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Palestine accorded State status by UN

Started by Callie Del Noire, December 01, 2012, 01:30:47 PM

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Dashenka

Kazakhstan's got oil. Where do you think Dubai gets its oil from?
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#26
Quote from: Dashenka on December 16, 2012, 03:58:25 PM
Kazakhstan's got oil. Where do you think Dubai gets its oil from?

The UAE actually has more than double Kazakhstan's reserves, or did as of 2010. A useful guide as to who's got the oil:



More than 60% of the remaining reserves are in the Middle East.
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Deamonbane

Really? *thinks* I was under the impression that Russia holds quite a few of the largest oil reserves, with Venezuela and Brazil holding many rather important ones as well...
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Cyrano Johnson

Quote from: Deamonbane on December 17, 2012, 03:55:35 PM
Really? *thinks* I was under the impression that Russia holds quite a few of the largest oil reserves, with Venezuela and Brazil holding many rather important ones as well...

Oh they're significant. You'll see them reflected on the map I linked. But yes, the biggest reserves are quite definitely the Middle Eastern reserves.
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Moraline

I don't think I am reading that map correctly.

Here's a statistic:

"Alberta(Canada) ranks third, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, in terms of proven global crude oil reserves."
~ http://www.energy.alberta.ca/oilsands/791.asp

Cyrano Johnson

#30
Quote from: Moraline on December 17, 2012, 07:24:56 PM"Alberta(Canada) ranks third, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, in terms of proven global crude oil reserves."
~ http://www.energy.alberta.ca/oilsands/791.asp

The map is being reshuffled recently as new technology makes previously untapped fields exploitable. The bulk of the added reserves being claimed for Alberta* and Venezuela are tar sands, once thought to be unexploitable (and still heavily controversial as to whether the cost/ benefit ratio of exploiting them is worthwhile). The 2010 map is tracking the reserves available to the traditional (and still most economical) drilling techniques.

Even counting the tar sands, though, note that six of the ten largest reserves are still in the Middle East or North Africa. Point being it doesn't really matter the metric you use, Middle Eastern oil is hugely economically and strategically important. It will remain so for some decades more -- although less so once the fastest-depleting and largest of them, in Saudi Arabia, is mostly tapped.

(* Bit of propaganda in the third-in-the-world claim from the Alberta government, though. I've lived most of my life here and trust me, the Alberta government is not above a bit of creative accounting to make its tar sands project look rosier than it actually is.)
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Moraline

The figures of Alberta's oil is well known. That link was from Alberta but all you need to do is google or youtube Tar Sands to find out plenty of sources to back that claim up. Some oil companies think there maybe more oil in Alberta then all the Middle East - I've yet to see that proof but watch a few documentaries on youtube for the info.  Whether it's hard to get out of the ground or not, dozens of companies are going ahead with massive operations to extract it.

Alberta, Canada Oil is real. In 10 years, you won't need oil from the Middle East. Our oil might be a bit more expensive because it's in the sand but it's still oil.

Cyrano Johnson

#32
Quote from: Moraline on December 17, 2012, 08:58:41 PM
The figures of Alberta's oil is well known. That link was from Alberta but all you need to do is google or youtube Tar Sands to find out plenty of sources to back that claim up. . . dozens of companies are going ahead with massive operations to extract it.

The well-known figure is quoted in the WikiPedia article I just linked; it doesn't accord with the Alberta government's claim. And like I said, there is controversy about whether the endeavour is really worthwhile. (Basically, it would take a lot worse than the current levels of unrest in the Middle East for it to make Iranian or Saudi oil look irrelevant. I certainly don't see it happening in the next ten years.) There is of course plenty of tar sands propaganda floating around on the 'net; I would be wary of taking any of it at face value. A lot of it comes from people who, like the Alberta government, are the opposite of disinterested analysts.

