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Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 13710 times)

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Offline Chris Brady

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #375 on: July 17, 2014, 04:00:01 PM »
This is completely unrelated? The plane I'm talking about is a civilian Boeing 777 from Malaysian Airlines, not a military Antonov.

The issue is that we don't have all the reasons.  Russia is known for shooting down any hijacked aircraft, no negotiation.  What we don't know so far is why the plane got shot down.

@Chris... give the regions more autonomy.
So you MAY (and again, this is a supposition, not fact) end up with situations like Washington D.C. which is a sorta city-state that's surrounded by other states.  Imagine that situation, but you have a Russian city-state(s) surrounded by Ukrainian ones.  Do you HONESTLY anyone would play nice in that situation?

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #376 on: July 17, 2014, 04:07:52 PM »


@TheGlyphstone... Dutch ATC have no role in this. They cleared the plane according to their flight plan. Malaysian Airlines saw no reason to change the route. Flying around Ukraine is a rather big detour and with the range, conditions and passengers, the airplane might not be able to fly the distance with the extra miles. Also it's not for airline to decide whether or not it's safe to fly. Whoever controls the European skies, in other word, the European FAA, should have decided whether or not it was safe. If anybody not involved in the war was to blame for this, it's them. There was a KLM 747 10 minutes behind the Malaysian Airlines and that got diverted by Ukrainian Air Traffic Control and the airspace over that part of Ukraine got closed.

Better late then never I guess.

The Euro FAA then, or MA - it's true that once the plane was out of Amsterdam airspace, the ATC was hands-off. The only thing rerouting would do is cost extra fuel and time, which means extra money. 300+ dead passengers and flight crew buys a hell of a lot of airplane fuel, so if they put their plane and the people at risk to save money, still negligent. It's good that they started diverting after the tragedy, but that doesn't excuse them for not closing the airspace before it happened, which was exactly my point.

Like Louise pointed out, they routinely divert flight paths around volcanic ash, and sometimes even particularly nasty storm formations (if the plane can't safely go above or below them). An environment where multiple planes had already been shot down by SAMs is significantly more threatening than an ash cloud or thunderstorm.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 04:10:50 PM by TheGlyphstone »

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #377 on: July 17, 2014, 04:15:03 PM »
Also, airlines are completely free to reroute their own planes as long as it doesn't lead to hazard to other planes. Of course the airline in question is ultimately responsible for what risks they are going to take with the aircraft - and taking a safer route is in a completely different ball park than trying to land at, let's say, a half-flooded or hazardous airfield because the plane has been rerouted out of some other kind of danger.

You bet Malaysian could have freely defied a directive from the European FAA saying they did not need to reroute a plane to keep it off the farthest eastern part of Ukraine.

(posted this in reply to Dashenka before I saw Glyphstone had simultaneously added to his latest post)


Edit: Apparently MAS and many other airlines thought the altitude of 33.000 feet (more than 10 km) put planes safely out of reach of any kind of normal ground-based anti-aircraft guns or movable launch pads, the kind of guns they thought could be at work in the region, so they deemed it safe to keep flying in the region and across the Ukrainian/Russian border. Looks like they will soon have to think over their game plans.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 07:31:03 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Oreo

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #378 on: July 17, 2014, 04:28:46 PM »
Just sticking my nose in so I can keep up with whatever facts turn up about the incident.

Truly sad that it happened at all.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #379 on: July 17, 2014, 04:30:26 PM »
We don't usually agree but on this we do :) The Russian equipment could come from anywhere though. Most of the Ukranian army also uses Russian hardware so technically it could come from both sides. But I hope they find whoever is responsible for this and take appropriate matters.

 Agreed. I do not think Russia did this. It's an insane thing to have shot down a civilian airliner. I have many doubts and dislikes of the Russian government, but I don;t think they'd be this stupid. not by direct orders. The only way I can think of a Russian military unit shooting down an airliner is if they went rogue. but by government orders (even secret orders)?  No. There's no benefit to it and it hurts them far more than it helps them. They might have supplied the equipment, but a lot of Ukrainian equipment is Russian made too so it is likely to be hard to determine where the missile came from. Russian gear given to separatists or repatriated Russian made Ukrainian  gear? No, on this I will say it wasn't Russia that did it.

