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Author Topic: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal  (Read 2905 times)

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Offline RubySlippersTopic starter

Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« on: July 15, 2012, 08:02:20 PM »
Okay the Supreme Court rules on this and its the law of the land, with the exception Medicaid has to be opted into by states not mandatory to participate with a clear strong majority vote.

So what are the odds this will be fully repealed before it kicks in in 2014?

As I see this if the Senate stays with a slight Democratic majority and/or Obama is returned to office its over and there will be no appeal.

If Romney gets in and the Senate shifts over to the Republicans then it gets interesting. Their options are pretty simple and neither are ideal to consider by the Republicans.

1. They can try for a full repeal of the entire law and hit the filibuster in the Senate stalling it.

2. They can repeal the financial parts by reconciliation and that leaves the king kong of the ACA the mandate insurers cannot turn anyone away with others intact and again face a Democratic filibuster.

Romney could grant waivers to anyone that asks but if a state opts in they must provide the funding so its not an assurance states would refuse all that funding if its there to do the Medicaid expansion and the exchanges in the end.

So how would you see a repeal happening if they try it or can they repeal it?

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2012, 08:19:37 PM »
I think this is a massive shitstorm started for the purely political purposes by the Republicans. They are going to play it for maximum political capital. This is a game to keep things focused on the President instead of issues. I honestly don't see a positive approach that will make things less polarized, which is what the GOP wants.

As long as they keep playing the repeal right..they will keep the rank and file, and a good portion of the libertarians, behind their candidate.

Offline Apple of Eris

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2012, 09:12:20 PM »
Reminded me of this:



Anyway, I doubt it will be repealed unless Repubs sweep congress and the WH, and honestly, unless the Prez does something completely crazy between now and the election, I doubt that will happen. This not being a mid-term election, you'll have a greater turnout, and a greater turnout generally favors those seen as moderates. To me it seems the Republicans are making it harder for themselves by continually edging further right. In a major election that just makes it harder on them to be appealing to a generally moderate populace.

Of course if the economy tanks or something, all cards are off the table.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2012, 09:23:27 PM »
Apple you're forgetting the GOP has UNLIMITED Citizen United funds to fear monger and spin with. Lack of reporting of funds in the superpacs, accountability, or even a need to remain true to the facts mean the GOP will spin up their solid core into a frothing mass of voting maniacs, add in possible pulls from the libertarian crowds.

I think it will be much closer than most think. It's going to come down to 'pivot' states. Either that or one of them screws up by the numbers

Offline RubySlippersTopic starter

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2012, 09:48:31 PM »
I must point out a repeal of the entire law at once requires the Senate to fall to the Rpublicans in November by 11 or more seats, anything else the Democrats can filibuster it since it has both budget and non-budget portions so cannot be done in reconciliation by a simple majority vote. If they go after what they can which I admit is alot of the ACA they still have the non-budget portions this includes the king kong the insurance mandate that insurance companies have to cover everyone that wants to regardless of medical condition that again can be filibustered as a seperate bill.

And Democrats can use that as a bargaining chip for reforms to the law over a repeal after all you need them in the end to play ball. So I see a repeal a hail mary sort of try that is not in the end likely over some bipartisan reforms maybe of some of the law the Democrats can agree to that are not critical to the core of the law.

So Romney is actually not a big issue neither is the Senate elections save it would be better if the Democrats hold the Senate and could take the White House it would stop a repeal cold. If the Senate is held by Democrats with its current number or more seats there still would be no repeal.


Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2012, 09:58:11 PM »
Exactly..and in at LEAST 11 vulnerable states the GOP will use that issue as a club to leverage control if they can.

"They are trying to do bad things to your medical choices"
Doom/Gloom/Assisted Suicide Boards/Death Committees..ect.

This is all to manufacture issues that they don't have as bad a history as the real relevant issues of their 'gifts' to big money, the fact that they will NOT do what needs to be done to fix the mortgage issues and will work to make the current business as usual attitude in washington continues. Lobbyists ruling the decision process, the White House rubberstamping anything that the GOP pushes through without review.