EDIT: In the bigger picture, I think the tar sands are likely to be something of a sideshow. The real question of the next few decades is whether solar, an actually renewable resource, can be made economical. There is no scenario in which oil becomes unimportant, but there are possible scenarios that don't involve running tar sands pipelines through crucial watersheds. Since I'm rather attached to the civilized luxury of potable water, I think it might be nice to see those explored with a bit more priority. (That won't necessarily eliminate the Middle East from the equation either, though; Saudi Arabia would be an ideal frontier for the development of large-scale solar power.)
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Moraline

More off topic Tar Sands and Oil talk
Whether the Tar Sands are worth it or not is a moot point. Dozens of major oil companies have already bought land and are currently in the process of setting up massive Tar Sands oil extraction and refinery plants. If you look up the Wiki article on Tar Sands you'll see a huge list of already approved mines/plants that are in process of being built.

Whether it is good or not, doesn't matter anymore. People are already doing it. It will take 2-4 years for most of those refineries to fully come online but they are already happening. These oil companies have invested 100's of millions of dollars into them. It's not stopping - short of a massive change of government policy. Which I don't see happening.

It's a lot further along then you realize.

Oil is essential and it'll be extracted from the ground no matter what. The world is only using more of it and not less. The oil that we use to produce power/operate machinery only consumes a little over half the oil we pull out of the ground. The other almost half is used for other products (asphalt, plastics, etc..) 

I'll stop with the digression though.. back on topic...

Oil isn't the reasoning though for Palestine and Israel's conflict.

Palestinians want their land back. Israel believes it's theirs. - See my previous post with the real cause for the conflict between the nations. That and the other Arab nations want the land too.

All I know for certain, is that I don't see any end in sight for the conflict. Most governments in the middle east are extremists, even the moderates are extreme by North American standards. I personally find the tension to be intimidating and frightening.


Cyrano Johnson

#34
Quote from: Moraline on December 17, 2012, 10:08:28 PMWhether the Tar Sands are worth it or not is a moot point. . . It's a lot further along then you realize.

I happen to know people who live and work in Fort Mac, and I'm plenty conversant with how far along it is, thanks. However, mining projects are known to fail, or to have false starts, no matter how many people have invested in them or how far along they get or how much propaganda is produced by the investors. If the tar sands become nonviable, the investment will shift elsewhere. That's ultimately how these things work. (EDIT: Not that I think absolute failure is likely. Oil is being shipped and money being made from the tar sands right now, and at some level that will continue to be true; the levels will vary along with the economy. But I can pretty much promise you that anyone who is telling you that the tar sands will produce "energy independence" or will eclipse mideast oil in the next decade is bullshitting you.)

The simple fact of the matter is that the economic viability of tar sands extraction is fragile in a way that traditional drilling and reserves are not. The smart bet is therefore that the traditional drilling and reserves will remain more important for a long time to come, and that tar sands are never likely to be the world's leading source of energy in any form.

QuoteOil isn't the reasoning though for Palestine and Israel's conflict.

It is however the biggest reason that it's strategically important. Without Mid-East oil, Israel's right wing would not have a major superpower backing its most radical impulses come what may; the US does this because it believes Israel to be a crucial ally in a crucial region. (I don't think it gets much for its investment, but that's the logic.)

Those factors shape the resolution of colonial conflicts, and that's what Israel is (understanding as one might be about the motivations behind it). Without that unquestioning external backing, the whole project of political Zionism would quickly find its options narrowing, muc as happened in South Africa. With that backing, it has little motivation to come to terms. That's why the conflict is likely to drag out... but it doesn't make the outcomes rosy for Israel, it just prolongs and worsens the divisions already created both in the Israeli populace and in world Judaism by the brutal spectacle of occupation, and increases the likelihood of one-state-democracy campaigning by the Palestinians that will be much harder to oppose credibly.

Of course in a cynical mood, one might say that no "two-state" reconciliation was ever really possible -- that both sides just used it as a transitional demand while allowing their so-called "extremists" take the blame for pushing the long-term agenda ("oh, those crazy settlers, what will we ever do with them" / "oh, those nasty suicide bombers, we really just want peace"). That's highly speculative, though.

