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Author Topic: US Debt Limit To Be Hit  (Read 6007 times)

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Offline itsbeenfun2000

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #25 on: April 25, 2011, 11:41:53 PM »
Should also point out is we learn from our mistakes. At the beginning of World War 2 we were 39Th right behind Portugal in military strength. Would Japan or anyone else have attacked us if we had kept our military and modernized it between the wars? Would the depression have been as bad if we were spending money on our military. The US military is one of the biggest employers in the States between the men and women who serve and the companies that make the hardware. How bad would this recession have been with out that outlet for employment?

I am not saying we shouldn't cut back the military spending, however we will not be put in the position of being attacked again.


Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2011, 11:52:15 PM »
Before the Bush Administration CASTRATED Blue state bases in the last round of base closures the US Navy was the LARGEST employer in the state of Maine. And a lot of folks don't realize that every dollar earned on a base typically goes through a local community about 4 to 6 times before leaving the area. That's gas stations, stores, hotels, rental properties and other things that no one else provides.

My folks visited Maine before NAFTA killed what little textile industry it had and I lived there during my last round as a Sailor. Losing the Navy in Maine is definitely not going to help the economy.

Offline Kate

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #27 on: April 26, 2011, 04:20:43 AM »
The USA has a very low tax rate.. especially for high earners.

The ratio of cash that is placed into military is ridiculously high.

Also it greatly subsidizes some industries perpetually ( eg wheat belt ) (if the industry can not compete with international market on its own footing - dont subsidize it - and those trying to compete go out of business in the short term but later those who would have been in a subsidized industry go into others (ie wheat shouldn't have a future in America in its current state) or if you feel you can automate it etc to compete - great ! then it does become commercially viable.

Subsidies shouldn't exist for industries. (Health / education / R and D being the exceptions)

I beleive USA has a deficit persisting with this aspect of their economic model

Offline Zakharra

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #28 on: April 26, 2011, 10:42:38 AM »
 Reducing the US military 80% would create a huge power vacuum and Russia and China would be very quick to step up to exploit that.  China especially. They'd take back Tiawan as soon as they felt capable. The US military power is what allows a lot of nations to have smaller military than they otherwise would normally have. And I think it would make the world a less safe place than it is now.


 
I agree navies are handy during disaster relief.

But a "true navy fleet"  and a "disaster relief" fleet are two very different things.

Yes a disaster relief fleet needs the means to defend itself and secure SOME areas.

But the cost of one would be VERY much less than the cost of a navy that also happens to have some disaster relief options
or the size of a navy fleet that has to exist to have the same capacity for humanitarian aid than a dedicated fleet created with that purpose.

 The US Navy is used for many things. If it was 20% the size it is now, your 'relief' fleet would not exist because the USN would not be able to project the ships, men and material as easily as it can now. It's easily done now because it is a large and powerful fleet. Reduce that and you reduce it's effectiveness drastically. 

Quote
Personally I think 1/2 the reason why america has been so involved in so many wars was because they can,
and are getting used to the idea... this is way beyond national security ... and only realy justified by
"national defense" being interpreted as

"what we want in power which is pro-US for 10 years time thus being less of a risk, more of a boon long term, investment in possible future stuff. This intrusive and selfish insolvent in the affairs of others really should be what the UN does.".

If the US cut their budget to 1/5th they still would be king of the hill in a major way (it still can pay the same in military research projects) I mean what is currently operational or "good to go in short notice"

... currently their policy concerning miliatry is being able to bring overwhelming superiority EVERYWHERE AT ONCE....
(ie a bully in ALL playgrounds ... with the attitude of it being justified as everything indirectly effects america thus we have america's interest everywhere) this really is what a UN is needed for, not a country.

 A little clue Kate, every single country does things for it's own personal national interests. They always have and always will. If the US military budget was cut, we would be the kingf of the hill for maybe 5 years. After that, not a chance unless we started rebuilding the military again to previous levels.

Quote
How much money that frees immediately would be maying that debt off in spades, once you have paid it off then look back on what you want to spend it on.

