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Author Topic: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]  (Read 40959 times)

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Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #850 on: March 03, 2016, 02:47:43 PM »
Hillary was 'winning' the superdelegate count back in 2008 when she was up against Obama for the Democratic nomination.

True, Clinton had more superdelegates than Obama at the start of the 2008 primaries and Obama later caught up.  But there's a key difference: Obama won the early primaries (Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina) and got more pledged delegates on Super Tuesday.  Sanders hasn't done either.  Comparing 2008 and 2016 at this stage is thus like comparing apples to oranges.

In the current cycle, the candidate with the superdelegate lead (i.e., Clinton) has also won more pledged delegates in the early primaries and on Super Tuesday.  Thus to the extent the will of the people has been revealed, that will supports Clinton more than Sanders, so there's no factual basis to argue that the superdelegates are overriding the desire of the voters.



The guy is a clown, or at least he's making a very good impersonation of one.  ::)

Who, Drumpf or Romney?

Oh wait.  What's the difference?  ;D



Edit:  I just saw the Romney speech.  What a schmuck.  He's clearly angling for a third shot at the White House.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 09:15:52 AM by Cycle »

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #851 on: March 04, 2016, 04:38:35 AM »
Normally, I'm not on the side of the Kaiju.

But seeing the GOP panic as they realize that the Wall of Life has been breached and there's no Jaeger inbound to save all their asses is delicious.  Of particular note is the article that Colbert mentioned in the last couple of days where Mitch McConnell said they would drop Trump 'like a hot rock.'

If I'm the Kaiju, or hell, anyone outside the GOP, I take that and I run with it until it burns my hands.  "You see these guys in Washington?  These GOP political establishment guys?  They don't care about you, they just care that they can fool you into voting for them by invoking the boogeyman.  If they cared about the will of the people, they'd be backing me/him all the way.  But they aren't, because they don't."

I could personally care less about who wins the election, left or right, if - and this is something of one - it utterly destroys the political class and this notion that they care about their constituency.  They don't give a shit about most of their voters.  Your average, working-class person, is just there so they can go back to Congress and not have to deal with the fallout of their poor decisions.  That attitude needs to change.

Offline TaintedAndDelish

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #852 on: March 04, 2016, 09:45:52 AM »
Normally, I'm not on the side of the Kaiju.

Of particular note is the article that Colbert mentioned in the last couple of days where Mitch McConnell said they would drop Trump 'like a hot rock.'


That's very interesting. The polls from Super Tuesday show that Trump is favored over Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Kasich combined. If they drop Trump (or he gets pissed and leaves) and he runs as Independent, then Hillary wins. This implies to me that the GOP would rather have Hillary (a democrat) win than Trump. In the event that Trump were to win as an Independent, the GOP still looses since they would have spoiled their relationship with him. I just don't see a win for them in this situation unless they work with Trump, but even still, If they do submit to Trump, then they basically become his bitch and he knows it.




Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #853 on: March 04, 2016, 10:48:34 AM »
Anyone watch the Republican debate?  Thoughts?

It's times like this that I wish I spoke Spanish - there's a nice little restaurant at the top of my street that plays Univision on their TV, and I think it'd be great fun to listen to the commentary.

Offline Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #854 on: March 04, 2016, 12:30:10 PM »
That's very interesting. The polls from Super Tuesday show that Trump is favored over Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Kasich combined.
Depends on what polls you look at, I guess. FiveThirtyEight has a recent article that claims that between Cruz, Rubio, and Trump, Trump is actually the one voters would be least satisfied with as the GOP nominee, based on exit polls on Tuesday.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #855 on: March 04, 2016, 04:17:54 PM »
That's very interesting. The polls from Super Tuesday show that Trump is favored over Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Kasich combined. If they drop Trump (or he gets pissed and leaves) and he runs as Independent, then Hillary wins. This implies to me that the GOP would rather have Hillary (a democrat) win than Trump. In the event that Trump were to win as an Independent, the GOP still looses since they would have spoiled their relationship with him. I just don't see a win for them in this situation unless they work with Trump, but even still, If they do submit to Trump, then they basically become his bitch and he knows it.

Yep, that's roughly my analysis too. The GOP can't win against Trump - they can't beat both him and Hillary - and if they bend and nominate him they have pretty much become his bitch and his hostages. The mainstream Reps won't like it, and the Tea Party right and the Bible Belt Christians won't feel very okay with Trump either. He isn't very credible as a conservative candidate. Or as a prospective Commander-in-Chief.