(EDIT: At any rate, there is in fact much less to fear from "extremism" of governments in the region now than there historically has been. Iran is well past the peak of the extremes of the Islamic Revolution. Iraq had declined into senescence under Saddam, and since the disastrous invasion is now basically an Iranian client. Saudi Arabia, for all its support of Wahhabism, has never in the past fifty years been more concerned with anything than with oil profits. Egypt's stance of accommodation toward Israel remains intact, Muslim Brotherhood government or not. Israel is no longer even a unilateral nuclear threat in the region as it was for several decades before the early 21st century. There is no government in the region that's eager to renew the 1948 war -- if anything Iran is a bigger worry for most of the Arab world -- and other governments feel much less threatened by Israel ever since Hezbollah demonstrated in the recent "July War" that the Merkava tank could be stopped with the right tactics. Israel's real problem now is the blind alley its own intransigence has led it to.)

(Further edited to remove overuse of the word "ultimately.")
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Dashenka

Quote from: Deamonbane on December 17, 2012, 03:55:35 PM
Really? *thinks* I was under the impression that Russia holds quite a few of the largest oil reserves, with Venezuela and Brazil holding many rather important ones as well...

Russia has gas, not oil. I think Russia holds the largest gas reserves.

Back to the Palestine/Israel conversation, because there is a relation to the oil. The ONLY reason (self claimed) world leading nations like America and the EU still support Israel, even after so many international war crimes they commit on very large scale, is because they are the only western oriented country in the middle east. If these countries let Israel go as an ally, they won't have 'friends' in the middle east and they cannot monitor what is going on over there.

If America and Europe really condamn what Israel is doing on the westbank by building houses and attacking relief ships in the Mediterranean Sea, they should let Israel know, and not just with words. Israel is behaving the way they are because they have the full support of Europe and America. These two nations/regions have the power to stop the 'war' by telling off Israel and their criminal government.

I believe that this protectiveness towards Israel is the reason why the Russian government is against any military intervention in Syria. If there is going to be a military intervention in Syria, there should be one in Israel as well to relief them from power, which there will never be.

Unfortunately
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Moraline

I think it's way to popular to condemn Israel. I'm not saying they are saints or even the good guys.

There is no good guy over there and no one is innocent. This is the reason that the US has trouble finding a way to prevent further bloodshed.

Hamas hides behind a human shield wall then cries fowl when Israel attacks them. Meanwhile Hamas blows up bombs in the middle of open air markets killing innocent people.

How is Israel to fight back against an enemy that does this?

What do people want Israel to do? Do you want them to just give up their land, homes, and dissolve their Country?

The Palestinian militants and citizens alike as well as the rest of the Arab nations have said time and time again that nothing else will make them happy. They want the complete and absolute dissolving of the Israel country. (There are numerous interviews, docu's, news articles, etc showing multiple political figures and citizens of the mid east all saying this.)

That's like the native North Americans telling all of the other people to get out of the US. Israel won't do it without a fight.

Oil, international politics, all of the rest of it doesn't matter. It's all about Holy Land and a Holy War for every nation in the Mid-East.

Note: The only reason that Israel hasn't already steamrolled across many nations of the Mid-East is because the US & UN have stopped them. Israel has been more then powerful enough to do it for decades now.

Cyrano Johnson

#37
Like I said earlier in the thread, the view that portrays Hamas as just irrationally and savagely on the attack all the time is bullshit. (It's the same bullshit that used to be deployed against the PLO for that matter.) Israel is and always has been an active participant and frequent instigator in the violence and one of two parties "hiding behind a human shield wall and then crying foul."

The line that the only thing the Arabs will accept is the Jews driven into the sea is also bullshit. The various Arab parties to the conflict have far more officially and consistently said that they're willing to accept the two-state solution. That includes Hamas, by the way. So "what do you want Israel to do, just dissolve?" is a loaded and inaccurate question based a bullshit reduction of the Arab world to the most extreme views expressed therein. (If someone pulled that with the Israelis, you'd have no trouble identifying it as anti-Semitism, right?)

