War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Beorning]

This is somewhat related:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/05/12/questions-after-missile-landed-in-poland-in-december-but-was-not-found-until-april/

There have been five developments in this matter since that article was written:

1. The general that is being blamed for not informing the Minister of Defense of the situation, did issue a statement. Although he didn't really say anything specific there - mostly, he appealed for caution when voicing opinions etc.

2. The Chief of Staff, the military general who is the direct superior of the general in question, rebutted the Minister of Defense's claims and said that he personally informed the Ministry about the missile. So, somebody is definitely lying here...

3. There was a meeting organized by the President, with the Minister of Defense and both of the generals mentioned above participating. The official statement after the meeting was that, when it comes to that missile, "the procedures were at fault". So, officially, no person is to blame... The political commentators point out, though, that the President's behaviour in recent days clearly shows that he's taking the military's side in this controversy. Which would mean that the Minister of Defense was lying... and that he publicly threw a high-ranking general under the bus to save his own skin.

4. The warhead of the missile has been (finally!) located. As it was claimed earlier, it was a concrete "blank".

5. Despite the Minister of Defense's early claims, the general that had been openly blamed for the situation, was not dismissed. So, it was decided he has not made any errors? But, in turn, the Minister of Defense (or anyone in the ministry, for that matter) was not dismissed, either...

So, to summarize:

1. In December, a Russian missile enters Polish airspace and makes it about 400 km (!) into Polish territory before hitting ground.

2. For some reason (be it military incompetence or the Minister of Defense's political calculations) no real search for the missile is conducted.

3. The wreckage of the missile (with its payload unknown - it could've been a nuclear warhead for all we know...) is lying unbother in a forest for 4 months (!).

4. In April, the wreckage is finally found... when a civilian stumbles upon it. Only then it's confirmed that the missile was harmless.

5. No person in the relevant institutions (the Polish military and the Ministry of Defense) is punished for allowing this situation to happen. "The procedures were at fault! Stuff happens! Move along, nothing to see!"

Only in Poland... under the current government, at least. Also, something to keep in mind for those in the West that claim that Poland is going to become a regional military superpower soon...

[Oniya]

It's too bad that Peter Sellers is long gone...

[GloomCookie]

I'm curious why the situation wasn't looked into until now. Was everyone effectively looking to cover their own asses before they did anything, to ensure that even if someone else took the heat that they were still ok? It boggles my mind that it took so long to get the matter looked into.

[Beorning]

The most probable answer is, I suspect, politics. As well as propaganda needs.

The current Polish government is really, really fond of lying. According to their messaging, they are the best government Poland has ever had, the one true patriotic party etc. That includes the propaganda they spread about Poland's situation in the face of the war.

For months now, the government has kept saying: "Don't worry, people! We're the first government that treats matters of defense seriously. We're forging strong international alliances. And we bought a lot of military hardware! Don't be scared, we're totally safe!".

And then, there came last November... and that incident with Ukrainian air defense rocket flying across the border and killing two people here. Everybody was shocked. And our government rushed to assure us that no, this was just one accident, we're definitely totally safe. Heck, when Germany offered to lend us their Patriot battery, our government initially *declined*... with Jarosław Kaczyński (the head of the ruling party AKA the self-proclaimed "one of the wisest men in the world" AKA the Saviour of the Nation) stating that the German soldiers can't be trusted to actually shoot at incoming Russian missiles. We literally had to be pressured by NATO to accept German help. After all that, the Minister of Defense proudly proclaimed: "The Polish sky is safe! We've built a multi-layer defense system! No missile can hit us!"

And after all this... a mere few weeks after all this... a Russian missile does fly across the border. And makes it 400 km into our territory without being stopped by the famed "multi-layered defense system".

So... can you see why this might be a problem for the ruling party? Especially the Minister of Defense, who is trying to build himself up? And who is considered to be a probable political heir to our Glorious Leader?

And so, it's possible that the Minister ordered to hush the whole matter up. And not to look for the crashed missile too intensely. Because driving attention to the fact that Poland is definitely not as safe as the government boasts, would be bad.

So, out of political convenience, they decided to leave that missing, potentially armed missile lying around somewhere... 

Yeah, it's idiotic - but that's the current Polish government for you...

[tiberianius]

So I am hearing rumors of a Freedom of Russian Legion, non-state actors (Russian citizens) who have been given captured Russian equipment by the Ukrainians and are seeking to remove Putin.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660585231559081984?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

A youtuber I follow who has a lot of interesting discussion on the war in Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3wFRTkH3qg

The idea of using the same tactics that the Russians used to seize Crimea to conduct raids and change the balance of power... Just holy shit.

[Beorning]

What I found amusing is that Ukrainians are now turning Putin's old propaganda on its head... Remember how Putin claimed he didn't know who were the people who seized Crimea? And that these soldiers could've bought their hardware in a random military shop?

Well, now it's the Ukrainian government that claims: "Us? Nooooooo. So what if these insurgents have tanks? You can easily buy tanks in any military shop in Russia!"

[GloomCookie]

I still giggle that the Ukrainian government told farmers they didn't need to report Russian tanks on their taxes when they hauled them off with their tractors.

[Skyguy]

I do like that the Ukrainian government has officially stopped giving a shit. I think the world would be better off over all if government officials just told people like Lavrov to fuck off. Stop pretending to take professional liars seriously.

[Beorning]

Oooooh damn. 

Russians blew up a river dam on Dnipro, causing a massive flood:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65816109

I have no words 

[Vekseid]

They apparently only blew the top part of the dam (dams are rather sturdy structures) so the flooding is not as suddenly catastrophic as the worst-case scenario.

[Humble Scribe]

I see our PM has condemned it. Being British, I think possibly Rishi Sunak might want to keep quiet about the ethics of blowing up dams...