Would like to think that Trump, if he does get the nomination,  can't gather quite enough votes to really win - there aren't quite that many angry and stupid people - but who knows...  :-\
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 04:33:24 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #856 on: March 04, 2016, 05:18:50 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35732562

Carson is out.  OP?  Please update the poll to reflect that he is.

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #857 on: March 04, 2016, 06:47:42 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35732562

Carson is out.  OP?  Please update the poll to reflect that he is.

Updated! Thank you!  :-)

Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #858 on: March 04, 2016, 06:51:56 PM »
Would like to think that Trump, if he does get the nomination,  can't gather quite enough votes to really win - there aren't quite that many angry and stupid people - but who knows...  :-\

I think the perception of Trump's campaign is going to change if he does get the nomination.

Obviously he'll still be Trump and thus he'll still be cartoonish, still grandstand and still be a clown... but I wrote in a previous post about how much of the criticism of him from the Republican right is because he's seen as not being Republican enough and actually a donkey in elephant clothing. He's praised Planned Parenthood with his "threats" being deliberately meaningless (no federal funding for abortions... of which there's almost none anyway due to the Hyde amendment) which also fits in with him previously being pretty pro-choice, he's called out Bush for the Iraq War, he hasn't completely backed away from his previously discussed wealth tax (which is far more radical than anything Sanders has suggested), he rejects cuts to big governmental expenditures like Social Security and Medicare and he's hardly been fundamentalist when it comes to opposing gay marriage. And remember, that's when he's running for the Republican nomination and so he's generally going to swing more towards them for the moment, even if he has no intention of doing so when the Presidential campaign starts. Expect to see him move towards the centre far more if he gets the nomination... not so far that he'll completely lose the Republican base but still a swing.

The reason Trump gets the fascist thing thrown at him is largely because of his immigration policy, both towards Mexico and his "pause" for Muslim immigrants. And the policies are undoubtedly nationalistic (as well as bombastic etc etc). When someone mentions nationalism the first thought in countries that don't have a recent colonial past is almost always of jack boots and shaved heads... but there's long been a strong nationalist streak to the left as well. I'm not talking about the whole "National Socialism" thing here... that's a completely separate debate. I'm talking about the nationalist streak on the left that emphasizes protecting the existing working class from globalisation, out-sourcing and immigration. Sanders himself largely followed that position until recently... he opposed immigration reforms because he thought they'd lower pay and working conditions for the working class... and a cynic may well note that his conversion came at pretty much the exact moment he started running a national campaign where the Hispanic vote is important rather than a campaign entirely within the almost all white Vermont. Economic nationalism isn't an unpopular position and it's a position the left has embraced more and more in recent years. Every opposition to companies outsourcing work overseas... economic nationalism. Every opposition to a company arranging its taxes to pay them abroad... economic nationalism. Every opposition to pay or working benefits being cut... economic nationalism. And it's not a big step to go from economic nationalism to a more general form. We've sort of seen it already; any opposition to immigration on the basis that it can lower workers wages or puts more strain on welfare budgets is taking an economically nationalist position but there's non-economic consequences as well.

Trump's clearly unlikely to do particularly well in Hispanic areas because of the wall rhetoric and there will also be those turned off by his talk about pausing Islamic immigration. But don't be surprised if his messages start to resonate in some traditionally working class areas that one wouldn't necessarily expect; to give a UK example there's a reason that the BNP (ultra nationalist and flat out racist party) found its best results coming from traditional Labour (our leftwing) regions.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #859 on: March 04, 2016, 06:53:29 PM »
A tribute for the most recent fallen:



Online TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #860 on: March 04, 2016, 07:40:44 PM »
I think the perception of Trump's campaign is going to change if he does get the nomination.

Obviously he'll still be Trump and thus he'll still be cartoonish, still grandstand and still be a clown... but I wrote in a previous post about how much of the criticism of him from the Republican right is because he's seen as not being Republican enough and actually a donkey in elephant clothing. He's praised Planned Parenthood with his "threats" being deliberately meaningless (no federal funding for abortions... of which there's almost none anyway due to the Hyde amendment) which also fits in with him previously being pretty pro-choice, he's called out Bush for the Iraq War, he hasn't completely backed away from his previously discussed wealth tax (which is far more radical than anything Sanders has suggested), he rejects cuts to big governmental expenditures like Social Security and Medicare and he's hardly been fundamentalist when it comes to opposing gay marriage. And remember, that's when he's running for the Republican nomination and so he's generally going to swing more towards them for the moment, even if he has no intention of doing so when the Presidential campaign starts. Expect to see him move towards the centre far more if he gets the nomination... not so far that he'll completely lose the Republican base but still a swing.

