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Author Topic: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]  (Read 40345 times)

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Offline elone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #875 on: March 06, 2016, 08:46:14 AM »
Whether or not Bernie Sanders can be successful in getting all his ideas across is not the question. No presidential candidate will ever get all of his/her programs passed through a congress that is bought and paid for special interests and lobbyists. Personally I would rather have an honest candidate who believes in something than a candidate like Hillary Clinton who changes her mind constantly on major issues, is inherently dishonest, will do and say anything to get elected, and whose accomplishments as Secretary of State and as a Senator were minimal at best. Now she is veering closer to Sanders' positions to try to draw off his support and pandering to voting groups. She is owned by her donors and will do nothing for the rest of us.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #876 on: March 06, 2016, 10:52:26 AM »
Found a fun little site/widget last night.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

This site provides a graph tracking the number of pledged delegates for each candidate, alongside a target graph towards the nomination.  There are a number of potential game-changers still in the future - the Ohio et al. primaries on the 15th, the PA et al. contests on April 26, and California and friends on June 7.

There's one for the Republicans as well - just click the button at the top of the site.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #877 on: March 06, 2016, 11:00:25 AM »
That is a great tool.  If I am reading the "Target" line right, it looks like Bernie should win Maine today and Michigan on Tuesday(?).

Edit:  looking at the contests completed so far, these numbers also seem to suggest that Bernie's been performing worse than he should have in 12 of the 18 states.  And in the 6 he did better than 538 predicted, he got four or fewer extra pledged delegates over Hillary.

Edit again:  looking at the numbers more, it looks like 538 sees Bernie's biggest estimated gain over Hillary is 17 pledged delegates in Washington.  Hillary's biggest estimated gain is in Florida:  18 over Bernie.  The swing in the rest of the states are all in the range of a dozen or less (e.g., Bernie's expected to win California and New York, but only gain 3 pledged delegates over Hillary each time; Hillary is supposed to win Illinois and that will get her 13 over Bernie).  Oniya's link really highlights how once you fall behind by a few hundred delegates, the proportionate allocation becomes vicious.  A lesson which, if memory serves, Hillary learned against Barack in 2008.



And agreed, Mith.  I always though Bernie got into the race in the first place to pull Hillary to the left--i.e., he wasn't expecting to win.  In terms of the first goal, he's definitely done that.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2016, 01:13:54 PM by Cycle »

Offline Mithlomwen

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #878 on: March 06, 2016, 11:55:59 AM »
Thought this was pretty interesting: 


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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #879 on: March 06, 2016, 08:20:46 PM »
So, Rubio won Puerto Rico. *thumbs up*

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #880 on: March 06, 2016, 08:38:59 PM »
O_o

I thought PR didn't vote until June?

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #881 on: March 06, 2016, 09:06:52 PM »
O_o

I thought PR didn't vote until June?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/us/politics/election-results.html?_r=0

Hes got the Primaries of P.R. in his pocket now.

Offline TheGlyphstone


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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #883 on: March 06, 2016, 09:13:10 PM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/how-donald-trumps-penis-is-helping-his-quest-for-the-white-house/


So...uh...yeah. This happened.


....one quote from that, though...

Quote
In the aftermath of the event, Google Search Trends showed that 400 per cent more people were looking for “Trump penis” over “Trump policy.”

Ye gods. When that many people care more about a candidate's giblets than his policies, something is terribly wrong. :/

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #884 on: March 06, 2016, 09:19:43 PM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/how-donald-trumps-penis-is-helping-his-quest-for-the-white-house/


So...uh...yeah. This happened.

Just remember, 1/4th of the world's population is retarded....and I'm not referring to the differently abled/Disabled.

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #885 on: March 06, 2016, 09:25:50 PM »
Ye gods. When that many people care more about a candidate's giblets than his policies, something is terribly wrong. :/

Half of them are probably the RNC or staffers of the GOP campaigns left trying to find a picture of one so they can attempt embarrassment a la Tony Weiner.

Silly Republicans!  The Donald doesn't have any!

Offline Merah

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #886 on: March 06, 2016, 10:22:01 PM »
Well Bernie pulled off a big win in Maine, erasing Hillary's gains from Louisiana and giving him a bit of desperately needed momentum.

But it all comes down to Michigan now. Bernie has to pull off a major upset there (where he is significantly behind in polling) to build even more momentum, or the nomination is effectively lost to him.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #887 on: March 06, 2016, 11:18:08 PM »
Well Bernie pulled off a big win in Maine, erasing Hillary's gains from Louisiana and giving him a bit of desperately needed momentum.

But it all comes down to Michigan now. Bernie has to pull off a major upset there (where he is significantly behind in polling) to build even more momentum, or the nomination is effectively lost to him.

He's been doing some serious campaigning in Detroit and Flint, talking about trade policy and the water crisis/fracking respectively.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/us/politics/election-results.html?_r=0

Hes got the Primaries of P.R. in his pocket now.

Yeah, I was confuzzled because I didn't realize that they had their two primaries on different days.  ^^;
« Last Edit: March 06, 2016, 11:20:02 PM by Oniya »

Offline la dame en noir

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #888 on: March 07, 2016, 04:36:43 AM »
I live in Michigan(currently) and I will be voting for Bernie tomorrow. I'm worried as hell, my ex boyfriend won't be voting. I just don't understand how people go around now voting for the people that run this country.

