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Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 13725 times)

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Online Oniya

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #100 on: March 06, 2014, 06:38:12 PM »
Quote
and portable toilets they could masturbate in for as long as the deployment lasted.

Totally made the article.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #101 on: March 06, 2014, 11:05:56 PM »
Yep, as far as Crimea is concerned it's likely going to stay within Russia for many years to come.

Offline TaintedAndDelish

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #102 on: March 07, 2014, 03:52:39 AM »
In one example, Fox News showed a photo from the Guantanamo Bay detention center which depicted smiling detainees hugging and kissing American military guards they had reportedly greeted as liberators.

Nice...
Perhaps next, they'll be quoting the National Enquirer.



Offline kajirakate

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #103 on: March 07, 2014, 11:25:53 AM »
Might be a touch controversial  but what is the difference between Russia wanting to split Crimea off from Ukraine and the Western Allies splitting Kosovo from Serbia because the bulk of the population belongs to a different group than the rest of the country?

Offline Avis habilis

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #104 on: March 07, 2014, 11:27:35 AM »
I'm gonna go with "there aren't any anti-Russian pogroms going on in Crimea".

Offline kylie

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #105 on: March 07, 2014, 01:52:46 PM »
Quote from: kajirakate
Might be a touch controversial  but what is the difference between Russia wanting to split Crimea off from Ukraine and the Western Allies splitting Kosovo from Serbia because the bulk of the population belongs to a different group than the rest of the country?

          Yeah, similar to Avis...  Russia says it needs to protect Crimean ethnic Russians from persecution by the present leadership in Kiev.  The supporting media on that side tosses references to 19th century "pogroms" against minorities around.  But the worst they seem to have as evidence are removal of Russian from the list of official state languages.  Bothersome I suppose, at worst a possible start on a road toward de facto though legal disenfranchisement, and the West has often recommended that Kiev undo that measure in order to demonstrate a firm desire to keep Crimean Russian-speakers on board.  But this is hardly "destruction" of communities or an ethnic group -- as the word pogrom seems to be roughly defined.  (There are a few definitions I have passed with potentially different nuances, which I bet makes it an insidious propaganda word.) 

            Even if one were to worry that Kiev politics might be being driven by some unsavory elements (and I don't feel that's been argued enough)...  I have not heard of them making moves to send thugs or troops in to disrupt life for minorities in Crimea.  (The Putin supporters say some "gangs" or "terrorists" perhaps backing Kiev in Crimea were also reasons for intervention, but I don't know of any independent support or even much evidence for this.)  Whereas Russia has gone ahead and sent in thousands of troops to surround or occupy the government, military bases, and infrastructure there. 

             Putin's rhetoric suggests that because they did not accept Yanukovich as standing leader until a proper vote could be taken, basically the current government in Kiev must be treated as insurgents.  Setting aside the question of what the opposition stands for exactly (which could be a mess given how most people became political figures before and what little Y. himself left them to work with)...  I don't see that they have tried to take any territory away from Ukraine.  Whereas -- in addition to placing troops everywhere -- Russia has been issuing expedited passports to police accused of shooting demonstrators and passed legislation designed to encourage Crimea to physically break away. 

           In the case of Kosovo, if anything the Serbian government could at least claim that the resistance was trying to separate from the state.  The best Putin can say if the supposed rationale is state border maintenance, is to claim he's backing Yanukovich.  He does say that a little, all while simultaneously saying he hates the guy and that Y. has no future (I presume he means, that is what he deserves for failing to suppress or massacre enough people to stay in power in Kiev to begin with).  The only point in common with Kosovo?  In that rendition, Russia ends up backing whoever acts brutally enough in the name of holding the territory together.  Supposedly.  But again, it all falls apart given that they're tearing Crimea away themselves.


             Depending just how you see the outcome of Kosovo, perhaps it could be argued that Putin's supporters are being misled in some ways similar to how Western audiences were spurred into supporting the Kosovo bombing based on initially manufactured reasons.  In the case of Kosovo, I think there were fears that it was going to be some resemblance to grizzly events that occurred in the larger Yugoslav breakup war a few years earlier.  Many felt that the Serb leadership had demonstrated a bloodthirstiness and willingness to collaborate with, if not instigate, crimes against civilians and prisoners on a large scale.  Many also felt that Nato had been very late to respond and slow, or sometimes completely unprepared to protect communities from attack when it finally did (see Srebrenica e.g. referred to here on p.5).  So there was a certain sense of moral dilemma deja vu....

