What's in the news?

[gaggedLouise]

I saw a story just now about a mass shooting near San Antonio:

http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/multiple-victims-after-texas-church-shooting/news-story/2a56e4c46d786486789273daae989d5e

Having been to San Antonio before (and I have friends there), it's sad to see it happening near there.

...and Trump says, with his usual lack of style, that  he's "monitoring the situation from Japan". 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/927265906086031363

Ten to one that the shooter turns out to be a white supremacist, or has some sort of clear racist connections.

[TheGlyphstone]

Is there any indication at all that the church membership was racially homogenous?

[Beguile's Mistress]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/breakingnews/more-than-20-dead-after-shooting-at-sutherland-springs-church/ar-AAutjLF?li=BBnb7Kz

This is a bit more about the church, the community and the congregation.


I'm also listening to news reports and the commentator has said that this is such a small, tight-knit community that there literally no one in the town who does not know someone who has been killed or injured.

[Oniya]

Is there any indication at all that the church membership was racially homogenous?

If you're asking if the congregation was exclusively/predominantly minority, the pictures in the article don't look like it.  Several shots captioned as 'congregant' or 'family' show Caucasian men and women.  Demographics would suggest a predominantly white congregation, by virtue of the fact that there are under 20 non-Caucasians in the entire town.

[Regina Minx]

I feel the need to quote David Frum.

"[D]espite the predictable recurrence of these crimes, Americans have developed a strong taboo against ever discussing or even thinking about them. When the killer strikes, it is 'too soon.' The next day, it is 'too late'; we have all moved onto the next topic. Then comes the next massacre, and it is 'too soon' all over again.

Like ancient villagers, Americans accept periodic plagues as a visitation from the gods, about which nothing can or should be done. The only permitted response is 'thoughts and prayers'—certainly never rational action to reduce casualties in future. Even to open the discussion as to whether something might not be done violates the taboos of decency: How dare you politicize this completely unpredictable and uncontrollable event! It is as if gun violence were inscrutable to the mind of man, utterly beyond human control.

The fact that such things do not happen anywhere else with anything approaching the same frequency—that too is the work of some ineffable mystery. Who can say why such things happen so seldom in Canada and Australia and Britain and Germany and France, and so often in the United States? Who would be rude enough even to wonder?

A few hours before the attack on the Alexandria playing field, a lower-income housing tower erupted in flames in London. At least six people lost their lives; 20 more remain in critical condition at latest report. In an interview conducted even as firefighters battled the blaze, the mayor of London said, 'There will be a great many questions over the coming days as to the cause of this tragedy and I want to reassure Londoners that we will get all the answers.' About fires, apparently, it is permitted to use human reason. But not about firearms! Against the much greater toll from those, the only remedy—the only approved response—is to send 'thoughts and prayers.'"

What I'm saying is that there's going to be lots of news stories. Lots of prayers and thoughts and bad feelings. But then things go on, and we won't change a fucking thing.

[Beguile's Mistress]

I wish Trump would just keep his mouth shut and let someone with a brain make comments on his behalf. 

[Beguile's Mistress]

The governor just spoke in the county where the shooting took place and confirmed that 26 people have been killed and many others injured and range in ages from 5 to 78 years old.  A citizen engaged the suspect after he exited the church.  He's dead, dressed in all black and tactical gear and a flak vest.  He dropped his gun, a Ruger assault type rifle, and escaped in his vehicle.  He ran off the road and was found dead in the truck but he actual means of his demise was not reported.

Because the investigation in in the early stages there is very little more information to report.  Many questions; few answers at this time.

[Mithlomwen]

Suspect has been identified.  I won't post his pic, but he's been identified as Devin Patrick Kelley age 26 from Comal Co, Texas.

As I figured, he's a white male from the United States. 

Just ugh. 

[Lustful Bride]

Suspect has been identified.  I won't post his pic, but he's been identified as Devin Patrick Kelley age 26 from Comal Co, Texas.

As I figured, he's a white male from the United States. 

Just ugh.

....am I missing something? Was the attack racially based or am I just misunderstanding some context?

[Beguile's Mistress]

No one knows what motivated the attack yet.  He's white.  The community is white.  The congregation appears to be all white. 

