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Author Topic: Morsi's gone  (Read 1305 times)

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Offline KythiaTopic starter

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Morsi's gone
« on: July 03, 2013, 08:37:25 PM »
Almost real time updating on the situation.

Interesting times.

Offline Trieste

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2013, 11:20:51 PM »
You know, I saw that on Twitter earlier and I wasn't sure whether to be shocked or completely unsurprised.

Offline KythiaTopic starter

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2013, 11:24:22 PM »
Yeah, that's been kinda my thing.  Been following it all night and still haven't decided.  Haven't decided whether I'm glad or not, either.  On the whole, Egypt is confusing me greatly at the moment.

Offline Trieste

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2013, 11:26:11 PM »
It makes me feel all weird and wobbly in the feels, too.

Offline BCdan

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2013, 11:40:42 PM »
The problem is that he was democratically elected.  What if he, or a candidate like him wins the election again a second time around?  My understanding is they have a first past the post system, the candidate with the most votes wins (I think Morsi got 25% or something like that against 8 other candidates).  If Egyptians are going to really stick it to the Muslim brotherhood, they are going to need to rally around one candidate. 

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2013, 11:42:23 PM »
I don't know..he's not a good choice.. but he was democratically elected. I wonder what  will come out of the military back in charge. Definitely not a good thing overall. 

Of course they know what happens to the military in an Islamic Republic eventually. They only have to look to Iran to see what happened to the 'Old Guard' eventually. I THINK they want a nice stable secular democracy, but they must have figured it was them or the Muslim Brotherhood.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2013, 12:44:04 AM by Callie Del Noire »

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2013, 12:45:01 AM »
He had not been standing by some of (in the eyes of the outside world) his key pledges from the elections, like appointing female government ministers and a Christian vice president - but people who are brought into power by a revolution often find it hard to do that, keep their promises. A hundred things get said and promised during a revolution, then the new people get into power and realities and power grabs come around.

The army seems committed not to shooting all-out on ordinary people and to keep up some measure of civic order - just as in early 2011, whenm they refused to obey Mubarak - but you really can't help asking yourself: if Morsy couldn't win real recognition as a democratically legit leader, then who can? There's no doubt he and the Muslim Brotherhood have a large part of the country's population behind them, and I don't think one can just write off MB as terrorists and fanatics.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2013, 01:07:12 AM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2013, 12:56:20 AM »
True..that is what worries me. But look at it from their point of view. They are watching him and the brotherhood take them further and further from a secular government, like they had, towards something that was antithetical to anything but their own interests. Disenfranchising anyone that disagreed with them. How much longer till they started culling the military?

Enlightened self interest.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2013, 01:23:56 AM »
Mmm, of course Mubarak was a stabilizing guy for the whole region - and a lynchpin to the détente with Israel (and the U.S.). And he was a much more experienced man within politics than Morsy. In statecraft and diplomacy, that is; he never had to bother about elections or about getting his proposed moves through a parliament. We all know he happened to be a brutal dictator, too, in the eyes of his own people.

But I don't think Morsy is, like, Ayatullah Khomeiny - the bearded ayatullah was supported, sure enough, on his way to power by many people who were against the shah but didn't want a hardline mullohcracy.  ::)
« Last Edit: July 04, 2013, 01:55:50 AM by gaggedLouise »

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2013, 02:25:45 AM »
The Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court is to be sworn in as interim president. Ity's a no-brainer that many of Morsi's supporters and many in the countryside will see him as becoming just a puppet of the military.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23176401

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2013, 10:03:58 AM »
Well if you follow the progression of events.. Morsi and the Brotherhood have been consolidating power and instituting a more and more Islamic dominated government. Less and less freedoms for women, less options for any party who wasn't allied or aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. A progressing move to reduce power in the branches of government such as the judiciary. More and more power to the Brotherhood and fewer options for their rivals.

