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Author Topic: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]  (Read 40835 times)

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Offline Phaia

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1025 on: March 22, 2016, 05:26:08 PM »
So far I have tried to steer clear of the raging debate for and against Donald Trump. Whatever my opinion and how I may vote has shifted because of this attack ad.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/03/22/anti_trump_ads_try_to_win_over_mormons_by_slut_shaming_melania.html

I am very pissed off over the bigoted idiots that have reduced a woman who happens to be married to a candidate to nothing more the a naked body and in doing so she is unfit to be first lady.

Lucky Florida has already voted or I might have changed my vote over this nonsense!!

Are we all now so afraid of Trump that we allow attacks on his wife? I would really want to tell those behind the ad they lost me over it! I figure though since they lost Florida my voice would mean little. I wish there were ways to express my opinion and I hope other women's as well to those behind this sick ad!

Phaia
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 05:27:21 PM by Phaia »

Offline BlytheTopic starter

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1026 on: March 22, 2016, 05:56:20 PM »
I tend to only want to read about the candidate themselves--I don't really like it when ads/articles attack a candidate's relatives/family/spouse. Plus....urgh, slut-shaming. I hate that. Melania's sexuality or how she would like to dress should have no bearing on a person's decision on whether her husband would be a capable politician or capable POTUS. 

And...there are so many better things to focus on about Melania. Like the fact she speaks five languages and has had a successful working career as a model, and has been involved in some decent charity work in the past. I'm sure she has her faults, too, but for someone to think her body and the way she chooses to dress/express herself is one of those things baffles and angers me. I still certainly don't support Trump, but I don't have to support Trump in order to support treating Melania fairly and not in a sexist way. I don't need to support Trump to support Melania dressing how she wishes to.

When I want to support a candidate, this sort of mudslinging about a candidate's loved ones makes me take a long angry look at whoever produced that mudslinging.  >:(
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 06:00:37 PM by Blythe »

Offline Renegade Vile

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1027 on: March 23, 2016, 08:57:15 AM »
I won't vote on the poll as I'm not American, but I would have voted for Rand Paul at the start. By now, the only decent option left for me is likely Bernie Sanders.

Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1028 on: March 25, 2016, 12:08:28 PM »
If you are voting this weekend (Dems in AK, HI, and WA),  verify your caucus locations and times before heading out.  Next Republican contest isn't until April.

https://www.demcaucus.com/register  Washington Dems 

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/vi_w_polls.php Alaska (state gov site)

http://elections.hawaii.gov/frequently-asked-questions/election-day-information/ (Hawaii - has phone number)


Offline Oniya

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1029 on: March 27, 2016, 10:36:22 AM »
Bernie won all three caucuses yesterday, bringing his fivethirtyeight goal to 91%.  Hillary is at 107%  Next contest is in Wisconsin on April 5.
Republicans stay the same until the North Dakota contest on the first.  Trump at 96%, Cruz at 53% and Kasich at 22%



Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1030 on: March 27, 2016, 11:49:52 AM »
This is a good time for Sanders.  FiveThrityEight had him projected to win 6 of the last 6 states and 7 out of the next 8.  Yesterday cut Clinton's pledged delegate lead from 300 to 230.  But she keeps getting closer to the magic 2,383 total delegate number:  Clinton is now 671 away and Sanders is 1,379.

Online Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1031 on: March 27, 2016, 01:47:27 PM »
This is a good time for Sanders.  FiveThrityEight had him projected to win 6 of the last 6 states and 7 out of the next 8.  Yesterday cut Clinton's pledged delegate lead from 300 to 230.  But she keeps getting closer to the magic 2,383 total delegate number:  Clinton is now 671 away and Sanders is 1,379.
I think the 671/1379 comparison might not tell the whole story. Take out the superdelegates who have expressed a preference for Clinton and  it's 975 vs 1243 in delegates won through primaries and caucuses. Making up that difference would still require a lot of big wins for Sanders, but those numbers look slightly more manageable. I find it difficult to believe that the superdelegates currently in the Clinton camp would hand her the nomination if Sanders entered the conference with a majority of the popular vote behind him. Personally I doubt Sanders can win the nomination, as it would require a lot of wins by pretty wide margins, but I wouldn't count on the superdelegates to stick to their expressed preference like glue if the wind changes.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1032 on: March 27, 2016, 02:02:36 PM »
Making up that difference would still require a lot of big wins for Sanders, but those numbers look slightly more manageable.

