War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Beorning]

Speaking of Western Europe's iffy attitude toward sanctions, I've read that the Italian PM made sure that Italian luxury products won't fall under any export embargo. Meaning, Russia is waging a war against Ukraine... but Italy is still concerned whether Russian oligarchs would be able to buy the proverbial Gucci slippers.

Seriously, Italy? That's your priority now?

BTW. It's also very telling how major sports organizations (UEFA, FIFA, FIS...) are unwilling to recognize what's happening. Similar to how the Olympic Commitee refused to be concern with Chinese civil rights abuses... It all shows how corrupt and money-oriented all these organizations are. They should be all dismantled, IMHO, for their total lack of moral compass.

[midnightblack]

Idk, this war might not be as one sided as we previously thought. The Russian Military has been completely embarrassed on the world stage, they attempted shock and awe tactics only to be pushed back at every major objective or VDV deployment.

Granted 2nd echelon troops have yet to reinforce the front but from what we can tell it didn't seem like Russia expected the 2nd echelon to need to do much other than provide some minimal reinforcement and pull security/anti-partisan duty but things are looking a lot better for the Ukrainians than anyone predicted.

Funny what a military that has been preparing for this exact scenario basically since their independence can do when push finally comes to shove.

I doubt the picture is so clear cut, specifically regarding your last sentence. One of the main reasons Ukraine is in this situation to begin with is due to its political hesitation over the decades since its independence and its failure to commit to one direction or another. Both the Ukrainian elites and the Ukrainian people as a whole are split between West and East sympathies. And that goes without even touching on all of the ethnic and territorial ambiguities. They are quite a mixed bag as a people, minorities don't really have the rights they would deserve and many border territories would, at least on the grounds of the local population, belong more naturally within other neighboring countries. This whole mess is the aftermath of World War II and the collapse of the USSR. I don't say it as a justification of any sort for what is happening, but it's a reality.

I do agree with you on the first points though. Judging by Putin's recent declarations, which are stupefying to say the least, I would guess they've taken greater casualties than anticipated. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has reported as high as 2800 Russian casualties, which is severe if true. The British estimated about 450 casualties, but that was only for the first day of the invasion. There can't really be a military victory for Ukraine in a straight-up fight, they are simply outgunned and out-manned by a very large margin, but if they put up a fierce resistance, Putin will end up winning the battle and losing the war. Though the second point is largely redundant by now. He was never to gain anything tangible from this endeavor anyway.

BTW. It's also very telling how major sports organizations (UEFA, FIFA, FIS...) are unwilling to recognize what's happening. Similar to how the Olympic Commitee refused to be concern with Chinese civil rights abuses... It all shows how corrupt and money-oriented all these organizations are. They should be all dismantled, IMHO, for their total lack of moral compass.

Well, I believe both a UEFA final and a Grand Prix that were to be staged in Russia have been cancelled and/or moved to other places. I guess there's a hard breaking point even for moral flexibility.

[Beorning]

Well, I believe both a UEFA final and a Grand Prix that were to be staged in Russia have been cancelled and/or moved to other places. I guess there's a hard breaking point even for moral flexibility.

Yeah, but the UEFA final was moved out of Russia only after a lot of pressure... Also, UEFA, FIFA etc. are really insisting on not calling spade a spade - they only mention a "situation between Russia and Ukraine", as if it was some sort of small border dispute, not an invasion of a peaceful country by an authoritarian regime.

What these organizations should do, is suspend Russia's membership while the war goes on. But the keep claiming "Nooo, can't do that, we're apolitical!". Disgusting...

[Lustful Bride]

The costs are continuing to rise for Russia. Despite their setbacks, the Ukranians have somehow conducted a strike on the Russian airbase of Millerovo in Rostov.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-military-base-blown-up-as-ukraine-fights-back/ar-AAUhxzA?ocid=undefined


Not sure if they did it with remnants of their Navy, a lucky Airforce strike, or even some commandos.

[Leon Weber]

looks like Russia is threatening Sweden and Finland now after literally being the main reason they're considering joining NATO

https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-military-ops-in-ukraine-finland-nato-marin/
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-sends-bone-chilling-message-to-sweden-threatens-with-military-implications-if-they-go-the-ukraine-way/

[WhatLiesAbove]

Last night, Putin basically threatened nuclear retaliation to anyone who might interfere with the current war in Ukraine.