            ...  In the end however, there was much debate about whether Serb actions in Kosovo were actually, initially rather accepted ways of war -- that is I think, if one assumes little states should be expected to do, inside Europe against separatists, what some major ones do in certain wars?   Chomsky makes this argument...  If one assumes that is just how wars are or could be based on other situations, then perhaps the Nato bombing was a catalyst that pushed matters toward drastic Serbian measures which only then approximated the reports of disproportionate abuse that had been used to justify the bombing.  Or there could be issues about whether terms like "ethnic cleansing" should ever have been applied to Kosovo per se, as they were left and right in justifying Nato intervention.  Here we may find problems more similar to Russia's deployment of the term "pogromists" to villify the Ukrainian leadership of the day. 
 

              There are certain other parallels:  Both Kosovo and Crimea are situations where the West takes an interest in an area Russia considers of vital interest (the so-called "near abroad").  In both cases, Russia appears to back 'their man' and justifies everything he does as combating 'criminals' or 'terrorists' while whole communities are occupied or (in Kosovo) displaced.  The West appears interested enough to claim a fundamental conflict, but not enough to put boots on the ground.  The West seems to claim that national interests are no longer really about being surrounded by friendly regimes or maneuvering to manage (or is that destroy) the economies of your neighbors, but they do seem to come off pretty hypocritical there.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2014, 02:02:22 PM by kylie »

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #107 on: March 08, 2014, 06:12:55 PM »


Softly sings, whistling

My Pa was telling me what it was like living during the whole Cuban crisis during the Cold War. I got to say sitting here reading the news from Ukraine, I think I understand that feeling.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2014, 06:15:46 PM by SGTDan »

Offline kylie

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #108 on: March 09, 2014, 01:37:11 AM »
           I dunno about the analogy now...  In the Cuba crisis, the American hawks at least were dying to get on with a war.  In this case, few even among the typically pro-deployment neocons seem interested in actually fighting.  Although I have read some rumbles that the Kiev government might try for a guerrilla resistance (not sure I would blame them, but not sure how much support it would have inside Crimea exactly either).  I can also imagine Kiev feels very besieged and that something in their basket has been taken and used against them, which is vaguely how the US felt about Cuba.  (Though it's not US territory, it is close in the vicinity..  Then again, Russia is also arguing proximity and threat to a friendly regime means right to intervene...)

            Perhaps the most striking parallel so far on that count:  Russia is growling that if the US military won't do exchanges with them because the US doesn't "trust" Russia generally now, then they won't allow nuclear weapons inspections under START.  Which seems tantrum-ish to me, but it would be a little disruptive if they actually followed through.  Still...  Not quite comparable to state leaders rumbling about having a nuclear war over the territory in immediate question.
 
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 01:39:31 AM by kylie »

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #109 on: March 09, 2014, 04:03:09 AM »
           I dunno about the analogy now...  In the Cuba crisis, the American hawks at least were dying to get on with a war.  In this case, few even among the typically pro-deployment neocons seem interested in actually fighting.  Although I have read some rumbles that the Kiev government might try for a guerrilla resistance (not sure I would blame them, but not sure how much support it would have inside Crimea exactly either).  I can also imagine Kiev feels very besieged and that something in their basket has been taken and used against them, which is vaguely how the US felt about Cuba.  (Though it's not US territory, it is close in the vicinity..  Then again, Russia is also arguing proximity and threat to a friendly regime means right to intervene...)

            Perhaps the most striking parallel so far on that count:  Russia is growling that if the US military won't do exchanges with them because the US doesn't "trust" Russia generally now, then they won't allow nuclear weapons inspections under START.  Which seems tantrum-ish to me, but it would be a little disruptive if they actually followed through.  Still...  Not quite comparable to state leaders rumbling about having a nuclear war over the territory in immediate question.
 

I agree and disagree, a lot of Cold War sentiment despite what people like to admit lingers in America. Hell it still lingers elsewhere too for that matter. US has already deployed "policing" units to Poland and now Russia has threatened to cut off a vital part of keeping nuclear arms in check off. This on top of denying any neutral foreign observers except Russian ones. So far it's one side growling at the other which is like Cuba.

As for state leaders, nothings been outright mentioned but the threats are there between the lines or hidden in careful words. The world may be war weary however I've heard the old term Ruskie among my friends about this issue. A lot of people around me think Putin is insane to try this. It's scary for sure and quite frankly whether or not it is like Cuba...I want it to end like Cuba. Both sides agreeing to a comprise.


Offline kylie

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #110 on: March 09, 2014, 09:13:46 AM »
          Well in the UK, Hague said some vague warning that there could be war if Russia enters still more parts of Ukraine, while appearing to rule out military reactions just over Crimea.  And I don't recall exactly where I saw it, but some reporters have noticed that at least so far, few of the American legislators famous for being hawkish have asked Obama to actually send in the military (at least, not in public).

