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Author Topic: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]  (Read 40948 times)

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Online Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #675 on: February 02, 2016, 08:44:41 PM »
I'm actually marking that as a win for him, since as Glyph pointed out, that 0.3% is basically margin of error. 

I noted that the headline on Blythe's article was 'Ted Cruz wins.  Clinton declares victory.'  It's semantics, to be sure, but it goes to show the difference in leads.

The real victory is that people didn't just sit on the Internet and talk about it - they went out and voted, and may have actually had to declare party affiliation ahead of time.  (Is Iowa a closed primary?  I forget.)

Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #676 on: February 03, 2016, 08:04:59 AM »
The real victory is that people didn't just sit on the Internet and talk about it - they went out and voted, and may have actually had to declare party affiliation ahead of time.  (Is Iowa a closed primary?  I forget.)

Pedantic/technical note; caucus not primary.

The Iowa Caucus is a closed primary (as in that you have to register as a Democrat/Republican to take part in their respective events) but one can register to vote at a caucus itself so there's no need to do so ahead of time.

Offline Avis habilis

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #677 on: February 03, 2016, 08:45:00 AM »

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #678 on: February 03, 2016, 11:52:49 AM »
OP updated to reflect Rand Paul dropped--thanks, Avis! ^^

Offline Mithlomwen

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #679 on: February 03, 2016, 02:28:02 PM »
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but apparently Rick Santorum is dropping out as well. 

On another note, I still find the news coverage on Bernie frustrating.  This morning while watching Good Morning America, they were reporting on the Iowa caucus results.  They had an analyst there to break various things down.  The main topic naturally was Cruz's win over Trump.  They made a passing mention of Hillary coming in ahead of Bernie, and a quick mention that he had a double digit lead on her going into New Hampshire, and then went right back to talking about the GOP candidates. 

The man came in like three tenths of a percent behind Hillary (or there abouts) in Iowa .  You know.....the lady that most everyone 'assumes' is automatically going to win the Democratic nomination....and he gets a casual mention and a generalized hand wave. 

........really? 

 >:(

Online TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #680 on: February 03, 2016, 02:53:39 PM »
They can't report on his crushing defeat, so the best they can do is ignore him and hope that it was a fluke.

Online Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #681 on: February 03, 2016, 03:00:17 PM »
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but apparently Rick Santorum is dropping out as well. 

On another note, I still find the news coverage on Bernie frustrating.  This morning while watching Good Morning America, they were reporting on the Iowa caucus results.  They had an analyst there to break various things down.  The main topic naturally was Cruz's win over Trump.  They made a passing mention of Hillary coming in ahead of Bernie, and a quick mention that he had a double digit lead on her going into New Hampshire, and then went right back to talking about the GOP candidates. 

The man came in like three tenths of a percent behind Hillary (or there abouts) in Iowa .  You know.....the lady that most everyone 'assumes' is automatically going to win the Democratic nomination....and he gets a casual mention and a generalized hand wave. 

........really? 

 >:(

'And, my friends, in this story you have a history of this entire movement. First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you. And that, is what is going to happen...'
http://books.google.com/books?id=QrcpAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA53&dq=%22First+they+ignore+you%22

;D

Offline HannibalBarca

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #682 on: February 03, 2016, 07:36:55 PM »
“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”  --Mahatma Gandhi

Yes, GlyphStone and Oniya--good quote for Bernie supporters to remember!

Online Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #683 on: February 03, 2016, 07:48:03 PM »
“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”  --Mahatma Gandhi

Yes, GlyphStone and Oniya--good quote for Bernie supporters to remember!

Actually, if you follow the link, the quote didn't come from Gandhi, although it is often misattributed to him.  The fact that it came from a speech at a trade-union convention does fit in with Bernie's support of the common man, though.

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #684 on: February 03, 2016, 08:28:56 PM »
On another note, I still find the news coverage on Bernie frustrating.  This morning while watching Good Morning America, they were reporting on the Iowa caucus results.  They had an analyst there to break various things down.  The main topic naturally was Cruz's win over Trump.  They made a passing mention of Hillary coming in ahead of Bernie, and a quick mention that he had a double digit lead on her going into New Hampshire, and then went right back to talking about the GOP candidates. 

The man came in like three tenths of a percent behind Hillary (or there abouts) in Iowa .  You know.....the lady that most everyone 'assumes' is automatically going to win the Democratic nomination....and he gets a casual mention and a generalized hand wave. 

........really? 

 >:(

The media has exactly 0% reason to want to promote Bernie in any way.  Promoting Bernie would be a massive, massive case of shooting itself in the foot.

