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Author Topic: In your honest opinion, who do you think has the best chance of becoming POTUS?  (Read 26636 times)

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Offline Beguile's Mistress

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At the moment Clinton has 2383 delegates and Sanders 1569 with 813 still in play.  These candidates' numbers include super delegates.  Were Sanders to win every one of the remaining delegates he would have on 2382 and would need to begin wooing super delegates to his side.  Since each candidate will accrue the percentage of delegates matching their portion of the popular vote in some states Sanders chances are virtually nil.

Offline CuriousEyes

At the moment Clinton has 2383 delegates and Sanders 1569 with 813 still in play.  These candidates' numbers include super delegates.  Were Sanders to win every one of the remaining delegates he would have on 2382 and would need to begin wooing super delegates to his side.  Since each candidate will accrue the percentage of delegates matching their portion of the popular vote in some states Sanders chances are virtually nil.

To add to this, Clinton would win outright with 70% of the remaining pledged delegates - again statistically unlikely/impossible, but still. I suspect we'll see closer to a 50/50 split overall, which puts her in the 2200 pledged delegate range and would require Sanders to flip almost every superdelegate.

Offline Cycle

You actually touched on something here that I think is worth mentioning. I'm not sure how the delegate math stacks up today; if Sanders wins every single primary today, will be have more pledged delegates than Hillary?

According to RealClearPolitics this morning, the breakdown is:

Total Delegates: 4,763
Total Superdelegates: 712
Total Pledged Delegates: 4,051

Clinton has 1,812 Pledged Delegates.
Sanders has 1,521 Pledged Delegates.
There are 694 Pledged Delegates up for grabs today.

For Sanders to exceed Clinton's total Pledged Delegate count, he will need to win 493 of the Pledged Delegates available today.  In other words, just "winning" all six states is not enough.  He will need to win 71% to her 29% in those states.  That probably won't happen and if it doesn't, then Sanders will not have a lead in Pledged Delegates today (there's still 20 left for DC in a week, so maybe that can change things).

Also, if you remove all of the Superdelegates, a candidate only needs 2,026 Pledged Delegates to win a majority (half of 4,051 rounded up)--not 2,382.  Clinton has 1,812 Pledged Delegates, so she only needs to win 214 more to secure a majority.  That means she only needs to win 31% of the Pledged Delegates available today.  Sanders can win the other 69% and he'd still end up with fewer Pledged Delegates and whatever happens in a week in DC won't matter.

But the argument that we shouldn't count Superdelegates until the convention is over isn't consistent with how things have been done historically.  Indeed, in 2008, Sanders himself said Obama became the presumptive nominee once Obama's total Pledged and Superdelegates count to hit the magic number--Sanders did not contend that Superdelegates had to wait until the Convention to matter.

If he does, then what you said becomes null and void - he wins the popular vote, superdelegates will be acting against the people if they put Hillary over.

And if she has the lead in popular votes and Pledged Delegates, what then?  Sanders will be one acting against the people to put him over, which of course, shouldn't happen.  Even Sanders' campaign agrees with this.  Source and source.

What that implies, by any political yardstick, is that the Democratic Party is a right-wing party by default. And that's fine - a right-wing party should certainly have a right-wing candidate.

I don't believe this statement is correct.  Clinton and Sanders are closer on the issues than Clinton and Trump.  There are lots of sources to confirm this.  For example.  Yes, Clinton is more conservative than Sanders on defense but she still falls on the blue side compared to Trump.  In terms of social issues and support for the middle class, she's much closer to Sanders than Trump:  e.g., woman's right to choose, equal pay, minimum wage, taxes on the rich, supporting social programs, climate change, and medical insurance coverage.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2016, 05:59:58 PM by Cycle »

Offline elone

Of course all the super delegates will be up for grabs if Hillary is indicted. There has been a lot of speculation as to why the FBI is waiting so long to wrap this up. Some say it is because they want to wait until the primaries are over so as to not mews up the vote, but do it before the convention so she does not get the nod. Who knows. I think Bernie is counting on it, one of the reasons for him staying in the race.

Offline Cycle

Interesting piece from Politico about Sanders:

Quote
This isn’t about what’s good for the Democratic Party in [Sanders'] mind, but about what he thinks is good for advancing the agenda that he’s been pushing since before he got elected mayor of Burlington.

Quote
There’s also the issue of payback. Campaign aides say that whatever else happens, Sanders wants former Congressman Barney Frank and Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy out of their spots as co-chairs of the convention rules committee. It’s become a priority fight for him.