You know, grow up a little... stop buying toys.


 That's short term thinking. Without an effective defense, you cannot protect anything for very long.

Offline Kate

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #29 on: April 26, 2011, 10:59:22 AM »
Quote
A little clue Kate, every single country does things for it's own personal national interests. They always have and always will. If the US military budget was cut, we would be the kingf of the hill for maybe 5 years. After that, not a chance unless we started rebuilding the military again to previous levels.

... then cut it for 5 years.

Or ... option  2 ...

choose to be starving rioting (extremely well armed) mobs that collapses like russia ... where all that military h/w gets given away to whoever has enough cash to perk an admirals interest.

Or option 3 ...

invade places which have resources that could keep something unsustainable going for another few more years (I dont mean to imply this was or is the desire of American civilians)

« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 11:01:23 AM by Kate »

Offline Oniya

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2011, 11:03:03 AM »
Or option 4:  Stop catering to corporate and ultra-rich interests and focus on the majority.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2011, 11:19:41 AM »
Or option 4:  Stop catering to corporate and ultra-rich interests and focus on the majority.

If only that were likely to happen. One of the reasons the economy is such a mess is because Congress has its own economy - one that runs on the pork standard.

Offline Oniya

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2011, 11:33:07 AM »
If only that were likely to happen. One of the reasons the economy is such a mess is because Congress has its own economy - one that runs on the pork standard.

Oh, I agree completely.  However it is an option that the previous post seems to have not mentioned.

Offline Zakharra

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2011, 11:37:12 AM »
... then cut it for 5 years.

 That is unworkable. You can cut funding and drop the military extremely fast. It'd be easy to reduce to 20% it's size in a year.  But rebuilding it later would take a lot longer and cost a LOT more than keeping the military more or less at the same level it is now. Especially if you got into a shooting war.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 06:25:39 PM by Zakharra »

Offline Jude

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #34 on: April 26, 2011, 11:38:51 AM »
I'm confused as to why we're still talking about cutting the military as a singular effective solution (or even a large component) when the numbers have already been posted, and the entire military budget only accounts for about a half of the budget deficit.  Also, remember that debt and deficit are not the same thing.  Deficit is the shortfall for every budget, aka how much we're adding onto the debt.  In order to get out of debt, the deficit needs to be nonexistent, you need a surplus year to year so that you can pay down on the debt.

Now if you want a real solution out of the debt, it's going to take sacrifice across the board.  We're going to have to cut spending to a level that is below what we will be able to afford once we're out of the debt crisis.  The longer we wait to do it, the deeper the cuts are going to have to be in order to pay down a significant portion of the debt and to pay for the interest on the debt (which will decease gradually as the debt goes down).  We will then be able to phase out some of the cuts as our country's debt outlook improves.

Nothing should be considered immune; both parties need to sacrifice their holy cows if we're going to reverse course here.  That means doing away with some tax loopholes for corporations the wealthy, raising taxes on the wealthiest of Americans, cutting social security benefits, welfare, reducing foreign aid, so on and so forth.  I think, in the end, the amount of money saved/generated should reach parity on both liberal and conservative issues, and we might consider letting liberals and conservatives in congress determine where their half of the savings comes from (i.e. liberals will be in charge of cutting 65% of the deficit out of liberal causes and conservatives will be in charge of cutting 65% of the deficit/raising taxes/reforming write-offs from issues conservatives value -- this way there will be a 30% surplus we can use to pay down on the debt).

Unfortunately, I don't think congress is mature enough to pass the pain around and take such a centrist solution.  They'll fight it in order to protect their base at everyone's cost.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #35 on: April 26, 2011, 11:42:14 AM »
The ratio of cash that is placed into military is ridiculously high.

Also it greatly subsidizes some industries perpetually ( eg wheat belt ) (if the industry can not compete with international market on its own footing - dont subsidize it - and those trying to compete go out of business in the short term but later those who would have been in a subsidized industry go into others (ie wheat shouldn't have a future in America in its current state) or if you feel you can automate it etc to compete - great ! then it does become commercially viable.