The reason Trump gets the fascist thing thrown at him is largely because of his immigration policy, both towards Mexico and his "pause" for Muslim immigrants. And the policies are undoubtedly nationalistic (as well as bombastic etc etc). When someone mentions nationalism the first thought in countries that don't have a recent colonial past is almost always of jack boots and shaved heads... but there's long been a strong nationalist streak to the left as well. I'm not talking about the whole "National Socialism" thing here... that's a completely separate debate. I'm talking about the nationalist streak on the left that emphasizes protecting the existing working class from globalisation, out-sourcing and immigration. Sanders himself largely followed that position until recently... he opposed immigration reforms because he thought they'd lower pay and working conditions for the working class... and a cynic may well note that his conversion came at pretty much the exact moment he started running a national campaign where the Hispanic vote is important rather than a campaign entirely within the almost all white Vermont. Economic nationalism isn't an unpopular position and it's a position the left has embraced more and more in recent years. Every opposition to companies outsourcing work overseas... economic nationalism. Every opposition to a company arranging its taxes to pay them abroad... economic nationalism. Every opposition to pay or working benefits being cut... economic nationalism. And it's not a big step to go from economic nationalism to a more general form. We've sort of seen it already; any opposition to immigration on the basis that it can lower workers wages or puts more strain on welfare budgets is taking an economically nationalist position but there's non-economic consequences as well.

Trump's clearly unlikely to do particularly well in Hispanic areas because of the wall rhetoric and there will also be those turned off by his talk about pausing Islamic immigration. But don't be surprised if his messages start to resonate in some traditionally working class areas that one wouldn't necessarily expect; to give a UK example there's a reason that the BNP (ultra nationalist and flat out racist party) found its best results coming from traditional Labour (our leftwing) regions.

Read a very interesting article today along these lines, on Cracked of all places (they do occasionally hit a gold nugget). As far as the author explained it (and fairly well, even in bullet-point list form), Trump isn't throwing the Hispanic vote to the dogs to court the old-white-racist vote, he's after the African-American voting bloc.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-realistic-ways-donald-trump-can-accomplish-his-crazy-goals/

Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #861 on: March 04, 2016, 07:55:45 PM »
Read a very interesting article today along these lines, on Cracked of all places (they do occasionally hit a gold nugget). As far as the author explained it (and fairly well, even in bullet-point list form), Trump isn't throwing the Hispanic vote to the dogs to court the old-white-racist vote, he's after the African-American voting bloc.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-realistic-ways-donald-trump-can-accomplish-his-crazy-goals/

Trump's already got pretty great numbers among black voters according to some of the polls I've seen; within the Republican party he trounces the others and while when matched up with Democrats his numbers suffer (the best poll put him at about 25%) that has to be put in the context of other Republican attempts; in 2012 Romney picked up a mighty 6% of African-American voters and while you may argue that was down to Obama Bush only got 11% against Kerry and Bob Dole got 12% against Clinton.

Now, the poll putting Trump at 25% might be an outlier; others have put him at the 12% mark that you'd expect a Republican candidate to have. But if what I'm saying above is correct and Trump moves towards a more economic nationalist (and populist) position over the campaign then you may well see his numbers swell especially as a number of the things he rails against are the concerns some black communities have; talking about how America no longer builds anything and has lost out to Asia should catch on in Detroit for example. That said, it's very much a should; many of Sanders policies would seemingly be of great benefit the African-American community but his numbers within that demographic have always struggled.

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #862 on: March 04, 2016, 08:21:44 PM »
Keep in mind, though, that while certain voting blocs are considered crucial to winning an election, that may or may not be the case.  Depending on your source, blacks only constitute 10-15% of the entire population of the US.  Currently, Hispanics are about the same, though a lot of studies suggest that the Hispanic population of the US might grow significantly within the next handful of election cycles, which will make them important.  If you take the average values, those two groups together make up only about 30% of the population.  Now, I do realize that a bloc can wield influence disproportionate to its size, if that bloc turns out heavily to vote and another bloc does not: black's 15% can mean more if 95% of them vote in an election compared to, say, someone who has 30% of the population, but only 25% of them turn out to vote.

A couple podcasts I listen to (with a grain of salt, as always) have analyzed this election versus the past election.  In one of those analyses, they talked about the importance of being able to carry certain groups - Romney vs Obama as the example.  The host went on to say that people said Romney didn't court the Hispanic vote enough, he should have done more, etc etc.  The numbers analysis of the election showed that for Romney to win, he would have needed (I'll have to fact-check myself later) somewhere around three-quarters of the Hispanic vote (when his polling numbers showed him in the 20% range), whereas he could have accomplished that with only another ~5% of the white vote.