[Vergil Tanner]

Yeah, but jumping to racial motivations because he just so happens to be white is silly.

Does anybody know the numbers in terms of the victims? 26 dead and 20 injured, apparently, but I can't find accurate demographics on who the victims were (male / female, black / white / latin / asian, etc etc). Anybody have any idea?

[Beguile's Mistress]

Yeah, but jumping to racial motivations because he just so happens to be white is silly.

Does anybody know the numbers in terms of the victims? 26 dead and 20 injured, apparently, but I can't find accurate demographics on who the victims were (male / female, black / white / latin / asian, etc etc). Anybody have any idea?

The governor just spoke in the county where the shooting took place and confirmed that 26 people have been killed and many others injured and range in ages from 5 to 78 years old.  A citizen engaged the suspect after he exited the church.  He's dead, dressed in all black and tactical gear and a flak vest.  He dropped his gun, a Ruger assault type rifle, and escaped in his vehicle.  He ran off the road and was found dead in the truck but he actual means of his demise was not reported.

Because the investigation in in the early stages there is very little more information to report.  Many questions; few answers at this time.

The above information has not been updated because no new information has been given out by the officers investigating the shooting.  Family members haven't all been notified yet (the pastor and his wife were out of town and their 14-year-old daughter is one of the dead) and names and details will not be reported until all family members have been given information.

Lately, it has been reported that video tape of the service was being made but police are not giving out any information from that yet.

Tune in to CNN for ongoing live reporting.

[Vergil Tanner]

I can't, since I'm in China, not America. I'll keep an eye on the headlines, though.

[Beguile's Mistress]

A reporter a the scene said he spoke with a man who goes to the church every Sunday.  He slept in today and is now mourning the wife of his cousin who was eight months pregnant and three of their five children.  One of the other two is in the hospital fighting for their life.

This is an agricultural community with a sparse population that is highly invested in helping each other because police coverage and government help is minimal and spread out.  People are in shock but as happens in communities like tis they are pulling together to support each other. 

Send prayers and letters of support to:  First Baptist Church - 216 4th St, Sutherland Springs, TX 78161.  Let them know we care.


Something has deactivated the Modify option on this thread or I would have tried to update a previous post.

I can't, since I'm in China, not America. I'll keep an eye on the headlines, though.

I didn't realize that.  I'll keep posting until I fall asleep.

[Mithlomwen]

I wasn't trying to imply that it was racially motivated. 

Just that it seems that too many mass shootings in the U.S are carried out by white males. 

[Lustful Bride]

I wasn't trying to imply that it was racially motivated. 

Just that it seems that too many mass shootings in the U.S are carried out by white males.

I think its more because the government treats non white mass shootings as just gang violence and such. But there have been some done by others.

[Vergil Tanner]

And remember, the USA is majority white (something like...what, 70%? Numbers vary a little, so I'll go for the average here), so you would expect the majority of crime to be committed by white people simply because there's more of them. Likewise, in South Africa, you'd expect the majority of crime to be committed by black people, since there are larger populations of blacks than whites.

This gives us a general idea of how many there were by race, if the statistics are accurate.

So according to the chart, there have been 91 mass shootings since 1982. So by race...

White: 56% (70% of the population)
Black: 16.5% (12% of the population)
Latino: 7.6% (7% of the population)
Asian: 7.6% (5.6% of the population)
Native American: 3.2% (2% of the population)
Other: 5.4% (4% of the population (whatever "Other" means) )
Unknown: 3.3%

(Numbers are rounded to the nearest decimal place, approximately)

Eh. About the spread I'd expect, honestly.

[Oniya]

Yeah, but jumping to racial motivations because he just so happens to be white is silly.

Does anybody know the numbers in terms of the victims? 26 dead and 20 injured, apparently, but I can't find accurate demographics on who the victims were (male / female, black / white / latin / asian, etc etc). Anybody have any idea?

Demographics of the town itself is predominantly white.  (Eyeball estimate 60% white, maybe a third or so Hispanic).  Pictures in articles about the incident show almost exclusively white people, although as mentioned, the county does have a moderate Hispanic community - virtually no African-Americans or Native Americans; and Asian/Pacific Islander doesn't even register on the pie-chart.

