Brexit

[Mechelle]

I was watching the speech on an upload to Youtube by The Sun - there are several different uploads of course, from various news outlets. Anyway, the commenting field for that one is so packed with morons it's a riot. 99.9% hard Brexiteers and many of them seem to think the speech does represent the Queen's personal wishes  and beliefs, and that she is willingly and enthusiastically getting behind Boris. "Once we're out of the clutches of the EU and are free, she will get to rule again!" one deuce wrote.

There was a rather weird take on this by Gerard Batten, the former leader of UKIP. Today is the anniversary of the Battle of Hastings in 1066, which resulted in the death of King Harold II and the conquest of England by William of Normandy.
If Harold had bided his time, the English could have repelled the invaders, as their supply chain would have been too stretched, true, and the tactics of the tired English army were poor as they came down from the higher ground. However, he says that at least King Harold was not surrounded by traitors, in what must be a reference to the present day. Actually, the army was tired as Harold had fought against his own brother Tostig and Harald Hardradi's Norsemen earlier in the year  (and Harold's own claim to the throne was dubious as he wasn't a member of the royal family), so the historical simile doesn't work.
History would have been very different if the English had won, but it's intriguing, to say the least, to see the former leader of a right wing party regard the current royal family as the descendants of foreign usurpers. Ironically, I do appreciate his point from another viewpoint entirely, and, even more ironically, someone on the comments to his tweet points out that the name Batten is of Norman heritage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GerardBattenUK/status/1183693658257842176

[gaggedLouise]

There was a rather weird take on this by Gerard Batten, the former leader of UKIP. Today is the anniversary of the Battle of Hastings in 1066, which resulted in the death of King Harold II and the conquest of England by William of Normandy.
If Harold had bided his time, the English could have repelled the invaders, as their supply chain would have been too stretched, true, and the tactics of the tired English army were poor as they came down from the higher ground. However, he says that at least King Harold was not surrounded by traitors, in what must be a reference to the present day. Actually, the army was tired as Harold had fought against his own brother Tostig and Harald Hardradi's Norsemen earlier in the year  (and Harold's own claim to the throne was dubious as he wasn't a member of the royal family), so the historical simile doesn't work.
History would have been very different if the English had won, but it's intriguing, to say the least, to see the former leader of a right wing party regard the current royal family as the descendants of foreign usurpers. Ironically, I do appreciate his point from another viewpoint entirely, and, even more ironically, someone on the comments to his tweet points out that the name Batten is of Norman heritage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GerardBattenUK/status/1183693658257842176

Very intriguing - and also (I'm sure you're well aware of this, Mechelle), the modern British royal lineage is mostly German. Queen Victoria and Prince Albert were basically German by blood, and for two generations after them, the crown princes married German women, making Elizabeth's father George VI a man of practically 100% German descent. :)

The Swedish royal family is even more heavily German, by the way - even if its founder was one of Napoleon's retired generals, who was recruited after we had kicked out the earlier loony German king. :)

[gaggedLouise]

Boris's team of negotiators and number crucnchers are working almost round the clock, together with their counterparts from Brussels and Ireland, to get some sort of deal ready, on the lines of Northern ireland remaining de jure part of the UK ciustoms zone, but de facto part of the EU customs union, and with a customs  line down the Irish sea. But even if they should get this through with the EU, it might still get turned down and stopped in the Commons by the DUP, just like the same NI party vetoed Theresa May's attempts at a critical summit in Brussels a year back. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/16/brexit-boris-johnson-races-the-clock-as-deadline-for-deal-looms-politics-live (running updates)

[gaggedLouise]

Aaaand...Boris just blinked. If there isn't a finished deal by Saturday (I suppose this means agreed with Brussels, not passed through parliament, but not 100% sure) he pledges to ask for an extension. And this is pretty much official: the Brexit secretary says such a letter will be sent if it were needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/boris-johnson-will-ask-eu-for-extension-if-no-brexit-deal-by-saturday

[Humble Scribe]