[Humble Scribe]

Idk, this war might not be as one sided as we previously thought. The Russian Military has been completely embarrassed on the world stage, they attempted shock and awe tactics only to be pushed back at every major objective or VDV deployment.
Granted 2nd echelon troops have yet to reinforce the front but from what we can tell it didn't seem like Russia expected the 2nd echelon to need to do much other than provide some minimal reinforcement and pull security/anti-partisan duty but things are looking a lot better for the Ukrainians than anyone predicted.

I'd be surprised if more than 1/3 of Russian combat troops have been engaged as yet. Maneuvering battlegroups along congested road networks takes time. This is not Iraq where everyone can drive across miles of empty desert. I fully agree that so far the Ukrainians are doing better than expected, but as I say, the Russians so far have not deployed large scale artillery, presumably to avoid civilian casualties and bad headlines. If they get stuck, they may well reach for the big stick.

[Leon Weber]

Last night, Putin basically threatened nuclear retaliation to anyone who might interfere with the current war in Ukraine.

Yeah this is the unfortunate reality of authoritarian strongman type leaders with access to nuclear arsenals.

He's been absolutely embarrassed in the face of the world at the piss poor performance of his military invasion of Ukraine and in order to prevent further embarrassment and keep up his strong man persona he's now threatening people with the trump card in his deck.

He threatened Sweden and Finland with retaliation as well if they join NATO, yet he is the exact reason they are joining NATO. I wonder what goes in the heads of these people, when they get angry at others for taking measures to protect themselves because of ones own actions.

[Lustful Bride]

Our of curiosity, how likely does it seem that Sweden and Finland will actually join NATO because of this? Are there any other nations which might decide to do the same?

[Leon Weber]

I'd be surprised if more than 1/3 of Russian combat troops have been engaged as yet. Maneuvering battlegroups along congested road networks takes time. This is not Iraq where everyone can drive across miles of empty desert. I fully agree that so far the Ukrainians are doing better than expected, but as I say, the Russians so far have not deployed large scale artillery, presumably to avoid civilian casualties and bad headlines. If they get stuck, they may well reach for the big stick.

It can still be surmised that Putin did not expect the Ukrainians to handle what he threw at them initially so readily, his behavior last evening also seems to indicate this with his blustering and vague threats that resemble threats of nuclear retaliation against anyone who stands in his way and protests already breaking out at home. I think he expected a rather quick blitz and then to spend most of his time putting down Partisan efforts in Ukraine.

Also I think Putin was expecting more of an open statement of support from China who they've been growing closer to, only to have China not do that.

[Leon Weber]

Our of curiosity, how likely does it seem that Sweden and Finland will actually join NATO because of this? Are there any other nations which might decide to do the same?

With Sweden it seems pretty likely, they've kind of always been just on the edge of NATO aligned their military with the exception of the weapons they produce for themselves namely the Gripen Multirole Fighter and the ARCHER Artillery System and alot of their naval vessels has been provided by NATO for a long time.

Finland is up in the air but of all the Finns i've talked to it sounds like joining NATO is the popular option with the people.

[Sara Nilsson]

With Sweden it seems pretty likely, they've kind of always been just on the edge of NATO aligned their military with the exception of the weapons they produce for themselves namely the Gripen Multirole Fighter and the ARCHER Artillery System and alot of their naval vessels has been provided by NATO for a long time.

Finland is up in the air but of all the Finns i've talked to it sounds like joining NATO is the popular option with the people.

We always been rather split on joining or not joining. Last poll I saw was 37% for joining, and 35% no. I think most of us Swedes would prefer to be neutral and from the ones I know that are for NATO it is only due to Putin. If he where to go away I expect the % to drop like a rock. We are proud of our independence and neutrality. But we also realize we are a small nation..

[Leon Weber]

We always been rather split on joining or not joining. Last poll I saw was 37% for joining, and 35% no. I think most of us Swedes would prefer to be neutral and from the ones I know that are for NATO it is only due to Putin. If he where to go away I expect the % to drop like a rock. We are proud of our independence and neutrality. But we also realize we are a small nation..