The issue is that we don't have all the reasons.  Russia is known for shooting down any hijacked aircraft, no negotiation.  What we don't know so far is why the plane got shot down.
So you MAY (and again, this is a supposition, not fact) end up with situations like Washington D.C. which is a sorta city-state that's surrounded by other states.  Imagine that situation, but you have a Russian city-state(s) surrounded by Ukrainian ones.  Do you HONESTLY anyone would play nice in that situation?

 We don't know it was a threat. If fit was, then why isn't there any word on it by anyone? For any nation, even Russia, to have shot it down, they would need a hell of as lot of proof before anyone would accept it. Especially since the airliner wasn't even in Russian airspace when it was shot down

Offline Zakharra

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #380 on: July 17, 2014, 08:14:40 PM »
   It looks like separatists did the deed.
 http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_29/Donetsk-militia-takes-control-of-Ukrainian-anti-air-installation-1561/
 alternate source:  https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/489802664264212480/photo/1
 http://web.archive.org/web/20140717155720/https://vk.com/wall-57424472_7256
 http://i.imgur.com/KJ0h3nZ.png
 
 Recorded conversation between separatists: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=V5E8kDo2n6g

  Transcript:

Subtitled: 17.07.2014. Bezler group terrorists have shot down a passanger plane Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines using air missile system. At 16:40 Bezler has reported to his coordinator GRU colonel Geranin Vasiliy Mykolayovich.
Bezler: "Just downed a plane. "Miner" group. It has fallen behind Enakievo.
Geranin: "Pilots? Where are the pilots?"
Bezler: "Went to look for and photo the downed plane. It's smoking..."
Geranin: "How many minutes ago?"
Bezler: "Approximately 30 minutes ago"
Subtites: After examining the plane terrorists have concluded they've downed the civilian aircraft.
"Greek" (apparently a nickname): "Yes, major!"
"Major" (same here): "Allright. So the "chernuhinskie" have downed the plane. From Chernuhinskiy check point. Cosacs that are located at Chernuhino." "The plane has colapsed in the air, around the Petropavlovsk mine. We found the first "two hundred" (dead person). It's a civilian"
Greek: "What's going on there?"
Major: "In short, [shit], its 100% a civilian plane"
Greek: "[Fuck] are there a lot of people?"
Major: "Fucking shit. The parts have fallen right in the backyards."
Greek: "What kind of plane?"
Major: "I haven't figured out yet. I haven't been to the main part. I am only looking where the first bodies started to fall. There are the remainders of inside connections, seats, bodies."
Greek: "Understood. Any weaponry?"
Major: "Nothing at all. Civilian belongings, medical remainders, towels, toilet paper"
Greek: "Any documents?"
Major: "Yes. Of Indonesian student. From Thompson University"
terrorist: "About the plane, downed around Snizhne - Torez. It came out to be a passenger plane. It has collapsed near Grabovo, there is a sea of dead bodies, women and children. Cosacs are looking at it now. They are reporting on TV that it is a Ukrainian transport An-26, but they say it says Malaysian Airlines on it. What was it doing on Ukrainian territory?"
M. Kozicin: "Means they were transporting spies. Shouldn't fukn fly there, it's war now'

 Source:
 http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2azbho/updated_sbu_video_of_terrorists_talking_about_the/



  Apparently the separatists have the black box and will only give it to Russia. This puts Russia in somewhat of a bind.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #381 on: July 17, 2014, 08:27:34 PM »
If that is true, then now watch all hell break loose.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #382 on: July 17, 2014, 09:54:35 PM »
Especially if the Major there is the spokesman, or the separatist leadership decides to listen to him. 'Oops, Our Bad - , but "Shouldn't fukn fly there, it's war now" would be honest if rather callous. But trying to excuse it by saying the civilian airliner was actually a disguised transport full of spies is just terrible, terrible frosting on the PR disaster cake.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #383 on: July 17, 2014, 11:03:27 PM »
  Slight side note; Putin might be already looking to put forth claims to the entire southern part of Ukraine, as a part of Russia. Namely, Novorossiya or “New Russia. Historical claims, much like he used as a reason to invade (and it was an invasion since they have admitted their troops were in the Crimea region) the Crimean Peninsula to get it back into Russia.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html

 I'm afraid he will try to use much the same excuse to try and get those regions to vote themselves into Russia.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #384 on: July 18, 2014, 01:30:54 AM »
Especially if the Major there is the spokesman, or the separatist leadership decides to listen to him. 'Oops, Our Bad - , but "Shouldn't fukn fly there, it's war now" would be honest if rather callous. But trying to excuse it by saying the civilian airliner was actually a disguised transport full of spies is just terrible, terrible frosting on the PR disaster cake.