So now we have a deal, but I can't see it getting through parliament. It's exactly the same one the EU offered Theresa May a couple of years back - Northern Ireland effectively stays in the Customs Union. But then as now the DUP regard having different arrangements from the rest of the UK as a matter of principle and won't accept it. To get over that, May got the EU to accept all of the UK remaining in the Customs Union until "satisfactory" arrangements could be put in place that avoided a hard border in Ireland. That got voted down 3 times because the mechanism for transitioning away from it wasn't under UK control. So now we've come round in a circle again.
Then as now, the DUP won't budge, the opposition parties have no desire to help Boris out, and he fired 21 members of his own party. So he simply doesn't have the votes, unless he's willing to promise a second referendum/'confirmatory public vote' to get some former Tories and wavering Labour MPs on board, and I can't see that happening.
So now it's probably extension, general election, and see where we go.

On another note, I got interviewed about this for Swedish TV yesterday! They were hanging around Lambeth Bridge asking passers-by about Brexit.

[gaggedLouise]

So now we have a deal, but I can't see it getting through parliament. It's exactly the same one the EU offered Theresa May a couple of years back - Northern Ireland effectively stays in the Customs Union. But then as now the DUP regard having different arrangements from the rest of the UK as a matter of principle and won't accept it. To get over that, May got the EU to accept all of the UK remaining in the Customs Union until "satisfactory" arrangements could be put in place that avoided a hard border in Ireland. That got voted down 3 times because the mechanism for transitioning away from it wasn't under UK control. So now we've come round in a circle again.
Then as now, the DUP won't budge, the opposition parties have no desire to help Boris out, and he fired 21 members of his own party. So he simply doesn't have the votes, unless he's willing to promise a second referendum/'confirmatory public vote' to get some former Tories and wavering Labour MPs on board, and I can't see that happening.
So now it's probably extension, general election, and see where we go.

On another note, I got interviewed about this for Swedish TV yesterday! They were hanging around Lambeth Bridge asking passers-by about Brexit.

I'll be looking for you on SVT Play (if it was indeed the public-service channel and their news people)!

And yes, if the DUP won't budge, the opposition don't want to help Boris (understandable, when he's slapped Parliament in the face) while the Hard-Brexit Tories don't have a majority of their own (arguably there never was a hard Brexit majority among the British people), then it's back and full circle.

Ultimately the project is reeling because

1) what the Hard Brexiteers promised in the referendum, and what they have been driving at after 2016, seems to be a politically undeliverable promise

2) both of the leading parties were suffering from inner turmoil before Brexit even came on the table

3) the whole issue of Brexit has been too much for the political machinery of the UK, at least if it were fed in this way. It can't be digested in this way without beginning to tear the fabric apart, both the political fabric and the bonds that have held the different lands of the UK tied together for centuries

[gaggedLouise]

Jean-Claude Juncker has just proved himself (again) to be a senile old fool by standing side by side with Boris and bluntly announcing: now that there is a deal , there will be no extension whatsoever, it's this one this week or nothing. He has absolutely no Power or legal authority to make such a rule-out, it's a question for the chiefs of government of the EU countries, and they would almost certainly grant the UK an extension if it's needed.

Asked if he thought the deal would pass parliament, he said: “It has to.”

Then he added: Anyway, there will be no prolongation.

He went on: "We have concluded a deal. So there is not an argument for delay. It has to be done now."

Asked by another journalist if he would rule out an extension if Boris Johnson asked for that, Juncker replied:

I gave a brief doorstop with Boris Johnson ... half an hour ago and I was ruling out that there will be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal, we have a deal, and there is no need for prolongation. That is not only the British view; that is my view too.

Asked again if he would officially rule out an extension, he replied: "Yes. We have a deal. So why should we have a prolongation?"

But, as my colleague Jennifer Rankin points out, it is questionable whether, in practice, the EU27 would rule out another extension if the alternative were no deal.

Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode

Not surprising that Jean-Claude Juncker wants to quash talk of an extension. EU dearly wants Brexit over and done with.

In reality, if UK asked for delay, under Benn Act, hard to see that the EU would say no.