Sure.  The Sanders' camp has been repeating this line for months now.  "Look at the pledged, not the total delegates!!!"  It's spin.  All politicians do it. 

As things stand, right now, those are the numbers.

Online Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1033 on: March 27, 2016, 02:45:39 PM »
Sure.  The Sanders' camp has been repeating this line for months now.  "Look at the pledged, not the total delegates!!!"  It's spin.  All politicians do it.
For the record: I arrived at my opinion just by looking at the numbers. Yes, I would vote for Sanders if I could, but if you think I am just repeating some politician's spin you are mistaken. I try to use my own brain, thank you very much.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1034 on: March 27, 2016, 03:04:30 PM »
I try to use my own brain, thank you very much.

Glad to hear it.

But that doesn't change the fact that the Sanders camp is spinning this issue.

Offline Zillah

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1035 on: March 27, 2016, 05:51:10 PM »
Bernie won all three caucuses yesterday, bringing his fivethirtyeight goal to 91%.  Hillary is at 107%  Next contest is in Wisconsin on April 5.
Republicans stay the same until the North Dakota contest on the first.  Trump at 96%, Cruz at 53% and Kasich at 22%

This isn't terribly surprising, though. Sanders has performed much better in caucuses than in primaries.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1036 on: March 27, 2016, 07:14:24 PM »
So far I have tried to steer clear of the raging debate for and against Donald Trump. Whatever my opinion and how I may vote has shifted because of this attack ad.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/03/22/anti_trump_ads_try_to_win_over_mormons_by_slut_shaming_melania.html

I am very pissed off over the bigoted idiots that have reduced a woman who happens to be married to a candidate to nothing more the a naked body and in doing so she is unfit to be first lady.

Lucky Florida has already voted or I might have changed my vote over this nonsense!!

Are we all now so afraid of Trump that we allow attacks on his wife? I would really want to tell those behind the ad they lost me over it! I figure though since they lost Florida my voice would mean little. I wish there were ways to express my opinion and I hope other women's as well to those behind this sick ad!

Phaia

THIS is why I don't like SuperPacs..they have ZERO accountability. There was one in South Carolina (or a precursor to one) that ran a telephone robocall that basically said that John McCain's adopted daughter was his illegitimate daughter.

In other fun news, I found out why Kasick is still running..
if he drops out supposedly his delegates in Ohio revert to the 2nd place winner (Still trying to verify this..not having a lot of luck) which I know he'd rather set on fire than help.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1037 on: March 28, 2016, 08:19:48 PM »
Hold on.  Sorry folks.  No more talking about how only pledged delegates count.  Now the super delegates matter again.  Says who?

Bernie.

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1038 on: March 28, 2016, 10:02:31 PM »
Really?  You're going to ignore the nuance of it all and just use Exact Words?  I know you think Bernie is ineffective and/or trying to make a power grab on the backs of the common people, but you seem much too intelligent to make a mistake like that.

Superdelegates are a statistically significant portion of the electorate - according to Wikipedia, about one-sixth of the total number of candidates.  Of course they're going to matter.  The point of Bernie's 'superdelegates don't count' argument is to show that they are free to choose who they vote for, IE, the bound delegates - the non-supers - are the ones that must be captured first.

Bernie's strategy has always been populist in nature.  He knows that the superdelegates represent the political establishment - governors, members of the House and Senate, as well as the various peoples within the DNC (and I think I know who they'd vote for).  Bernie knows that his path to victory is to get enough of the working class, the common people, the people who've been snubbed and treated badly by the establishment, on his side that the establishment realizes if they don't back Bernie, then they'll have some very angry people on their hands.

To add on top, a few people are worrying that if Bernie doesn't get the nomination, then a significant portion of his viewers might hop the fence and vote for Trump.  The Guardian, Salon, CNBC, Huffington Post...all of these places have articles saying that these people, these Democrats, will not vote for Hillary.  They'd rather turn coat and join 'the enemy' than continue to play for their own team.

Why?  Because Bernie and Trump have one very major thing in common - they're fighting this political war with a very simple message.  The country is broken, there are people out there who broke it, the people who broke it need to be brought to heel, and the common person needs to be restored within the United States.

Now, who the people are depend on who you're talking to.  Trump says the political correctness/SJW crowd and the media; Bernie says the wealthy and big corporations - but both of them blame the political establishment for letting things get this bad.  Which is why the DNC has been trying to bury Bernie and the RNC is trying to figure out how to put a guy who hates government ahead of Trump.