Quote
[Sanders] likes that he’s been in front of almost a million people since the campaign started. But he knows that as soon as the campaign’s done, the crowds will start thinning, and he’s not going to get on television anymore. He’s certainly not running for president again.

Sanders knows the ride is about to stop—but he’s going to push it as far as he can before it does.

Offline CuriousEyes

I really do wonder what the exit strategy is at this point for Sanders. He's made so much noise about the convention and the process, but he must see the writing on the wall.

And really at this point I'm not sure he hasnt bitten more than he can chew wrt his supporters. There's so much anger with Clinton, I don't know he wouldn't disappoint them as a kind of betrayal of principles if he actively starts to campaign on her behalf.

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At this point, I think Bernie's exit strategy would be to win as many concessions towards himself and his supporters as he can before he bows out - which won't be until the convention proper.  He's already gotten some concessions - half the people who are crafting the Democratic platform are Bernie supporters, like Cornell West - and I would expect him to leverage for more.

As for what happens after the nomination, I would go with two things.  The more likely thing, I would say, is that he simply drops off the radar like a lot of the Republican runners did this year, and simply goes back to his Senate seat.  No campaigning, no speeches, nothing.  The other possibility would be that he does start stumping for Hillary - but if he does that, then I would wager that he would frame it as a 'by comparison' move.  Hillary may be bad, but Trump would be worse, essentially.

Personally, if he has to pick between the two, then I really hope that he takes the first option.  It at least allows him to retain his dignity and credentials as the people's champion.

Offline CuriousEyes

Third option would be that he work to encourage down ballot engagement in up-for-grabs states, with only nominal mention of Clinton at the top of the ticket. That might be the best course really, and would likely provide a passive boost to the Democratic Party at the top.

Offline GypsyRose

I found this an interesting read, though perhaps not surprising, given where it's coming from:

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/campaign/282877-how-washington-elitism-could-cost-clinton-the-election

I don't know if it's wishful thinking, but the only conclusion I can come to is that this is one sorry state of affairs, whichever wins.

And I'm going to feel pretty damn lousy come election day when I go to cast my vote.


Offline CuriousEyes

I found this an interesting read, though perhaps not surprising, given where it's coming from:

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/campaign/282877-how-washington-elitism-could-cost-clinton-the-election

I don't know if it's wishful thinking, but the only conclusion I can come to is that this is one sorry state of affairs, whichever wins.

And I'm going to feel pretty damn lousy come election day when I go to cast my vote.

I'm pretty sure I feel stupider for trying to read that. I'll let others discuss the actual... merits..  of the piece in more detail. But Idid want to drop this off for context.

Michael G. Grimm is a former member of Congress representing New York’s 11th District

"On April 28, 2014, Grimm was charged by federal authorities with 20 counts of fraud, federal tax evasion, and perjury.[3] On December 23, 2014, he pleaded guilty to a single count of felony tax fraud, and "acknowledged committing perjury, hiring illegal immigrants, and committing wire fraud".[4]"

Offline Cycle

« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 09:08:03 PM by Cycle »

Offline gaggedLouise

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Sanders' looks and way of speaking make me think of an old and opinionated university professor, a bit like the feared and imperious law professor Kingsfield in the movie The Paper Chase - but it's plain he's made a great connection with young people.

Of course, it's Obama who would have been one of Kingsfield's students at Harvard Law School.  :D

Offline TaintedAndDelish

I think Sanders definitely sees the writing on the wall. This statement about supporting Hillary didn't sound very optimistic. As for him getting in with the younger crowd, I'm not surprised. For them the word Socialism won't bring back memories of the cold war. They're too young to equate the word socialism with real examples of socialism gone wrong. As for Denmark being the "Happiest country in the world", that sounds a little too cliche to be true.  It smells of bullshit to me but probably sounds great to college students who are up to their ears in obscene student loans and are looking at trying to break into the work force. Try getting a job that will pay for those loans. lol


Offline Mithlomwen

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The thing that I don't understand....

I can't remember where I saw/read it (Found one), but they conducted a poll that pitted both Sanders and Clinton against Trump, and Sanders usually beats Clinton.

If everyone in Washington (and across the U.S.) are sincere in not wanting Trump as president....wouldn't it behoove them to go with the candidate that has a better chance of beating Trump, rather than force feeding the American public a candidate that has a pretty good chance of losing against him?

Offline Beguile's Mistress

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You would think that, wouldn't you?  The polls have been seriously out of focus this time around though.  It was predicted, according to the polls, that Clinton and Sanders were very close in the California race with a chance that he might come out ahead.  Clinton actually beat him by more than 10% of the total vote.


Online ReijiTabibito

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The thing that I don't understand....