That critical single-digit percent didn't happen, however, because he failed to successfully garner white working-class people, because of attack ads like the one where the guy get fired from his job (because of Romney), lost his insurance, and then his wife died of cancer - or so the story said.


That all said - blacks have characteristically been Democratic voters since the civil rights era, if Trump can pry blacks away from the Democratic party, that'll be a feat unto itself.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #863 on: March 05, 2016, 01:16:57 PM »
So CPAC is wrapping up and it looks like Cruz and Rubio are trying to hammer Trump for not being a "true conservative."

Honestly, I think their argument is misguided.  Trump's supporters don't care so much about being "conservative" as they do about "throwing the bums out of DC."  The more these Senators whine about Trump not being a true conservative/a true representative of the Republican party, the more it strengthens Trump's position.

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #864 on: March 05, 2016, 01:20:31 PM »
So CPAC is wrapping up and it looks like Cruz and Rubio are trying to hammer Trump for not being a "true conservative."

Honestly, I think their argument is misguided.  Trump's supporters don't care so much about being "conservative" as they do about "throwing the bums out of DC."  The more these Senators whine about Trump not being a true conservative/a true representative of the Republican party, the more it strengthens Trump's position.

I agree. Trump's supporters love most about him that he's perceived to be anti-establishment. When members of the establishment complain that he doesn't fit the "true conservative" mold, what Trump supporters are most likely to perceive that to be is that he's disliked for not conforming....which is exactly why Trump's supporters liked him in the first place. For his supporters, seeing Senators complain about Trump is likely a form of validation that Trump remains anti-establishment.

The best thing the GOP could probably do is pay a lot less attention to Trump. Granted, with the current media saturation of Trump, that's...a tall order, unfortunately.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #865 on: March 05, 2016, 05:55:00 PM »
I agree. Trump's supporters love most about him that he's perceived to be anti-establishment.

Earlier today, Robert Reich posted this on Facebook:

Quote
But now the defining political lines in America are establishment versus anti-establishment, and authoritarian versus democratic. Trump is the anti-establishment authoritarian candidate. Bernie remains the anti-establishment democratic candidate. Hillary is the establishment candidate of the Democratic Party. But where does that leave the Republican establishment?

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #866 on: March 05, 2016, 06:03:39 PM »
It's a pretty good question.

Cruz himself does not have the strongest history of cooperating with the GOP establishment...and he's the candidate most likely to triumph over Trump at this point. It looks like he's emerged in Kansas (click on the state for the numbers).

The GOP has not coalesced behind or strongly supported "establishment" candidates sufficiently (too many candidates from the onset made that harder), and the party is in the middle of a massive tone shift--I won't say "ideological" shift, but tone. Repblican voters seem angrier and more dissatisfied than they have been in a very long time, and the polls are showing that. The media coverage of Trump over GOP-preferred candidates has hurt them terribly. Once upon a time, people might have laughed off the idea of Trump and Cruz as Republican frontrunners...and yet here we are.

Personally, I think the GOP "establishment" is a bit in shambles this election cycle, but that's just me. At this juncture, I don't think there is a viable "establishment" candidate for the GOP.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2016, 06:06:12 PM by Blythe »

Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #867 on: March 05, 2016, 07:23:58 PM »
Cruz is in some ways actually less "establishment" than Trump... one of Trump's big points is that he's a man who can make deals while Cruz has basically built his political career on proudly refusing to make them or compromise in any way; the highpoint of his political career so far is basically the govermental shutdown he took the lead on. It's not so long ago that stories were coming out about how the Republican establishment were willing to hold their nose and support Trump rather than go over to Cruz.

I'm also not sure to say establishment support didn't coalesce around anyone... I'd say it did, but it coalesced around the wrong person. Look at the amount of support and money Jeb Bush got; you don't get that (and get it as early as Bush did) if the powers-that-be aren't supporting you. The issue was that Jeb was an uninspiring candidate to begin with, lacked real political capital having been largely out of the scene for so long and ended up first in the Trump firing line. I imagine since Jeb dropped out a lot of that has moved towards Rubio... but it may well be too little, too late, with Rubio having lost so much ground to both Trump and Cruz early.

Offline Mithlomwen

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #868 on: March 05, 2016, 08:33:12 PM »
Bernie has won the Kansas Democratic caucuses.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #869 on: March 05, 2016, 10:38:28 PM »
Bernie has won the Kansas Democratic caucuses.