Yeah, the same excuse that was utilized by the Kremlin after the shooting down of a South Korean airliner in the Russian far east thirty years ago, back at the height of the Cold war. Fairly similar kind of story, except that plane was taking a flight corridor it wasn't supposed to be taking at all - back then of course there was no such thing as western(non-eastern-bloc passenger aircraft flying over Siberia or over Russian territorial waters... (the reason the pilots did make the gamble of slipping inside Soviet airspace for many hundreds of miles after all may have been to cut corners and save up on fuel and flying time)

This shooting down is...really one of the worst things that could have been tossed into the cocktail around eastern Ukraine. Not just a callous, ugly act, but it adds a whole new level of volatility.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 01:32:49 AM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Dashenka

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #385 on: July 18, 2014, 01:57:00 AM »
It's what Aiden already reported. Sounds like the most logical thing that could have happened. Rebels thinking they shoot a military aircraft. At 33.000 feet, I guess they all look the same.

I don't see how all hell is going to break loose now though Amber? EU and US haven't done anything in Ukraine so far and I doubt this will change anything.

Giving the black boxes to Russia does put Russia in a bit of a tight spot. Nobody would believe the results of the investigation and by international law, the plane crashed in Ukraine so that country has to do the investigation. Since the plane was American, I guess the NTSB will have some say in it and perhaps the Malaysian authorities and the Dutch as well. Problem then is, whatever the outcome, Russia will probably not acknowledge it.

That said, if it was shot down, there's not much to investigate.



Zakharra, I've seen the interview and read the article. I think what you say is a way of interpreting what he said. I didn't make that out of it. Also the term Novorossiya is not exactly what that article says it is. It's the area that was captured from the Ottoman Empire by the Russian Empire and was then called Novorossiya. After the October revolution, the Russian Empire lost it again.

Crimea has been Russian up to after WWII when it was signed over by an alledgedly drunk president to Ukraine. It's a completely different situation.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #386 on: July 18, 2014, 02:30:58 AM »
Civilians from countries that were not involved in the conflict getting randomly killed, that's a surefire way to get a conflict hotter (excuse bad punning!). So far, there had been very few foreigners killed in the conflict - now suddenly there's near 300 of them, most of them Dutch or Malaysian but most likely from many different countries. The governments of all of those countries just landed with a really hot potato in their laps and there's going to be a lot of expectations on them to get to hear where those missiles came from, who did the shooting-down, who to ask...Unlike in Russia itself, in an open society like the Netherlands or let's say Australia the aftermath of this kind of thing can't get pushed under the rug or treated as a bunch of diplomatic and propaganda phrases.

While the Netherlands had a formal stake in the crisis before as an EU member, they had no urgent issues of their own that needed to get cleared up with the eastern Ukrainian separatists and Russia. Now they have.

Offline ladia2287

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #387 on: July 18, 2014, 03:14:43 AM »
Civilians from countries that were not involved in the conflict getting randomly killed, that's a surefire way to get a conflict hotter (excuse bad punning!). So far, there had been very few foreigners killed in the conflict - now suddenly there's near 300 of them, most of them Dutch or Malaysian but most likely from many different countries. The governments of all of those countries just landed with a really hot potato in their laps and there's going to be a lot of expectations on them to get to hear where those missiles came from, who did the shooting-down, who to ask...Unlike in Russia itself, in an open society like the Netherlands or let's say Australia the aftermath of this kind of thing can't get pushed under the rug or treated as a bunch of diplomatic and propaganda phrases.

While the Netherlands had a formal stake in the crisis before as an EU member, they had no urgent issues of their own that needed to get cleared up with the eastern Ukrainian separatists and Russia. Now they have.

It's absolutely sad, and MAS is probably going to be feeling the sting for a long time to come; the world is still watching for any new developments in the investigation of missing flight MH370 and two disasters in such a short space of time would rattle even the most loyal of regular passengers, even with the fact that the plane appears to have been shot down by external sources.