In addition, the cry of 'supers don't matter' is meant as a way to keep up turnout and encourage people to go out and vote their minds, rather than what the polls are saying.  To give an example.

I decide to run for the seat of Governor of Washingtonia.  My opponent, in the primary election, is Ex-Representative Buttface.  In Washingtonia, 30% of all 1500 delegates for the primary are supers - for a total of 450 - and 800 are needed to win.  The primaries take place over the course of...let's say a month, with a primary every other day.  The first-up primaries are in the big cities, and Buttface wins big there in the first week, garnering 500 of the 800 he needs to win, while I only get 200.  Only 800 delegates left, and I have twice as much ground to cover as Buttface.  What's the normal response from the average person?

"It's over, Reiji has lost, might as well go vote for Buttface."

Except, what goes unsaid, is that 200 of Buttface's 500 are superdelegates.  IE, they can flip over to my side, and now I have 400 compared to only 300 for Buttface.  Now who's closer?

If the people hear that, then they'd say to themselves, "Hey, Reiji's still in this thing, it's not a done deal, I'm going to go vote for Reiji!"

That's what this whole thing is about - keeping people from getting discouraged and not showing up because they think it's over.

In short, if we're going to go by nothing more than the words on the page, yes, now all of a sudden the supers do matter after weeks of saying they don't.  Congratulations.  You win.

But Bernie's strategy hasn't changed one iota.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1039 on: March 28, 2016, 10:07:54 PM »
Buttface for Governor: He Won't Turn The Other Cheek.

Offline Kythia

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1040 on: March 28, 2016, 11:16:27 PM »
Bernie's strategy has always been populist in nature.  He knows that the superdelegates represent the political establishment - governors, members of the House and Senate, as well as the various peoples within the DNC (and I think I know who they'd vote for).  Bernie knows that his path to victory is to get enough of the working class, the common people, the people who've been snubbed and treated badly by the establishment, on his side that the establishment realizes if they don't back Bernie, then they'll have some very angry people on their hands.

I'm confused by this line of argument, sorry.  Bernie is, himself, a superdelegate. I do indeed think I know who he'd vote for.  I'm not clear of the validity of drawing such a line between the political establishment and the long term senator who is a superdelegate.

There was a bit of snark there but not as much as it may seem - I'm not American and it may well be there is an actual difference that answers my question.

Also:  Vote Buttface.  We know where he's speaking from.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1041 on: March 28, 2016, 11:28:08 PM »
I'm confused by this line of argument, sorry.  Bernie is, himself, a superdelegate. I do indeed think I know who he'd vote for.  I'm not clear of the validity of drawing such a line between the political establishment and the long term senator who is a superdelegate.

There was a bit of snark there but not as much as it may seem - I'm not American and it may well be there is an actual difference that answers my question.

Also:  Vote Buttface.  We know where he's speaking from.

The intent of the argument, and the line of reasoning that leads to it, is that said 'political establishment' is seen by many as insular and self-serving. The big-money donors and the high-profile candidates that they support are seen as only looking to each other's needs, in a cycle of donations, lobbying, and kickbacks or favorable legislation/policies; an elite minority, essentially. Bernie, while a member of this elite minority and establishment, has built his campaign, and indeed (most of) his career presenting himself as the champion of the 'common man' instead. So while he is a superdelegate, the ideal is that he is essentially a 'rebel' against his own 'class'.

I honestly can't think of any European analogue to make the explanation easier, but then I don't know much about any European governmental structure except that of Britain, and even then only slightly.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 11:31:17 PM by TheGlyphstone »

Offline Kythia

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1042 on: March 28, 2016, 11:34:51 PM »
Thanks but honestly that kinda raises even more questions.  So the democrat party watched him be senatorial as an independent for god knows how long and then let him in the party and made him a superdelegate without realising he was a rebel?  Are they just really stupid?

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1043 on: March 28, 2016, 11:57:44 PM »
That, I can't answer - though while he was Independent, his voting record has consistently been with the Democrats over the Republicans on the usual party-line issues, so he was considered an 'ally' among the independents as far as that can be counted in Congress on the issues that mattered even if he consistently clashed with them on stuff they considered less important. I suppose they considered him a safe place to put one of their superdelegate slots? Honestly, I've looked through the internet and found next to no reliable information on how they are even selected, let alone how they can be changed or revoked, so I can't even speculate.