I can't remember where I saw/read it (Found one), but they conducted a poll that pitted both Sanders and Clinton against Trump, and Sanders usually beats Clinton.

If everyone in Washington (and across the U.S.) are sincere in not wanting Trump as president....wouldn't it behoove them to go with the candidate that has a better chance of beating Trump, rather than force feeding the American public a candidate that has a pretty good chance of losing against him?

The short answer to why the DNC continues to back Hillary over Bernie, despite the polls, has to do with 2 things:
1 - Self-Interest
2 - Sunk Cost

To elaborate:

Hillary has been the presumptive nominee - the next Democratic presidential runner - for the last decade.  She never really ended her campaign to be President, she simply suspended it when it was clear that Barrack Obama was going to win the nomination.  Normally, that would be pretty much it for Clinton 2.0 - but Obama provided Hillary an extended life in the political arena by making her Secretary of State.  After Obama took office, all the news outlets basically started reporting the same thing - that Hillary would be the next presidential candidate from the Democrats after Obama's time was up.  This narrative, that Hillary is next, has been in the media for the entire eight years Obama has been held office.  The DNC and various left-aligned media outlets have invested a great deal of time and energy into making sure a Clinton is the next president, and they're not about to just bend over because some senator from Vermont with really popular ideas has sprung up in the middle of the road.

Furthermore, Hillary has ties to (and quite effectively represents) the big interests on Wall Street and with party insiders.  Wall Street does not want Bernie, because Bernie is actually going to stop the gravy train they've been enjoying since the Reagan years and insist on social responsibility on their part.  So pro-business Democrats - like Wasserman-Schultz and others - don't want a candidate that is going to alienate the people who 'helped' get them elected.  Moreover, Bernie is not actually a Democrat; he ran on the Democratic ticket because history has demonstrated that third party candidates - like Jill Stein and the Green Party - have enormous trouble getting traction within the voting populace thanks to the monolithic structures of the GOP and the Dems.

What happens within the next month or so - between now and the conventions - will determine whether or not Bernie gets to be the candidate.  The conditions for it require three things.

1: Trump has to start pasting Hillary in the polls.  And I mean badly.  Double-digit pastings, where Trump comes out 12, 15, 20, more percent ahead of Hillary.
2: The DNC has to actually believe the things they say about Trump.  (I don't actually believe that they do, and it's just the usual political banter for them)
3: The DNC has to be willing to give up some of what it wants to prevent a Trump presidency, because Bernie is not an establishment Democrat, he will not follow their script.

Offline Cycle

The thing that I don't understand....

I can't remember where I saw/read it (Found one), but they conducted a poll that pitted both Sanders and Clinton against Trump, and Sanders usually beats Clinton.

If everyone in Washington (and across the U.S.) are sincere in not wanting Trump as president....wouldn't it behoove them to go with the candidate that has a better chance of beating Trump, rather than force feeding the American public a candidate that has a pretty good chance of losing against him?

The polls that show Sanders beating Trump by more than Clinton beats Trump are generally not considered reliable.  (PolitiFact article.)  There are several reasons for this.  These polls are too far out.  When they were done, Clinton and Sanders were still vying to be the presumptive nominee while Trump had locked his slot.  And the Republicans have been intentionally not attacking Sanders (they believe they have a better chance to beat him in November so they want him to look stronger than Clinton).

More recent polling are showing that Clinton is regaining her lead against Trump:  RealClearPolitics data.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Some conservative republicans who are dead set against Trump are still looking for a candidate to make a third-party bid and, sort of, save the honour of the GOP by working from political exile. Mitt Romney says he's considered running on those terms but decided against it (he says he could vote for the libertarian candidate Gary Johnson though) while Ben Sasse (senator for Nebraska) might still be in talks about such a bid.

Back in February, Sasse wrote on Facebook that Trump behaves like he's thinking he would be running for king of the USA, not president. Spot on.

Offline Cycle



Clinton is so toast...



« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 07:55:07 PM by Cycle »

Online TheGlyphstone

I have no idea what i just watched, but I think you owe me a few IQ points.

Offline Beguile's Mistress

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Trump is a Pokemon?



Online Oniya

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Pokemon are cute, collectible, and have the potential to evolve. 

Offline Beguile's Mistress

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Well, that leaves Trump out.  He outgrew cute long ago and not even a cannibal would collect him.  As for evolution...yeah, no.

Online TheGlyphstone

Evolution? A fiendish lure of Satan's lies, of course.

Online ReijiTabibito

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I have no idea what i just watched, but I think you owe me a few IQ points.

I believe what we have just witnessed is the Magic, the Mystery, the Wonder...of Trump.