            I didn't mean so much that no one thinks Russia might deserve to be kicked out, precisely.  And no I didn't mean to say the Cold War spirit dies easily -- though whether it's more shared history or new pressure is hard to tell in this case.  But simply, I'd be surprised if the US actually deployed something that would do that, just over Ukraine.

              With Cuba, the US had huge conventional and nuclear advantages in numbers.  And the US thought it had even more advantage than it did, apparently not being aware there were already nukes in Cuba.  If there had been a large conventional invasion of Cuba, it wouldn't have had that far to travel.  I think the US could still whop Russia conventionally if push came to shove, but the rest is all different.  I can't imagine Obama right now, telling Putin he'd start bombing Russian cities, if necessary to secure all of Ukraine. 

             And stuff is just not in place to do it conventionally.  Takes forever to ship armor around first if they were going to do it with the usual "big war" force protection -- that is, if they really mean to be prepared to repel reinforcements.  If you read Tom Clancy or the like, sure there are neatly imagined scenarios about air wings and maybe some light cavalry, special forces and cruise missiles scurrying around shutting down hulking old armor columns all across Eurasia...  That was vaguely the Rumsfeld Doctrine I think too, which worked nicely at the start in Afghanistan when someone else ("Northern Alliance") was happy to provide the tanks and divisions to occupy territory.  But dislodging infantry already in place in cities with a mix of some civilian and paramilitary support working with it?  Eyeing numerous potential other Russian forces not far away?  Nah. 

            Adding a dozen fighters in Poland and about half that again in the Baltics doesn't change things much for Crimea yet.  Now if anyone were talking about a blockade or some other naval mischief, and if Nato's Eastern Euro members wanted to play hardball with their own forces in the Black Sea participating, then maybe a destroyer or two would matter more to Russia's calculations.  Even then, it'd be betting Russia doesn't want to keep feeding in forces (initially air units, in particular) and face the US perhaps doing the same. 

              The economics of it are getting more open discussion so far.  Still lots of rumbling about sanctions, some apparent divisions as Germany and a couple other large Euro players are seen as reluctant to soak serious costs there.  (Though it could be great business for the US fracking industry, which is another controversial dimension perhaps!  I've already passed an occasional conspiracy claim that the US encouraged the Kiev opposition mainly to help push fracking through on American soil...)

Quote
Democratic and Republican senators are crafting a bill that would impose sanctions on Russian government officials and export industries such as petrochemicals, but want to coordinate action with European governments.

"Really this comes down to whether Europe is willing to join us," said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who heads a Senate subcommittee focused on the region. "Europe is not where they need to be right now. I think they are willing to give Putin a much longer leash than we are."

   
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 09:25:55 AM by kylie »

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #111 on: March 09, 2014, 11:22:24 AM »
          Well in the UK, Hague said some vague warning that there could be war if Russia enters still more parts of Ukraine, while appearing to rule out military reactions just over Crimea.

*twitch*  Apparently, we need to raise the bar on our history classes.  Doing my absolute best to avoid running afoul of a certain Internet law, so I'm just going to say that Winston Churchill must be face-palming right about now.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #112 on: March 09, 2014, 05:24:42 PM »
Saw the opera Prince igor this afternoon in a theatrical transmission taped at the Met on March 1, the day the situation moved to a military level. Even if we would not have known about this, it would have been impossible not to think of the current war, watching the story about an early Russian prince and his people in a city close to what is now the Ukraine, taking to the field against an invading nomad people, the city finally getting sacked by the enemy after various power schemes within the local ducal family. Some of the scenography and army costumes on stage were deliberately Soviet-style, the war backdrop sort of timeless and most of the cast Russian  The Metropolitan couldn't have asked for a better timing (the production had opened a month ago and is now over).
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 05:26:11 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Question Mark

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #113 on: March 09, 2014, 05:41:42 PM »
Saw the opera Prince igor this afternoon in a theatrical transmission taped at the Met on March 1, the day the situation moved to a military level. Even if we would not have known about this, it would have been impossible not to think of the current war, watching the story about an early Russian prince and his people in a city close to what is now the Ukraine, taking to the field against an invading nomad people, the city finally getting sacked by the enemy after various power schemes within the local ducal family. Some of the scenography and army costumes on stage were deliberately Soviet-style, the war backdrop sort of timeless and most of the cast Russian  The Metropolitan couldn't have asked for a better timing (the production had opened a month ago and is now over).

Coincidence.... or ILLUMINATI?!?

Offline Neysha

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #114 on: March 09, 2014, 07:01:02 PM »
Russia has decided to flex its cyberwarfare muscle, like it did against the Baltic Nations a few years ago. And it seems like the Russians are moving north of Crimea!

But I'm sure these aren't Russians... just militia...