It was a legislative power grab. They were consolidating power and if I was the military, with an awareness of past governments, I would imagine a night of long knives in their future. The military moved on what they saw as a threat to their own life.

What comes out of this? I don't know. IF, and I stress IF, there are free and clean elections.. the Brotherhood will find fewer groups backing them this time. I doubt it will be enough to diminish it returning to power but I think that with them tentatively out of power, they won't be able to funnel things to their benefit.

Ultimately though, all we can do is hope. I believe the military acted in self-interest but that they might try to come up with a reliable SECULAR government. I don't think they want to control the country.. just don't want to wind up like the OLD military in Iran. (The old military in Iran is still around.. but typically gets the hind teat and is used for more risky maneuvers ect.. the People's Guard tends to get the best gear and money. And the senior officers know what happened in Iran to their peers in Iran after the fall of the Shah.)

Offline Neysha

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2013, 10:14:40 PM »
Morsi is gone and nothing of value was lost that day.

Too bad it had to be a coup, but that's the problem with democracy in some areas.

It often turns out to be a 'one and done' process.

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2013, 10:18:54 PM »
     I'm feeling it's kind of a question of:  Okay, at what point do you throw out the rulebook and do what works?  You can't please everyone.  There was a popular revolt of sorts.  Would we like the military more if they 'kept to their role in an advanced democratic society,' obeyed their chain of civilian command and -- as a direct result -- attacked the majority on the streets set against having Morsi?  I don't think so. 

Meanwhile back in the oh so balanced USA: In retrospect, sure, our lovely due process has finally gotten around to declaring that the police who defended the 2004 Republican National Convention did all sorts of unconstitutional stuff on the streets in defense of an unpopular administration.  It only takes them 2-5 years to sort out the various cases, and a lot of help that is while people are being searched and detained by the hundreds for a week...  Now multiply that by all the powers Morsi was handing to the fundamentalists in Egypt, for all the months and years he would be in power.  The only difference was: he was going to have his people rewrite the constitution to "justify" it, operating by themselves after he promised to let other factions into the process.

     There's another problem that the society may be so politically strained by circumstances and fragmented, that nothing may work especially well for the foreseeable future.  Although in that case, the military could argue once again:  At least we attempted to stabilize the situation as best we could.  Now if the Muslim Brotherhood comes out swinging against the next regime, is that any more democratic really than what the military has done?

     For a messy analogy but one I like...  If Obama had the guts to put say, the Senate filibuster rules up to a popular vote for a constitutional amendment...  Even though that would be done through due process (possibly taking his whole first term to accomplish!), and even though that would have been reinstituting the same structure the US previously had as the legislative process, with fewer Senate votes required to pass laws...  I bet there would be quite a few people in the streets complaining that he had broken the rules for his own benefit. 

So:  You can follow the rules to get things done in a crisis, if you prefer -- possibly doing it all too late that way to serve the people who elected you to do something promptly... and regardless quite a few people will shout foul and promise secession, retribution, disbodience, on and on.  Heck we haven't gone that far under Obama, less has been actually done because of Congressional gridlock mainly via the fillibuster, and still look at how politicians particularly from the American South rant on about "abuse of power" now

At least as I gather from brief views on CNN:  Morsi, however, made a rather bald-faced power grab that also redid the constitution and in the process quite clearly lost his popular majority.  Or if not?? Then, I haven't heard a well-supported denial , yet.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2013, 10:23:04 PM by kylie »

Offline Neysha

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2013, 03:37:15 PM »
If Morsi invested more time in economic recovery and less on consolidating political power for his support base, he'd still be in office.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2013, 02:51:54 PM »
http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/07/07/dont-understand-whats-happening-egypt-listen-12-year-old-break-it-down-you

I want to meet the man/woman who introduced him to civics.

Hell I want that man/woman to teach CIVICS here. Along with critical thinking and logic.

Offline SakamotoHD

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2013, 04:51:49 PM »
All I can say with him being disposed, it's actually just as scary with him not being in power, as it is with him being in power.