[Trigon]

Another massive set of leaks has been released, know only as the Paradise Papers: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/05/paradise-papers-leak-reveals-secrets-of-world-elites-hidden-wealth

This isn't looking good for the legitimacy of our governments worldwide...

[Lustful Bride]

Another massive set of leaks has been released, know only as the Paradise Papers: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/05/paradise-papers-leak-reveals-secrets-of-world-elites-hidden-wealth

This isn't looking good for the legitimacy of our governments worldwide...

I'm kind unsurprised. :/  It just tells me the world worked exactly the way I thought it did.

[Lustful Bride]

Helicopter crash claims the life of Saudi Prince

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/saudi-prince-killed-in-helicopter-crash/ar-AAutXyZ?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=HPCOMMDHP15

[Regina Minx]

So according to the chart, there have been 91 mass shootings since 1982. So by race...

(raises hand) I have a slight problem with your source.

There is no standard definition of what constitutes a mass shooting. Most news outlets and research papers will therefore define what a mass shooting is before presenting information about it. The source you cite may do so as well, but if so it's behind their paywall and I can't access it.

But however your source is defining, they are using a rareified subset of mass murder in the US. Because 91 over a 35 year perior?

Yeah, that's ridiculously low when a broader definition has identified 307 this year alone.

Another issue I'm taking is that, again, there's no teasing apart in the data about how they define 'white' when reporting the racial demographics of the killers. As Slate reported, the definition of whiteness is both vague and forever changing.  In the 2010 census, for instance, the “white” category includes those whose families originate in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

I'm not saying your source is wrong or that those trends they report don't bear out.  But clearly, they are reporting of a subsample of a much broader range of incidents in which two or more people were murdered at the same time by firearm by a single perpetrator. And without knowing precisely how much of a subsample or how they drew it, we should be cautious about accepting their data reporting as indicative of mass shootings beyond the subset.

[Vergil Tanner]

I agree, but it was the best source I could find on short notice, and even if we take the 309 figure from the other source you linked as roughly accurate, a third of a given "Group" is still a decent sample size. I would agree that accepting it as gospel is probably not the best thing to be doing, but I think that the general point of the statistics bears out. It shows the kind of numbers we would expect, given population sizes relative within the USA. That in and of itself isn't a reason to accept the statistics, but it's more reasonable than if the chart said - for example - that blacks carried out 70% of mass shootings despite only being like...15% of the overall population.

[Regina Minx]

I agree, but it was the best source I could find on short notice, and even if we take the 309 figure from the other source you linked as roughly accurate, a third of a given "Group" is still a decent sample size

Wait, what? A third of a given group? No, that's wrong. If the source you cited is only crediting 91 mass shootings since 1982, then only much smaller number of shootings is going to overlap their sample with the 307 in the ABC article I linked (specifically however many of the 91 mass shootings from 1982 also occurred within 2017).

Let's just say, hypothetically, that your source identifies 5 mass shootings in their data reporting for 2017. You're now looking at an overlap of 5 cases out of the 307 in the ABC article, and they aren't a random sampling from which inferences can be drawn. They are going to be cases that share whatever features your source uses to identify a mass shooting, which we've already discussed is unknown behind their paywall. We can't generalize against a forced choice of 5 cases out of the 307 shootings that ABC references. Now if you want to RANDOMLY select 5 cases from the set of 307 and generalize from that, we can talk about the implications and limitations of the data.

Without knowing how your source defines mass shootings, we can only talk about its data with heavy caveats and limitations, and we certainly can't make any kind of comparison to a different data set. What you're essentially trying to do is average a temperature read from two different thermometers without knowing if one of them is measuring in Celsius.

[Lustful Bride]

Despite the atrocities committed, I want to say that the people who actually stood up to the shooter deserve some praise. Very few people out there would have the fortitude to push back against evil.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/breakingnews/an-unlikely-hero-describes-gun-battle-and-95-mph-chase-with-texas-shooting-suspect/ar-AAuuwvr?li=BBnb4R7&ocid=HPCOMMDHP15