Offline Sasquatch421

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2012, 10:27:46 PM »
Right now there is no chance of it being repealed since it needs to get past the senate and if by some small chance it did.... Obama would just veto it. Right now ti is a waste of time trying, but that could very well change in November.

Offline RubySlippersTopic starter

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2012, 10:34:38 PM »
They must get the eleven seats a tall order, when was the last time that many seats fell to one party in the Senate in one election. I can't seem to find a case that happened in one election.

And I meant after November in my original post.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2012, 10:58:09 PM »
Like I said..this wasn't ever intended to do anything more than stir the pot. The GOP is hoping by being soundly thrashed by the 'wicked Dems' in the Senate and the President that they can show the libertarians and small government moderates they are on the same side and they need to back the GOP this time around.

All it takes is a good long look at the last eleciton to know they lost because of the moderates they've been snubbing for the last 20 years.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2012, 07:58:02 AM »
I don't see the Republicans getting to (or even near) the sixty seats limit in the senate either, which will make it very hard to repeal the entire law. Actually I think Obama will get re-elected by a small margin. Romney is obviously having trouble raising the wider base of the GOP to the fight; for some he's not conservative enough, for some not a real Christian, and to many he's just not dramatic or credible enough as a political figure. This will dog him into the campaign I think, but I admit it's just an assessment from me.

If anything, these past four years have shown how the political system is in a kind of death grip, both in the USA and in Europe. It's become near impossible to achieve viable reforms or "government for the people, by the people", instead we're getting an increasingly bought-up , self-entitled, impenetrable and shackled political scene.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 10:56:40 AM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Serephino

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2012, 12:44:31 PM »
I very much doubt it will get repealed.  Callie is right, this is a purely political show.  They have to because last year most of them promised during their campaigns that the first thing they would do is repeal Obamacare.  I remember that, and I wonder how many others do.  But that wasn't the first thing they did.  The first thing they did was SOPA and all those crazy abortion laws.  Then when people got pissed off about those they decided to go after the budget like they promised.  They slashed the hell out of social programs.

I can pretty much guarantee that even if the GOP does win the election, they'll forget all about the health care law and go right back to what is really important to them.  Everything they tried to ram through these past 2 years that they couldn't because of the Senate will very quickly become law if they control both houses.  A woman's uterus is what's important to them.  Though, I suppose if insurance companies fork over enough cash that might get the Gop's attention.   

Offline RubySlippersTopic starter

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2012, 04:16:51 PM »
A local hospital since the state likely will not expand Medicaid has a plan they will cover the premiums of poor patiants, provide the treatement then let the insurance lapse getting the money from the insurance company since the patiant cannot be refused once they get a months premium. And one did the math if they get a good policy paying 80% they will get noticeably more money than under medicaid for any care over a certain threshhold. And it would be legal without a repeal. I suspect the state insurers will beg for the Medicaid expansion is any hospital does this as a normal policy and well as the state to go into the Exchanges. I will note any private person could also do this which is the issue the bills King Kong that needs the rest of the law to fence it in.

Offline Chris Brady

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2012, 05:31:53 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong (and please do, my facts are tenuous at best at the moment, memory and all that) but wasn't 'Obamacare' originally something of a Republican idea in the first place?

I THINK I remember reading or hearing something along those lines...

Again, though, I could be wrong.

Offline AndyZ

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2012, 05:38:18 PM »
Here's my prediction:

Not too much will happen before November.  Regardless of whether the tax cuts are kept in part or in total, or not kept at all, it won't affect too much growth.  All the growth that the Bush Tax Cuts had to give was used up when they were implemented.

In November, Republicans will keep the House, get the White House with Romney, and get more than 49 seats but less than 60.

During the first year, Republicans will work on trying to convert Democrats to getting rid of Obamacare.  They'll probably try throwing in deals similar to what Republicans called the Cornhusker Kickback and Louisiana Purchase.  If that works, they'll replace it with things like tort reform and allowing health insurance to be sold across state lines.  If that doesn't work, they'll just gut it with reconciliation.

