Werewolf 3; VILLAGERS WIN!!

[Mintprincess]

Why I voted for Vera? She and Cera had banter that made me eye them both as suspicious, and my suspicions over people I believed to be innocent are a better choice to me.

Obviously I was wrong in my suspicions but so plays the game.

I rest my case. 

Thus I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into anything you've said regarding myself or Aiden or anyone else right now, and I'm far more likely to lean on those who have been talking to me about the direction we should be going. 

If I had to vote at this moment based on what I said, I would vote Myobi. I thought it was clear I was leaning that direction and just didn't make it official.  I've had a number of people tell me the exact thing I said about people following the sheriff. That wasn't some 'on the fly made up excuse that came from Mint.

I explained my reasoning for Amber, which was more than agreed on by a number of players who told me as such.  If you didn't agree you should have said so before.   I still stand by my decision that a near-vetted-wild-card distraction. (Oh wait Aiden??) isn't helpful for team village. 

It takes the focus from the real culprits. 

[KatKwik]

Looks around at all the villagers...There was a heated discussion and deliberation was needed.

Villagers keep dying and someone should take the blame, but a scapegoat wasn't the way forward.

I'll be deliberating for now because people are starting to make some good observations.

With two dead villagers, it's clear the town is a dangerous place and killing off another villager seems counter productive.

[Rel Mayer]

For now, I'm sticking by my vote for Saffron. I understand the suspicions behind Myobi, but even if Saffron turns up as a villager--I'm thinking she may be the wolfman.

[Seranova]

Okay, without revealing actual roles, for the safety of those that actually have special roles of whom I am about to mention, these are the people that I trust are on team village to a varying degree of certainty. If I give the full list of reasons, it will give away too much to the wolves, so some of this is gonna have to go on faith. These people at least started on village, but as has been pointed out, cannot be guaranteed have not been turned. Even so, only one of which tops can be.

Mintprincess
Aiden
Remiel
Madame Professor
NightOwl35
Seranova
Rel Mayer
Derwaysh

Now, for those whose immediate thought is, "Oh, this is a werewolf trying to steer people away from other wolves," I admit, that it's entirely possible. But it's a pretty risky play for me to call clear on just about half the remaining people in play if I were a wolf. Aiden particularly seems to be a sore spot for a lot of players, but the circumstances regarding his alleged attack was, in fact, backed up by the only person to have claimed the healer. This person didn't claim the bodyguard, which was already (unbeknownst to them) claimed by another. Here's the night order as far as I've been able to piece together so far:

On night 1: the bodyguard protected Mint, who was not the wolves' target. The healer was notified that Aiden was the target, and his true affiliation. The healer decided to use their power, then reached out to Aiden to inform them that they were saved.

On night 2: Someone was turned. Aiden was a possible choice, given that he was vetted on night 1. But it also seems the obvious choice. It's a risky play, but still entirely possible.

On night 3: We lost Cera. Saffron had thought Cera to be shady. Was this a wolf trying to cast shade on an innocent player? Again, possible. But it seems like a bad wolf play to immediately turn around and kill her off. Saffron was also viewed by the seer night 1 and at least shows as a villager. She could be the wolfman, yes. But I can't account for whether it was just a mistake to cast shade on Cera only to take her out immediately.

So, Saffron goes in the 50% trust category as her own standalone for the moment.

I would also like to mention that on this list is the player who has claimed lycan. They were, in fact, viewed by the seer on night 2, and did come up as wolf. Why am I including them on this list, then? For reasons I can't delve into at this moment, I am actually inclined to trust them. It is on them if they want to reveal who they are.

TLDR; All that being said, and I know this is going to sound like a broken record for me, but I really feel like the loudest of us are mostly team village, and at least the bulk of the wolves are just whistling in corners and snickering while we turn on each other. Is Saffron a wolf? Possible. Myobi? Bane? Again, possible. But I would rather turn my attention towards the more quiet people once more. Those that, even if posting, haven't really contributed much towards team village, or have contributed in ways to hurt team village. Are we going to perfectly lynch wolves from here on out? Probably not. But this is, I believe, a step in the right direction.

Given the evidence I have to go on, I am calling out a vote for Yugi.

[Autumn Sativus]

Perhaps the Seer should check Myobi. You can't have two wolfmen.