You know how they have a rough tidal wave, then all seems calm, then a really big one comes in? Egypt has to be careful at this point. We had something like this before.. where a guy motivated people to perform a coup on his government. He'd usher in a new era for his people, and end their economic strife. Though his failed, he then sought new more legal ways to obtain power. He eventually got it.

His name was adolf hitler.

So be wary egypt. This is even more prone to chaos then they realize

Offline Neysha

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2013, 05:35:49 PM »
Yeah at least Adolf Hitler had the backing of the business community in Germany. Without it he wouldve never rose to power and be another footnote in German political history. The next wannabe leader of Egypt is going to want to focus on the economy before anything else before he gets tossed out of office as well. The Egyptian people, especially the urban population that's moving this along, is fairly literate and skilled and educated in some respects, especially in contrast with the rest of the developing world. They want jobs and income and training and stability for economic activity. Get those down and then any would be despot can start engaging in becoming ideologues for better or worse.

Offline Oniya

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2013, 06:12:29 PM »
Any country in economic distress is ripe for chaos.  Even in ancient Rome, there was common knowledge that people want food in their bellies and something to keep themselves busy/entertained.  When the Treaty of Versailles was enacted, and the German mark got catastrophically devalued, all it took was for someone to promise change.

Honestly, I worry about it here sometimes.

Offline SakamotoHD

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2013, 06:14:14 PM »
Civilians in military jobs are taking 20% paycuts by not being allowed to work fridays.

It's getting there..

Offline Trieste

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2013, 06:19:28 PM »
Any country in economic distress is ripe for chaos.  Even in ancient Rome, there was common knowledge that people want food in their bellies and something to keep themselves busy/entertained.  When the Treaty of Versailles was enacted, and the German mark got catastrophically devalued, all it took was for someone to promise change.

Honestly, I worry about it here sometimes.

Arguably, that's how Obama won his first election - the promise of change. I would argue that the reason he won his second election is because we all looked at Romney and said "Dude, you are the epitome of status quo".

Offline Oniya

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2013, 06:24:16 PM »
I don't think I'd disagree with that, Trie.  The thing I worry about is someone even more unscrupulous than the typical political player - and less hamstrung by the status quo contingent - getting that kind of support.

Offline Trieste

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2013, 06:29:16 PM »
I know what you mean. At the risk of getting more off-topic, I do wonder if Obama's campaign and the stinging perception that he hasn't lived up to it would make it more difficult for such a person to sweep in and capitalize on the same premise. Make sense?

Offline SakamotoHD

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2013, 06:33:25 PM »
If it did it would be a beautiful orchestrated set of events that would easily throw a dictator in to make some major changes. It all starts with a young president with some ideological views. Throw in the fact he's of a different colour, maybe call him a leftist, and then show every bad thing he did and blow it up 10x.

Then find some huge right-wing, to the point of fascism.. then make him president.

It makes too much sense.. but that's from my crazy imagination.. >.>

Offline Oniya

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Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2013, 06:37:00 PM »
Depends on how it was presented.  The key to following up a 'failed' leader is to convince the people that you're 'not like him' and that you'll 'get things done.'  Doesn't matter if it's in the US or Egypt.

If it did it would be a beautiful orchestrated set of events that would easily throw a dictator in to make some major changes. It all starts with a young president with some ideological views. Throw in the fact he's of a different colour, maybe call him a leftist, and then show every bad thing he did and blow it up 10x.

Then find some huge right-wing, to the point of fascism.. then make him president.

It makes too much sense.. but that's from my crazy imagination.. >.>

There are those that say that Kennedy is only idolized because Oswald didn't give him the chance to fail.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2013, 06:38:36 PM by Oniya »

Offline SakamotoHD

Re: Morsi's gone
« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2013, 06:51:39 PM »
Oh very very true. It's all relative! I was making a claim with very minimal basis..

Still the days where THIS was true, I hope are long past. Child rulers that is.