One.  The media has been hyping Hillary Clinton as the nominee for the last eight plus years - they lost their first shot with Obama's rise to power, and they don't want to run the risk of having history repeat itself.  And THIS time, if Hillary doesn't manage a nomination, there's no cabinet position waiting for her so she can glide along on cruise control until the next election - SecState is as high as you can go in the cabinet, so unless she's willing to reprise the role in a Sanders presidency, if she fails to win this time around she's out for good.

Two.  Sanders has come out as anti-big corporate interest, which the media either IS (in the case of some nextworks) or at least can qualify as.  If Bernie is elected, and can keep his promises, the media is looking at a possible reduction in power and influence over the American public.  Which it does not want.

Three.  If I were the media, I would personally be wondering if we were backing the right person.  Bernie managed to effectively tie Clinton in Iowa, without the massive corporate and media backing that she enjoyed.  If Bernie were to get the support of the media?  He would be almost undeniably unstoppable.  But again, diminished corporate power, which would essentially mean a shot to the foot.

That said, the media will gladly shoot itself in the foot if it means avoiding getting shot in the face - IE, if Bernie wins the nomination, the media will be more than happy to throw their support behind him rather than let a Republican win the Presidency.  In that respect, they're not much different from their opponents.

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #685 on: February 03, 2016, 08:58:37 PM »
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but apparently Rick Santorum is dropping out as well. 

I'll get the OP updated--thanks, Mith. :)



Part of me thinks that as candidates drop, we'll see surges in support for Rubio. Trump is not stable enough/reliable enough as a candidate, Cruz has proven that he can't function smoothly in the past (his role in that one particularly crappy government shutdown, for example) and won't work well with the GOP establishment, so Rubio'll emerge as the GOP nominee, I suspect.

I don't think Rubio will have the momentum and support needed vs. someone like Hillary or Bernie, though, so I'm suspecting we'll see a Democrat as President at this juncture unless there's some sort of massive change in developments down the line.

Offline Mithlomwen

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #686 on: February 05, 2016, 08:13:46 AM »
Apparently there's been some shady campaigning tactics with Cruz.  Some of his people were making calls falsely claiming that Carson would be dropping out of the race, and those people who supported him should support Cruz in his stead. 

So Trump was sort of correct in saying that Cruz didn't win Iowa, he 'stole' it. 


Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #687 on: February 05, 2016, 08:52:58 AM »
What's up with Ted Cruz and Scandinavia? We all know he doesn't like the traditions of state-sponsored welfare programmes our countries set an early example in (somewhat slimmed down post-2000 by the way...) but does he really have to make sure we don't get any new U.S. ambassadors?  >:(

Quote
WASHINGTON – Presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz is blocking a vote in the U.S. Senate to confirm the Norwegian and Swedish ambassador nominations.

The move by the Texas Republican has angered some members of Minnesota’s sizable Scandinavian communities, as Norway has been without an ambassador for more than 800 days and Sweden tops 400 days without a U.S. representative.

Cruz claims one key reason to block the approval vote of these guys is (and has been) his rancour about the Iran nuclear deal. ???!

Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #688 on: February 05, 2016, 10:51:37 AM »
What's up with Ted Cruz and Scandinavia? We all know he doesn't like the traditions of state-sponsored welfare programmes our countries set an early example in (somewhat slimmed down post-2000 by the way...) but does he really have to make sure we don't get any new U.S. ambassadors?  >:(

Cruz claims one key reason to block the approval vote of these guys is (and has been) his rancour about the Iran nuclear deal. ???!

Holding up appointments not because of the specific appointee themselves but as a general protest against a policy in a related area is pretty common. To give one example it was only a few days ago that Obama's nominee to head the FDA was held up by a Democrat because he objected to the way painkillers are approved.

In this case Cruz is both objecting to the Iran deal and one of his own personal projects; he wants a street named after Chinese human-rights activist Liu Xiaobo. a Nobel peace prize winner who's a political prisoner in China, but has repeatedly been blocked be Democrats. Cruz' reasoning may be incredibly petty (the road he wants renamed is the one the Chinese embassy is on) but I think it's still a worthwhile cause and this sort of political trading is part and parcel of what goes on.

Offline Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #689 on: February 05, 2016, 12:21:09 PM »
...and this sort of political trading is part and parcel of what goes on.
Perhaps in the US of A, but it can look a little odd to someone who is used to a different style of doing things. But what I find more odd than the style of doing politics in this particular instance is that Cruz can actually do something to hold up the process. As far as I understand these matters, an ambassador is the representative of the head of state of his/her nation. Neither the Senate, nor Ted Cruz is the head of the United States, or at least I think so when it comes to foreign policy matters(?). It does seem to call into question who exactly it is a US ambassador represents if the appointments are subject to such a strong influence by various parts of the government.