This particular incident has had one effect, however, and that is that it's probably going to force other countries to get involved in the crisis in Crimea. Even the US and Australia, whose military resources are already spread scarily thin, will need to at contribute something to the conflict between Russia, Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula. The problem is that I don't think it's going to be enough, unfortunately. A lot of countries who might have been in a position to offer direct help are already knees-deep in other conflicts and at most might be able to insist on a trading embargo. Others either don't have the military capacity or else they just can't afford it.

And let's be perfectly honest, if Putin was the kind of president who was worried at the prospect of trading embargoes being enforced on the country he is running, then he wouldn't have invaded Crimea in the first place.

Offline Dice

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #388 on: July 18, 2014, 05:14:55 AM »
We don't usually agree but on this we do :) The Russian equipment could come from anywhere though. Most of the Ukranian army also uses Russian hardware so technically it could come from both sides. But I hope they find whoever is responsible for this and take appropriate matters.

@TheGlyphstone... Dutch ATC have no role in this. They cleared the plane according to their flight plan. Malaysian Airlines saw no reason to change the route. Flying around Ukraine is a rather big detour and with the range, conditions and passengers, the airplane might not be able to fly the distance with the extra miles. Also it's not for airline to decide whether or not it's safe to fly. Whoever controls the European skies, in other word, the European FAA, should have decided whether or not it was safe. If anybody not involved in the war was to blame for this, it's them. There was a KLM 747 10 minutes behind the Malaysian Airlines and that got diverted by Ukrainian Air Traffic Control and the airspace over that part of Ukraine got closed.

Better late then never I guess.
Just to point out, many airlines have been avoiding the airspace for a while now. Have a look at this:


Source:
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/airlines-including-qantas-quit-flying-over-ukraine-airspace-months-ago/story-fnizu68q-1226993758257

Offline Zakharra

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #389 on: July 18, 2014, 09:10:02 AM »
Zakharra, I've seen the interview and read the article. I think what you say is a way of interpreting what he said. I didn't make that out of it. Also the term Novorossiya is not exactly what that article says it is. It's the area that was captured from the Ottoman Empire by the Russian Empire and was then called Novorossiya. After the October revolution, the Russian Empire lost it again.

Crimea has been Russian up to after WWII when it was signed over by an alledgedly drunk president to Ukraine. It's a completely different situation.

 I'm not sure how I am misinterpreting what it said when I quoted what it was saying pretty much exactly. The historical 'claim' to the Crimean Peninsula was one of the reasons why Russiafelt they had A reason to go on there, now add in their 'need' to protect the large ethnic Russian minority in the 'Novorossiya ' area, ie southern Ukraine.  I know someone on another forum who lives in Donetsk and he is most decidedly NOT in favor of the Russians meddling like they have been, or for the separatists, which he calls terrorists.  He might not like the Ukrainian government, but he trusts it a lot more than the Russians and the separatists. The things he has reported  are scary. Such as the separatists/terrorists letting women and children out, but forcing the menfolk to stay and 'help' the separatists by doing things like dig ditches or become a member of the military force.  It very much looks like the minority is forcing the majority to do what the minority wants, because it has the weapons. Realistically, I seriously doubt the majority of the people in those oblasts want independence or to join Russia. Just a loud minority, that have Russian support and a lot of weapons and the will to enforce their view on the majority.

 I reiterate my first response to those Russians living in the eastern/southern areas; if you want to live in Russian so badly, MOVE THERE.  Just pack your bags and move your ass to Russia. No minority has the right to try and vote parts of a nation to independence or into another nation.

Offline Dashenka

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #390 on: July 18, 2014, 10:10:10 AM »
I meant that the person who wrote that article misinterpreted. :)

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #391 on: July 18, 2014, 10:27:08 AM »
One seperatist group claimed credit on Twitter within minutes but took the post down (guess they found out it wasn't a miltary transport)

Edit: Sorry.. a russian social media site..not twitter. I don't trust fox news and none of the 'reliable' sites I look at have it stated clearly on the time line.. so till it's clarifyed.. I'm leery.

HOWEVER.. the black box is going to moscow.. so odds are if it was Russian hardware (from whatever source) ..we'll never know.