Offline Kythia

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1044 on: March 29, 2016, 12:00:32 AM »
Fair enough.  Thanks

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1045 on: March 29, 2016, 12:06:00 AM »
Buttface for Governor: He Won't Turn The Other Cheek.

Also:  Vote Buttface.  We know where he's speaking from.

America: Making Hilarious Bumper Stickers Out of Brilliant Illustrations


Thanks but honestly that kinda raises even more questions.  So the democrat party watched him be senatorial as an independent for god knows how long and then let him in the party and made him a superdelegate without realising he was a rebel?  Are they just really stupid?

First.  Yes.  They - they being the DNC - are that stupid.  You have to understand.  Hillary Clinton has been hyped as the next Democratic President for the last decade.  Before the rise of Obama, Hillary was considered to be the running candidate after Bush Jr was gone.  Obama winning in 2008 did not change the establishment's boner for putting another Clinton in the White House.  In fact, Obama helped make this candidacy possible by pulling a Lincoln and making Hillary his Secretary of State.  If he hadn't given her the cabinet position, she would be nowhere near as well-poised for this campaign as she is. 

Hillary being made SecState let her stay in the game of presidential hopeful for a little bit longer...but this time, she has to win.  She knows it, the political establishment knows it.  If she loses now, there is no place for her to go, she is done.  This simple fact has been known since she took up the cabinet position.  So the response of the Democratic establishment has been to hype her, and use their considerable influence to ensure that she is the only one being talked about for this race.

The establishment looked at Bernie and basically saw him as the Democratic Trump.  Yeah, he's popular; yeah, he says things that people like; but he won't last.  That was their attitude.  But he has lasted, because people are tired of getting screwed and feeling like, as Glyph said, the political establishment, the donors, the lobbyists, it's all a big bubble inside of Washington, that they basically rule and ruin the country with no accountability to the voters.  People are tired of corporations screaming about minimum wages and lost jobs when they post billion-digit profits every year, and get tax refunds from the government on top of that.  People are tired of having to chuck money into a broken healthcare system.  (What good is #1 in quality in the world if you can't afford it?)

In short, just as the GOP failed to anticipate the rise of Trump, the DNC failed to anticipate Bernie Sanders.

Thing #2.  Bernie Sanders ran as a Democrat primarily because he's not an idiot.  Third-party candidates have never done all that well, because our political system is based around two parties (a major problem I've had with American politics since I've been old enough to follow them).  If you're inside the party, good.  If you're not, you tend to get the short and smacky end of the stick.

Online Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1046 on: March 29, 2016, 01:53:00 AM »
That, I can't answer - though while he was Independent, his voting record has consistently been with the Democrats over the Republicans on the usual party-line issues, so he was considered an 'ally' among the independents as far as that can be counted in Congress on the issues that mattered even if he consistently clashed with them on stuff they considered less important.
It's not just his voting record (also he has worked with Republicans in the past), but he has also caucused with the Democrats since 1991.

Edit: Just found an article on Politifact that goes into the question if Sanders is a Democrat or not. Perhaps the most important part answering Kythia's question how Sanders became a Democrat candidate is this (my emphasis):
Quote
In his 2016 presidential bid, Sanders seems to oscillate between labeling himself as a Democrat and being an independent. But that’s neither inaccurate nor particularly unusual, experts said.

Unlike elsewhere in the world, joining the two major parties isn’t contingent upon membership fees or an application process. Party leaders also don’t have the power to say someone isn’t a Democrat or a Republican.

So political affiliation in the United States is a matter of self-identification, in both the governing system and the party organizations, experts said. That allows Sanders and other elected officials to be flexible.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2016, 01:59:43 AM by Cassandra LeMay »

Offline Kythia

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Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1047 on: March 29, 2016, 06:45:07 AM »
I like the fact that in six sentences they used "experts said" twice.  Leaves me in no doubt about who said it and what the experts did.

It's interesting but my question wasn't so much "how is he a democrat" it was, originally, more "how is he outside the political establishment?"  He's been a senator for years, he's been associated with democrats for years to the extent they made him a superdelegate - the class that is frequently referenced in this thread as literally the embodiment of the political elite.  Like, imagine I was describing someone:

Quote
He's been a professional politician for thirty five years, associated with a political party for twenty five years.  He holds high office in that party, being one of the people responsible for deciding who their presidential candidate will be.  He's the ranking member of an influential committee, chairman of another and ranking member on yet another subcomittee.

