about being a wolf last game making me less likely to be a wolf this game.  That's all Mannik  ;)
I will laugh my ass off if you are a wolf GT. You just have to take the fact that you have been vocal and vocal and trying to find out who are the important players. Why do you want to know who are the important players?

I didn't say I wanted to know -who- they were.  I only asked Saffron if her info came -from- a seer or if she was choosing randomly...silly woman..pay attention! 

In no PM have I ever asked anyone who anyone else was.  I only gave correct information...


Offline Marguerite

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #786 on: June 03, 2009, 10:29:28 AM »
-Smirks-

We shall see, if you are a human when you die, I will mourn and vote in Josi or Desan for your vengenance. If not, well, then you were a wolf to begin and end with, GT.

-Nods-

Offline The Dark Raven

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #787 on: June 03, 2009, 10:36:37 AM »
*sighs*

I braided the next rope...

I shall laugh when you all get eaten by the red dragon!

Werewolves are Welsh now? O.O

Offline XillenTopic starter

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #788 on: June 03, 2009, 10:42:04 AM »
Werewolves are Welsh now? O.O

I fail to see the relation...

*scratches head*

Offline Marguerite

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #789 on: June 03, 2009, 10:43:13 AM »
I think she said that to draw you out and put up the new votes, Xillen.

Offline mannik

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #790 on: June 03, 2009, 10:43:33 AM »
After a long conversation with Xillen about the nature and math behind randomality I have decided to change the reason why I am voting along with GT...
 
I'm doing it because the sky is purple and kittens are fuzzy...(how's that for random?)
 
I fail to see the relation...

*scratches head*

It has something to do with GT braiding the rope I think...

Offline XillenTopic starter

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #791 on: June 03, 2009, 10:44:53 AM »
Oh yeah, completely forgot that we hit a new page.

Remaining Players:
  • Greenthorn - 12 votes: Marguerite, Eden, Desan, Ryven, Josietta, Pianoman, Daylily, Ladysky, Elenisil, Galatine, Scott, Yomamaween
  • Desan - 2 votes: Dragoondawg, Elunari
  • Josietta - 2 votes: Greenthorn, Mannik
  • Yomamaween
  • Daylily
  • Emmaline
  • Ladysky
  • Pianoman
  • Marguerite
  • Galatine
  • Mannik
  • Scott
  • Eden
  • Dragoondawg
  • Elenisil
  • Elunari
  • Ryven

Not yet voted: Emmaline.

Remaining Roles:
  • 9 Peasants
  • 1 Hunter
  • 1 Alchemist
  • 1 Seer
  • 1 Guardian
  • 4 Werewolves
« Last Edit: June 05, 2009, 09:23:31 PM by Xillen »

Offline mannik

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #792 on: June 03, 2009, 10:47:24 AM »
Xillen, I changed my vote to Josi too...remember than conversation we just finished like two seconds ago?...that's how it all started.

Offline XillenTopic starter

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #793 on: June 03, 2009, 10:48:43 AM »
Xillen, I changed my vote to Josi too...remember than conversation we just finished like two seconds ago?...that's how it all started.

Man, I'm starting to fail here! :(

Offline Greenthorn

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #794 on: June 03, 2009, 10:49:31 AM »
*laughs*

Just do the lynching!

Offline mannik

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #795 on: June 03, 2009, 10:50:33 AM »
Its ok...judging by the size of that hammer, you can fix just about anything.  :P

Offline Greenthorn

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #796 on: June 03, 2009, 10:51:54 AM »
Its ok...judging by the size of that hammer, you can fix just about anything.  :P

I soooo took that as a non-pg-13 rated comment

*dies laughing*

Offline Marguerite

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #797 on: June 03, 2009, 10:52:10 AM »
-Chuckles and shakes head-

Offline XillenTopic starter

Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #798 on: June 03, 2009, 10:54:37 AM »
Its ok...judging by the size of that hammer, you can fix just about anything.  :P

I don't really get to wield a hammer like that. I'm prot as mainspec and holy as offspec ;)

Female Tauren Paladin pic is so worth it, though! (For those unknown to WoW, each race can only pick certain classes. The Tauren Paladin combination doesn't actually exist and would be completely against the lore!)

Offline Ryven

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Re: More Werewolves of Miller's Hollow (Day 4)
« Reply #799 on: June 03, 2009, 10:56:32 AM »
Oh really?  May we see the size of your hammer?  *wiggles eyebrows*