Republicans will then continue to use the reconciliation process against any of their opponents who weren't willing to work on their behalf for getting rid of Obamacare.  There's all kinds of stuff they'll be able to remove from specific states when they take a machete to the budget.  There's a reason that people were calling reconciliation the nuclear option, and it's been invoked.

Although a number of public jobs will go down the drain, things will start picking up when the private sector is unleashed (unless the big business in their question has a Democrat in their pocket and has already gotten an exemption).  Unemployment will decrease rapidly during the first two years and even out to something reasonable (I'm guessing 5% but figure I'll be off by a point or two depending on other factors) by 2016.  Democrats will try to claim that it would have happened even faster if not for Republican obstructionism, but I don't think people who aren't Democrat will believe it.

We'll see if I'm correct.

Offline Oniya

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2012, 05:40:46 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong (and please do, my facts are tenuous at best at the moment, memory and all that) but wasn't 'Obamacare' originally something of a Republican idea in the first place?

I THINK I remember reading or hearing something along those lines...

Again, though, I could be wrong.

You would be correct.  http://healthcarereform.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=004182  The website linked shows 'Federal Health Care Bills Containing an Individual Health Insurance Mandate, 1993-2009' as well as 'Policy Origins of Individual Mandate, 1989-1994' - who introduced the bills, how many co-sponsors each had on all sides of the aisle, and a brief summation of each.  There are also links to the bills in question, for those who want to stare at legalese until their eyes cross.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2012, 06:26:30 PM »
Here's my prediction:

Not too much will happen before November.  Regardless of whether the tax cuts are kept in part or in total, or not kept at all, it won't affect too much growth.  All the growth that the Bush Tax Cuts had to give was used up when they were implemented.

In November, Republicans will keep the House, get the White House with Romney, and get more than 49 seats but less than 60.

During the first year, Republicans will work on trying to convert Democrats to getting rid of Obamacare.  They'll probably try throwing in deals similar to what Republicans called the Cornhusker Kickback and Louisiana Purchase.  If that works, they'll replace it with things like tort reform and allowing health insurance to be sold across state lines.  If that doesn't work, they'll just gut it with reconciliation.

Republicans will then continue to use the reconciliation process against any of their opponents who weren't willing to work on their behalf for getting rid of Obamacare.  There's all kinds of stuff they'll be able to remove from specific states when they take a machete to the budget.  There's a reason that people were calling reconciliation the nuclear option, and it's been invoked.

Although a number of public jobs will go down the drain, things will start picking up when the private sector is unleashed (unless the big business in their question has a Democrat in their pocket and has already gotten an exemption).  Unemployment will decrease rapidly during the first two years and even out to something reasonable (I'm guessing 5% but figure I'll be off by a point or two depending on other factors) by 2016.  Democrats will try to claim that it would have happened even faster if not for Republican obstructionism, but I don't think people who aren't Democrat will believe it.

We'll see if I'm correct.
(my italics)

It seems the question whether reconciliation could possibly be used to bury Obamacare is a whole debate topic unto itself. And then it's just whether it would be permitted, not whether such a move would be in line with the proper use of the reconciliation procedure. Seeing that the law package isn't mainly a budget issue and bears heavily on public health and - by extension - social security (sickness often works together with unemployment and social uprooting, so if the health care issues are not addressed, it's likely to balloon social security costs and continue to balloon on-the-spot hospital costs) it's hard to see how Obamacare could be pushed down into the grave with a reconciliation move. Especially when Romney enacted a similar package during his time as governor of Massachusetts.

Also, reconciliation vote can only be used once a year. Don't you think there are other issues Romney would want it for?

I think Callie is right, this is political theatre. I've seen similar things in other elections, an issue gets blown to the sky and dominates the campaign only to sink to the bottom of the sea once victory has been achieved. Romney's people already know that it will be very difficult and divisive to get rid of ACA, and that it could well become a millstone around their necks in 2016. There's a limit to how much recent legislation you can repeal without undermining the authority of your own office.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 06:28:57 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Trieste

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2012, 06:27:35 PM »
I'm a little frustrated that health care reform has essentially passed and been upheld, and yet it continues to be one of the political drums to bang. Health care, abortion, and birth control are in the news a whole hell of a lot lately.