What Israel should have done was not allow the settler movement to scuttle the two-state solution; it wasn't the Arabs who destroyed that process. I really do think allowing the far right to kill Rabin without consequence was the turning point there: had Israeli leadership stood firm, chased down the murderers and disavowed the settler agenda, it could probably by now have had a stable Jewish state and a Palestinian buffer zone beholden to it for protection.

Now that it's fucked that up, there are no good options. Israel can basically only hope to try to sell some thin parody of the two-state solution to Hamas (which won't accept it, since there is no way to build a viable state on what's left); or hold on to the Jewish state by perpetuating the occupation indefinitely, which of course is monstrous and will continue to destroy its reputation and credibility around the world.

In the long term the advantage lies with the Arabs. The Middle East is not North America, however much the original Zionists fantasized it would be; the Palestinians will not fade away or quietly moulder on reserves, which is much as it irritates the Israelis is an inescapable fact. The sympathy Israel won in the wake of the Holocaust (and also, now conveniently forgotten, the plain fact that none of the victorious Allies wanted the Jews in their backyard) was real and understandable, but that world has waned -- replaced by one in which the reform and conservative wings of Judaism have been set at odds over the question of Israel -- so the rationale of the Israeli state as sole protection of the Jews has likewise waned. And all the "he started it" games in the world can't change the fact that one side here are clearly the colonialists: the Palestinians didn't travel halfway around the world to dispossess the Jews. That will all be hard to escape once the Palestinians decide (and they're already moving toward it) to go for one-state democracy instead of the two-state mirage.

So, I really don't know what Israel should do at this point. Invest in a time machine? There's a point beyond which one has just shat the bed so badly that there is no cleaning it.
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#38
Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 09:08:38 AMNote: The only reason that Israel hasn't already steamrolled across many nations of the Mid-East is because the US & UN have stopped them. Israel has been more then powerful enough to do it for decades now.

That was long thought to be true. Fortunately, Israel actually accidentally self-disproved it with the June War disaster (EDIT: sorry, I mean the July War), where they attempted just this in Lebanon and failed. Nobody doubts that Israel could overcome a conventional attack, but the threat of its "steam-rolling" the region is a lot more distant than it once was. (This actually is a good thing in some ways: a lot of "drive the Jews into the sea" sentiment in the region was based on the military threat Israel posed.)
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Moraline

#39
I don't really see how it was disproved with that conflict? Israel never even used tactical nukes or the rest of it's massive missle stockpiles in that conflict - they were holding back big time.

Quote"The conflict is believed to have killed at least 1,191 Lebanese people, and 165 Israelis. It severely damaged Lebanese civil infrastructure, and displaced approximately one million Lebanese and 300,000–500,000 Israelis. After the ceasefire, some parts of southern Lebanon remained uninhabitable due to Israeli unexploded cluster bomblets." ~ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War (from your link)
Also, it was only stopped when the UN brokered a peace treaty. If left unchecked and if Israel had put their full might into the offensive they could have did a lot more devastation to Lebanon. The Hezbollah is lucky the UN intervened.

Israel can never stop guerrillas or terrorists but they can very easily decimate any country in the region. It's only UN & US threat that keeps them from doing it.


Cyrano Johnson

Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 11:29:21 AM
I don't really see how it was disproved with that conflict? Israel never even used tactical nukes or the rest of it's massive missle stockpiles in that conflict - they were holding back big time.

