Corruption within the Chinese military: Why China might not invade Taiwan

[GloomCookie]

I stumbled across a video that was exploring the implications of a Bloomburg report stating that China's military is rife with corruption, including their major missiles filled with water, missile silos being unable to even open, and major figures within the CCP being disappeared for their role in the situation. This could lead to a situation where China is unable to launch any invasion of Taiwan and how it affects China's foreign policy.

I admit I know very little about China, so I'm curious about how others here feel about this situation. I'd like to know if this is off-kilter or if it's indicative of other major problems within the Chinese Communist Party that could hamper their future endeavors going forward.

[Oniya]

To provide some context/sourcing, I was able to locate this article in Business Insider.  The article does hedge a bit, stating that Bloomberg (the initial media source, which is behind an 'account wall') was quoting unnamed sources 'in US Intelligence' - I'm not sure how (or if) any of the mechanical issues have been verified.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1

[Callie Del Noire]

To provide some context/sourcing, I was able to locate this article in Business Insider.  The article does hedge a bit, stating that Bloomberg (the initial media source, which is behind an 'account wall') was quoting unnamed sources 'in US Intelligence' - I'm not sure how (or if) any of the mechanical issues have been verified.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1

Well the PLa was always corrupt as all get out. Culturally a tradition. Thing is China has spent time since the 80s stealing tech and building their military for a blockade of the Taiwanese islands. The bought a carrier and Russian subs for fortifying their navy in preparation of defending the PLA against the US navy. 

[Missy]

I'm honestly not certain China could effectively launch an invasion of Taiwan, they might pretend they can and they might get a standoff out of it, or they might just embarass themsleves. I don't think Tian is going to stop being an independent anytime soon.

I'm honestly a lot more worried about Hong Kong on account all they need to do is send troops in to assert their dominance - and they are planning on doing just that.

[Wing]

Perun on YouTube has a good breakdown of the Chinese corruption scandal. He makes a few very good points:

- To fill something with water is a euphemism for general dishonesty linked to shady practices in the meat industry. After translation and being passed between multiple sources not identified in the report, it may not mean the missiles are literally filled with water. 

- Silo doors being unable to open is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. China has other delivery systems than silos (e.g. road mobile launchers) and it hasn't got the missile fleet to actually fill all of its silos. 

- Xi has a bee in his bonnet about corruption, and disappearing even quite senior military commanders is nothing new for authoritarian regimes. It's not possible to confirm if they were removed for corruption or just as a part of the CCP's internal politicking. 

That said, China's rocket forces are going to play a minimal role in any Taiwanese invasion. That's going to be almost entirely in the hands of the PLAN, who (ignoring corruption) just aren't prepared. Their main focus is on modernisation, but they're not going to be even close to finishing that until the 2030s. That means an amphibious assault on a modern military (and US ally), by a navy with no prior experience at landing operations, whose current focus is on aircraft carriers which will be of little use invading an island already comfortably within reach of mainland Chinese airbases. 

In short, it's interesting but I don't think it will make much difference to a China's foreign policy in the next ten years.

[Chulanowa]

I mean it could be that China's not invading Taiwan for the same reason it's spent seventy-five years also not invading Taiwan. Which basically amounts to "China has no interest in invading Taiwan."

While obviously the PRC does have an interest in gaining political control of Taiwan (and nearby islands) it stands to reason that a military campaign there would simply be pointless; the PRC would win handily, of course, but it would result in a lot of destruction on the island, a protracted counter-resistance campaign in the mountains, and would of course do nothing at all to ingratiate the people living there. It would be a disastrous victory. Every reason for wanting the island would basically be blown to hell, and establishing control over the wreckage would just be more trouble than it's worth.

And that's all without counting in the fact that it would mean a war with the US as well. While the PRC could probably win that war (or at least, outlast American efforts) it would of course be wildly destructive to everyone... like literally everyone as this would be an effective WW3, and I'm very confident that China really doesn't want to be center stage of that one.

Sort of the same reason the US doesn't invade Beijing - Oh sorry Beiping - to "restore" the RoC government. it'd be insane and pointless and massively destructive and the only gain would be to go "Hey I won a seven-decade argument before the planet was nuked to hell." 

Instead, China can just... exist, and it will eventually get what it wants. Taiwan has no apparent interest in being an independent country, as displayed by the perennial failure of independence movements and political parties. At the same time it's pretty obvious that at no point will the Republic of China make its "triumphant reclamation of the mainland." Taipei's role as a US client also has a definite expiration date as well. Realistically the end outcome of the Island of Taiwan is reproachment with Beijing resulting in Taiwan becoming an SAR akin to Hong Kong. 

Why blow it up in a war when you can just absorb it with time?