[Rel Mayer]

Perhaps the Seer should check Myobi. You can't have two wolfmen.

They would show up as village, not the role. Unless you are saying that you're both wolves, and one of you is the wolfmen.

[Autumn Sativus]

I'm saying two villagers, cannot both be wolfmen. It kind of invalidates your theories that we're both wolves, if we both are human.

[Derwaysh]

Sera; you're on to something here. As a firm believer in steps in the right direction, I hereby second your motion to lynch Yugi as well.

[yugi006]

I will gladly be the sacrifice to help root out the wolves but you guys will be wasting a day getting me lynched. In the event that I do end up being lynched I asked that the priest save his or her power and not waste it on me.

[Seranova]

I will gladly be the sacrifice to help root out the wolves but you guys will be wasting a day getting me lynched. In the event that I do end up being lynched I asked that the priest save his or her power and not waste it on me.

The only reason I can think to specifically ask the priest not to confirm your role is if you're actually the wolfman.

[Remiel]

On night 3: We lost Cera. Saffron had thought Cera to be shady. Was this a wolf trying to cast shade on an innocent player? Again, possible. But it seems like a bad wolf play to immediately turn around and kill her off.

Agreed.  I would even go so far as to say someone's trying to set Saffron up.

Granted, there is the Wolfman out there, so we can't ever be 100% sure, but I always like to play the odds.  I would rather not put Saffron up on the lynching block unless there is no alternative.

[yugi006]

The only reason I can think to specifically ask the priest not to confirm your role is if you're actually the wolfman.

The reason I ask the priest to not use his or her powers is that it is still early in the game. With so many people still around using the priest power would be a total waste. The power should be saved for later when a single vote will actually more than it does now. Saving someone this early only helps the wolves.

[Remiel]

That's pretty selfless of you, Yugi.  If it were me, I would be yelling, "Yes, Priest! Use your power! Save me! Do it! Do it!"

[Seranova]

The reason I ask the priest to not use his or her powers is that it is still early in the game. With so many people still around using the priest power would be a total waste. The power should be saved for later when a single vote will actually more than it does now. Saving someone this early only helps the wolves.

Saving someone never helps the wolves. At the very least, it creates a completely vetted person that they are forced to waste a night killing, rather than looking for a special role to try and kill. Otherwise, the village has another person that can be completely trusted to rally behind. Especially since the Alpha power has most assuredly already been used.

[Mintprincess]

That's pretty selfless of you, Yugi.  If it were me, I would be yelling, "Yes, Priest! Use your power! Save me! Do it! Do it!"

-ROFL- Yes, yes you would. No matter what team you were on

Agreed.  I would even go so far as to say someone's trying to set Saffron up.

Granted, there is the Wolfman out there, so we can't ever be 100% sure, but I always like to play the odds.  I would rather not put Saffron up on the lynching block unless there is no alternative.

I've been saying that she was village, based on the vetting, and that while it isn't 100% I'm not ready to lynch on the 1/16 odds that when she was looked at she was the wolfman.   You mentioned occam's razor, Remi.  The simpliest solution is the obvious one.  She vetted Village. She's village. At least until something proves otherwise.   That is why I leaned Vera last round, because we had no data on her.  We have some on Saffron.   

I'm with Sera on this one. I don't at all understand why you wouldn't want to be vetted if you were village. 

[yugi006]

That's pretty selfless of you, Yugi.  If it were me, I would be yelling, "Yes, Priest! Use your power! Save me! Do it! Do it!"

I would if it was later in the game with things narrowed down more but we still have a lot of villagers to sift through so it wouldn't help to use the priest's power now.

Saving someone never helps the wolves. At the very least, it creates a completely vetted person that they are forced to waste a night killing, rather than looking for a special role to try and kill. Otherwise, the village has another person that can be completely trusted to rally behind. Especially since the Alpha power has most assuredly already been used.

This early in the game it would most certainly help the wolves. I doubt that if this happened the wolves would waste a night killing the person who was just vetted especially since the bodyguard can just protect that person.

The point I'm trying to make is that there are still too many players right now and even if one person is saved at this point you still have to figure out everyone else which would work later in the game when things are narrowed down.

Plus if you want to advocated using the priest power so early why not use it when Amber or Vera where on the lynching block?