Would you say "yeah, pretty much a rock solid part of the political establishment" or "holy crap, will he be able to find the White House alright?".  I'm more confused about the rhetoric surrounding him being a rebel/outsider than anything else.  Once again, that isn't 100% snark, there may be valid answers and I would like to hear them, but from an outsider's point of view it really does look like people just want him to be the anti-Trump and so are constructing a fictitious narrative where he is entirely different to Hilary because of his maverick credentials.

Online Cassandra LeMay

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1048 on: March 29, 2016, 07:06:35 AM »
... he's been associated with democrats for years to the extent they made him a superdelegate...
I am not sure if they "made" him a superdelegate or if that comes with the office he holds. Could well be that every representative and senator automaticlly becomes a superdelegate by virtue of their office, if they declare their affiliation with the Democrats. That would be a bit different from an active choice made by the party leadership.


Would you say "yeah, pretty much a rock solid part of the political establishment" or "holy crap, will he be able to find the White House alright?".  I'm more confused about the rhetoric surrounding him being a rebel/outsider than anything else.  Once again, that isn't 100% snark, there may be valid answers and I would like to hear them, but from an outsider's point of view it really does look like people just want him to be the anti-Trump and so are constructing a fictitious narrative where he is entirely different to Hilary because of his maverick credentials.
I'd say he may look like a part of the political establishment to a European, but to an American things may appear somewhat different. For years now the conventional political wisdom has been that elections are won on the center ground. That's not so different here in Germany, by the way, where the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has drifted more to the center over the years. But what I think makes a difference is that the "American political center" may be somewhat more conservative, more "right" if you will, than Europeans might traditionally associate with those categories. A self-declared scoial democrat or democratic socialist will hardly cause raised eyebrows this side of the Atlantic, but it is something of an outlier position in the US.

Offline Cycle

Re: The Big Thread For the USA 2016 Presidential Candidates [Poll updated!]
« Reply #1049 on: March 29, 2016, 11:08:23 AM »
Really?  You're going to ignore the nuance of it all and just use Exact Words?

I think you misunderstood the point I was making.  Read that Politico article again.
Quote
But Sanders campaign aides say they’ll be able to keep Clinton from reaching the 2,383 delegate magic number she’d need to clinch the nomination at the convention and, by being close enough, convince the superdelegates to switch

The superdelegate argument advanced by the Sanders' Camp earlier was:  ignore the superdelegates, they will flip when Sanders wins the pledged delegate count, the superdelegates must not override the will of the people!!!

The superdelegate argument advanced by the Sanders' Camp now is:  the superdelegates should vote for Sanders even if he doesn't have the lead in pledged delegates or the popular vote.  So, forget "the will of the people" thing we were talking about earlier.  We didn't mean it.

Here's an article from MSNBC that digs into Sanders' new tactic:
Quote
So, Rachel asked again whether he might try to convince superdelegates to side with him, even if he’s behind in pledged delegates. Sanders said he and his campaign are “going to do the best we can in any and every way to win,” but he still avoided comment on the specific approach he’s prepared to take.

And one from the Washington Post (which also reveals several other flaws with Sanders' latest argument):
Quote
Sanders’s broader aim is the more important one: getting super-delegates as a group, including in states that backed Clinton, to support him.

Sanders wants to win, clearly, and will say and do what he needs to in order to achieve that goal. 



So the democrat party watched him be senatorial as an independent for god knows how long and then let him in the party and made him a superdelegate without realising he was a rebel?  Are they just really stupid?

Well, it's not like they keep him out.  He gets to choose if he wants to be identified as a Democrat. 
Quote
So political affiliation in the United States is a matter of self-identification, in both the governing system and the party organizations, experts said. That allows Sanders and other elected officials to be flexible.

DNC Convention Rule 9.A.3 then makes him a superdelegate.  So no, it's not so much as the DNC is "that stupid," as Bernie is that good at playing the game.



Thing #2.  Bernie Sanders ran as a Democrat primarily because he's not an idiot.

Sanders is running as a Democrat because it is the best way for him to achieve what he wants.  He's smart, cunning, and very good at playing politics.
Quote
“Here is a very simple fact of life,” said Garrison Nelson, a political science professor at the University of Vermont. “Bernie is the only socialist candidate I’ve ever met who wants to win. That’s the key to Bernie. He is one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met — very competitive, very smart. Because people think he’s a wooly-headed crazy man, they don’t understand how cunning he is.”