Offline Skynet

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #690 on: February 08, 2016, 01:19:05 PM »
A carnival float in Düsseldorf, Germany had a Trump caricature:

« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 10:09:23 PM by Skynet »

Offline ThePrince

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #691 on: February 09, 2016, 01:47:20 PM »
Today is the New Hampshire primaries, polls close at 7/8PM EST.

This will be a make or break for a lot of republican candidates, we could be seeing a lot of them drop out after tonight.

Here are my predictions

Winner: Trump
Runner Up: Kasich

Candidates who will likely drop out(from most likely to less likely)
Fiorina
Christie
Kasich (if he doesn't make second)
Jeb!
Gilmore
Carson
Rubio

If Trump doesn't win NH his campaign will be in serious doubt, but he will stay on until South Carolina. Ted Cruz isn't expected to win NH as it is a more moderate state.


Offline consortium11

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #692 on: February 09, 2016, 09:05:33 PM »
New Hampshire's fairly interesting from a Democratic perspective as well. Sanders had a fairly big lead over Clinton not so long ago and the narrow "loss" (which was basically a draw) in Iowa on paper should make him a comfortable and big favorite to win it significantly. But he (and more notably his supporters) have been under a sustained media attack since Iowa and while the Clinton "boots on the ground" operation has long been well regarded it's less certain that the enthusiasm that gave Sanders such support in Iowa will have carried over... one of the weaknesses of "upstart" campaigns tends to be that they burn very brightly for a while but then fade too quickly.

Sanders should still win but anything other than a big win will be somewhat of a concern and a loss could be pretty critical.



Edit: And just as I type that the primary gets called: Trump wins the Republican side and Sanders wins the Democrat race. It appears that John Kasich has come second on the Republican side which is probably more of a blow to the other candidates then it is a boost to his; while it helps in the short term it's hard to see him building too much from it. Interesting to see how that all breaks down; did Christie's evisceration of Rubio hurt Rubio more than it helped Christie? Did Cruz get a respectable enough figure to take something from it?

Likewise we'll have to see how the exact breakdown of the Democratic primary ends up; while a win for Sanders is certainly a good for him as above if it's a narrow victory it may actually signal worrying times ahead.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 09:11:09 PM by consortium11 »

Offline theLeslie

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #693 on: February 09, 2016, 10:53:22 PM »
Not sure I can tell this anywhere else, or loud enough, buuuuut....


YAY SANDERS!!!

Online Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #694 on: February 09, 2016, 11:38:04 PM »
Not sure I can tell this anywhere else, or loud enough, buuuuut....


YAY SANDERS!!!

*waves the purple flag*

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #695 on: February 09, 2016, 11:51:11 PM »
Yes, Bernie Sanders is cool. Trump on the other hand...the more his I-don't-effing-care style is paying off, the more many of us (Not least outside of the US) are left groaning and wondering how to get some sense into that race. Ballsy talk alone won't help in the White House.

Online TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #696 on: February 10, 2016, 12:12:42 AM »
Well, 60-40 for Bernie sounds pretty good to me, and the statements coming out of both sides of the Democratic campaign seem to think so as well. It'll be a national-scale battle after all, which is a victory in and of itself.

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #697 on: February 10, 2016, 01:31:59 AM »
So, Sanders took one minute out of his victory speech in New Hampshire to do a fundraiser.  One minute.  And jammed up the ActBlue processors.

Sixty to forty is the split I heard.  Do you hear the people sing?

Offline HannibalBarca

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #698 on: February 10, 2016, 01:39:08 AM »
Quote
Yes, Bernie Sanders is cool. Trump on the other hand...the more his I-don't-effing-care style is paying off, the more many of us (Not least outside of the US) are left groaning and wondering how to get some sense into that race. Ballsy talk alone won't help in the White House.

I can only hope for a Sanders-Trump general election.  Numerous polls show Bernie destroying the Donald.  As insane as some of the populace seems in supporting Trump, the majority seem to see through his boorish version of fascism.

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates
« Reply #699 on: February 10, 2016, 01:42:00 AM »
It is the music of a people who will not be slaves (again).

(:P  NERD!)

I'm on with Glyph for this one.  It's going to be a national-scale battle for the nomination, Bernie isn't going to just roll over and let the political class handle things.  They can't be trusted to have the best interests of anyone but themselves in mind.  That being said - putting Bernie in the White House won't change things if we don't also put in people who will follow and support his policies.  That's been the bane of the last two administrations - an Executive Branch of one party and a Congress of the other.  (Whether or not you think this president or the one before him were any good, that is not for this place to discuss.)  Make sure when you vote in your local elections, you vote for people who are going to help Bernie, not stand in his way.

Even, in the end, if he does fail, the fact that the Democratic nomination will be a national-scale contest should prove to the lobbyists, the politicians, the corporate goons, that the American people have serious grievances that need addressing...and that those grievances are ignored at peril.