Subsidies shouldn't exist for industries. (Health / education / R and D being the exceptions)

I beleive USA has a deficit persisting with this aspect of their economic model


Like your PC?  That started as a result of the drive to miniaturize transistors by the US military. Like being on the site? The Internet and a very substantial portion of the networking model was developed by DARPA, the US military research arm.  No matter where you are (unless your a stone age tribesman somewhere) odds are military research helped out somewhere in your life.

As for US subsidies, I don't think that is a problem. Especially after seeing what the EU and Asain nations give their own folks. If anything, the US gives less subsidies than other nations   


Offline Oniya

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #36 on: April 26, 2011, 11:47:41 AM »
Since the wheat industry was brought up:

Did you know that the US accounts for over 10% of the world's wheat production?  And that it accounts for over 25% of the world's wheat exports?  Yeah, that's nothing to keep around.

Offline itsbeenfun2000

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #37 on: April 26, 2011, 08:38:03 PM »
And we could account for more of the food to the world at any given time. During WW2 90% of the vegtables eaten in the United States were from back yard "victory gardens"

Offline Kate

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #38 on: April 27, 2011, 05:55:43 AM »
wheat was deemed something of international security interest as indepedandant food supply was a military risk area.

As such the us government subsidized that industry to keep it going regardless of viability.

Its cost is to keep it competitive (and intentionally or otherwise literally hurt other nations ability to sell wheet that isnt subsidized.

masssive tarriffs exist for others if you wish to sell to the us... so none can really sell their wheat there as they can't compete with the non-tarriff wheat.

And none can really sell wheat overseas as te cost of wheat (being primary producer) is greatly reduced (ie below cost).

During WWII it was sensible - as no other place really existed that wasnt bombed, it isnt now, but historically a hangover we are all feeling.

America doing this is hurting america and other countries.

Offline Callie Del Noire

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #39 on: April 27, 2011, 06:29:42 AM »
American agricultural subsidies aren't that big Kate. I know that EU's CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) is HUGE and the Japanese farm lobby and such is even worse. The CAP was something like.. 45 BILLION Euro while I was in Europe around 06. That is a very very big segment of the EU budget.


Offline Zakharra

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #40 on: April 27, 2011, 09:32:37 AM »
  I think they pay farmers more to not grow crops than they do to grow them.

Offline Kate

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #41 on: April 27, 2011, 09:55:19 AM »
Well lets say that there are a lot of pretty obvious partial solutions if your outside looking in.

Sure most steps will not be popular universally, but what ever is ?

Offline Jude

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #42 on: April 27, 2011, 10:21:08 AM »
I wonder how many people outside looking in have actually looked at the budget to know what to cut.

Offline Oniya

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #43 on: April 27, 2011, 02:29:13 PM »
Well, here's an opinion from someone who has been on the inside:

http://robertreich.org/post/4962078752

Quote
The most significant economic news from the first quarter of 2011 is the decline in real wages. That’s unusual in a recovery, to say the least. But it’s easily explained this time around. In order to keep the jobs they have, millions of Americans are accepting shrinking paychecks. If they’ve been fired, the only way they can land a new job is to accept even smaller ones.

The wage squeeze is putting most households in a double bind. Before the recession, they’d been able to pay the bills because they had two paychecks. Now, they’re likely to have one-and-a half, or just one, and it’s shrinking.

Add to this the continuing decline in the value of the biggest asset most people own – their homes – and what do you get? Consumers who won’t and can’t buy enough to keep the economy going. That spells recession.

Offline Yorubi

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #44 on: April 27, 2011, 05:58:01 PM »
Democrats: We want to fix our debt by spending more (though some wisely) and taxing the wealthy!

Republicans: We want to fix our debt by spending less (though some unwisely) and giving tax breaks (to the wealthy mostly)!

