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Author Topic: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast  (Read 2713 times)

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Online ZeitgeistTopic starter

Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« on: September 27, 2011, 10:52:12 PM »
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64534.html

"Iran plans to send military ships near the Atlantic coast of the United States, but offered no timeline or details on the “powerful presence” its naval head promised would be deployed."

I can't imagine they would be so stupid as to deploy what capital ships they have any where near our coasts. But please do as it would provide us an opportunity to sink what insignificant fleet they might have.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2011, 10:58:38 PM »
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64534.html

"Iran plans to send military ships near the Atlantic coast of the United States, but offered no timeline or details on the “powerful presence” its naval head promised would be deployed."

I can't imagine they would be so stupid as to deploy what capital ships they have any where near our coasts. But please do as it would provide us an opportunity to sink what insignificant fleet they might have.

You can joke about it, but don't forget.. unlike the shallow waters of the gulf, their diesel subs are a LOT more dangerous in deeper waters. ASW craft can't spot the subs in the water because they are in less than 100 meters of depth. Outside the gulf they can hide and will be harder to find. How hard depends on how competent their trainers were.


Offline Ironwolf85

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Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2011, 01:09:46 AM »
"powerful presence" at this I laugh...
the United States contended with the Soviet Navy once upon a time, who did the same things.
They are probably going to send a small dispatch of ships or subs near US maritime borders stay in international waters. Then go home and chant about it and beat their chests. we might move the atlantic fleet out to say hello, the military has ways of detecting these things. aside from sonar, satalites, etc. not to mention now military planners are on alert for their naval movements.
on the bright side this might get the atlantic shipbuilders and sub docks some new contracts. god knows they need them.

it's kind of like a child who goes under the fence, comes back to brag to his friends "I'm so brave" though it would be funny he we did the military equilivent of spraying them with the hose, maybe send our air force to fly over the decks of any surface ships, or a few subs to contact them, hell have the CIA break their sub transmissions, not do anything but let them know they were hacked, that would be freaking helarious.
"this is Admeral Nuraki, of the Retribution, contacting high command."
"hello Admeral Nuraki, this is the USS Athena, how are things going down there?"
the look on his face would be priceless
or better yet... if the surface ships they send get hijacked or attacked by somli pirates, unlikely, but still funny.
in all seriousness, like I said, they'll come close and go home just to say "we got close to the "great satan" and lived we're awesome!" and we'll be watching them like a hawk the entire time, ready to send them to the deep should they take an agressive action.

Offline Missy

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2011, 01:45:26 AM »
yeah I doubt their stupid enough to actually fuck around or do anything to get themselves in trouble, but it would be awesome to be in the navy right now just so we could have some fun with their comms. Why don't we turn it into a right awesome American radio station?

Navy Carrier Squadron - Pump It (Black Eyed Peas)

Offline Ironwolf85

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Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2011, 12:45:21 PM »
play something horribly rythmic, the kind of booty shaking stuff that people have a hard time getting out of their heads

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2011, 01:46:31 PM »
Thing is Ironwolf, is that a sub by it's very nature isn't easy to find (I worked on subhunter aircraft for nearly my whole navy career and electronic warfare aircraft the rest of the time) and once you lose a sub there is a very good likelihood you might not find it again.

My squadrons hunted a LOT of subs, US and otherwise, and the big problem we had was the perceived thought there is no need for sub warfare now that the Soviets had imploded. The sono network in the Pacific and Atlantic isnt' half as well maintained as it used to be. (To be honest it's mostly gone)

The big threat of a sub isnt' against the navy. It's against civilian vessels. You could do a LOT of damage unseen with a sub. One warshot would snap the spine of any ship out there (Modern torpedoes create a massive convection bubble under the ship and its own weight snaps it in half). With good signal intelligence, it would be childs' play (even for a 2nd/3rd tier navy like Iran) to do a few hit and run attacks and never be caught.

Offline Missy

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2011, 04:16:54 PM »
Well I wouldn't want to be in the Atlantic right now, but he can't seriously be that stupid as to announce he's coming before he picks off some civilian vessels can he?

"Hey bro's I'm sending some submarines to your border, just you know who did it once your citizens ships disappear" I mean seriously how stupid can you get?