It's men like Juncker who have given Boris and Farage much of the munition they needed for their campaigns about the overweening, corrupt and ignorant EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live?page=with:block-5da86be18f08c78d1cb4e1b2#block-5da86be18f08c78d1cb4e1b2[/url]

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666

[Mechelle]

As you say, Louise, Juncker has no power to say there will be no extension. Ironically, Nigel Farage agrees with you, as he has said how angry he is that this unelected bureaucrat is trying to override the Benn Act! It's good to see a Brexiter supporting Parliament for once, although Farage's political existence relies on Brexit not being achieved, oddly enough, or what is the point of him?

The deal has no great difference from Theresa May's (I can only think that the EU did not want to be blamed for the failure of Brexit), and, like hers, still needs to get through the House of Commons. The Financial Times reckons it will lose by 318 votes to 321. The DUP are against it, but there are signs that many of the Conservative rebels, both both pro- and anti-EU, would support it. With such a close vote, anything could happen.

[gaggedLouise]

As you say, Louise, Juncker has no power to say there will be no extension. Ironically, Nigel Farage agrees with you, as he has said how angry he is that this unelected bureaucrat is trying to override the Benn Act! It's good to see a Brexiter supporting Parliament for once, although Farage's political existence relies on Brexit not being achieved, oddly enough, or what is the point of him?

Yep, even if Farage does want a No-deal Brexit, Juncker is like the last person he'd want to "help the UK" to get there, by crashing out. 

[gaggedLouise]

So BoJo told the ERG Hard Brexiteers that if the trade talks that are to follow after a "Boris/Juncker Deal" exit do not lead to where the UK government at the time want them - a deal that matches the visions of the Brexiteers - they could simply step out of the talks sometime in about a year from now- and thereby also declare that the original deal has been scrapped, leading to a No-Deal Brexit towards the end of 2020. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live?page=with:block-5da9b2a58f08993584c891b9#block-5da9b2a58f08993584c891b9

This is a "Trumpian solution", and I guess it shows just how unreliable Boris and the Hard-Brexit crowd really are.

[gaggedLouise]

So BoJo told the ERG Hard Brexiteers that if the trade talks that are to follow after a "Boris/Juncker Deal" exit do not lead to where the UK government at the time want them - a deal that matches the visions of the Brexiteers - they could simply step out of the talks sometime in about a year from now- and thereby also declare that the original deal has been scrapped, leading to a No-Deal Brexit towards the end of 2020. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live?page=with:block-5da9b2a58f08993584c891b9#block-5da9b2a58f08993584c891b9

This is a "Trumpian solution", and I guess it shows just how unreliable Boris and the Hard-Brexit crowd really are.

Edit: Boris hasn't gone down that road yet, but top Brexit people like John Baron and Dominic Raab are urging him to use that argument to win over the ERG for the vote, and they seem to see it as legally quite okay.

[Eye of Horus]

Letwin and co have put forward another amendment to prevent approval for Johnson's deal in the vote on Saturday being used to sidestep the Benn Act, and so strengthen the safeguards against No Deal (or at least, until the end of October):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-50098128

It also invites the government to put the deal forward as a bill rather than a simple vote, allowing it to be amended (for example, with a confirmatory referendum or a commitment to remaining in the EU customs union). This is risky for both sides - the government may pull the vote on their deal to stop it being amended, whereas the opposition would have to vote for the deal in principle before they could take a gamble on any amendments.

[Mechelle]

I have not been following this as closely as I might, or should, today, but my impression is that the Letwin amendment would be successful. Ten (?) Labour MPs have indicated they will vote for the Johnson deal; on the other hand, Phillip Hammond, the former Conservative Chancellor, has said he will vote against it.

Whatever happens, it will be close, so David Cameron's quip that irt should slip through as easily as a greased piglet looks unlikely, even though he should know all about greased piglets from his days in the Bullingdon Club.

[Mechelle]

I have been out most of the day and am a bit surprised nobody else has posted, but the outcome is that the Letwin amendment did indeed win, whereupon the government withdrew the vote on the deal.