Offline Oniya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #392 on: July 18, 2014, 10:44:50 AM »
I doubt that the plane's black box is going to be able to identify the hardware that shot it down.  That information would be part of the physical wreckage, not the flight recorder, and I doubt that missiles broadcast anything that the plane's equipment could pick up as an 'identifier'.  What will be most critical is the voice recorder - did the pilots have instructions to fly that corridor, or were they going 'off trail'?   Were there any warnings made to the plane that they were entering disputed airspace?  (Either by the people that fired the missile, or by other ATCs in the area.)  No one seems to be disputing the physical cause of the plane going down (someone shot it), only the reasons behind it.

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Offline Dashenka

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #394 on: July 18, 2014, 01:15:23 PM »
One seperatist group claimed credit on Twitter within minutes but took the post down (guess they found out it wasn't a miltary transport)

Edit: Sorry.. a russian social media site..not twitter. I don't trust fox news and none of the 'reliable' sites I look at have it stated clearly on the time line.. so till it's clarifyed.. I'm leery.

HOWEVER.. the black box is going to moscow.. so odds are if it was Russian hardware (from whatever source) ..we'll never know.

I heard Russia is not going to accept them. Been following the Dutch media a lot since they had 189 people on board. Sounds a bit like they are going to supervise the 'neutral' international committe. Putin's also suggested that it should be a neutral party. Maybe Russia collects them and then hands them over to whoever is investigating. If any of those black boxes have been tempered with, it will show.

I'm confident that this will end 'well'.

Offline Oniya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #395 on: July 18, 2014, 01:24:06 PM »
Putin's also suggested that it should be a neutral party. Maybe Russia collects them and then hands them over to whoever is investigating. If any of those black boxes have been tempered with, it will show.

In my opinion, this would be the best course of action.  If the only way that the black boxes can be retrieved is through Putin, then by all means, Putin should collect them.  (If I had the slightest thought that a world leader would listen to me, I'd recommend videotaping the hand-over - but that's just me.)  The neutral analysis should satisfy any suspicions of tampering.

Offline Iniquitous

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #396 on: July 18, 2014, 01:48:10 PM »
I heard Russia is not going to accept them. Been following the Dutch media a lot since they had 189 people on board. Sounds a bit like they are going to supervise the 'neutral' international committe. Putin's also suggested that it should be a neutral party. Maybe Russia collects them and then hands them over to whoever is investigating. If any of those black boxes have been tempered with, it will show.

I'm confident that this will end 'well'.

What is your definition of "well"? How do you compensate for the loss of life? I'm sorry (which no one has even heard yet) doesn't cover the loss of life. Are the seperatists going to be jailed or executed for shooting the plane down? Of course not.

This is not going to end "well".

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #397 on: July 18, 2014, 01:52:03 PM »
At this point, 'ending well' for me would be avoiding an increase in combatants.  It's not much, and it's not particularly 'good', but this is eerily similar to the Lusitania incident, down to the accusation of there being 'spies' on the airliner.  That one didn't end 'well' at all.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #398 on: July 18, 2014, 02:02:30 PM »
At this point, 'ending well' for me would be avoiding an increase in combatants.  It's not much, and it's not particularly 'good', but this is eerily similar to the Lusitania incident, down to the accusation of there being 'spies' on the airliner.  That one didn't end 'well' at all.

To play devil's advocate for a moment, the 'spies' thing is (at last mention) part of a leaked internal communique between the separatists, and reads like blatant CYA from a unit commander who knows he just f***ed up in a gigantic way and wants to avoid getting shot. If it makes it to an official statement from what separatist leadership exists, then it'll be a problem.

Offline Oreo

Re: Ukraine
« Reply #399 on: July 18, 2014, 02:07:23 PM »
At this point, 'ending well' for me would be avoiding an increase in combatants.  It's not much, and it's not particularly 'good', but this is eerily similar to the Lusitania incident, down to the accusation of there being 'spies' on the airliner.  That one didn't end 'well' at all.

This was my feeling also. Anything that deescalates the problem is a move in the right direction. The last thing we need is to start slinging rumors, propaganda, or bombs.

Nothing will ever be well for the people on that plane or their families, nor will any further killing make it better. What needs done, is to find the culprits and make sure such an incident does not occur again.