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2011, 04:30:00 PM »
Well I wouldn't want to be in the Atlantic right now, but he can't seriously be that stupid as to announce he's coming before he picks off some civilian vessels can he?

"Hey bro's I'm sending some submarines to your border, just you know who did it once your citizens ships disappear" I mean seriously how stupid can you get?

Have you heard some of the stupidity the Iranian government has done in the past? Announcing there are no homosexuals in Iran while actively stoning them? Declaring all manner of things that make you look for the President's tin foil hat? (he's a loon.. powerful, well backed and clearly has bought another term (at least) in office but a dyed in the wool loon).

I'm honestly surprised he's not tried to do something more active with Israel or in the Gulf.

They have in the past done some REALLY stupid moves.. like flying a chopper/P-3 along the current carrier group in the gulf (seen them do it several time when I was deployed) both in broad daylight and at night.

And let's be honest.  The reason we're there (before the gulf wars) was to ensure they didn't seal up traffic going in and out. There is one point where (on a very clear day) you can see one side of the Gulf coast from the other side.  And the Iranians have ground to air missiles and ship missiles that could very easily close the Gulf.

Offline Sybl

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2011, 04:37:32 PM »
You can joke about it, but don't forget.. unlike the shallow waters of the gulf, their diesel subs are a LOT more dangerous in deeper waters. ASW craft can't spot the subs in the water because they are in less than 100 meters of depth. Outside the gulf they can hide and will be harder to find. How hard depends on how competent their trainers were.
How competent their trainers were..

Just feel the need to point out that in the late 70's The US Navy base I was stationed at had many Iranian officers, training as pilots, if they were training for pilots then,  isn't possible they were at other Naval bases training for other positions. I am sure based on what little I have seen, these Iranians are pretty smart.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2011, 04:58:51 PM »
How competent their trainers were..

Just feel the need to point out that in the late 70's The US Navy base I was stationed at had many Iranian officers, training as pilots, if they were training for pilots then,  isn't possible they were at other Naval bases training for other positions. I am sure based on what little I have seen, these Iranians are pretty smart.

Most of that generation served under the Shah.. a good number of them fled the country, normally after destroying/sabotaging infrastructure. They are one of the reasons you don't see that many Iranian F14s flying, the other being that the parts were unavailable. The ones that didn't.. well more than a few were lined up against a wall and shot, if they were lucky.

The trainers of the Iranian Navy who pilot the subs.. were Russian, and the members of that Navy aren't from the same core group of people that the Shah had when he ruled.

Online ZeitgeistTopic starter

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2011, 09:11:53 PM »
This document (PDF), from 2008 details what is know of the Iranian submarine program.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/iran-navy.pdf

It says that Iran has three classifications of submarines: Kilo, Yono, and Nahang. The first are full-sized modern diesel-electric submarines, and the other two are mini-subs.

I cannot claim to be any kind of expert on ASW certainly. The only subs that could pose a threat outside the Gulf region are the Kilo submarines, unless perhaps if the mini-subs could be deployed elsewhere by some means, say from a surface ship.

While I appreciate that a modern diesel-electric sub can run quietly, I do believe they have to surface to recharge batteries. It's possible I'm mistaken there though. Any sub of this class would have to likely go around the southern tip of Africa to reach the Atlantic, and if they didn't have to make a port of call on the way there, they'd likely have to make one on the return trip. Where would they find a safe, and friendly port along that route?

We get any true inkling they are deploying submarines or ships to the Atlantic, I would imagine our own modern nuclear subs would be on alert and on the look for them.

Any attack upon a civilian ship by an Iranian warship would most certainly be tantamount to a declaration of war.

Yeah, it's possible they could pull something off. Once maybe. And then they've doomed their country and people that decades to come.

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Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2011, 09:20:17 PM »
play something horribly rythmic, the kind of booty shaking stuff that people have a hard time getting out of their heads

I'm thinking of the scene in 'Down Periscope' where the guys in the sub played 'Louie, Louie' to baffle the eavesdropping naval ship that was chasing them.  This also has the advantage of driving them crazy as they try to decipher the lyrics without the benefit of YouTube.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2011, 09:55:29 PM »
This document (PDF), from 2008 details what is know of the Iranian submarine program.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/iran-navy.pdf

It says that Iran has three classifications of submarines: Kilo, Yono, and Nahang. The first are full-sized modern diesel-electric submarines, and the other two are mini-subs.