As mandated under the law, Johnson sent a letter to the EU requesting an extension, although, in a typically childish move, he did not sign it, and sent another signed one asking for the opposite. The fact is, though, that he sent a letter which he said he would never send, in all his talk of "do or die."

Meanwhile, some pro-Brexiters were verbally amused by remainers to the horror of the right-wing press, who don't seem to be so upset when it's the other way round, and the DUP are threatening civil disobedience in Northern Ireland after Johnson's betrayal.

[gaggedLouise]

I have been out most of the day and am a bit surprised nobody else has posted, but the outcome is that the Letwin amendment did indeed win, whereupon the government withdrew the vote on the deal.

As mandated under the law, Johnson sent a letter to the EU requesting an extension, although, in a typically childish move, he did not sign it, and sent another signed one asking for the opposite. The fact is, though, that he sent a letter which he said he would never send, in all his talk of "do or die."

Meanwhile, some pro-Brexiters were verbally amused by remainers to the horror of the right-wing press, who don't seem to be so upset when it's the other way round, and the DUP are threatening civil disobedience in Northern Ireland after Johnson's betrayal.

"The Legend Lives On - J. Boris in THE BREXIT BETRAYAL!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnw8BEqAddU

I watched a chunk of the Commons debate live, including an outstanding speech by Keir Starmer (likely the best of the day) about what's behind Boris' plan and why it's not an acceptable one, but heard about the turnaround and the non-vote on the Brexit deal only a couple of hours later. Things certainly turned out very bad for Boris, and I'm wickedly pleased that he has finally been forced to humiliate himself and send the letter to the EU without getting anything in return, politically, for doing so. :) Cheers! :)

[TheGlyphstone]

(to the tune of Wonka's Welcome Song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mdibfWikaw

Boris Johnson, Boris Johnson
The amazing Brexiteer
Boris Johnson, Boris Johnson
Everybody give a sneer!

He's boorish and so immature
He barely can contain it
He has so much hypocrisy
There is no way to contain it
To contain it, to contain, to contain, to contain.

(musical interlude)

Boris Johnson, Boris Johnson
He's unable to admit defeat
Boris Johnson, Boris Johnson
His incompetence just can't be beat
The politician and the No Deal whiz
The dumbest guy who ever lived
Boris Johnson here he is!

[Humble Scribe]

I have been out most of the day and am a bit surprised nobody else has posted, but the outcome is that the Letwin amendment did indeed win, whereupon the government withdrew the vote on the deal.

Not quite - after the vote on the amendment, parliament approved the deal by acclaimation (how many people said 'Aye' vs 'Nay') without a count of votes being taken, but because the amendment said that this was no longer a final vote, it no longer counted as formal parliamentary approval.

As mandated under the law, Johnson sent a letter to the EU requesting an extension, although, in a typically childish move, he did not sign it, and sent another signed one asking for the opposite. The fact is, though, that he sent a letter which he said he would never send, in all his talk of "do or die."

Mind you, he did the same with Brexit - writing two articles saying the opposite of each other, and only publishing one of them.
My take is that the EU will not push matters for a week or so to see if Johnson can get his deal approved by parliament and the legislation passed, during which time they will be "considering" the letters, and then if it looks like things are stuck, they will say that they are treating the letter as a request for an extension and give one, whether BoJo wants one or not. But I don't rule out that he might yet get the thing through parliament.

Of course, everyone calls it a deal, but in reality it's only a withdrawal agreement, so aside from the Irish issue, I don't think it's especially problematic. The real fight will be over what kind of trade arrangement will replace the current one, and negotiations on that are yet to begin. 

[gaggedLouise]

According to CNN, who seem to have been looking closely at all the letters/mails on this, Boris did state in the second (signed) letter to the EU leaders that the EU were now free to give the UK an extension of three months or whatever length of time they liked - so he recognizes the validity, even though he is going on about how unfair and corrosive an extension would be. The UK:s EU ambassador (UKREP) also sent a separate letter to the EU where he declared that Whitehall was complying with the Benn Act.

