Brexit

[gaggedLouise]

It sounds like it could be a slang term, but it was a predictive text error which I failed to spot! I can't think which word I was meaning to type - maybe bitter or hostile.

Haha, well, it did make me realize that some people indulge in the lovely gesture of posting a mini-portrait of what /first name/ is like - at Urban Dictionary! :) I'm guessing these people have friends with the name in question (or if it's their own name? perish the thought!!)

[gaggedLouise]

According to EU sources, May, Juncker and Tusk have agreed on a draft for an extension until 22 May - roughly the end of the Europarliament elections season. BUT to activate this (and escape a no-deal crash), the House of Commons must accept May's deal. This is going to be one tough cup of medicine for many people, both in the Commons and in the UK at large.

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-summit-delay-gbr-intl/index.html

Meanwhile, a people's petition to revoke Article 50 goes past one million names and crashes the servers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50

I'm not sure, but I think such an extension would leave open the possibility of revoking Art50 during its run (though this would require a new election and Corbyn coming into power: he refuses to rule out that option, too).

[Tamhansen]

There is no way you can get that sorted by the 22nd of May. Even if May were to announce elections today it'd be six weeks til the earliest date for elections, then two weeks to install, and then they'll need to find a pro revocation majority.

[gaggedLouise]

Apparently the band of EU leaders are beginning to realize that May's deal is highly unlikely to survive on another vote in the Commons -even if one tried to flush it down with the threat that (heavy Yorkshire voice) "you gotta drink this or it's a no-deal disaster, man, and ye already SAID you don't want a no-deal at any price, right??" 

For nearly three years, the EU has presented a united front on Brexit. But behind closed doors in tonight's eleventh-hour talks, that unity is being tested as European leaders tussle over a series of different scenarios, an EU diplomat tells CNN.

The reality is dawning on leaders that Theresa May's Brexit deal is highly unlikely to win a vote in parliament next week, the diplomat adds. So leaders are considering whether to set aside Donald Tusk's proposal to make an extension conditional on that vote, and instead build into the delay a contingency plan for when – not if – May's deal fails.

"Everybody has different views on how to proceed but the overall goal is to decide in the common interest of the EU," the diplomat says. "This discussion shows how crucial this question is for the European Union as a whole."

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-summit-delay-gbr-intl/index.html (update posted around 10.30 pm CET / 05.30 EST)

I wouldn't rule out that even if the extension is (likely) set to run to May or June, a loophole might be left open to allow another, longer extension to be added on to it later, if it should turn out necessary (but of course nobody's going to say that out this time around) :)

[Mechelle]

As the Speaker has already ruled it's against parliamentary procedure to put forward an unchanged deal again and again,  I am not sure how it can even get a vote let again a win for the government.
Anyway, the EU have agreed to delay Brexit until 22nd May if Parliament approve her withdrawal deal, not that we can see how this will happen, or 12th April if it fails.

I have just seen a strange rumour that May's speech last night, which caused so much political damage when she blamed the MPs and took no responsibility for her failures, was written by her husband, concerned to personally protect his wife, rather than by any member of her staff, who may have been more concerned about any political effects.

[gaggedLouise]

Yep, now they have a two-step delay plan: if the old deal won't pass, the deadline is moved to 12 April (and supposedly, by that time, some other deal or fix will have been found). This setup will still have to be accepted and voted into law in Parliament within the next few days (shouldn't be too difficult, I guess, but many MPs will feel disgusted with May personally now).

Mrs May just deflected a question (on live tv) from a reporter "Is this the final extension, or could there be a longer one in the future?". Obviously he wanted a hard pledge that there would be no more, but May just passed on that one, preferring instead to focus on the one he made just before: "Will we ever leave the EU?" (May: "Yes, I firmly believe we will"). :)

[Mechelle]

Mrs May just deflected a question (on live tv) from a reporter "Is this the final extension, or could there be a longer one in the future?". Obviously he wanted a hard pledge that there would be no more, but May just passed on that one, preferring instead to focus on the one he made just before: "Will we ever leave the EU?" (May: "Yes, I firmly believe we will"). :)

That is not too much of a surprise. She normally repeats the same meaningless answers - "Brexit means Brexit" like a demented dalek, whatevee question is asked.

[Kitteredge]

22nd of May. Is that the number of the times she's advanced her same proposal, or a date?

[gaggedLouise]

That is not too much of a surprise. She normally repeats the same meaningless answers - "Brexit means Brexit" like a demented dalek, whatevee question is asked.