And Nebraska :-)

Offline TaintedAndDelish

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #870 on: March 06, 2016, 12:26:39 AM »
I'm curious about whether supporters of Bernie believe that he will be able to accomplish any of his goals regarding democratic socialism and breaking up the big banks without the support of congress or the over use of executive orders? I tend to see radical changes like that as being less likely without first changing congress - which is a lot harder to do than swapping out a single president. Therefore, while well intentioned, I tend to think that electing Bernie would lead to an Obama-esc stalemate.

Regarding Trump, I recall hearing a lot of talk about how dissatisfied people were with both the republican and democratic sides during the last two or three presidential elections. I believe it was in the last four or eight years that people really starting ranting about how all of the candidates that we are stuck with are actually chosen by "the rich", so it's no wonder that there's such a push for an anti-establishment candidate and more so, for one that shares and voices the same angry sentiment. I think a lot of this resentment started around the time that Bush (Jr.) was elected. It was either him or Bob Dole, and both of them really felt like unfortunate choices.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #871 on: March 06, 2016, 12:52:07 AM »
From what I've seen in my newsfeeds, the Bernie supporter groups are also following and touting Congressional candidates who are in line with Bernie's policies.  Reps that have endorsed Bernie, as well as those who simply have a similar connection to the issues that are affecting their constituents - and not just the constituents that are funneling large amounts of money to them.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #872 on: March 06, 2016, 07:06:00 AM »
Super Saturday results so far:

State   Winner   Runner up
Kansas (37)   Sanders 68%   Clinton 32%
Louisiana (58)   Clinton 71%   Sanders 23%
Nebraska (30)   Sanders 56%   Clinton 44%

Total delegates 2,382 to win, 125 in play yesterday, 3,165 remaining

Clinton   1,121   (+65)   47% of total needed   needs to win 40% of remaining delegates to clinch
Sanders   479   (+35)   16% of total needed   needs to win 60% of remaining delegates to clinch



State   Winner   Runner up
Kansas (40)   Cruz 48%   Trump 23%
Kentucky (46)   Trump 36%   Cruz 32%
Louisana (46)   Trump 41%   Cruz 39%
Maine (23)   Cruz 46%   Trump 33%

Total delegates 1,237 to win, 155 in play yesterday, 1627 remaining

Trump   378   (+49)   31% of total needed   needs to win 53% of remaining delegates to clinch
Cruz   295   (+64)   24% of total needed   needs to win 58% of remaining delegates to clinch
Rubio   123   (+13)   10% of total needed   needs to win 68% of remaining delegates to clinch



Looking at the math, Trump's chances of winning the primaries before the convention isn't so good.  He needs to win more than half the remaining delegates to pull that off.  However, since Republicans have several big "winner takes all" states, he might still get what he needs.  March 15 will be exciting.


Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #873 on: March 06, 2016, 07:16:53 AM »
I'm curious about whether supporters of Bernie believe that he will be able to accomplish any of his goals regarding democratic socialism and breaking up the big banks without the support of congress or the over use of executive orders?

That was my biggest concern when I was considering voting for Bernie.  I heard a lot of lovely soundbites but no plans.  Oniya is the only one who has posted anything here suggesting that someone has a plan.  Unfortunately, what she posted suggests that while Bernie's supporters are aware of the problem, Bernie's campaign itself does not have a plan to address the problem. 

I dug around and have only heard Bernie answer the question "how are you going to do it" twice.  Both times, his answer was simply:  "once I am President, I will rally the people and they will demand that Congress do what we want."

To me, that's not a plan.

Especially considering the fact that Bernie has pursuing these goals in Congress for over 20 years and not succeeded.  This is telling since during those 20 years, there were periods when the Democrats controlled both the Presidency and Congress.  So I am not convinced Bernie can deliver.  Worse, I suspect he is aware of this and still charging forward anyway, which suggests some awful things...

Offline Kythia

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #874 on: March 06, 2016, 08:13:19 AM »
From the outside looking in, that's very much the problem with Sanders.  Further, the proposed solution seems to raise more questions than it answers.  If the solution to the problem is getting behind various other Congress candidates as Oniya seems to suggest then it raises the question of why bother with Sanders at all?  Presumably congress races are easier to influence than presidential ones and if the argument is "get Sanders in then turn attention to Congress so laws can be passed to get the things we want" then, well, why bother with Sanders?  All the money being donated to his campaign would do more good elsewhere, surely?  Using that as a solution seems to relegate Sanders to an expensive time consuming distraction.  Hand Clinton the congress you want rather than wasting time getting Sanders in then getting the congress you want.