I cannot claim to be any kind of expert on ASW certainly. The only subs that could pose a threat outside the Gulf region are the Kilo submarines, unless perhaps if the mini-subs could be deployed elsewhere by some means, say from a surface ship.

While I appreciate that a modern diesel-electric sub can run quietly, I do believe they have to surface to recharge batteries. It's possible I'm mistaken there though. Any sub of this class would have to likely go around the southern tip of Africa to reach the Atlantic, and if they didn't have to make a port of call on the way there, they'd likely have to make one on the return trip. Where would they find a safe, and friendly port along that route?

We get any true inkling they are deploying submarines or ships to the Atlantic, I would imagine our own modern nuclear subs would be on alert and on the look for them.

Any attack upon a civilian ship by an Iranian warship would most certainly be tantamount to a declaration of war.

Yeah, it's possible they could pull something off. Once maybe. And then they've doomed their country and people that decades to come.

Interesting read.. fits with what I used to hear while standing watch in the ready rooms. The Iranians won't be doing an up-front in your face war, but like the paper says Asymmetric Warfare. Conventional Warfare in non-standard tactics. Subs would play a good role in that. The fact that the more traditional IRIN (Islamic Republic of Iran Navy) have the Kilos says a lot. They are the more formally trained and structured group of the two naval forces the Iranians have. They were the folks who survived the purges of the revolution.

The problem with deploying the Kilos to the US coast line, either side, is indeed a logistical issue. Un-reps (Underway Replenishment) is a very tricky practice and one that I don't think they have in their skill set but that could be part of their reason of doing this 'deployment'. It's a skill set any navy would like to develop.

The use of the Kilos in Asymmetric War would be quite effect. Mine warfare is one of the key points of Iranian strategy. A few well placed mines can be very effective. How far the Kilos can deploy without logistical support is something I couldn't begin to guess. I know that a Nimitz class carrier can go from San Deigo to the IO without major replenishment (a period of several weeks) but at a reduced operational tempo.

Tactically it is possible for a kilo to slip the straits, since the gulf is fairly shallow (which hinders sonobouy deployment in areas.. along with the small area of the Gulf making it easy for enemies to tap and use the network itself). Once outside the gulf.. I hate to say it.. but there is a 'fuck-ton of ocean' to hide in. Once you slip out, you can 'breath' and refuel with 'merchant' craft that is prior deployed.

Easy? No.

Possible.. maybe.


Offline itsbeenfun2000

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2011, 12:19:39 AM »
It is not them being in international waters that they should be concerned about. It is what will happen if they stray into our waters. Think three hikers that "wandered over" to the Iran side of the border with Iraq. How do you get a warship back once its commodered

Offline Bayushi

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2011, 04:43:27 AM »
There are far greater concerns than potential attacks on civilian shipping.

Iran has a pretty good sized amount of fissile material. Some believe they may already have a bomb or two. Even if not, a sufficiently large enough dirty bomb that close to the the American coastline, along with the gulf stream/trans-Atlantic conveyor belt (or whatever they're calling it now) can cause a massive amount of problems via radiation.

Losing the subs and/or ships would be of little concern, as long as the Ayatollah's can fck with us somehow (they're that petty).

Offline Missy

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2011, 12:06:31 AM »
If they released any kind of nuclear device, even in international waters, it would constitute an act of terrorism. he's already unpopular with the U.N., that would just be him signing his death warrant. I hope he doesn't seriously think he can get away with something just because any war would be costly for the allies.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2011, 07:24:16 AM »
Unless he thinks our President won't be willing to commit the country to another Middle Eastern war right after he ended an extremely unpopular one as election season is coming up. It's nonexistent-level unlikely that we wouldn't immediately turn right around and obliterate him, election year or no, but he's a megalomanical loon who might believe otherwise.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2011, 11:14:34 AM »
 I'd like to think that even a megalomanical loon would realize that a nuke going off on our shores WILL get a massive response and that Iran will be the first on the list of suspects that supplied the nuke.  A nuke almost guarantees a massive retaliation and very possibly a nuclear response back.