Wasn't it "Brexit *is* Brexit"? 

[gaggedLouise]

22nd of May. Is that the number of the times she's advanced her same proposal, or a date?

I hope it's the second one. :)

[TheGlyphstone]

That is not too much of a surprise. She normally repeats the same meaningless answers - "Brexit means Brexit" like a demented dalek, whatevee question is asked.

BREXTERMINATE!!!

[gaggedLouise]

BREXTERMINATE!!!

I met a Brexiter from Exeter.

[Mechelle]

Good news and we are all safe as Uri Geller is using his telepathic powers to prevent Brexit. I don't know how well known he is in the wider world, but he was famous in Britain over thirty years ago for using his "telepathy" to bend spoons. More recently, he was a friend of Michael Jackson.

Only a cynic could think there is anything amiss here...


https://news.sky.com/story/uri-geller-tells-pm-i-am-going-to-stop-brexit-telepathically-11672961

[Oniya]

Uri-the-Spoonbender is at least moderately well known to those who follow stage magic.  I remember James Randi taking him on with a cereal box.

[Kitteredge]

Can he unbend the bananas?

[Humble Scribe]

Bravo

[Mechelle]

Although, despite what is reported in the USA, Brexit isn't really about white identity or supremacy,  the leading Brexiteers have seen fit to call themselves the Grand Wizatds!

[Mechelle]

I should have written "Grand Wizards" and here is a link. Apparently, it's all accidental.

https://www.thenational.scot/politics/thejouker/17526351.a-group-of-brexiteers-are-actually-calling-themselves-the-grand-wizards/

[Beorning]

That is not too much of a surprise. She normally repeats the same meaningless answers - "Brexit means Brexit" like a demented dalek, whatevee question is asked.

Heh. You know, it's a really lovely image: a Dalek spinning around, swinging its appendage and buzzing: "Brexit means Brexit! Brexit means Brexit! Brexit means Brexit!!!!" Thank you :)

Anyway, what I don't understand are those British MPs that are, apparently, demanding a no-deal Brexit. How come they believe it's a good idea..?

[Eye of Horus]

Anyway, what I don't understand are those British MPs that are, apparently, demanding a no-deal Brexit. How come they believe it's a good idea..?

They fall into three general camps:

1) the short-term politics players who want to align with the overly-simplistic “Out means out!” narrative to boost their popularity with voters (e.g. Boris Johnson)

2) the ideological fanatics who genuinely see a golden age of Rule Britannia in 20 years time and are too well-protected in the wealthy establishment echo-chamber to genuinely believe or care about the damage that will come first (sounds crazy but I bet this type are more common than you think)

3) the opportunists who themselves or their close associates stand to gain financially from an economic shock (e.g. Nigel Farage, who made his hedge fund buddies millions by shorting the pound on the night of the referendum).

[SidheLady]

They fall into three general camps:

1) the short-term politics players who want to align with the overly-simplistic “Out means out!” narrative to boost their popularity with voters (e.g. Boris Johnson)

2) the ideological fanatics who genuinely see a golden age of Rule Britannia in 20 years time and are too well-protected in the wealthy establishment echo-chamber to genuinely believe or care about the damage that will come first (sounds crazy but I bet this type are more common than you think)

3) the opportunists who themselves or their close associates stand to gain financially from an economic shock (e.g. Nigel Farage, who made his hedge fund buddies millions by shorting the pound on the night of the referendum).

I think it's far more simple than that.

We have had a goverment who dont seem to have understood the concept of negotiation and leaving the EU.

We have had the EU who also didn't want to negotiate and wanted to make it as painful as possible for the UK to leave.

A no-deal brexit simply means we trade on WTO rules, and set up any deals from a blank slate rather than this bad faith position both sides seemed to have attempted from.

[Eye of Horus]

I think it's far more simple than that. We have had a goverment who dont seem to have understood the concept of negotiation and leaving the EU.

No argument there...

We have had the EU who also didn't want to negotiate and wanted to make it as painful as possible for the UK to leave.

This I disagree with. The EU's stance has been clear since pretty much day one (and they have published all their policies and plans online), and aside from the obvious truth that they can't give better trade terms to an outsider than they do to their own member states, they have been pretty accommodating on all possible fronts (guaranteeing expat rights, co-operating with No Deal stopgaps, granting the extension). All this despite growing frustration at Parliament not being able to tell them what they want, UK negotiators trying to drive wedges between member states, and a sizeable chunk of their own citizens being opposed to giving us generous terms.

