Check out this article I found from a few days ago discussing who might win: https://newrepublic.com/article/137496/will-win-2016-nobel-prize-literature
Yep, they're listing Bob Dylan as one of half a dozen great American writers who won't win the prize....The link to a piece about Dylan in a break high up in the article has been added by some bot after he won, that's for sure.
There's always been bets on him through the years, but it was more or less his fans betting on him. I think Ladbrokes had the odds 500 to 1 on him a couple years back.
The live coverage on Swedish tv at 1 o'clock today was actually funny, because before the announcement there were a few critics in a studio talking about who would be the hot candidates (Ngugi Wa'Thiongo, Murakami, Algerian female writer Assia Djebar, long-exiled Syrian poet Adonis and a few more), then they cut to the building where the Academy resides, Ms Danius came out and read out the name to wild applause and took some questions - and when the camera cut back to the studio, no one there made any secret of how surprised and even a bit deflated they felt. One of them actually said "With this one and Svetlana Alexeyeva last year, they have broken all the normal rules for what counts, what you'd expect" for a first-rate literary prize.
It could very likely be a choice that came about after there's been two factions inside the circle, with a minority supporting somebody else - but unless someone wants to speak to the press (never heard of with these guys, they are masters of keeping silent about the selection process) we won't know for fifty years.