The central myth of the IDF was supposed to be that it could reproduce Six-Day War-style whoop-ass on demand against any Arab force if it really, really wanted to. Having declared that it really, really wanted to and then having to settle for gaining a thin strip of territory from Hezbollah when their war aim was to wipe them out puts a pretty large puncture in that myth, which is why Olmert came in for such a drubbing on the home front after the war had fizzled out. Saying "they didn't even use their nukes" is beside the point -- they weren't supposed to need nukes to wipe out Hezbollah -- and besides Israel is also no longer a unilateral Mideast nuclear power: any deployment of Israeli nukes is now at large risk of ingniting wider conflagration with Pakistan and then India.
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Oniya

Just as a point, using nukes on land that you intended to be habitable later would be particularly idiotic.
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Technically more about how much later but generally yes :p
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Moraline

Quote from: Cyrano Johnson on December 18, 2012, 11:44:16 AM
The central myth of the IDF was supposed to be that it could reproduce Six-Day War-style whoop-ass on demand against any Arab force if it really, really wanted to. Having declared that it really, really wanted to and then having to settle for gaining a thin strip of territory from Hezbollah when their war aim was to wipe them out puts a pretty large puncture in that myth, which is why Olmert came in for such a drubbing on the home front after the war had fizzled out. Saying "they didn't even use their nukes" is beside the point -- they weren't supposed to need nukes to wipe out Hezbollah -- and besides Israel is also no longer a unilateral Mideast nuclear power: any deployment of Israeli nukes is now at large risk of ingniting wider conflagration with Pakistan and then India.
The enemy suffered 10x the number of causalities. Hezbollah was not going to win that conflict - they lived because the UN stopped Israel.

I don't think anyone would expect the same type of action as the 6 Day War but it's pretty clear from the conflict that you posted that Israel was by far the more superior military force. I posted the base stats that showed what happened.

Also, I don't believe that Israel was intending to take over Lebanon in that conflict. As I recall from the article it was a retaliation for missile strikes by Hezbollah. The intent of Israel was to see that the Hezbollah couldn't do it again. Which they succeeded in doing by taking that thin strip of land and beating the living tar out of Lebanon until the UN stopped them. Then the UN brokered a peace treaty that was supposed to disarm the Hezbollah - that's why Israel agreed to it. Hezbollah didn't disarm, but they certainly didn't try that stunt again because they knew they couldn't win a direct conflict with the Israeli war machine.

I could be wrong about the intent to gain ground but the stats are clear about who was winning that conflict. It most certainly wasn't Hezbollah.
Quote from: Oniya on December 18, 2012, 11:48:02 AM
Just as a point, using nukes on land that you intended to be habitable later would be particularly idiotic.
To get back to the nukes for a moment - Keep in mind that Israel doesn't want to take over the other countries. They want to live in peace in the land that they've already occupied. So bombing other countries isn't really that big of a deal to them accept for the factors that Cyrano mentioned but those other far off countries that have their own set of problems.

Also, remember that every country in the middle east hates the other and they've all betrayed one another multiple times over the last 50+ years(and even longer.) They may all be united in their hatred of Israel but they are not united in their support of one another.

Also in most cases they are barely maintaining stable governments within their own countries. As we know over the last couple years some of them are in the middle of currently crumbling governments.

Again it bares repeating. I'm not supporting Israel or any Mid-East country.

I'm just saying that this isn't a conflict about oil. The media paints the oil picture for oil hungry North Americans but on the ground in the mid-east this conflict is about the Holy Land.


Oniya

Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 12:30:50 PM
To get back to the nukes for a moment - Keep in mind that Israel doesn't want to take over the other countries. They want to live in peace in the land that they've already occupied. So bombing other countries isn't really that big of a deal to them accept for the factors that Cyrano mentioned but those other far off countries that have their own set of problems.

Even detonating nukes near land that you want to be habitable in the immediate future is usually dis-advised.  I imagine if the U.S. dropped nukes on northern Mexico, the folks down in south-western Texas, southern Arizona and southern New Mexico would be rather peeved at the resulting conditions.
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Cyrano Johnson

#45
Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 12:30:50 PMI don't think anyone would expect the same type of action as the 6 Day War but it's pretty clear from the conflict that you posted that Israel was by far the more superior military force. I posted the base stats that showed what happened.