Of course, I'm not trying to imply that Sweden is by default going to join, but they are the more likely of the two to join and of course joining NATO is the pragmatic thing to do with a violent nation right on your doorstep. But Sweden has traditionally been neutral, but they have also maintained close ties with NATO which is why most of your military equipment is NATO standard.

[Leon Weber]

Taken from live UA Maps

[Sara Nilsson]

Of course, I'm not trying to imply that Sweden is by default going to join, but they are the more likely of the two to join and of course joining NATO is the pragmatic thing to do with a violent nation right on your doorstep. But Sweden has traditionally been neutral, but they have also maintained close ties with NATO which is why most of your military equipment is NATO standard.

True. But we also use NATO standard as we sell arms to NATO countries (or at least try to). But yes, we are muuuch closer to NATO.

And before someone say it, yes our neutrality has always come with an asterisk. I mean when you are the small guy you kinda have to. We  did our warring across Europe and got it out of our system. Sorry about the mess.

[Leon Weber]

True. But we also use NATO standard as we sell arms to NATO countries (or at least try to). But yes, we are muuuch closer to NATO.

And before someone say it, yes our neutrality has always come with an asterisk. I mean when you are the small guy you kinda have to. We  did our warring across Europe and got it out of our system. Sorry about the mess.

If it makes you feel better, i'd buy some Gripens if I had a few hundred million just laying around.

And yeah small country politics always involves cozying up to a degree to those bigger than you are, and tbf Swedens armed forces are mostly equipped for the kind of war you'd end up fighting against an invader. Shoot and scoot tactics, planes that take off from rural dirt roads in the back country and those that can take off out of mountain bunkers, the ARCHER artillery system is the ultimate shoot and scoot system while still having a big gun mounted on it. Good stuff.

As for your warring across Europe well I'm sure Ukraine wouldn't mind some Karoliner type Russian ass kicking right about now.

[Vekseid]

The Russians are moving into Kyiv at this moment: https://twitter.com/prm_ua/status/1497336708257484804?cxt=HHwWiMC4zbHzzccpAAAA

They are committing their second echelon forces. Zelensky says Russia is going to try to take Kyiv tonight.

US intelligence believes there is a solid chance Kyiv will fall within the next couple days. This is really up to the perseverance and preparation of the people of Kyiv at this point.

Zelensky has also called for the US and NATO to close the skies over Ukraine. I don't think that will be in the cards for some time, unfortunately. Though once that happens, I imagine there will be enforcement of the no-fly zone against armor a la Libya.

How is that "rational" for Putin ??? ?

I mean, the West would have counted this as "invasion of Ukraine" all the same and the sanctions would have been the same. If you're getting the same deal regardless of what you do, why do less?
And of course, even if Biden wanted to count Russian troops getting into the separatist republics as something less than an invasion (and it seemed like it), he wouldn't have been allowed to.

Because it's a peace Putin could have sued for and probably gotten.

While Zelensky wants to discuss peace, Russia is pulling a lot of bullshit to get them. Hold the talks in Belarus as a 'neutral' country. Delay until Sunday when Russia may be holding Kyiv.

I totally believe that if Kyiv holds out, Russia will come up with some other bullshit excuse.

[Lustful Bride]

My heart goes out to all the brave LGBT+ Ukranian soldiers currently fighting for their lives against Putin's invasion. If/when Russia conquers them, you just know he will force his bullshit anti-LGBT laws on Ukraine and make their lives hell.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-gay-combat-volunteers-are-ready-to-fight-for-their-lives-against-anti-lgbtq-putin/ar-AAUjQuA?ocid=msedgntp

[Beorning]

We  did our warring across Europe and got it out of our system.

*ekhem*

;)

The Russians are moving into Kyiv at this moment: https://twitter.com/prm_ua/status/1497336708257484804?cxt=HHwWiMC4zbHzzccpAAAA

They are committing their second echelon forces. Zelensky says Russia is going to try to take Kyiv tonight.

Speaking of Zelensky - I admit my respect for him is really growing. He knows that he's the Russians' primary target - and yet, it seems he's still in Kiyv. I wonder if he ever imagined being in this spot back when he was running for presidency... Anyway, he's showing some real statesmanship now.

