You've said that already, and yes that may be true. Every time you roll a dice it has the exact same chance(1:6 for a six sided die) of comming up with any particular number...but at the same time, every time that particular number comes up the likelyhood of it being the same decreases. (1:6 chance for any number, but 1:12 chance that it will be the same twice in a row)
Statistical probability is a weird thing and difficult to explain.
Luckily I do not base my oppinon on that alone. She has also shown with her actions that she would rather stand by villagers rather than let them be lynched, which is something I doubt a wolf would do.