In a conflict where a supposedly elite conventional force manages to maneuver a guerilla force like Hezbollah into conventional engagements -- which is what happened in 2006 -- what should happen if the conventional force is living up to its hype (especially when it's hype like the IDF's) is that the guerillas should get flattened. Not bloodied, not disproportionately damaged, but DESTROYED. Guerilla irregulars are not designed to go head to head with tank divisions.

Hezbollah's destruction (or at minimum complete disarmament) was IDF's stated aim. They failed. That Hezbollah was able to stand up against them in head-to-head engagements and not only survive but ultimately drive them back (under the skirts of a UN peace with nominal and unenforceable disarmament clauses for Hezbollah that amounted to nothing) was a massive shock, and a massive failure. The rest is painting lipstick on a pig, pure and simple.
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Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 12:30:50 PMI'm just saying that this isn't a conflict about oil. The media paints the oil picture for oil hungry North Americans but on the ground in the mid-east this conflict is about the Holy Land.

But again, it is a conflict that is only important because of Mideast oil. Without that, it would attract as much international attention as Liberia.
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Quote from: Oniya on December 18, 2012, 12:35:51 PM
Even detonating nukes near land that you want to be habitable in the immediate future is usually dis-advised.  I imagine if the U.S. dropped nukes on northern Mexico, the folks down in south-western Texas, southern Arizona and southern New Mexico would be rather peeved at the resulting conditions.

Middle East is a big place. A small nuclear strike on a capital city wouldn't be out of the question for keeping Israel out of the fall out zone (think Hiroshima or Nagasaki) However, the strike itself would completely decimate a countries ability to form any sort of government. Also most likely in the small nations of the middle east it would cripple their military.

By the way, the US has detonated 100's of nuclear devices within the US itself. It wouldn't be out of the question for the US to drop a few on Mexico with little affect to the US from fallout.

Nuclear devices are scalable.
Quote from: Cyrano Johnson on December 18, 2012, 01:14:27 PM
In a conflict where a supposedly elite conventional force manages to maneuver a guerilla force like Hezbollah into conventional engagements -- which is what happened in 2006 -- what should happen if the conventional force is living up to its hype (especially when it's hype like the IDF's) is that the guerillas should get flattened. Not bloodied, not disproportionately damaged, but DESTROYED. Guerilla irregulars are not designed to go head to head with tank divisions.

Hezbollah's destruction (or at minimum complete disarmament) was IDF's stated aim. They failed. That Hezbollah was able to stand up against them in head-to-head engagements and not only survive but ultimately drive them back (under the skirts of a UN peace with nominal and unenforceable disarmament clauses for Hezbollah) was a massive shock, and a massive failure. The rest is painting lipstick on a pig, pure and simple.

I think we just see that conflict differently.

From what I read about the conflict at no point did the Hezbollah put up any sort of measured resistance. The Israelis out maneuvered them and tore them apart in every instance of combat. The only reason Hezbollah survived was by hiding and using guerrilla tactics. They didn't drive the Israelis out of anywhere. Israel left when the UN forced them to leave. Hezbollah had nothing to do with that withdrawal.


Cyrano Johnson

Quote from: Moraline on December 18, 2012, 01:19:44 PMFrom what I read about the conflict at no point did the Hezbollah put up any sort of measured resistance.

Haha yes we have definitely been reading different things about that conflict. But the thing is, if the things you've been reading were in fact correct, Israel never would have settled for as little as it did. It never would have allowed a UN-brokered peace if it was actually tearing up Hezbollah. The thing about propaganda is that it can warp accounts of events, but it can't actually change results.
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Moraline

Propaganda works both ways, Cyrano. I read the Wiki article and looked at the statistical facts. That's where I made my judgements from.

As for why Israel withdrew, it never wanted nor does it want to occupy any country other then the one that they claim. Why wouldn't they back out? The world was crying for them to stop and they bowed to political UN pressure. Has Hezbollah made any serious attacks against them since that time? No.

I'd say that means that they accomplished their goal.