[Azuresun]

Oooooh damn. 

Russians blew up a river dam on Dnipro, causing a massive flood:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65816109

I have no words 

Botski Brigade is going into overdrive. Standard routine of "They did it. You can't prove we did it. You did something worse in the past, probably, we CBA to check. Something something Nordstream Iraq Libya something.". And the Western useful idiots will believe it, even when Russia was flat-out bragging about their plans.



At this point, NATO needs to be keeping eyes on the nuclear power plant 24/7, with troops ready to go in as soon as the Russians try to sabotage that.

[Missy]

They apparently only blew the top part of the dam (dams are rather sturdy structures) so the flooding is not as suddenly catastrophic as the worst-case scenario.

You mean the Russian Army is so good they can't manage to actually blow up an entire damn?

[midnightblack]

You mean the Russian Army is so good they can't manage to actually blow up an entire damn?

Not sure if they had access to the entire dam since the Ukrainians controlled the other side of the river. And in any case, it's a big enough disaster as is no matter who gets to keep the territory in the end. Even if the Russians were to achieve complete victory in the next hour, a significant part of the country has been rendered uninhabitable, many areas will require decades in order for the civilian infrastructure to be rebuilt, industrial infrastructure  in the Donbas has been leveled to dust, large portions of agricultural territory have been rendered unusable due to shelling and mining and so on. They're fighting over a whole lot of dirt at this point.

[Azuresun]

[Beorning]

You guys know what?

Blowing up a dam is one thing. But Russians are actually now shelling the positions of civilians that are trying to evacuate the flooded region.

This is another level of evil 

[Al Terego]

The counteroffensive is long overdue.

[Al Terego]

The counteroffensive is long overdue.

Sorry, meant to write *was*

[Azuresun]

Sorry, meant to write *was*

It's been interesting to watch the botski brigade. Right now, their strategy seems to be to take advantage of Ukranians actually having proper opsec and to focus on the destruction of Western-donated tanks. This is Russia's version of attacking the supply lines, counting on Western support to be fickle and fleeting if they can be persuaded their aid is being "wasted".

[NestorAjax]

I’m personally hailing from Russia, and I’d like to add my own two cents to this.

I’m really surprised that the so called Russian antiwar “opposition” has still not figured out how propaganda really works. Whenever they’re getting targeted by the propagandists, they persistently attempt to rebuke the attacking arguments. Now this could work to some notable extent if this was a legitimate rational debate. However the audience is anything but rational, such people don’t even consciously distinguish statements such as “Ukrainians are racist” and “Ukrainians are not racist”, so trying to enlighten them in such a way is a priori a lost cause.

I wonder why are we not seeing similar verbal counterattacks on the pain points of the Kremlin-based targets whom the propagandists are representing? Nobody’s trying to make a scandal out of Vladimir Putin’s intimate life details for example (which could be a powerful tactical move to divert a lot of his and his cronies’ attention from other matters, seeing how sensitive he appeared to be to such discussions in the past). Now I’ll point out that I am normally against such low blows in public discourse myself, just not when the future of the world is at stake, what with all the nuclear arsenal and supposedly hair-trigger temper (oh, and seeing as Putin already having made it clear that he won’t be respecting any rules when trying to get what he wants). Also a similar tactic was already used before by US intelligence against several Islamic State leaders (who are expected to uphold very strict morals regarding their sex life), and as far as I recall it proved to be quite effective.

[Oniya]

Nobody’s trying to make a scandal out of Vladimir Putin’s intimate life details for example (which could be a powerful tactical move to divert a lot of his and his cronies’ attention from other matters, seeing how sensitive he appeared to be to such discussions in the past). Now I’ll point out that I am normally against such low blows in public discourse myself, just not when the future of the world is at stake, what with all the nuclear arsenal and supposedly hair-trigger temper (oh, and seeing as Putin already having made it clear that he won’t be respecting any rules when trying to get what he wants).

While I haven't seen anything about Putin's sex life, I have seen some click-bait-style articles that suggest serious health issues (I have not, and will not link them here, due to dubious sourcing).  As Putin's big 'thing' is being 'strong' (witness the old 'shirtless Putin' memes, as well as his rhetoric) wouldn't this be an equivalent to tossing around whispers about supposedly moral leaders' sex lives?

[NestorAjax]

While I haven't seen anything about Putin's sex life, I have seen some click-bait-style articles that suggest serious health issues (I have not, and will not link them here, due to dubious sourcing).  As Putin's big 'thing' is being 'strong' (witness the old 'shirtless Putin' memes, as well as his rhetoric) wouldn't this be an equivalent to tossing around whispers about supposedly moral leaders' sex lives?

I was thinking more of things such as a list of Alina Kabaeva’s past and current partners. They came down really hard on any slightest suggestion of her engagement with VP in mass media within Kremlin’s reach, despite there being plenty of evidence. I can imagine an investigation on that published by a notorious player such as Navalny’s ACF totally wreaking havoc on Putin’s capacity to maintain his vertical of power.

[Al Terego]

Even if they manage to paint Putin in an unflattering light, would it make any difference?
It's not like he has to worry about being re-elected.

[TheGlyphstone]

I think it's less about the opinions of the proles and more undermining his image in the eyes of his underlings/supporters, the people he actually does need to keep his power base. Which is why I'm not sure it would work as well - they're not following him for his moral character, but for the benefits they get. The only way to really weaken his position is to make him lose, make him look weak and vulnerable.

[Oniya]

Even if they manage to paint Putin in an unflattering light, would it make any difference?
It's not like he has to worry about being re-elected.

There are other ways to remove someone from power than elections.  If Putin is seen as a liability to Russia, someone stronger than him will undoubtedly start considering those options.