government shut down

[gaggedLouise]

Too bad the vote can't be set as neatly as today's Azerbaijani election, where the incumbent preseident gave himself the victory before any election booths had opened, leading to a third term for him. Only the results were not just set, they also leaked...  :D

[Dashenka]

My girlfriend voted for that election here in London. She knew it would be pointless though :D

[Valthazar]

In the WSJ today, there's one article about the feud in Congress over the debt ceiling, while there are almost five about the economic pros/cons of continuing the $85 billion bond-buyback program at the Fed.  As much as I would like to believe that every government institution and bank are operating independently, I am also aware of the reality that the most influential global bankers and politicians are colluding behind the scenes - and using micro events (debt ceiling stalemate in the US Congress), as a pre-text for ushering in future monetary policy.

Janet Yellen was just nominated as the Chief of the Fed to follow Bernanke, and she has been a huge proponent of the Fed's bond buyback program.  This decision comes at the heels of the IMF and World Bank meeting, so as an investor, I am quite confident that the tides-behind-the-scenes are essentially to prolong this program, at least until 2015, maybe 2016.  Her nomination itself will calm many foreign countries about the health of their American assets, at least for the near-future.  Personally, I think bond-buybacks are an unsustainable model, but it is good that these events seem to suggest this will continue in the short-term.

[Vekseid]

If it gets too bad, I just figure people will start using an alternate currency (probably not a deflationary one, or one so obtuse/similarly stacked as bitcoin is).

[Dashenka]

Well if things go too bad, the US will drag the entire world economy with it back into another depression. We're just getting out of it.

[gaggedLouise]

Apparently there's at least some actual talking going on between Obama and some of the house republicans, with some possible openings to avoid the hangman's noose of a U.S. default and big stock exchange drops around the world. But still a long way to go.

[Valthazar]

I think we can be pretty confident that a deal will be reached, or else, there would have been no reason for Obama to nominate Yellen.  Obviously the terms of the budget are still up for negotiation, but chances are really good it will be settled by then.

[Dashenka]

I'm still baffled that there are still people saying that America is the world's most powerful country. Read an article today in the newspaper quoting a British parliament member who said that a deal must be made soon or else America's world leader status was at stake.

Well guess what... In my opinion the US government isn't any better or more democratic than the Azeri one. Or the Russian one. Or even the Iraqi one.

*moves to Scandinavia where politics are much nicer and easier*

[gaggedLouise]

I'm still baffled that there are still people saying that America is the world's most powerful country. Read an article today in the newspaper quoting a British parliament member who said that a deal must be made soon or else America's world leader status was at stake.

Well guess what... In my opinion the US government isn't any better or more democratic than the Azeri one. Or the Russian one. Or even the Iraqi one.

*moves to Scandinavia where politics are much nicer and easier*

Let's not make this into some kind of contest of the world's least corrupt and most properly democratic system. Present-day political wrangles in Scandinavia certainly have their downsides too - though they don't belong within this thread.

[kylie]

          I haven't heard much saying for sure that Republicans, as a whole, will do anything to end the shutdown.  (Though reportedly some more middle of the road ones wish to.)  The debt ceiling maybe yes, at least very temporarily -- in part, to feed the Tea Party some hope that they can do it all again later...  For some, that's a trick -- as they don't think the Tea Party can ever win -- but for others it's just what they want to hear. 

          But I'm afraid a few people are still hoping they can win by shouting, "Look!  We want to negotiate!  The president won't compromise!  We are the grownups and they are impolite and uncivil!  So we must be right!" 

Welcome to the new conservative ethics of argument:  If you can say the other side isn't trying to make you happy, never mind if your demands make no sense or simply lead to the end of the world-- if you can convince someone the other side is being rude (because you said so with enough whining), then you must be right.  Gaaaaags.

I'm still baffled that there are still people saying that America is the world's most powerful country. Read an article today in the newspaper quoting a British parliament member who said that a deal must be made soon or else America's world leader status was at stake.

Well guess what... In my opinion the US government isn't any better or more democratic than the Azeri one. Or the Russian one. Or even the Iraqi one.

          There are differences between being 'independently' powerful (as in being able to accomplish certain things yourself), being influential, being a leader on various issues, and being democratic.  I'm not sure you ever can have all of them at once.  Arguably, there have been plenty of times where the US has emphasized one or the other of these -- and sacrificed some of the others in the bargain. 
 