As for ships off our coast, they'll be watched and trailed. Especially if they come near or in our territorial waters. He'd have to be a colossal idiot to order his ships to provoke us in our own waters.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2011, 12:01:54 PM »
I'd like to think that even a megalomanical loon would realize that a nuke going off on our shores WILL get a massive response and that Iran will be the first on the list of suspects that supplied the nuke.  A nuke almost guarantees a massive retaliation and very possibly a nuclear response back.

As for ships off our coast, they'll be watched and trailed. Especially if they come near or in our territorial waters. He'd have to be a colossal idiot to order his ships to provoke us in our own waters.

I think our rules of engagement in such incidents is respond in like. IE.. WMD means a WMD back.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2011, 12:05:49 PM »
 I can't help but think there is a good sized number of people in the US that would be stridently against a nuclear retaliation because we 1; probably deserved it, 2; we should understand WHY they felt they had to do it, 3; we cannot because we are so powerful we shouldn't, 4; it wouldn't be right, and 5; we are better that that and should not respond to any violent provocation with violence.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2011, 12:16:10 PM »
I can't help but think there is a good sized number of people in the US that would be stridently against a nuclear retaliation because we 1; probably deserved it, 2; we should understand WHY they felt they had to do it, 3; we cannot because we are so powerful we shouldn't, 4; it wouldn't be right, and 5; we are better that that and should not respond to any violent provocation with violence.

No one deserves to kill thousands (or possibly millions) of people to death simply because some of your religious leaders say they are bad people. Neither does anyone merit some of the other WMDs that are out there. Biological and Chemical warfare is insidious, evil and beyond cruel. I had to study the methods and actions of Chemical/Biological/Nuclear warfare while I was in service.

I heartily agree that all three methods should be removed from use by treaties. You can't put the genie back in the bottle, but you can agree that there are some things that shouldn't be done. We just had 50 years of insanity between the Soviets and West, and we don't need to continue such things.

Unfortunately there will always be some fool who think that there is such a thing as 'limited use'.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2011, 12:16:56 PM »
And 6) The political fallout (no pun intended) would be an incredibly dangerous chip to hand to the other party, whoever that happens to be at the time.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2011, 12:31:57 PM »
And 6) The political fallout (no pun intended) would be an incredibly dangerous chip to hand to the other party, whoever that happens to be at the time.

There is the twist to that.. the political GAIN striking such a blow against a foe can be gained. In the estimation of their peers. I mean, do that to the most powerful Nuclear power on the planet could be seen as a coup. Not to mention there are several groups in that region that think we're a 'paper dragon' and won't retaliate. Not to mention given our lack of military forces, given the last decade and a half of downsizing.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2011, 12:39:02 PM »
I was talking about the retaliation, actually - it'd be a political goldmine for the opposing American party if the party-in-power deployed a nuclear response, and almost as much if they didn't.

Offline Zakharra

Re: Iran to send ships near U.S. coast
« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2011, 12:45:00 PM »
There is the twist to that.. the political GAIN striking such a blow against a foe can be gained. In the estimation of their peers. I mean, do that to the most powerful Nuclear power on the planet could be seen as a coup. Not to mention there are several groups in that region that think we're a 'paper dragon' and won't retaliate. Not to mention given our lack of military forces, given the last decade and a half of downsizing.

 Exactly. If we did not retaliate or respond in any significant way, we'd be showing our enemies that we did not have the will to fight. That was a major reason that Bin Laden attacked and continued to attack us. He seriously believed that we would not respond to 9-11.  If Iran succeeded in doing that to us and not getting blasted off the planet, it strengthens their position immensely in the region. They, not the US, would be seen as the dominating nation there and since they would have proven they have one nuke and the skills to make it, they can easily use that leverage to bully the nations around them into seeing things their way.   The old 'conversion by the sword' method.

 If we didn't retaliate  from a nuclear attack, we'd be inviting more such attacks.  In a situation like that, the US President would look very very bad if he did not respond with a heavy military force.