War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[inkybus]

I wouldn't count on any successor to Putin being any nicer or less inclined to keep fighting. His biggest threat comes from the right, and they think he hasn't been tough enough on Ukraine.

I'm more optimistic in the sense that Putin's successor will see that crippling their own nation by letting so many young men needlessly die in enemy territory is not the way to make Russia a better country to live in. They're going to have a bit of difficulty getting new families if they continue sending able-bodied men to the meatgrinder.

Plus, you know, the whole thing about the smarter russians fleeing the country to somewhere they won't bleed out within a few months for a worthless cause, draining the pool of intellect and making the whole place dumber as a consequence.

[midnightblack]

I'm more optimistic in the sense that Putin's successor will see that crippling their own nation by letting so many young men needlessly die in enemy territory is not the way to make Russia a better country to live in. They're going to have a bit of difficulty getting new families if they continue sending able-bodied men to the meatgrinder.

Plus, you know, the whole thing about the smarter russians fleeing the country to somewhere they won't bleed out within a few months for a worthless cause, draining the pool of intellect and making the whole place dumber as a consequence.

One argument that I've seen floating around from several sources (I can't confirm it independently as it's just beyond my abilities) is that Russia is kinda screwed demographically either way. One of the justifications for invading Ukraine being that they somehow manage to bring several millions extra people in the country and postpone the inevitable by a few decades. Essentially that it's their last chance to die on their own terms, though that may be slightly over-dramatic. In any case, I doubt there's anyone left around breathing who would disagree with Putin and be in a position to have a chance at taking lead when one way or another he's out. I think we're well past the point where it even matters anymore. Regardless of what happens in Ukaine; they might as well conquer it completely tomorrow and be done with the whole war. Russian society is profoundly fucked and I don't really see a realistic way things can turn for the better without massive internal issues for them and likely for everyone around them.

[inkybus]

I know consequences for disobeying your commanding officers is supposed to be steep, but I don't know if this is the correct course of action.

The US says Russia is executing its own soldiers and has threatened entire units with execution for failing to obey orders.
National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby told reporters: “We have information that the Russian military has been actually executing soldiers who refuse to follow orders, we also have information that Russian commanders are threatening to execute entire units if they seek to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire.”

Source: CNN

[Al Terego]

It was the same under Stalin during WW2 .

[Chulanowa]

It was the same under Stalin during WW2 .

At the time rhey were fighting an enemy that professed the need to totally exterminate Slavs as a people though.

Little bit different from fighting people who want Russia to gtfo.

[Al Terego]

Not to Putin

[inkybus]

Who even needs an enemy if the people you are supposed to protect shoot you dead, instead?

[inkybus]

The mind behind the murder of a journalist gets pardoned after enlisting to fight against Ukraine for his country.

Not only did the ex-convict get in the good graces of his dictator for shutting up someone who was exposing Putin's war crimes, but he gets to have a second go at this whole murdering business!

What a disgrace.

[Al Terego]

I was surprised that a Russian court convicted him.

[Chulanowa]

So apparently there's an update on the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage

A senior Ukrainian military officer with deep ties to the country’s intelligence services played a central role in the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last year, according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation.

The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s special operations forces, was the “coordinator” of the Nord Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines. On Sept. 26, 2022, three explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The attack left only one of the four gas links in the network intact as winter approached.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

I think that the best part of the article is this line:

Chervinsky did not act alone

Was that ever a thought? Was there ever anyone who looked at this pipeline getting blown up 110 meters below the Baltic Sea and going "Hmm, must have been some lone wolf extreme swimmer!"

[Oniya]

Extreme swimmer is pretty much out of the question, but someone with access to one of those deep-sea camera rigs (documentary film style) could possibly rig up the necessaries.  (Technically, 'deep sea' starts around 200 meters, and off of the continental shelf.)  People have made solo crossings of the Atlantic (John Fairfax) and Pacific (Kenichi Horie), so one man in a sailboat crossing the Baltic is comparably easy to imagine.  Such a venture might even 'explain' the complicated equipment.  (Follow me on YouTube!)

Definitely easier with at least a small crew, but the actual tricky part is just getting the explosive in the right place.

[Azuresun]

So apparently there's an update on the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage

I think that the best part of the article is this line:


Was that ever a thought? Was there ever anyone who looked at this pipeline getting blown up 110 meters below the Baltic Sea and going "Hmm, must have been some lone wolf extreme swimmer!"

Just bear in mind the source is VERY unreliable. The Washington Post is heavily pro-Russia....oh, I'm sorry, heavily pro "sue for peace and let the Muscovites keep what they stole".

[Chulanowa]

That's genuinely the first time I've ever seen someone suggest that WaPo is "pro-Russian." I mean WaPo is right there saying the opposite of what you claim?

Maybe you're confusing it with the Washington Times? Very different outfits, I could see the Moonies going in for Russia.

 

[GloomCookie]

There are fears that the US Congress is going to stop funding the war in Ukraine despite assurances that we will continue to do so from the Biden administration. 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/21/politics/congress-israel-ukraine-aid-border/index.html

Would not surprise me given the current political climate but it would be a major disappointment.