I think the power should be saved for when we need it most and now is not the time to use it.

[Remiel]

You mentioned occam's razor, Remi.  The simpliest solution is USUALLY the obvious one. 

Fixed that for ya.

[Mintprincess]

^^^^^ Fair enough    

[yugi006]

The only reason I can think to specifically ask the priest not to confirm your role is if you're actually the wolfman.

Actually I'm wondering if the priest used his or her power on a Wolfman or Lycan what would happen? Would it reveal what they actually are or how they are viewed in the eyes of the Seer. If it's the latter that would mean that the Wolfman would able to survive being lynched in this case as anyone revealed to be a villager will be saved since special roles aren't revealed.

[Remiel]

But I'm with Sera on this one, especially since the wolves will most likely now be looking to take out all of the people on his list.    Since we no longer have the veil of anonymity, we need to take the brute-force approach now, and, as such, the Priest should definitely use their ability tonight, no matter who is put up on the lynching block.  If we do, sooner or later we'll find all the wolves through sheer process of elimination.

Yugi--as far as I know, the Priest is the only role in the game that will be able to reveal someone's "true" affiliation.  That is, the Lycan will be revealed as innocent (whereas they would show up as a Werewolf to the Seer or when killed) while the Wolfman would be revealed as evil (while showing up as human to the Seer or when killed).

[Mintprincess]

Actually I'm wondering if the priest used his or her power on a Wolfman or Lycan what would happen? Would it reveal what they actually are or how they are viewed in the eyes of the Seer. If it's the latter that would mean that the Wolfman would able to survive being lynched in this case as anyone revealed to be a villager will be saved since special roles aren't revealed.

I'm pretty sure the priest reveals the actual.  This is the only way to vet a wolfman or a lycan.  AKA, a wolfman would want to die for their team without being vetted as a wolf. 

[Autumn Sativus]

Oh shit does it really? SAVE ME PRIESTY I AM NOT THE WOLFMAN!

[Derwaysh]

Plus if you want to advocated using the priest power so early why not use it when Amber or Vera where on the lynching block?

Because they were suspicious for one reason or another (ones we have gone through in great detail). And from what I'm getting, you're saying you're perfectly fine with people being suspicious of you as well?

I'm inclined to agree with Remiel here that if this was my life on the line, irrespective of whether I was town-Julian or wolf-Julian I'd still offer all the reasons why I shouldn't be lynched.

[yugi006]

I'm pretty sure the priest reveals the actual.  This is the only way to vet a wolfman or a lycan.  AKA, a wolfman would want to die for their team without being vetted as a wolf.

Well the Wolfman and Lycan are both special roles so if the priest reveals the actual affiliation you won't know if that person is a Lycan or Wolfman.

Because they were suspicious for one reason or another (ones we have gone through in great detail). And from what I'm getting, you're saying you're perfectly fine with people being suspicious of you as well?

I'm inclined to agree with Remiel here that if this was my life on the line, irrespective of whether I was town-Julian or wolf-Julian I'd still offer all the reasons why I shouldn't be lynched.

Well right now some of you are are the same way with me so the priest power should have been used on one of them if this is your argument.

The problem with that is I have none. I haven't contacted anyone via pms nor have I formed any alliances with anyone so all I have is what I have said and done in game which is voted fro two people who ended up being villagers. So defending myself would be pointless cause I won't be able to.All I can say is that I'm a villager.

[Autumn Sativus]

1. Rel Mayer
2. Seranova
3. Mintprincess
5. Remiel
6. Madame Professor
9. Verasaille
11. Ceralilly
13. Aiden
14. AmberStarfire
16. Saffron!
18. Derwaysh
19. Esoteric Myobi
20. NightOwl35
----
4. yugi006
7. SunshineSparkle
8. Intimate Ink
10. KatKwik
12. Christa
15. EmyKat
17. Deamonbane

Given that obviously I believe myself and Myobi to be villagers, the lower is the short list of potential wolves for me, if I choose to believe that what Sera has to say is correct. A number of those people show up on my suspicious list as it is. Though I'm not entirely sure if I think yugi is a guilty party just yet, I do believe EmyKat is an innocent right now, which narrows my list to removing one single soul.

I think it might be time to get out the spreadsheets.

I'd like to hear more from Christa and Sunshine, though, on their quietness.