What about jobs? What about overseas wars that are draining what money we do have? What about focusing on things that affect ALL Americans instead of small percentages? The highest estimate of how many would pay tax penalties due to an individual mandate that I have read is like 5% of taxpayers - more common was like 2-3%. I don't know the percentages of women who seek abortions, but I'm willing to bet it isn't the majority of women. The largest population affected by the recent political crap would be those who make use of birth control - which is an issue about which I have yet to hear anyone demand something should be done. Unless you count Rush Limbaugh which I...don't. Conversely, there are few families that don't have a member off at war, or just back from war, etc. There are very.few families that haven't been affected by unemployment, underemployment, and foreclosures.

I'm sick, sick, sick of the energy being put into essentially denying the country healthcare while we have other crap to clean in this country.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2012, 07:49:12 PM »
I agree Trieste, but give the Tea Party's continued refusal to hold their sponsors accountable for the economic woes, job losses and such the need a white whale to distract the average voter. Toss in that any TRUE corporate tax reform that could make in-sourcing jobs back into the country profitable would mean the end of the tax loop holes that allow companies lie GE and Big Oil to hide profits off shore for something that might not be as good as their good deal gigs on the books and they will avoid that like the plague.

Yup, the murdered of the Affordable Care Act will be front and center tillNov.

Offline Trieste

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2012, 07:59:57 PM »
Am I the only one who feels like the political process has gone significantly off the rails since Citizens United? Don't get me wrong, it wasn't perfect before that, but it seems like overnight there were SuperPACs everywhere and no political concern for constituents any longer.

Am I imagining things?

Offline Oniya

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2012, 08:09:40 PM »
Not the only one by far.  Various states are even trying to do things on the sub-federal level.  (I remember hearing Montana was trying to counter it, Bernie Sanders is speaking out against it in Vermont, and I think Sherrod Brown (Ohio) cosigned on something leading up to the Supreme Court hearing.)  Have you seen the picture of Boehner done up like a NASCAR driver with all his 'sponsors'?

Offline Trieste

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2012, 08:11:25 PM »
Nope. I think that needs rectifying. *makes puppy eyes at Oniya*

Offline Oniya

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2012, 08:19:59 PM »
Also, look up the DISCLOSE Act (Senate Bill 3369).



Link to big, easy to read version:  http://i.imgur.com/j5c2S.jpg  (2323 x 3000 px)

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2012, 08:29:01 PM »
Hahaha, that pic is absolutely hilarious!  :D

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2012, 08:29:27 PM »
Yeah.. the lack of transparency in the SuperPacs is scary, the resistance to the FCC's mandate to put political advertising purchases online, and generally any manner of campaign finance reform is a 'bad thing' on the Hill.

Yeah, Citizen's United rolled back nearly a CENTURY of campaign finance reform. Bernie Sander's amendment looks promising but the lack of media attention is 'strangely' constant.

Me personally.. I want it restricted to 10k per person. No companies, unions, or organizations of ANY kind. Full reporting and transperency, making concealing funding a felony. But I've been in a 'Fuck the polis/lobbyists' mood of lately.

Offline Oniya

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Re: Affordable are Act aka Obamacare: Chance of Repeal
« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2012, 08:37:38 PM »
Me personally.. I want it restricted to 10k per person. No companies, unions, or organizations of ANY kind. Full reporting and transperency, making concealing funding a felony. But I've been in a 'Fuck the polis/lobbyists' mood of lately.

Reminds me - I saw this the other day, thought of you, and ran it through Snopes just to make certain.

'Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.  There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things.  Among them are H. L. Hunt (you possibly know his background), a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas.  Their number is negligible and they are stupid.'

Dwight D. Eisenhower - http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/ike.asp
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 09:12:11 PM by Oniya »