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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #115 on: March 09, 2014, 07:04:58 PM »
Hell of a long vehicle queue in that one!  ;)

Offline Neysha

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #116 on: March 09, 2014, 08:11:59 PM »
Hell of a long vehicle queue in that one!  ;)

Mmmmm it's a ground strike aircrafts dream right there! :D

Just sayin is all. :p

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #117 on: March 09, 2014, 09:16:24 PM »
Man things are moving really fast right now, more aggressive troop movements...

It's going to come down to who fires first I think. Something is bound to crack here unless something drastic happens.

Offline Question Mark

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #118 on: March 09, 2014, 09:20:15 PM »
Man things are moving really fast right now, more aggressive troop movements...

It's going to come down to who fires first I think. Something is bound to crack here unless something drastic happens.

I don't know...  The last thing Putin wants is a bloodbath, and the Crimeans are not dumb enough to try and take on the Russian military.  Ukraine may go for a covert insurgency, but the only way this will end up in outright violence is via a false flag, an accident, or a third party intervention.

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #119 on: March 09, 2014, 09:48:38 PM »
I don't know...  The last thing Putin wants is a bloodbath, and the Crimeans are not dumb enough to try and take on the Russian military.  Ukraine may go for a covert insurgency, but the only way this will end up in outright violence is via a false flag, an accident, or a third party intervention.

or human error. However you are correct the main reason behind the fact that there have no firefights yet is because everyone involved in this things knows what that would mean. All the Ukrainian commanders on bases, the "Russian" soldiers and even those paramilitary groups. The flaw in the old deterrence argument from the Cold War, can a human really condemn the entire world to genocide?

Offline kylie

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #120 on: March 10, 2014, 12:06:05 AM »
          Finally:  An article that seems balanced on the nagging question of just how much influence neo-Nazis could have in Ukraine, anyway.  Among a few other common points of contention (often also "whataboutery" as some British put it) along the way. 


or human error. However you are correct the main reason behind the fact that there have no firefights yet is because everyone involved in this things knows what that would mean. All the Ukrainian commanders on bases, the "Russian" soldiers and even those paramilitary groups.

          Curious...  Why the quotes?  Most of the Western media I've read agrees the soldiers calling shots in Ukraine now are mostly Russian -- with concealed plates, uniform weapons and movements typical of the Russians, and sometimes admitting their home base directly to reporters.  Although some of the Ukrainian troops have also reportedly switched sides, some troops are actually sympathetic pro-Russian Crimean irregulars often in coordination with the Russians but famed for making a bigger scene of attacking journalists, and some are Serb volunteers (you know, a little payback for Russian volunteers in Kosovo).  Still don't see the need for quotes really.

« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 12:07:36 AM by kylie »

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #121 on: March 10, 2014, 12:24:31 AM »
The quote marks were a bit of levity given Putin's insistence that they aren't Russian troops despite the obvious.

Offline Qt

Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #122 on: March 11, 2014, 05:08:47 AM »
Been following this thread for awhile but wanted to read up on more information before posting anything here.

I think it's quite understandable what Russia is currently doing in Crimea given the military bases stationed there and the things that had happened in Ukraine with the coup and the new government that Russia deem "illegitimate."

Crimea holds quite the significant historical and strategic importance to Russia. Many battles were hard fought by Russians there, and Crimea was only handed to Ukraine in the 1950s and was previous under Russia, and is a autonomous region even under Ukraine. Not to mention the military strategic importance seems to be reason enough not to let it go. It doesn't seem like the US or EU is in much of a position to do much. Military action is pretty much of the question, the risk vs reward is simply too low. As for sanctions, the US need EU on board but EU is very hesitant on them, so not sure that would go too far either.

In anycase the referendum will hold place soon to decide the outcome. They'll have the choice to either join Russia or remain with Ukraine.

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #123 on: March 11, 2014, 06:49:14 AM »
Would they not have the choice to remain independent of both?

Offline kylie

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Re: Russia Invades Crimea?
« Reply #124 on: March 11, 2014, 07:10:39 AM »
         Nope. (article link)

         They are only asking about either joining Russia, or staying in Ukraine with greater formal autonomy (but Kiev says they won't grant that).

         Of course, in theory people could vote "No" on both...  But it seems kind of unlikely.  Particularly with so many ethnic Russians in Crimea appearing to lean toward Russia, and then some Tartars who might vote no are talking about a boycott of the vote.

Quote
A copy of a referendum document obtained by NBC News reveals the questions the primarily pro-Moscow region's more than one million residents will be presented with at the ballot box on March 16.

Are you in favor of reuniting Crimea with Russia as a citizen of the Russian Federation?
Are you in favor of Crimea staying with Ukraine on the condition it rolls back to its 1992 Constitution?
« Last Edit: March 11, 2014, 02:43:00 PM by kylie »