Both sides are still being idiots about it. Why don't we not only cut the debt, but also tax the wealthy? Both sides win some and loose some. I just hope the wealthy realize that greed is bad and that being greedy so much will only throw themselves into turmoil (granted they will still be comfortable by far). Please just raise taxes on the weathly who, last I checked, haven't taken any pay cuts of their own that could of saved hundreds of jobs/put many people under less stress.

If they don't like it, to bad. If they are going to be greedy ass holes like they have been to throw people into a mess (yes not all their fault but it is largely their part) and not be giving back to help raise the economy, their needs to be some way to get their polarized money back to where its needed.

Offline TheGlyphstone

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #45 on: April 27, 2011, 06:10:28 PM »
Taxing the wealthy sounds good, but there's a few problems:

1) Defining who is 'wealthy' - $100,000/year income? $200,000? $1,000,000? Too many want to define it as "makes more than me", which is fairly useless.

2) Our tax code has more holes in it than Swiss Cheese - with the proliferation of offshore banking, it's trivial to avoid paying taxes on lots and lots of money and still be completely legal.

3) The "uberwealthy" - the CEOS making salaries that end in "illion" - don't want to be taxed, and they all have small armies of lobbyists to ensure that they don't.

Offline ReijiTabibito

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #46 on: May 01, 2011, 02:16:12 PM »
A handful of days ago, a senator named Bernie Sanders (an Independent from Vermont) appeared on I believe The Daily Show, advertising his book The Speech, about a 8.5 hour long filibuster he gave about the state of the government and the US in general.  In his interview with Jon Stewart, he noted the following:

The top 1% of earners in the US own more wealth than the bottom 50%.  To drive home the point, here's more numbers (and hopefully shocking ones).

That means that 400 people in the US have access to more funds than 150 million combined.  To paraphrase the Bible: my brothers, this should not be.  I'm with Yoru, taxing the rich isn't the solution, but it's almost certainly a step in the right direction.

To answer Glyph's issues, here's my thoughts:

1) Wealthy is a bit vague, so let's start with repealing the tax cuts Bush gave to the wealthy.  Whoever that is, we can at least start there.

2) Yes, our tax code is riddled with problems.  It needs fixing, but the only problem is that it is in the best interest of certain persons to have the code be mind-numbingly frustrating.

3) Lobbyism needs to be cut back severely in DC, if not outright disintegrated.  The issue is that everyone has lobbyists these days...and what exactly do lobbyists do?  As far as I'm aware, they're the jobs that should've gotten the boot first, not our manufacturing ones.

Offline gaggedLouise

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #47 on: May 01, 2011, 04:56:39 PM »
Taxing the wealthy sounds good, but there's a few problems:

1) Defining who is 'wealthy' - $100,000/year income? $200,000? $1,000,000? Too many want to define it as "makes more than me", which is fairly useless.

2) Our tax code has more holes in it than Swiss Cheese - with the proliferation of offshore banking, it's trivial to avoid paying taxes on lots and lots of money and still be completely legal.

3) The "uberwealthy" - the CEOS making salaries that end in "illion" - don't want to be taxed, and they all have small armies of lobbyists to ensure that they don't.

Plus, both highly wealthy people and corporations can easily move so much of their assets to the Cayman Islands, Switzerland or some other place where taxation is near non-existent and secrecy is elevated. Or simply have it paid out to an account in the Caymans in the first place. Governments simply don't have very much leverage with the ultra-rich or the big business anymore; if they want their support - when in office or running for office - they have to perform a lot of pandering to the bigwigs and to the corporations. Of course, people with ordinary wages can't threaten to 'vote with their feet' (emigrate to a sunnier and more easy-going country) near as easily or effectively.