          I don't really care to play the nationalistic-sounding "who's just better" contest either.  (And is anyone listening to rather impartial sources?)  But fyi, if you're talking to Americans, most of them have no idea what the government in Azerbaijan is like.  Few of them could even tell you where that country is to begin with.  So there would be a lot of background discussion first.  Perhaps a better question...  How many Americans even follow the news about Iraqi politics?  I mean, aside from reports about how many Americans have died there in any given month, who has any idea who is who over there?  I would bet, not too many!

[Dashenka]

Let's not make this into some kind of contest of the world's least corrupt and most properly democratic system. Present-day political wrangles in Scandinavia certainly have their downsides too - though they don't belong within this thread.

Didn't want that. Just saying that to me, the American government has lost ALL it's credibility and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who thinks like that.

[alextaylor]

If it gets too bad, I just figure people will start using an alternate currency (probably not a deflationary one, or one so obtuse/similarly stacked as bitcoin is).

Well, you guys can start hoarding some Canadian dollars before the USD goes down :P

I think a lot of people have lost faith in the American economy.. I'm quite surprised the value hasn't gone down further since the shutdown.

[Hades]

It's ironic, but even with the government in partial shutdown and no deal in sight yet on the debt limit, that the Dow Jones index closed Friday with a gain of over 110 points. 

So despite the rampant stupidity and ideology in Washington right now, financially the US is still in pretty good shape in terms of people trusting the dollar.  How long that lasts remains to be seen though.

[kylie]

It's ironic, but even with the government in partial shutdown and no deal in sight yet on the debt limit, that the Dow Jones index closed Friday with a gain of over 110 points. 

So despite the rampant stupidity and ideology in Washington right now, financially the US is still in pretty good shape in terms of people trusting the dollar.  How long that lasts remains to be seen though.

          I don't know.  Sounds like you're concluding there is no relationship based on no evidence except abstract optimism in US capacities.  I would be more inclined to believe there is no relationship (or whatever) if you show a report that says why people think it may have gone up. 

There are also some recent reports that the shutdown may not last:  Which, perhaps, could be an alternative reason for markets to be happier.

[Chris Brady]

And to lighten up the topic, and yet, keep it appropriate, Combicon posted this in IRC:



Hopefully, this will bring a smile?

[Valthazar]

It's ironic, but even with the government in partial shutdown and no deal in sight yet on the debt limit, that the Dow Jones index closed Friday with a gain of over 110 points. 

So despite the rampant stupidity and ideology in Washington right now, financially the US is still in pretty good shape in terms of people trusting the dollar.  How long that lasts remains to be seen though.

This is because the US federal bankers have made it clear by their appointments right before IMF meeting that they plan to continue the bond buyback program.  That's the main reason why global financial markets are also slowly settling down after their initial shock a few days ago.  All this Democrat vs. Republican fighting is just an act for the media frenzy, and we all know that behind closed doors, a different set of discussions are taking place - and probably a lot of handshakes and pats on the back, even between the two parties.

[gaggedLouise]

People who are mortally ill have sometimes been known to be furiously active and sticking to their commitments, their planned work and the hours of daily work they had set...right up to the point when they finally collapsed - only to die a few weeks or days later.

I'd agree with Kylie that it's bizarre the stock indexes on financial firms are going up right at the time when the foundations of economy and banking are shaking, but I guess it shows those firms have only a limited link to the real economy, to production. And of course they are counting on a last-minute fix, a quick agreement.

[BraveEarth]

This is because the US federal bankers have made it clear by their appointments right before IMF meeting that they plan to continue the bond buyback program.  That's the main reason why global financial markets are also slowly settling down after their initial shock a few days ago.  All this Democrat vs. Republican fighting is just an act for the media frenzy, and we all know that behind closed doors, a different set of discussions are taking place - and probably a lot of handshakes and pats on the back, even between the two parties.

I hardly think that the government displaying such ineffectiveness would make for good false theatre for the public viewing. While it would be nice to think that all this idiocy is just for show that's instilling far above the level of competency and general cooperation in business and government than has been shown in present and past.

[Valthazar]

I'd agree with Kylie that it's bizarre the stock indexes on financial firms are going up right at the time when the foundations of economy and banking are shaking, but I guess it shows those firms have only a limited link to the real economy, to production. And of course they are counting on a last-minute fix, a quick agreement.