I also caught bits of the interview CNN (I think?) did with the ex-president Poroshenko. Quite a sight - isn't Poroshenko a rich man? And yet, he's still in Kiyv, Kalashnikov rifle in hand, among volunteer soldiers, apparently ready to fight...

And of course, the mayor of Kiyv, the former boxing champion Klitschko is there, too. And he also seems intent to fight personally...

[Leon Weber]

*ekhem*

;)

Speaking of Zelensky - I admit my respect for him is really growing. He knows that he's the Russians' primary target - and yet, it seems he's still in Kiyv. I wonder if he ever imagined being in this spot back when he was running for presidency... Anyway, he's showing some real statesmanship now.

I also caught bits of the interview CNN (I think?) did with the ex-president Poroshenko. Quite a sight - isn't Poroshenko a rich man? And yet, he's still in Kiyv, Kalashnikov rifle in hand, among volunteer soldiers, apparently ready to fight...

And of course, the mayor of Kiyv, the former boxing champion Klitschko is there, too. And he also seems intent to fight personally...

Fucking heroes every single one of them, and the Ukrainian UN Ambassador has been giving the Russian Ambassador a tongue lashing for like 30 minutes now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm9y9vP9xZw

[TheHangedOne]

https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-went-russian-embassy-express-concern-over-war-moscow-envoy-2022-02-25/

I'm curious what, if anything, will come of the Pope getting involved. Of course, I hope it helps the people of Ukraine.

[Leon Weber]

https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-went-russian-embassy-express-concern-over-war-moscow-envoy-2022-02-25/

I'm curious what, if anything, will come of the Pope getting involved. Of course, I hope it helps the people of Ukraine.

considering Russia is mostly Eastern Orthodox, not much.

[midnightblack]

And before someone say it, yes our neutrality has always come with an asterisk. I mean when you are the small guy you kinda have to. We  did our warring across Europe and got it out of our system. Sorry about the mess.

Specifically, the evolution towards the status held by Sweden today began with the dissolution of their empire after being defeated by the Russians at around the start of the XVIIIth century. In my opinion, there's no point or relevance at present in apologizing, even as humorous note, for events or political attitudes so far behind. Humanity has changed dramatically over the centuries and the way we understand society today as a whole is quite different even from the perception of some 30 years ago. The only issue lies with retrogrades holding no perspective for the future, but being drunk on past glories.

In regard to being in or out of NATO, obviously it ultimately depends on what course of action would serve one's people best. My country would still be in the dark  ages and under Russia's heel without direct military support from the United States. We've participated in Afghanistan after 9/11 because alliances go both ways, and I believe we've earned a measure of trust and respect that way. They'll be quite handy in the days to come if things continue to evolve as of present. That is, towards another cold war of sorts with an outcome that is already known, but during which the people with big guns will likely sleep a lot better than the people without them.

[Vekseid]

A US official estimates Russia has committed 50% of its deployed troops. They appear to still lack even air superiority.

Some reports are suggesting Russia has halted its armor advance (with fuel and supply issues...) and is now trying a chaos strategy by paratrooping forces in wherever... which quickly get apprehended if the planes aren't actually shot down. If this is serious I am not sure what the purpose is. Carpetkrieg? Attack everywhere at once?

[Leon Weber]

A US official estimates Russia has committed 50% of its deployed troops. They appear to still lack even air superiority.

Some reports are suggesting Russia has halted its armor advance (with fuel and supply issues...) and is now trying a chaos strategy by paratrooping forces in wherever... which quickly get apprehended if the planes aren't actually shot down. If this is serious I am not sure what the purpose is. Carpetkrieg? Attack everywhere at once?

Russias logistical chain during this whole affair has been a mess, lots of Russian hardware with supply issues just on the side of the road, the VDV has been getting yeeted almost every time they turn around. Russia keeps saying Zerensky has fled to dishearten the Ukrainians and Zerensky responds by taking selfies and recording videos from the streets of Kyiv.

I don't think anyone, Russia or the Western World expected Ukraines resistance to be not just this fierce, but this well fought. Russias morale isn't doing so great and there was a video of a woman walking around giving Russian soldiers sunflower seeds so "something will grow over their corpses".

From Putin's perspective this is nothing short of a massive international embarrassment.