Not just a U.S. issue: you should hear the amount of bullshit we get to hear about how the elite managers and CEOs of Sweden are so extremely driven and soooo in demand on the world stage that if one would raise the taxes a bit, put a roof on bonuses or enforce slightly stricter tabs on how the banks manage money, all the best people would emigrate to more high-paid positions in New York, Paris or Rio de janeiro. Who don't want a CEO from Sweden - you remember Mr.Svanberg and his BP comments in cranky English about caring for "the small people"?  ;D


Actually, few of them have the cultural flair and sense of style of some British and French business moguls - and still fewer, the flamboyancy of Donald Trump. ;) Most of them just seem to hunt, sail and - most of the time - talk business.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2011, 05:10:12 PM by gaggedLouise »

Offline Kate

Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #48 on: July 25, 2011, 07:56:03 AM »
Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide
Like your PC?  That started as a result of the drive to miniaturize transistors by the US military. Like being on the site? The Internet and a very substantial portion of the networking model was developed by DARPA, the US military research arm.  No matter where you are (unless your a stone age tribesman somewhere) odds are military research helped out somewhere in your life.

This is a very similar argument that car-makers talk about when justifying F1 races etc - initially a lot of improvement to civilian cars occurred but from now on they are such different things that the "how does it help civilian life when all things are peaceful" is fractionally less and less.

Also if that cash was spend on other things - like Health research - raw science etc - what sort of kickbacks WOULD have they given - perhaps even better ones... "This came out of it so its justified" argument doesn't consider what could have come from it being channeled elsewhere. Assuming "nothing" is what would have otherwise happened is a little one eyed.

Anyway.

The power vacume thing isn't going to happen in a few years - to be on par to America even if they went out isnt just cash but time. A lot of the navy and air power the americans have is by trial and error trying out different thigns - heaps of navy excersises, trying out this and that in practice - to work out what is practical and not. Spending the same amount of cash in the short term and hoping you will get close - is not cool - it will not work.. its time AND money - but mostly a combination of both that has stabalised over ..... time such that hierarchies and logistics seem to settle and become predictable.

20 aircraft carriers + who knows how many support ships - a "navy fleet" is ridiculous.

And "If we dont protect you - you will get harmed because you don't protect yourselves" is not eactly right, america doesn't do this because it has a desire to be a police force for the world. Constant control over the sea / air etc from almost anywhere is a pretty loud trumpet often blown.

The USA does have a lot of options. Saying "Hey we owe everyone cash - fk you we will only pay 20 cents on the dollar or we will outright not honor any of it - and yeah we will take the hit of others not investing in us for x years" is a choice they can make - which will likely win BECAUSE of how much cash is to be made by trading in America, you will be hated by other countries, but hey money talks (yeah credit rating will reach junk status but not for long).

I know that's unlikely ... but still an option.

Another option.

Sounds weird but it may just work - remember man on the moon project ? The good thing about America is that they can inspire their own populous with a super-project. "Yes we can".

Pick three super-projects ... and if ONE of them works and is owned by America its a world changer on a dime.

Not saying these are the ones ... but of this caliber

Cold fusion and or micro fission
Teleportation (of something practical - doesn't have to be people could be a stream of raw elements or something )
FTL
Low-cost-zero maintenance materials and or super materials (for whatever would vastly help maintenance costs / viability of certain other things)
Super-foods (ie eat this one fruit and it ALREADY has every single goodies a growing person needs for a well balanced diet, this other one is for pregant moms - this other one is for ... )
Artificial womb
Stem-cell-cure-all-organ-growing-vats

Or whatever the scientific community deems "Probably do-able if you through xxx billion dollars and about the same man-hours, until then ... unless we get an indirect breakthrough that eases up some fundamental / conceptual brick wall by pure fluke". Just like going to war - suddenly everyone's employed, and if any breakthroughs come of it (and one or two likely would) - it would set up America really well for x years.

Offline Oniya

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Re: US Debt Limit To Be Hit
« Reply #49 on: July 25, 2011, 12:26:52 PM »
Unfortunately, the government seems to be more interested in buying each others' votes in Congress through appeasement negotiations (I'll put in this cut if you'll vote to raise the debt ceiling) than they are in addressing the issue that the rest of America is interested in - unemployment.

This guy has explained it better than I can.  http://robertreich.org/post/8042268683