Offline ThePrince

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #889 on: March 07, 2016, 08:06:49 AM »
I think the Republican primary is moving closer to a Trump or Cruz nomination than a brokered convention. Rubio doesnt appear to be able to break out of a 20% ceiling and that is costing him delegates. Cruz seems to have the momentum at the moment and that could propel him above Trunp. Which is a shame as I would love to watch a republican brokered convention.

Offline Merah

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #890 on: March 07, 2016, 09:23:04 AM »
I think the Republican primary is moving closer to a Trump or Cruz nomination than a brokered convention. Rubio doesnt appear to be able to break out of a 20% ceiling and that is costing him delegates. Cruz seems to have the momentum at the moment and that could propel him above Trunp. Which is a shame as I would love to watch a republican brokered convention.

Yeah, all politics aside, that would be cool as hell to see!

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #891 on: March 07, 2016, 09:50:54 AM »
Well Bernie pulled off a big win in Maine, erasing Hillary's gains from Louisiana

Actually, according to Oniya's 538 site, that's not correct.  Hillary won 13 more pledged delegates than Bernie in Louisiana (37 to 14).  Bernie won 7 more pledged delegates than Hillary in Maine (16 to 9).  So Bernie is still down 6 pledged delegates, not even.

But it does give him a bit of momentum though.

Offline ThePrince

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #892 on: March 07, 2016, 11:21:47 AM »
On a side note, Kentucky held a caucus instead of a primary this year. The reason is that Senator Rand Paul wanted to run for president and run to keep his senate seat which isn't allowed in Kentucky. Senstor Paul was able to get around this law by having Kentucky hold a caucus, that he had to pay for. The fact that Rand Paul had to pay for a Trump victory is one of the more pleasing moments in this race.

Offline Merah

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #893 on: March 07, 2016, 11:26:28 AM »
Actually, according to Oniya's 538 site, that's not correct.  Hillary won 13 more pledged delegates than Bernie in Louisiana (37 to 14).  Bernie won 7 more pledged delegates than Hillary in Maine (16 to 9).  So Bernie is still down 6 pledged delegates, not even.

But it does give him a bit of momentum though.

I should have been clearer, but I was speaking of the March 5th and 6th primaries as a whole. Hillary only gained 5 delegates on the 5th with her win in Louisiana, because the rest of her gains were canceled out by Bernie's victories in Kansas and Nebraska. So Bernie is actually 2 delegates up from those 4 contests.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #894 on: March 07, 2016, 11:40:43 AM »
I should have been clearer, but I was speaking of the March 5th and 6th primaries as a whole. Hillary only gained 5 delegates on the 5th with her win in Louisiana, because the rest of her gains were canceled out by Bernie's victories in Kansas and Nebraska. So Bernie is actually 2 delegates up from those 4 contests.

Ah yes.  In that case you are absolutely correct.  Bernie did well over the weekend and gained 2 pledged delegates on Hillary, cutting her lead on such delegates to just under 200.

Offline elone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #895 on: March 08, 2016, 10:56:02 PM »
Bernie wins Michigan!!  Not much of a delegate win, split evenly probably, but a great moral victory proving many of the pundits wrong. I thought I saw the CNN and MSNBC folks actually shedding tears.

Offline Merah

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #896 on: March 08, 2016, 11:02:05 PM »
:D And so it continues...

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #897 on: March 08, 2016, 11:51:31 PM »
Apparently, many of the polls had Hillary winning - proves that Mr. Clemens may have been onto something with regards to statistics.  ;)

Offline Merah

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #898 on: March 09, 2016, 01:25:16 AM »
It's the largest upset in a Democratic primary (with regards to polls going in) since 1984. Clearly, voter turnout for Bernie simply overwhelmed the odds... which may be a sign that what is left of Clinton's lead in national polls has lost its significance.

I still think Hillary has better than even odds, but Bernie has serious momentum and will gain more if he sweeps the next few contests. He might just catch her delegate count, when all is said and done.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #899 on: March 09, 2016, 09:33:21 AM »
Super Tuesday II results so far:

State   Winner   Runner up
Michigan (130)   Sanders 50%   Clinton 48%
Mississippi (36)   Clinton 83%   Sanders 17%

Total delegates 2,382 to win, 166 in play yesterday, 2,973 remaining

Clinton   1,221   51% of total needed   needs to win 39% of remaining delegates to clinch
Sanders   571   24% of total needed   needs to win 61% of remaining delegates to clinch



State   Winner   Runner up
Michigan (59)   Trump 37%   Cruz 25%
Mississippi (40)   Trump 47%   Cruz 36%
Idaho (32)   Cruz 45%   Trump 28%
Hawaii (19)   Trump 42%   Cruz 33%

Total delegates 1,237 to win, 150 in play yesterday, 1,435 remaining

Trump   458   37% of total needed   needs to win 54% of remaining delegates to clinch
Cruz   359   29% of total needed   needs to win 61% of remaining delegates to clinch
Rubio   151   12% of total needed   needs to win 76% of remaining delegates to clinch



Looking at the 538 numbers, Clinton gained 93 pledged delegates yesterday and Sanders gained 73--so Clinton +20.  Trump gained 71, Cruz gained 58, and Rubio gained 1--so Trump +13.  Momentum seems to be with Sanders and Trump going into the next round, and Rubio is looking really weak...