A no-deal brexit simply means we trade on WTO rules, and set up any deals from a blank slate rather than this bad faith position both sides seemed to have attempted from.

"Simply trading on WTO rules" though is terrible for UK businesses. Our exports would immediately be slapped with "third country" tariffs and other red tape, which would make them less competitive to sell. We would also see a relatively permanent uptick in the cost of imports, and while the treasury would receive money from tariffs, it would be offset by the economic shock of businesses losing money and consumers having to foot higher prices - and dropping all our import tariffs would be even worse, because WTO rules state that you have to treat everyone the way you treat your most favoured customer nation, and so we'd see UK industries go bust in the face of cheap foreign imports. And then there's the probable fall in the stock-markets and £ value to consider, and the likelihood that the trend of reduced external investment in the UK will continue (and if the Conservatives follow their usual pattern, that will mean more austerity misery for the people of the UK).

If you believe no-one else that No Deal is a bad idea, believe the business owners small and large who have skin in the game, and have been aggressively lobbying against it for over two years.

BREAKING NEWS - Theresa May has signalled that she will resign...if her Withdrawal Agreement is voted through. Of course, it's not even confirmed yet if the deal can be put before Parliament a third time.

And Parliament will vote tonight on a series of options to see if there is support for:

• Leaving with No Deal (just in case they need a third confirmation that no-one wants this...)
  
• Stay in the single market (presumably paying a "membership fee", and having to abide by EU rules that we can no longer vote on)
  
• Remain in the EEA and join EFTA (again with a membership fee)
  
• Not leaving without some sort of customs union
  
• The Labour model (which unless it is code for staying in the single market probably isn't practical)
  
• Revoke Article 50 on the day before UK leaves if No Deal is the only alternative (this is not a stupid proposal given that No Deal has been rejected twice, and I hope Labour will back it, but I have a feeling they won't)
  
• To hold a referendum on any withdrawal agreement (other option/s on the ballot TBC)
  
• A pause to negotiate a trade deal if No Deal happens (totally unrealistic)

[Tamhansen]

I think it's far more simple than that.

We have had a goverment who dont seem to have understood the concept of negotiation and leaving the EU.

We have had the EU who also didn't want to negotiate and wanted to make it as painful as possible for the UK to leave.

A no-deal brexit simply means we trade on WTO rules, and set up any deals from a blank slate rather than this bad faith position both sides seemed to have attempted from.

First of all, dealing on WTO terms is the worst of all worlds, this is why trade deals exist. Secondly, the EU has not had any reason to make it 'as painful as possible' that's just Brexiters shifting blame. The EU was clear from the beginning what was possible under the rules of the bloc. Rules by the way written under supervision of a British peer.

The shitstorm that Brexit has become is purely due to Brexiteer campaigners promissing things they knew could never happen, and then making people believe their bullshit so much that now they can't accept the unicorns don't exist.

And even now, people like Rupert Murdoch, Viscount Rothermere and Jacob Rees Mogg who need the EU gone so their tax evasion doesn't get stopped are telling people that Britain can have it all, and the negotiators are weak.

The negotiators aren't weak, they were asked to achieve the impossible.

[Mechelle]

Firstly, it is good to see Sidhe Lady contribute, and that we can have a proper discussion or conversation without abusing people with whom we disagree.

As Eye of Horus said in breaking news, Theresa May has said that she will resign at the end of this first phase of Brexit if it's completed. She hasn't given a date and the word "if" is quite important here, I am sure. However, this had had the effect of getting several prominent Brexiters such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and, apparently, Boris Johnson to support her deal, albeit reluctantly. The Democratic Unionist Party still don't support it, so I think the maths mean that it still won't get through, although you never know.

It doesn't say much for the moral character of Rees-Mogg when he is prepared to support a deal which he considered to be worse than staying in, just a few days ago, when the deal is unchanged, but the leadership is up for grabs if it passed. Today, in Parliament, Rees-Mogg was bizarrely criticising the education of his Conservative colleagues at rival public  (i.e. private!) schools compared to his own at Eton.

A nice headline in tomorrow's Metro newspaper - "Vote Brexit and I'll exit."

[Beorning]

Okay, so it seems that the British Parliament has rejected all of the eight options proposed... Now May wants them to vote on her version of the deal. The one they rejected two times already...

Seriously, this is madness. I've heard people say that, at this stage, the EU should just say "So we guess you're staying" and drop the whole matter... There's a point to that, I think.

At least, if the MPs can't decide, maybe they should allow for a second referendum?