The stock price has more to do with investor confidence than the real economy.  The stock indexes going up just shows that most investors are confident that a deal will be figured out soon, so they are doing a lot of 'buying' of stocks right now, hoping for gains once a deal is sorted out.  This is inflating (or keeping level) the stock prices, even if the economic realities suggest a stock's true value is much lower.

[gaggedLouise]

The stock price has more to do with investor confidence than the real economy.  The stock indexes going up just shows that most investors are confident that a deal will be figured out soon, so they are doing a lot of 'buying' of stocks right now, hoping for gains once a deal is sorted out.  This is inflating (or keeping level) the stock prices, even if the economic realities suggest a stock's true value is much lower.

*nods* In particular, investor confidence has very little to do with whether some jobs, production and spending power of ordinary people relating to the assets of those firms, or of leading NYSE and Nasdaq listed corporations, will still be located in the United States - or if still more will get moved to China, Mexico, Thailand and India.

Or whether the deal would be reached before or after October 17, and how much breathing space it will give to attack the real problems underneath this crisis. No economy or political system can function healthily with a loaded gun to its head pretty much all the time.

[gaggedLouise]

Personally I don't think it's looking likely that there will be any viable deal on neither the government shutdown nor the debt ceiling before next week-end, at the earliest (and by then...). These guys just don't look like they could manage the kind of theatrical double-act we're looking for; the bloody-mindedness and tactical bullshit thinking are very real.

And the underlying issue of raising US state revenue (primarily...taxes) looks just as deadlocked, or even more. If you don't get money into the state's coffers through revenue to give space to do what the state proposes to do, should do, then of course you have to borrow...and probably print more money to stimulate the economy. Unless you want to see a race to the bottom in any kind of budget deliberations. Just shooting down a few fat cats within the public sector won't do the trick.

[Oniya]

Printing more money isn't going to help matters.  If anything, that will devalue the dollar even more.

[gaggedLouise]

Printing more money isn't going to help matters.  If anything, that will devalue the dollar even more.

*nods* It's like peeing in your boxers, isn't it? But it's less politically difficult to pump more dollars into the system than to raise taxes on the rich, or on corporations, improve tax collection, or try to create new jobs at home.

No, this isn't just a US problem for sure. It's basically the same in Britain and in a couple other places - even in Sweden, some of it. It's just the stakes being higher in America.

[Valthazar]

*nods* It's like peeing in your boxers, isn't it? But it's less politically difficult to pump more dollars into the system than to raise taxes on the rich, or on corporations, improve tax collection, or try to create new jobs at home.

No, this isn't just a US problem for sure. It's basically the same in Britain and in a couple other places - even in Sweden, some of it. It's just the stakes being higher in America.

What do you mean by, "less politically difficult to pump more dollars into the system than to try to create new jobs at home?"

The government doesn't create jobs, private businesses do.  I can tell you for a fact that if already hiring-timid businesses are stunned next year with a higher corporate tax, and already an increasing minimum wage, you'll see even more unemployment.  It all comes down to risk management, and a lot of companies are reducing their potential for risks (new hiring) when there are a lot of uncertainties in the business environment.  If you're a business owner, and you need to figure out your projected earnings report for next year with this new healthcare law, reducing in treasury stimulus, and just creeping out a tough recession, wouldn't you also be nervous about adding new hires and the liabilities that go with that?  Sometimes we need to give the economy time to reconfigure itself back to homeostasis.

With that being said, I have always been opposed to any sort of government backed bond buyback or stimulus program.  I agree with Oniya, and sometimes you just have to let the economy struggle before it rises.  My favorite part is how people think we are making an economic recovery based on stock market rises, but its largely due to $85 billion a month thrust into the economy.  Get ready for another market crash in next 2-3 years.  Your idea would be to extract $85 billion per month out of these same Wall Street Companies and firms, and yet expect their performance to be the same?

There are legitimate economic factors at play here, and one cannot simply chalk this up as Republicans being antagonistic, and there needs to be a dialogue where both perspectives are voiced.

[Oniya]

For a business in the lower echelons, I can see that.  What I have difficulty stomaching is upper echelon businesses (I'm looking at you, Walmart!) who really don't have to worry about a loss of business any time soon*, trying to figure out how they can keep contributing to Super-PACs that keep certain Congressmen in office despite their track records.  Perhaps corporate taxes need to be staggered the same way that individual taxes are staggered - assuming that they aren't already.




*(Although, Costco does seem to be giving them some competition both in the earnings department and in the treatment of employees.)