He also hammered home that this was the will of Parliament, not the Prime Minister himself. "While it is open to the European Council to accede to the request mandated by Parliament or to offer an alternative extension period, I have made clear since becoming Prime Minister... that a further extension would damage the interests of the UK and our EU partners, and the relationship between us."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/20/uk/brexit-analysis-mcgee-intl-gbr/index.html

So it looks fairly clear that 10 Dowing Street did make a legally valid bid for an extension last night. BoJo's prancing and "I didn't sign it" routine is just cheap political theatre (and I don't agree with CNN:s McGee that it spelled some sort of hidden triumph for Boris)

[Mechelle]

Yes, I think saw Donald Tusk had acknowledged receipt of the unsigned request for an extension, without mentioning the other letters.

There was also something about Johnson having plans to criminalise politicians who colluded with a foreign power. Although this is aimed at remainers, it would first catch the extremist Brexiters who were trying to encourage the right wing government in Hungary to veto a Brexit extension.
I get the impression Humble Scribe is quite knowledgeable on the law" so it would be interesting to say their view on this.

[gaggedLouise]

Timothy Garton Ash on Brexit, Britain vs Europe and Boris' deal in the Guardian. Really good essay, and the opening alone should become a classic:

Granted, Brexit is driving everyone mad. We Brits owe all our European friends a sincere apology, a bottle of whisky and complimentary tickets to a Royal Shakespeare Company performance of Hamlet. For Britain is now Hamlet, forever agonising over whether Brexit is to be or not to be.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/europe-fed-up-brexit-best-stay-in-macron-extension

[Oniya]

So, I heard today that someone spotted a Welsh-language 'Get ready for Brexit' ad at a bus stop.

In Aberdeen.

[gaggedLouise]

So, I heard today that someone spotted a Welsh-language 'Get ready for Brexit' ad at a bus stop.

In Aberdeen.

"Coming Soon to a Customs Office Near You"?

[Humble Scribe]

There was also something about Johnson having plans to criminalise politicians who colluded with a foreign power. Although this is aimed at remainers, it would first catch the extremist Brexiters who were trying to encourage the right wing government in Hungary to veto a Brexit extension.
I get the impression Humble Scribe is quite knowledgeable on the law" so it would be interesting to say their view on this.

You're very kind, but pretending to sound authoritative about something while only having read a couple of articles online as background is an essential skill in my profession (journalist), so please don't take anything I say as being any more reliable than anyone else.

FWIW, I think the "collusion with a foreign power" nonsense was a bit of spin that flew out of Dominic Cummings' mouth a couple of weeks ago, certainly doesn't refer to any existing law, nor one I could ever imagine being passed, and so I think can be safely ignored.

[gaggedLouise]

Expect mutiny, further defeats for Boris and a broken time frame as the more clearly "legalesed" version of the Boris Deal goes up for debate in the Commons tomorrow.  And with that in mind: almost certainly an extension granted by the EU, for a couple of months, perhaps six months,  :)

[Mechelle]

You're very kind, but pretending to sound authoritative about something while only having read a couple of articles online as background is an essential skill in my profession (journalist), so please don't take anything I say as being any more reliable than anyone else.

FWIW, I think the "collusion with a foreign power" nonsense was a bit of spin that flew out of Dominic Cummings' mouth a couple of weeks ago, certainly doesn't refer to any existing law, nor one I could ever imagine being passed, and so I think can be safely ignored.

Haha, it is an important skill for a politician as well as a journalist to be able to wing it and sound authoritative without giving an answer.
Unfortunately, Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay failed to achieve this when he had to "clarify" his earlier statement and admit that goods exported from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom would actually require paperwork in the form of an export declaration.
It is very curious - the right wing "unionist" press in mainland Britain hardly mentions these problems, in general terms, while their Northern Irish equivalent screams of betrayal.

Meanwhile, the UK parliament, to the distress of the Democratic Unionist Party, has legalised abortion and same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland, as the Northern Ireland Parliament is suspended. The DUP to like be aligned with the rest of the United Kingdom, but only when it suits.


  https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/107450/northern-ireland-firms-will-have-complete-export-forms